There were four teams in the top 10 that I've had trouble deciding if they were ranked too high and I think this weekend helped me get a better feel for most of them. Baylor, Colorado, NC State, and USC all felt like they somewhat benefitted from external circumstances that propelled them into the top 10 (easy schedules, teams ahead in the rankings losing, player injuries, beating over-ranked teams in preseason polls, etc.).
NC State's wins are looking better and better with Colorado beating Utah and UConn starting to rebound from early season struggles, so I'm starting to believe they're a title contender.
Colorado's win over Utah also tells me that their win against LSU wasn't a fluke. I think the Utah win definitely solidified their top 10 status in my mind.
USC looks like a much improved team but they need more firepower to beat the best of the PAC12. Juju is too young to carry the team on her shoulders for 40 minutes. I think she needs an off-season of strength training to prepare her for the role she has been thrust into. I think USC looks like a top 25 team, but on the lower end in the 16-25 range. If I was a betting man I would wager that they will finish fourth or fifth in the PAC12. Additionally, Ohio State is looking overrated, so the quality of that win is diminishing in retrospect.
Baylor does look good but I wish Texas had a healthy Harmon because without Harmon it's hard to decide how good of a win they just earned. The Big 12 also looks like they're having a down year, so it's going to be hard gauging those teams against the rest of the country. They're the only remaining team in the top 10 that I don't have a good feel for.
Thoughts?
Great post. I agree on almost all of this and was having similar thoughts on all fronts. USCw looks like a team too dependent on just 1-2 players without scoring depth behind them, they will drop more games. OSU was expecting much from McMahon and she has been a no show so far, they look lesser than expected, Iowa should win the B12 easily imo. Unfortunately for Utah injuries have surfaced and they are not the same team as last season. The PAC12 is so competitive this season they along with USCw will face more losses. Colo is intriguing but I doubt they get through conference play without 3-4 losses, which is still a good season but is it top 10 worthy by seasons end?
As for the B12, with Harmon I think Texas was a contender. They may still win the B12, Baylor has several deficiencies that have not bitten them yet but I don’t see a top ten team when I watch them, they may end up top ten if they run through the B12 easily but they are not big enough or deep enough imo to finish the season as strong as they have started, certainly not to make a run in the tourney versus anyone with skilled size.
I think NCSU comes back down to earth to an extent as the season progresses. They have been impressive so far, but this is the one team in the top 4-10 that looks ripe for a little pullback in expectations. Maybe they are just a more than the sum of the parts type team but I could see them easily fall off a bit.
Uconn is not dead yet. They may run their conference and if so an upset win at SC in Feb puts them back in the conversation, though I don’t see them as a championship caliber team given their lack of depth also now due to injuries.
This looks like a race between UCLA, Iowa, SC and LSU to cut the nets. Just my early opinion, and it’s all subject to change. I don’t have any concerns about UCLA, as far as glaring weaknesses. Iowa still relies heavily on Clark at 38% usage rate, tops in nation, but if one player deserves that kind of usage it’s her. SC has one huge weakness, they are near the bottom of teams in FT% and we all know how that can bite a team in close games, esp in the tourney.
Geno and Uconn will exploit that to make their game interesting if it is close in the fourth Come February, he did it last season to pull close at the end. LSU‘s schedule so far leaves me knowing less about them than all other teams, and I do think the loss of their center was a huge blow, but I can also see that team, with their parts, being really good even against great teams. Like last season, you have to keep them in the equation, super talent on that squad. They only get SC once this season, and at home, that’s big. There is room for both SC and LSU to get 1 seeds if the ACC champ falls out of the top 6 or so imo. apologize for the long writeup, thoughts were rambling this morning.
