Alright putting more thought into this now....
Group 1: Title Favorites
1. South Carolina-they lose Harris and KHH but return a monster freshman class and have a game changer in Boston who should be the best post in college basketball next year. Look for Beale/Henderson/Cooke to step up. Depth is good too with Amihere, Grissett, and Saxton all back. They dominated their schedule this year, going 32-1, and should be primed for another terrific season.
2. Connecticut-they basically swap out Dangerfield for the consensus #1 recruit, Paige Bueckers. UCONN hands down has more talent than anyone in the nation next year with three former HS POYs, a #2 recruit and a #5 recruit making up the starting 5. For comparison, Oregon this year had 2 top 5 recruits in their starting 5 (Ionescu/Boley), Baylor 1 (Cox), and South Carolina 2 (Boston/Cooke). 4 of UCONN's 5 will be upperclassmen too. Connecticut should have one of the deepest rosters in the country. Makurat, Griffin, Edwards and McLean likely competing for rotation minutes. Even so, question marks are still apparent. Can ONO make the jump to compete with top tier posts? Will Williams rebound after an underwhelming sophomore year? Can Walker produce against top teams? How well will Bueckers adjust collegiately? Time will tell. The cupboard is deep and the talent is there which historically leads to good results for Geno.
3. Stanford-another program that should be absolutely loaded with talent next year and may return pretty much its entire roster sans Fingall. Health will be the biggest factor. We saw three potential starters (Carrington, Jones and Dodson) miss huge chunks of the season due to injury. If those 3 are healthy and play, look out. Kiana Williams will anchor the team once again after a stellar junior season. Lexie Hull/Haley Jones/Dijonai Carrington should make up one of the nation's top wing trios, and Dodson/Belibi/Prechtel make up a good post core. Add in another top 5 kid in Brink and the Card have a great combination of youth and experience that should get Tara back in the title hunt.
Group 2: Title threats
4. Maryland-a lot of people (myself included) gave up on the Terps after a dismal start to the year, but they finished as strong as anyone in the country, absolutely tearing up the Big Ten and likely earning a #1 seed in the process. They lose a lot in Charles, Jones and Watson but have a very good core coming back. Owusu was one of the top freshmen in the country last year and will start full time, Shakira Austin had a great sophomore campaign in the post, Mikesell struggled early but finished the year playing her best basketball, and Miller finished the year very strong as a top producer coming off the bench. Next year they bring back Lewis who was a big contributor her first 2 season and add in Mimi Collins the Tennessee transfer. Collins will add depth inside and has good range on her jumper. Also bring in Reese, the #2 recruit in the country. Maryland will be very good once again.
5. Baylor-this might be low for the Bears but I think they'll be back in the title hunt once again. Smith likely takes over as the go to and could be a POY candidate and Richards returns. Richards was arguably the best glue player in America last year with her passing, defense and overall smarts. Egbo will lockdown the post after a strong sophomore campaign, and Bickle, Ursin and the Olivers should all get larger roles next year after producing well in limited roles this season. Two top 10 recruits come on board, too.
Group 3: Final Four potential, have question marks
6. Louisville-they lose a lot but have a great core back with ACC POY Evans, E. Balogun and E. Dixon all returning. Look for the Elizabeths to take on larger roles with more opportunity. Next year they add in Van Lith and Green (2019 redshirt). Jeff is a good coach and has won 3 straight ACC crowns, I don't see them going anywhere.
7. Mississippi State-Vic and Co. will be strong again with a lot of contributors back and adding in Cooks. Jackson developed into one of the nation's top freshmen over the year and Carter was one of the most improved sophomores. Myah Taylor proved me wrong and ran a very good offense for MSU, too. All 3 are back. Biggest question mark to me is how Vic runs the team/lineup. This year felt a little all over the place, where you'd randomly see AEH, Matharu, Mingo-Young and Wiggins get huge minutes one night and barely any the next. Not a ton of consistency in that regard. All had moments of great play this year--especially Matharu who averaged an astonishing 7 ppg in 10 mpg. Cooks will also add size and another option for Vic. So many options. If his squad can find a good groove and Bibby/AEH find their shots again, I think they can get back to a Final Four.
8. Oregon-could be higher or lower. Pretty much comes down to Sabally/Prince IMO. Their potential starting 5 of Chavez, Shelley, Boley, Sabally and Prince looks very good on paper if the front court players are as good as advertised. They're also adding in a deep class that should contribute from day 1. Graves can coach with the best of them. They'll be good for years to come even if next year is more of a rebuilding one.
Group 4: Proven but unlikely Final Four team...don't see these teams rising or falling much
9. UCLA-they had a strong season in the Pac 12 and return everyone but Dean. I think they'll be right around the 2/3 seed mark again. Strength is Onyenwere and the development of Osbourne. Weakness is offensively ability (team shot under 40% on the year) and size (tallest rotation player is likely 6-1). They also only won games by an average of 11/game this past year despite racking up some very good wins.
10. NC State-they return a ton from their squad including likely All American, Elissa Cunane. Could be higher although I'm not as sold on them as I am other squads.
11. Oregon State-they have been somewhat of a disappointment the past couple of years after several years of overachievement. Jones/Slocum is a great tandem to build your offense around. If Cororsdale and Brown come back 100%, OSU should have a great inside game next year. Goodman is a solid guard with a great jumper. Add in another shooter in Goforth. If healthy I think they can do damage.
12. Northwestern-Pulliam, Burton and Wood are all back after their outstanding season. Both big girls are gone and I think NW may have overachieved a bit this year, so getting back to being a 2 or 3 seed may be tough, but they have good pieces.
Group 5: Potential Dark horse teams to make a big run next year
13. Notre Dame-they might be aggressive, but if they get healthy they'll be a completely different team next year. A starting 5 of Vaughn, Brunelle, Peoples, Gilbert and Prohaska could be quite good if they stay healthy, and Muffet is one of the best coaches in the country. They'll be back.
14. Kentucky-a bit of an up and down year for the Cats but Patterson/Howard will be one of the best combos in the country. Hunt is a good pickup for them but they're very undersized though.
15. Ohio State-everyone is back after a very strong season from the Buckeyes. I think they'll make a considerable jump based on the results from this past season.
Note: This is assuming that McDonald and Carter both declare for the draft. Lots of speculation that Carter will go and McDonald participated in Senior Night festivities. Both teams are top 15 if they're back. Also, if you can't tell from my rankings, I'm not as familiar with mid major programs like Gonzaga, South Dakota, Missouri State and Princeton, so I have a hard time ranking them when I haven't seen much from those teams. I do know Princeton loses Alarie and Gonzaga loses a couple of important starters.
