Week 8 - Dec 25 to 31

[JellyBean]

Watkins left the game with a leg injury at ending of UCLA/USC……

Darn cable went out the last few minutes of the 4th quarter.

 

[Bone Dog]

After the USC-UCLA game I'm not sure if I should revise my initial estimation of USC upwards or that of UCLA downwards. However that's decided, Watkins has certainly demonstrated that she can play against top competition.

 

[JellyBean]

It was a cramp. She was reaching down and pulling her toes up after she went down. She returned to the huddle during the final timeout with 5 seconds left and was mad they didn't put her back in the game. She played really hard, as did everyone else on the two teams.

I think Juju played the whole game. I missed the last few minutes of the game. I really enjoy these "ugly" type games. You find out so much about players and the mental and physical side of a player. Juju is going to be nice. Both teams played hard and gave it 120%.

 

[Plebe]

Fun fact: Massey predicted a 71-63 win for UCLA, only one point off the actual final score of 71-64.

 

[Plebe]

I think Juju played the whole game. I missed the last few minutes of the game. I really enjoy these "ugly" type games. You find out so much about players and the mental and physical side of a player. Juju is going to be nice. Both teams played hard and gave it 120%.

She played 38 minutes overall. Pretty sure it was the whole game except for the end when she left with the apparent cramp.

 

[Vowelguy]

Tough to win when 2 players are nearly 80% of your points. Juju and Forbes were 50 of the 64 pts.

Combined the two teams shot under 34% on 2s. Oy!

 

[LoTrader]

Osborne's defense on Watkins was fantastic. Box score says Watkins only had 3 turnovers--that's generous. I think Watkins had at least 5 turnovers. Watkins was 7-24. The difference in the game as I saw it was Osborne's defense on Watkins, and Gottlieb's lousy offense that essentially was 1 vs 5 featuring Watkins trying to do it all herself. McKenzie Forbes for USC was brilliant and Gottlieb needs to feature Forbes as much as Watkins. I think Close was the better coach in this game.

 

[GamecockFam]

There were four teams in the top 10 that I've had trouble deciding if they were ranked too high and I think this weekend helped me get a better feel for most of them. Baylor, Colorado, NC State, and USC all felt like they somewhat benefitted from external circumstances that propelled them into the top 10 (easy schedules, teams ahead in the rankings losing, player injuries, beating over-ranked teams in preseason polls, etc.).

NC State's wins are looking better and better with Colorado beating Utah and UConn starting to rebound from early season struggles, so I'm starting to believe they're a title contender.

Colorado's win over Utah also tells me that their win against LSU wasn't a fluke. I think the Utah win definitely solidified their top 10 status in my mind.

USC looks like a much improved team but they need more firepower to beat the best of the PAC12. Juju is too young to carry the team on her shoulders for 40 minutes. I think she needs an off-season of strength training to prepare her for the role she has been thrust into. I think USC looks like a top 25 team, but on the lower end in the 16-25 range. If I was a betting man I would wager that they will finish fourth or fifth in the PAC12. Additionally, Ohio State is looking overrated, so the quality of that win is diminishing in retrospect.

Baylor does look good but I wish Texas had a healthy Harmon because without Harmon it's hard to decide how good of a win they just earned. The Big 12 also looks like they're having a down year, so it's going to be hard gauging those teams against the rest of the country. They're the only remaining team in the top 10 that I don't have a good feel for.

Thoughts?

 

[visitingcock]

UCLA beats UCLA 70-63 at UCLA. Not a pretty game but interesting to watch. They really got after each other, and I think that's what made it seem so ragged at times. USC did a terrific job limiting Betts most of the night. The Bruin guards, Jones and Rice, were very good as was JuJu Watkins. Mackenzie Forbes, the Harvard transfer, also did some nice work for the Trojans.

First time in 40 years they've played each other while both are ranked in the Top 10.

13,859 attendance. How long has it been since a PAC CONFERENCE game had attendance that topped that?

Ever?

