Way too soon preseason polls

[SCspur]

I don't know why you have UConn so low. But I agree with the 10 teams listed as the best teams.

I just think other teams have better returning talent.

 

[SCspur]

They do now. SMH

Sorry to hear about Walker but it’s apart of the game now. I suspect Chennedy Cater will do the same. But look at the bright side you have Westbrook and I’m sure she’s going to be a player for the huskies this coming season!

 

[CompSci87]

Stanford loses Wilson, Fingall, Brewer and maybe Carrington. Fingall was the lone starter, and Carrington was injured after game 5. Red shirt? Is she coming back? They get Brink (top 5) and some others ranked 40'ish and below.

Wilson and/or Carrington may return. Wilson is appealing to the NCAA for a fifth year because of missing most of her freshman year and part of her sophomore year with multiple injuries. It's not likely both will return, as there aren't enough scholarships available, though in theory one could walk on. Coronavirus & March Madness: Stanford women have early farewell

 

[chrissaran]

Oregon loses their best three. Not a threat next year, but a loaded incoming freshman class.

 

[SimpleDawg]

In my own opinion.......

1. South Carolina - They lose Harrigan and Harris, but Dawn still has the most talented starting lineup. I don't know if they'll drop a bit from this year, but I don't see much competition for where the media will lean for this top spot.

2. Stanford - The only other team I debated putting at #1. They lose a couple of players... Wilson, Fingall but I don't think those will show to make that much difference. If anything, their sophomores could elevate to POY, and their freshmen could really get into the national conversation. I actually think they have the strongest team on paper, but it's just media will slightly lean for the team that had a championship caliber team the year before like SC. If Carrington gets an extra year, it'll be even better but I think they'll still be loaded regardless.

3. UConn - I actually don't think Walker will make too much of a difference. This UConn team has a top recruiting class set to provide what was missing from this year and should be more talented than the current team. I see them being elite again with a stronger bench.

4. Mississippi State - Losing only Danberry, they're a good bet next year. They return a loaded team that has now evolved to include a whole bunch of McDonald's All-Americans. Jackson will be the headline, but this team should be better than previous year with a lot of freshmans and sophomores now sophomores and juniors in their prime.

5. Louisville - They lose 4 out of their top 6 scorers, but I still really like this team. They return the most important piece which is possible Player of Year favorite Dana Evans who looks to have a senior year to remember. Besides, Jeff has such a loaded roster I'm sure somebody will eventually help take the load. Will they lose too much? I don't know, but I'm obviously betting on some of their lesser played players getting better.

6. Baylor or Maryland. Baylor loses too much offense for me to put them higher. Their top scorer will be NaLyssa Smith next year and I'm not sure what Kim will get to surround her with. And Maryland.... I dunno. But i'll assume they're strong... I just don't have the Big 10 Network to watch their games a lot.

 

[Dokey]

In my own opinion.......

1. South Carolina - They lose Harrigan and Harris, but Dawn still has the most talented starting lineup. I don't know if they'll drop a bit from this year, but I don't see much competition for where the media will lean for this top spot.

2. Stanford - The only other team I debated putting at #1. They lose a couple of players... Wilson, Fingall but I don't think those will show to make that much difference. If anything, their sophomores could elevate to POY, and their freshmen could really get into the national conversation. I actually think they have the strongest team on paper, but it's just media will slightly lean for the team that had a championship caliber team the year before like SC. If Carrington gets an extra year, it'll be even better but I think they'll still be loaded regardless.

3. UConn - I actually don't think Walker will make too much of a difference. This UConn team has a top recruiting class set to provide what was missing from this year and should be more talented than the current team. I see them being elite again with a stronger bench.

4. Mississippi State - Losing only Danberry, they're a good bet next year. They return a loaded team that has now evolved to include a whole bunch of McDonald's All-Americans. Jackson will be the headline, but this team should be better than previous year with a lot of freshmans and sophomores now sophomores and juniors in their prime.

5. Louisville - They lose 4 out of their top 6 scorers, but I still really like this team. They return the most important piece which is possible Player of Year favorite Dana Evans who looks to have a senior year to remember. Besides, Jeff has such a loaded roster I'm sure somebody will eventually help take the load. Will they lose too much? I don't know, but I'm obviously betting on some of their lesser played players getting better.