 

[Darwin]

There were four teams in the top 10 that I've had trouble deciding if they were ranked too high and I think this weekend helped me get a better feel for most of them. Baylor, Colorado, NC State, and USC all felt like they somewhat benefitted from external circumstances that propelled them into the top 10 (easy schedules, teams ahead in the rankings losing, player injuries, beating over-ranked teams in preseason polls, etc.).

NC State's wins are looking better and better with Colorado beating Utah and UConn starting to rebound from early season struggles, so I'm starting to believe they're a title contender.

Colorado's win over Utah also tells me that their win against LSU wasn't a fluke. I think the Utah win definitely solidified their top 10 status in my mind.

USC looks like a much improved team but they need more firepower to beat the best of the PAC12. Juju is too young to carry the team on her shoulders for 40 minutes. I think she needs an off-season of strength training to prepare her for the role she has been thrust into. I think USC looks like a top 25 team, but on the lower end in the 16-25 range. If I was a betting man I would wager that they will finish fourth or fifth in the PAC12. Additionally, Ohio State is looking overrated, so the quality of that win is diminishing in retrospect.

Baylor does look good but I wish Texas had a healthy Harmon because without Harmon it's hard to decide how good of a win they just earned. The Big 12 also looks like they're having a down year, so it's going to be hard gauging those teams against the rest of the country. They're the only remaining team in the top 10 that I don't have a good feel for.

Thoughts?

Great post. I agree on almost all of this and was having similar thoughts on all fronts. USCw looks like a team too dependent on just 1-2 players without scoring depth behind them, they will drop more games. OSU was expecting much from McMahon and she has been a no show so far, they look lesser than expected, Iowa should win the B12 easily imo. Unfortunately for Utah injuries have surfaced and they are not the same team as last season. The PAC12 is so competitive this season they along with USCw will face more losses. Colo is intriguing but I doubt they get through conference play without 3-4 losses, which is still a good season but is it top 10 worthy by seasons end?

As for the B12, with Harmon I think Texas was a contender. They may still win the B12, Baylor has several deficiencies that have not bitten them yet but I don’t see a top ten team when I watch them, they may end up top ten if they run through the B12 easily but they are not big enough or deep enough imo to finish the season as strong as they have started, certainly not to make a run in the tourney versus anyone with skilled size.

I think NCSU comes back down to earth to an extent as the season progresses. They have been impressive so far, but this is the one team in the top 4-10 that looks ripe for a little pullback in expectations. Maybe they are just a more than the sum of the parts type team but I could see them easily fall off a bit.

Uconn is not dead yet. They may run their conference and if so an upset win at SC in Feb puts them back in the conversation, though I don’t see them as a championship caliber team given their lack of depth also now due to injuries.

This looks like a race between UCLA, Iowa, SC and LSU to cut the nets. Just my early opinion, and it’s all subject to change. I don’t have any concerns about UCLA, as far as glaring weaknesses. Iowa still relies heavily on Clark at 38% usage rate, tops in nation, but if one player deserves that kind of usage it’s her. SC has one huge weakness, they are near the bottom of teams in FT% and we all know how that can bite a team in close games, esp in the tourney.

Geno and Uconn will exploit that to make their game interesting if it is close in the fourth Come February, he did it last season to pull close at the end. LSU‘s schedule so far leaves me knowing less about them than all other teams, and I do think the loss of their center was a huge blow, but I can also see that team, with their parts, being really good even against great teams. Like last season, you have to keep them in the equation, super talent on that squad. They only get SC once this season, and at home, that’s big. There is room for both SC and LSU to get 1 seeds if the ACC champ falls out of the top 6 or so imo. apologize for the long writeup, thoughts were rambling this morning.

 

[LETTERL]

Texas is more than Rori Harmon, and they didn't have Taylor Jones. I was impressed with the fight they put up against Baylor.

 

[HuskyFan1125]

Anyone watch the LSU/Jacksonville game? Jacksonville had 39 fouls called on them and 3 starters fouled out!! I had to do a double take. LSU had 25 themselves but no DQs.

 

[nickp91]

USC vs UCLA was definitely worth the hype

 

[JellyBean]

Tough to win when 2 players are nearly 80% of your points. Juju and Forbes were 50 of the 64 pts.

Combined the two teams shot under 34% on 2s. Oy!