6. Baylor or Maryland. Baylor loses too much offense for me to put them higher. Their top scorer will be NaLyssa Smith next year and I'm not sure what Kim will get to surround her with. And Maryland.... I dunno. But i'll assume they're strong... I just don't have the Big 10 Network to watch their games a lot.

Stanford rated way too high. South Carolina will be tough. But I like UConn as a team. Anna or Paige or both in combo are the keys. As they go do goes UConn.

 

[bballnut90]

In my own opinion.......

1. South Carolina - They lose Harrigan and Harris, but Dawn still has the most talented starting lineup. I don't know if they'll drop a bit from this year, but I don't see much competition for where the media will lean for this top spot.

2. Stanford - The only other team I debated putting at #1. They lose a couple of players... Wilson, Fingall but I don't think those will show to make that much difference. If anything, their sophomores could elevate to POY, and their freshmen could really get into the national conversation. I actually think they have the strongest team on paper, but it's just media will slightly lean for the team that had a championship caliber team the year before like SC. If Carrington gets an extra year, it'll be even better but I think they'll still be loaded regardless.

3. UConn - I actually don't think Walker will make too much of a difference. This UConn team has a top recruiting class set to provide what was missing from this year and should be more talented than the current team. I see them being elite again with a stronger bench.

4. Mississippi State - Losing only Danberry, they're a good bet next year. They return a loaded team that has now evolved to include a whole bunch of McDonald's All-Americans. Jackson will be the headline, but this team should be better than previous year with a lot of freshmans and sophomores now sophomores and juniors in their prime.

5. Louisville - They lose 4 out of their top 6 scorers, but I still really like this team. They return the most important piece which is possible Player of Year favorite Dana Evans who looks to have a senior year to remember. Besides, Jeff has such a loaded roster I'm sure somebody will eventually help take the load. Will they lose too much? I don't know, but I'm obviously betting on some of their lesser played players getting better.

6. Baylor or Maryland. Baylor loses too much offense for me to put them higher. Their top scorer will be NaLyssa Smith next year and I'm not sure what Kim will get to surround her with. And Maryland.... I dunno. But i'll assume they're strong... I just don't have the Big 10 Network to watch their games a lot.

You mention that Louisville has a lot of lesser played players who will take on bigger roles, same thing with Baylor IMO. Queen Egbo should fill in well for Cox, she was a double figure scorer this year and much improved offensively. Richards likely facilitates much of the offense in the same efficient fashion. Hannah Gusters is a big physical post coming in, Andrews is an electric scoring PG, and then for returnees you have spark plug Moon Ursin, Jordyn Oliver who was a top 15 recruit, and Trinity Oliver who looked quite good in limited minutes. If they all stay healthy and come back, I think Baylor is still a top tier team.

Maryland has a lot of young players returning who should blossom in new roles IMO. Each of Owusu, Austin, Mikesell and Miller showed big signs of improvement and should make up a really good core. Plus they add in the #2 recruit.

 

[Plebe]

We still have to wait and see it the NCAA extends “eligibility relief” to seniors and if so, which ones take the option. That could have a massive impact on the competitive balance between teams.

I don’t see how they can offer the extra year to anything less than all seniors. Any attempt to limit it to only those who didn’t get to play in the NCAA or conference tournaments would be massively unfair IMO.

 

[bballnut90]

Updated with Walker leaving, pretty much the same but added in X-factors for teams with strong Final Four potential:

Alright putting more thought into this now....

Group 1: Title Favorites
1. South Carolina-they lose Harris and KHH but return a monster freshman class and have a game changer in Boston who should be the best post in college basketball next year. Look for Beale/Henderson/Cooke to step up. Depth is good too with Amihere, Grissett, and Saxton all back. They dominated their schedule this year, going 32-1, and should be primed for another terrific season. X factor for them is how well either Cooke or Henderson is able to run the offense for South Carolina.

2. Stanford-another program that should be absolutely loaded with talent next year and may return pretty much its entire roster sans Fingall. Health will be the biggest factor. We saw three potential starters (Carrington, Jones and Dodson) miss huge chunks of the season due to injury. If those 3 are healthy and play, look out. Kiana Williams will anchor the team once again after a stellar junior season. Lexie Hull/Haley Jones/Dijonai Carrington should make up one of the nation's top wing trios, and Dodson/Belibi/Prechtel make up a good post core. Add in another top 5 kid in Brink and the Card have a great combination of youth and experience that should get Tara back in the title hunt. X factor for the Card is health and figuring out a smooth rotation. Tons of talent.

Group 2: Title threats

3. Maryland-a lot of people (myself included) gave up on the Terps after a dismal start to the year, but they finished as strong as anyone in the country, absolutely tearing up the Big Ten and likely earning a #1 seed in the process. They lose a lot in Charles, Jones and Watson but have a very good core coming back. Owusu was one of the top freshmen in the country last year and will start full time, Shakira Austin had a great sophomore campaign in the post, Mikesell struggled early but finished the year playing her best basketball, and Miller finished the year very strong as a top producer coming off the bench. Next year they bring back Lewis who was a big contributor her first 2 season and add in Mimi Collins the Tennessee transfer. Collins will add depth inside and has good range on her jumper. Also bring in Reese, the #2 recruit in the country. Maryland will be very good once again. X factor for Maryland is Shakira Austin. If she can develop into a dominant force inside, Maryland can win a title.

4. Connecticut-they lose their 2 best players but the cupboard is far from bare. Two double digit scorers return, standout freshman Makurat is back, and they bring in the #1 recruit plus Tennessee transfer Evina Westbrook. Depth is a bigger concern with Walker leaving, and it requires a big offseson from both Christyn Williams and ONO to take on go to roles. Westbrook is a potential game changer, but how well she adapts and fits into Geno's system is a question mark. The X-factor for the Huskies though will be incoming freshman Paige Bueckers. How college ready is her game? By all accounts she looks like possibly the best recruit to come in since Ionescu, but time will tell. Last year Horston for Tennessee looked like a sure fire bet to be a college ready player from day 1 and she really struggled most of the season for Tennessee. If Paige is as good as advertised and can play at a high level from the get go, UCONN can win a title. If she struggles to adjust to Geno's system (most freshmen have lots of ups and downs at UCONN), it might be a tougher season.

5. Baylor-this might be low for the Bears but I think they'll be back in the title hunt once again. Smith likely takes over as the go to and could be a POY candidate and Richards returns. Richards was arguably the best glue player in America last year with her passing, defense and overall smarts. Egbo will lockdown the post after a strong sophomore campaign, and Bickle, Ursin and the Olivers should all get larger roles next year after producing well in limited roles this season. Two top 10 recruits come on board who will help with scoring and depth. X factor for this crew is perimeter shooting. Landrum/Cooper were outstanding shooters that helped create space for Smith to create inside. If Baylor's guards aren't shooting at a high clip, the offense may struggle for Baylor.


Group 3: Final Four potential, have question marks
6. Louisville-they lose a lot but have a great core back with ACC POY Evans, E. Balogun and E. Dixon all returning. Look for the Elizabeths to take on larger roles with more opportunity. Next year they add in Van Lith and Green (2019 redshirt). Jeff is a good coach and has won 3 straight ACC crowns, I don't see them going anywhere. X-factor for them is Elizabeth Dixon. She played a smaller role last year with Shook having a great season, but they'll need her to step up and be a strong presence inside for them.

7. Mississippi State-Vic and Co. will be strong again with a lot of contributors back and adding in Cooks. Jackson developed into one of the nation's top freshmen over the year and Carter was one of the most improved sophomores. Myah Taylor proved me wrong and ran a very good offense for MSU, too. All 3 are back. Biggest question mark to me is how Vic runs the team/lineup. This year felt a little all over the place, where you'd randomly see AEH, Matharu, Mingo-Young and Wiggins get huge minutes one night and barely any the next. Not a ton of consistency in that regard. All had moments of great play this year--especially Matharu who averaged an astonishing 7 ppg in 10 mpg. Cooks will also add size and another option for Vic. So many options. X factor is finding a steady rotation.

8. Oregon-could be higher or lower. Pretty much comes down to Sabally/Prince IMO. Their potential starting 5 of Chavez, Shelley, Boley, Sabally and Prince looks very good on paper if the front court players are as good as advertised. They're also adding in a deep class that should contribute from day 1. Graves can coach with the best of them. They'll be good for years to come even if next year is more of a rebuilding one. X-factor is front court play with Sabally/Prince.


Group 4: Proven but unlikely Final Four team...don't see these teams rising or falling much
9. UCLA-they had a strong season in the Pac 12 and return everyone but Dean. I think they'll be right around the 2/3 seed mark again. Strength is Onyenwere and the development of Osbourne. Weakness is offensively ability (team shot under 40% on the year) and size (tallest rotation player is likely 6-1). They also only won games by an average of 11/game this past year despite racking up some very good wins.