So true. I watched a couple of USC's games this year and they had a better balanced in scoring and shot better. But you have games where you can't miss and games where you can't make a bucket. They play again in a few weeks.

 

[JellyBean]

Anyone watch the LSU/Jacksonville game? Jacksonville had 39 fouls called on them and 3 starters fouled out!! I had to do a double take. LSU had 25 themselves but no DQs.

I will definitely be checking YouTube for that game. 39 foul calls?

 

[Bone Dog]

Great posts, @visitingcock and @Darwin. A lot to think about in them, especially that conference play will shake some teams out of their current rankings. I’m wondering about Baylor and tOSU.

I agree that Baylor doesn’t have the size or the depth to make a deep run in March. But I respect Coach Collin a lot and she could engineer some surprises. That said, I doubt they could have defeated Texas with Rori healthy. The depth/size issues resemble UConn’s and they have a couple of key small guards in Andrews and Walker, and an intense but undersized frontcourt with Dre, Fontleroy and Littlepage-Buggs. Of course, there’s no one quite on the level of Aaliyah Aubrey or Paige at the core of their lineup. But coach Collin’s choices down the road may be interesting to compare to what Geno does.

tOSU is also an interesting case and I am intrigued by their struggles. Sheldon is playing her heart out and has had some monster games. But the loss of Mikesell is significant for them. Also, McMahon had a tremendous freshman season, but it relied mainly on great intensity on both ends of the court and a rather limited offensive skill set. She’s built for a transition-style offense like tOSU. Her main offensive move is to bull her way to the rim, typically with a reverse spin to the left. Michigan defended against this. If more teams can weather the storm of her initial onslaught, she (and tOSU) can struggle.

Michigan defeated them with a not too stellar lineup by drawing several offensive fouls including two in quick succession on McMahon in the first quarter. There was some irony in seeing Michigan defeat tOSU with defense but relying only on halfcourt defense. They also limited Thierry’s touches.

I am also struck by how Mikulasikova is not always a factor in games. TOSU often plays a short lineup for their press and she sits out for stretches. But I notice that she seems to have gotten into noticeably better shape since last season. If her conditioning has improved enough, she might be on the floor for more of the press that could be significant. I really didn’t expect Michigan to have an answer for tOSU’s offense. On the positive side, it looks like McMahon is trying to develop her midrange shooting. If she succeeds, tOSU may overcome these early season struggles. She may be the key piece of the puzzle for them.

Sorry for the rambling comment. My thoughts on tOSU are still in process.

 

[Darwin]

Great posts, @visitingcock and @Darwin. A lot to think about in them, especially that conference play will shake some teams out of their current rankings. I’m wondering about Baylor and tOSU.

I agree that Baylor doesn’t have the size or the depth to make a deep run in March. But I respect Coach Collin a lot and she could engineer some surprises. That said, I doubt they could have defeated Texas with Rori healthy. The depth/size issues resemble UConn’s and they have a couple of key small guards in Andrews and Walker, and an intense but undersized frontcourt with Dre, Fontleroy and Littlepage-Buggs. Of course, there’s no one quite on the level of Aaliyah Aubrey or Paige at the core of their lineup. But coach Collin’s choices down the road may be interesting to compare to what Geno does.

tOSU is also an interesting case and I am intrigued by their struggles. Sheldon is playing her heart out and has had some monster games. But the loss of Mikesell is significant for them. Also, McMahon had a tremendous freshman season, but it relied mainly on great intensity on both ends of the court and a rather limited offensive skill set. She’s built for a transition-style offense like tOSU. Her main offensive move is to bull her way to the rim, typically with a reverse spin to the left. Michigan defended against this. If more teams can weather the storm of her initial onslaught, she (and tOSU) can struggle.

Michigan defeated them with a not too stellar lineup by drawing several offensive fouls including two in quick succession on McMahon in the first quarter. There was some irony in seeing Michigan defeat tOSU with defense but relying only on halfcourt defense. They also limited Thierry’s touches.