10. NC State-they return a ton from their squad including likely All American, Elissa Cunane. Could be higher although I'm not as sold on them as I am other squads.

11. Oregon State-they have been somewhat of a disappointment the past couple of years after several years of overachievement. Jones/Slocum is a great tandem to build your offense around. If Cororsdale and Brown come back 100%, OSU should have a great inside game next year. Goodman is a solid guard with a great jumper. Add in another shooter in Goforth. If healthy I think they can do damage.

12. Northwestern-Pulliam, Burton and Wood are all back after their outstanding season. Both big girls are gone and I think NW may have overachieved a bit this year, so getting back to being a 2 or 3 seed may be tough, but they have good pieces.


Group 5: Potential Dark horse teams to make a big run next year
13. Notre Dame-they might be aggressive, but if they get healthy they'll be a completely different team next year. A starting 5 of Vaughn, Brunelle, Peoples, Gilbert and Prohaska could be quite good if they stay healthy, and Muffet is one of the best coaches in the country. They'll be back.

14. Kentucky-a bit of an up and down year for the Cats but Patterson/Howard will be one of the best combos in the country. Hunt is a good pickup for them but they're very undersized though.

15. Ohio State-everyone is back after a very strong season from the Buckeyes. I think they'll make a considerable jump based on the results from this past season.


Note: This is assuming that McDonald and Carter both declare for the draft. Lots of speculation that Carter will go and McDonald participated in Senior Night festivities. Both teams are top 15 if they're back. Also, if you can't tell from my rankings, I'm not as familiar with mid major programs like Gonzaga, South Dakota, Missouri State and Princeton, so I have a hard time ranking them when I haven't seen much from those teams. I do know Princeton loses Alarie and Gonzaga loses a couple of important starters.

 

[SimpleDawg]

You mention that Louisville has a lot of lesser played players who will take on bigger roles, same thing with Baylor IMO. Queen Egbo should fill in well for Cox, she was a double figure scorer this year and much improved offensively. Richards likely facilitates much of the offense in the same efficient fashion. Hannah Gusters is a big physical post coming in, Andrews is an electric scoring PG, and then for returnees you have spark plug Moon Ursin, Jordyn Oliver who was a top 15 recruit, and Trinity Oliver who looked quite good in limited minutes. If they all stay healthy and come back, I think Baylor is still a top tier team.

Maryland has a lot of young players returning who should blossom in new roles IMO. Each of Owusu, Austin, Mikesell and Miller showed big signs of improvement and should make up a really good core. Plus they add in the #2 recruit.

I don't think Queen Egbo is the same as Cox. I think Baylor loses 3 essential offensive pieces. I think they have a stronger chance of looking drastically different next year than Louisville who I think is more of a player-out/plug-in type team.

I don't deny Baylor's talent. I just think they'll be weaker offensively mostly but they'll still show the usual Baylor dominance, but just with a little bit less offense that could be enough to have them down a little bit. But yeah, still a top tier team, of course. Hard to say who'll separate themselves next year, but I'm pretty sure it's gonna be about the same top 7 or 8 teams fighting it out.

I don't watch Maryland a lot. I don't have the Big 10 Network, but I imagine they'll be in the Top 5 in the Preseason.

 

[ABCDFE]

You mention that Louisville has a lot of lesser played players who will take on bigger roles, same thing with Baylor IMO. Queen Egbo should fill in well for Cox, she was a double figure scorer this year and much improved offensively. Richards likely facilitates much of the offense in the same efficient fashion. Hannah Gusters is a big physical post coming in, Andrews is an electric scoring PG, and then for returnees you have spark plug Moon Ursin, Jordyn Oliver who was a top 15 recruit, and Trinity Oliver who looked quite good in limited minutes. If they all stay healthy and come back, I think Baylor is still a top tier team.

Maryland has a lot of young players returning who should blossom in new roles IMO. Each of Owusu, Austin, Mikesell and Miller showed big signs of improvement and should make up a really good core. Plus they add in the #2 recruit.

No Nalyssa Smith mention for Baylor?

 

[bballnut90]

We still have to wait and see it the NCAA extends “eligibility relief” to seniors and if so, which ones take the option. That could have a massive impact on the competitive balance between teams.

I don’t see how they can offer the extra year to anything less than all seniors. Any attempt to limit it to only those who didn’t get to play in the NCAA or conference tournaments would be massively unfair IMO.

If they do give eligibility to all current seniors, my guess is that players who return will likely be not good enough to play in the W or will have more limited overseas options. Good mid major programs likely have the most to benefit from this. Also, if players do come back for another year, they'll mostly be grad students so we'd likely see a huge influx of grad transfers.

Just going from teams I have in my top 15, I could see the following impact players return:

1. South Carolina-I doubt either Hariss or MHH return. Maybe MHH but probably not.

2. Stanford-no scholarships left for Fingall, grad transfer option

3. Maryland-Charles likely goes pro. Both Jones and Watson could return and it would make Maryland very deep.

4. UCONN-Dangerfield/Walker both go. Irwin/Bent could return but aren't impact players.

5. Baylor-Cox is a goner. Cooper likely too. Landrum I could see returning, she'd be a huge boost.

6. Louisville-all of Diop/Dunham/Jones/Shook could return.

7. Mississippi State-Danberry could be back. I think she has 1 more year of grad school regardless.

8. Oregon-Moore could be back. The big 3 are all gone.

9. UCLA-Dean could return

10. NC State-Konig could be back

11. Oregon State-Pivec is gone. Tudor may return.

12. Northwestern-both posts could return

13. Notre Dame-Sniezek may return if she still has another year of grad school. Kinda doubt she does though.

14. Kentucky-all seniors could be back

15. Ohio State-all returnees are coming back already

 

[bballnut90]

I don't think Queen Egbo is the same as Cox. I think Baylor loses 3 essential offensive pieces. I think they have a stronger chance of looking drastically different next year than Louisville who I think is more of a player-out/plug-in type team.

I don't deny Baylor's talent. I just think they'll be weaker offensively mostly but they'll still show the usual Baylor dominance, but just with a little bit less offense that could be enough to have them down a little bit. But yeah, still a top tier team, of course. Hard to say who'll separate themselves next year, but I'm pretty sure it's gonna be about the same top 7 or 8 teams fighting it out.

I don't watch Maryland a lot. I don't have the Big 10 Network, but I imagine they'll be in the Top 5 in the Preseason.

That's valid about comparing Baylor to Louisville. Egbo is definitely not as good as Cox on either end but will still be one of the stronger posts in the country. Baylor looked really solid even when Cox was out with injury so I think they'll be fine. Egbo was great but got dominated by Boston.

I think Andrews ability to score the ball from day 1 will be hugely impactful for Baylor.

 

[bballnut90]

No Nalyssa Smith mention for Baylor?

She's a given for offensive production. Was responding to @SimpleDawg's statement of "their top scorer will be NaLyssa Smith next year and I'm not sure what Kim will get to surround her with"

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

Sorry to hear about Walker but it’s apart of the game now. I suspect Chennedy Cater will do the same. But look at the bright side you have Westbrook and I’m sure she’s going to be a player for the huskies this coming season!

I think if Chennedy Carter turns pro, Gary will retire. He's 74, 75 in August.

 

[Plebe]

If they do give eligibility to all current seniors, my guess is that players who return will likely be not good enough to play in the W or will have more limited overseas options. Good mid major programs likely have the most to benefit from this. Also, if players do come back for another year, they'll mostly be grad students so we'd likely see a huge influx of grad transfers.

Just going from teams I have in my top 15, I could see the following impact players return:

1. South Carolina-I doubt either Hariss or MHH return. Maybe MHH but probably not.

2. Stanford-no scholarships left for Fingall, grad transfer option

3. Maryland-Charles likely goes pro. Both Jones and Watson could return and it would make Maryland very deep.

4. UCONN-Dangerfield/Walker both go. Irwin/Bent could return but aren't impact players.

5. Baylor-Cox is a goner. Cooper likely too. Landrum I could see returning, she'd be a huge boost.

6. Louisville-all of Diop/Dunham/Jones/Shook could return.

7. Mississippi State-Danberry could be back. I think she has 1 more year of grad school regardless.

8. Oregon-Moore could be back. The big 3 are all gone.

9. UCLA-Dean could return

10. NC State-Konig could be back

11. Oregon State-Pivec is gone. Tudor may return.

12. Northwestern-both posts could return

13. Notre Dame-Sniezek may return if she still has another year of grad school. Kinda doubt she does though.

14. Kentucky-all seniors could be back

15. Ohio State-all returnees are coming back already

I think you're a bit quick to assume that all the best players wouldn't come back. Perhaps most won't, but not a safe assumption.