I am also struck by how Mikulasikova is not always a factor in games. TOSU often plays a short lineup for their press and she sits out for stretches. But I notice that she seems to have gotten into noticeably better shape since last season. If her conditioning has improved enough, she might be on the floor for more of the press that could be significant. I really didn’t expect Michigan to have an answer for tOSU’s offense. On the positive side, it looks like McMahon is trying to develop her midrange shooting. If she succeeds, tOSU may overcome these early season struggles. She may be the key piece of the puzzle for them.

Sorry for the rambling comment. My thoughts on tOSU are still in process.

Let’s “hypothocize” a bit Bone Dog. Say UCONN runs the conference slate. Then let’s look at two possibilities. First, they get the upset @ SC in Feb. I think that scenario gets the Huskies a one seed even with the 3 losses after knocking off the top team at home. Second, they play a close game @SC and lose, then UCONN ends the season with 4 losses, but is it still out of the realm of possibilities they are in play for a one seed? I ask because UCONN‘s sos is so high and even with 4 losses they might be in play if as expected there are no undefeated or maybe even 1-2 loss teams by seasons end. Something to ponder.

I don’t see UCONN getting through the tourney for another ship this year even if all that happens btw, the injury bug was brutal again as we know and the toll by seasons end will surface imo. But I can see the Huskies running through the conference and even pulling the upset at SC with a few breaks. If the game is close late in the 4th, Geno will duplicate last year’s strategy annd keep sending SC to the FT line, he knows their greatest weakness as he knows for all teams he plays. Anything after that is possible and why they play the games.

 

[Plebe]

Anyone watch the LSU/Jacksonville game? Jacksonville had 39 fouls called on them and 3 starters fouled out!! I had to do a double take. LSU had 25 themselves but no DQs.

My friend in Baton Rouge texted me that the Jacksonville coach got a double technical and was ejected.

 

[Hester42]

Any game with nearly 70 foul calls has to be miserable and not enjoyable. That seems ridiculous all around. I'm sure fouls happened but nearly 70 fouls worth of calls? Doubt it.

Officiating in men and women basketball leave a lot to be desired these days

 

[Darwin]

My friend in Baton Rouge texted me that the Jacksonville coach got a double technical and was ejected.

The drama around all games and things LSU this season even against lowly ranked teams is going to come back and bite them against really good teams down the road, their psyche right now is being programmed wrong imo, this team will bust a gasket in games where things don’t go their way against great competition, which might be in the tourney but could surface earlier than that in the right environment.

 

[Bone Dog]

Let’s “hypothocize” a bit Bone Dog. Say UCONN runs the conference slate. Then let’s look at two possibilities. First, they get the upset @ SC in Feb. I think that scenario gets the Huskies a one seed even with the 3 losses after knocking off the top team at home. Second, they play a close game @SC and lose, then UCONN ends the season with 4 losses, but is it still out of the realm of possibilities they are in play for a one seed? I ask because UCONN‘s sos is so high and even with 4 losses they might be in play if as expected there are no undefeated or maybe even 1-2 loss teams by seasons end. Something to ponder.

I don’t see UCONN getting through the tourney for another ship this year even if all that happens btw, the injury bug was brutal again as we know and the toll by seasons end will surface imo. But I can see the Huskies running through the conference and even pulling the upset at SC with a few breaks. If the game is close late in the 4th, Geno will duplicate last year’s strategy annd keep sending SC to the FT line, he knows their greatest weakness as he knows for all teams he plays. Anything after that is possible and why they play the games.

Oooh, I love "hypothocizing"! I'm right there with you on this speculation. Maybe I begin by comparing UConn's chances to tOSU's last year. They looked great early on, then went into a swoon when Sheldon was out, and finally made a run to the Elite 8, but could go no further. Their style of play is different, of course, but the path looks similar, and by the end they were running that press playing 5 for most of the game -- talk about conditioning! Then they ran into VPI and one little, high energy pg was enough to upend their chances. I know, others on VPI played well, but it was really about Aamoore almost single-handedly defeating the press.

So assuming we run the regular season table except for SC -- remember this means beating ND, too -- and head to the tournament with only 4 losses. That's a respectable record, though the team's weak spots will be apparent to the seeding committee. Last season, Dorka and Aaliyah were playing like gang-busters and Lou was heroic if a bit hobbled, and we'd just gotten a rusty, still recovering Azzi back and opposing teams worried about when she'd find her form and explode. What we didn't have was enough guard depth and Azzi never quite turned the corner in her comeback. If Azzi had comeback to her early season form -- if an incipient ACL injury wasn't lurking in her knee -- I think we'd have had as good a chance as Iowa to take the title, if not better.

Will only 4 losses be enough for the committee to give us a #1 seed? I don't think so unless others have tanked their seasons. I expect UCLA to dominate the PAC12 with Stanford Colorado and Utah trailing them. SC is a lock for a #1 seed. The committee wasn't willing to give LSU a #1 seed last season and if SC pounds them in conference play, they probably won't this season either. That means the other two #1 seeds could go to someone from the ACC, Big10 or the Big 12. So, Iowa, Indiana, Texas, NC St, VPI. Any or all of these teams could take a couple more losses. In fact, I half expect it for Iowa, Texas and NC St. But even if NC St takes 3 or 4 losses in conference play, they still beat us, so I think we lose that comparison. Same for Texas. And it's always possible that Stanford could get the last #1 seed before us even if they take 3 losses in conference. A decisive win over ND would help us out a lot in such a comparison.

And once we get to the tournament, what is possible? This season UConn is deep at guard and thin in the front court, so almost a reverse situation to last year. Geno always says you win titles with post play, but I'm not sure he's always right about that. Last season, the post-dominant teams lost and guard play took the title. I think we could conceivably beat SC -- once. But I don't see us doing it twice, And UCLA can be beaten, too. But I just don't see us making a title run if we have to face too many of these big-post teams in March. It's too high a hill to climb for our freshman, especially if Paige and Aaliyah wear themselves out in getting us there. If, on the other hand, SC and UCLA fall in upsets before we have to play them, we could well beat any other team in the country. I don't put anything past Paige's combination of grit and magic. Besides, that's how LSU won it last season. But the more likely scenario is that SC plays UCLA or some other 'big' team for the title.

 

[Plebe]

Let’s “hypothocize” a bit Bone Dog. Say UCONN runs the conference slate. Then let’s look at two possibilities. First, they get the upset @ SC in Feb. I think that scenario gets the Huskies a one seed even with the 3 losses after knocking off the top team at home. Second, they play a close game @SC and lose, then UCONN ends the season with 4 losses, but is it still out of the realm of possibilities they are in play for a one seed? I ask because UCONN‘s sos is so high and even with 4 losses they might be in play if as expected there are no undefeated or maybe even 1-2 loss teams by seasons end. Something to ponder.

Hope springs eternal, as they say.

I'm less concerned about the seeding than I am about seeing the team improve and then find a way to peak in the tournament.

Last year, two #1 seeds lost in the 2nd round and the championship went to a #3 seed. A high seed will be small consolation if we lay another stinker in the 3rd round.

 

[Hester42]

Hope springs eternal, as they say.

I'm less concerned about the seeding than I am about seeing the team improve and then find a way to peak in the tournament.

Last year, two #1 seed lost in the 2nd round and the championship went to a #3 seed. A high seed will be small consolation if we lay another stinker in the 3rd round.

I think as parity increases, 1 vs 2/3/4 seed gets less and less imperative by the year (granted its still a advantage). The women's game is starting to shift similar to how the mens NCAAT works and comes down to being healthy and clicking at the right time. The upsets you saw last year are something you will continue to see in future march madness brackets.

 

[Plebe]

Any game with nearly 70 foul calls has to be miserable and not enjoyable. That seems ridiculous all around. I'm sure fouls happened but nearly 70 fouls worth of calls? Doubt it.

Officiating in men and women basketball leave a lot to be desired these days

There have been numerous games with an exorbitant number of fouls called. I believe the NCAA is trying to contain the excessive physicality which, as we all have seen, has been a noticeable trend over a number of years. Ultimately, the only way to curb the physicality is to blow the whistle and, if the players fail to adjust, continue to blow it.

Unless of course you're South Carolina, in which case you get to waltz into Cameron and only get called for 5 personal fouls all game.

 

[triaddukefan]

I was correct about Marquette