Pivec apparently just said in an interview that she would come back if given an extra year.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

Egbo had a better offensive year than Cox. I don't think that will be as big a hole as Cox's reputation would make it seem.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

I think there is again not a real favorite.

South Carolina, Maryland, Stanford, Louisville, Baylor, UCONN, Miss State, Oregon would be my top 8 in some order.

 

[DaBball]

If they do give eligibility to all current seniors, my guess is that players who return will likely be not good enough to play in the W or will have more limited overseas options. Good mid major programs likely have the most to benefit from this. Also, if players do come back for another year, they'll mostly be grad students so we'd likely see a huge influx of grad transfers.

Just going from teams I have in my top 15, I could see the following impact players return:

1. South Carolina-I doubt either Hariss or MHH return. Maybe MHH but probably not.

2. Stanford-no scholarships left for Fingall, grad transfer option

3. Maryland-Charles likely goes pro. Both Jones and Watson could return and it would make Maryland very deep.

4. UCONN-Dangerfield/Walker both go. Irwin/Bent could return but aren't impact players.

5. Baylor-Cox is a goner. Cooper likely too. Landrum I could see returning, she'd be a huge boost.

6. Louisville-all of Diop/Dunham/Jones/Shook could return.

7. Mississippi State-Danberry could be back. I think she has 1 more year of grad school regardless.

8. Oregon-Moore could be back. The big 3 are all gone.

9. UCLA-Dean could return

10. NC State-Konig could be back

11. Oregon State-Pivec is gone. Tudor may return.

12. Northwestern-both posts could return

13. Notre Dame-Sniezek may return if she still has another year of grad school. Kinda doubt she does though.

14. Kentucky-all seniors could be back

15. Ohio State-all returnees are coming back already

Pivec already said she would be back.

 

[bballnut90]

Egbo had a better offensive year than Cox. I don't think that will be as big a hole as Cox's reputation would make it seem.

Egbo had high percentages but didnt produce well against quality bigs, similar to ONO at UCONN. Cox was far better in all areas IMO aside from maybe running the floor.

 

[bluedevil]

I keep reading about how freshmen have such a hard time adjusting to Geno's system. Considering no titles since 2016 do the boneyard kibitzers think the system needs a tweak? Yes I know how many titles he has won...just something to talk about...

 

[rvwsleep]

New transfers rules could determine not only impact the rankings for the start of next season but could also determine the the eventual champion just as the current transfer rules have determined the last 3 NCAA WCBB champions.

 

[ucbart]

Pivec already said she would be back.

They better not let any of these players back. What about the players from all the terrible teams whose careers were over because all that was left were national post-season tournaments for which their teams didn't qualify? Sorry-people are losing jobs and money at record rates today. These kids need to learn that life isn't fair. This would be the ultimate "participation trophy," IMO.

 

[HopJim]

Updated with Walker leaving, pretty much the same but added in X-factors for teams with strong Final Four potential:

Alright putting more thought into this now....

Group 1: Title Favorites
1. South Carolina-they lose Harris and KHH but return a monster freshman class and have a game changer in Boston who should be the best post in college basketball next year. Look for Beale/Henderson/Cooke to step up. Depth is good too with Amihere, Grissett, and Saxton all back. They dominated their schedule this year, going 32-1, and should be primed for another terrific season. X factor for them is how well either Cooke or Henderson is able to run the offense for South Carolina.

2. Stanford-another program that should be absolutely loaded with talent next year and may return pretty much its entire roster sans Fingall. Health will be the biggest factor. We saw three potential starters (Carrington, Jones and Dodson) miss huge chunks of the season due to injury. If those 3 are healthy and play, look out. Kiana Williams will anchor the team once again after a stellar junior season. Lexie Hull/Haley Jones/Dijonai Carrington should make up one of the nation's top wing trios, and Dodson/Belibi/Prechtel make up a good post core. Add in another top 5 kid in Brink and the Card have a great combination of youth and experience that should get Tara back in the title hunt. X factor for the Card is health and figuring out a smooth rotation. Tons of talent.

Group 2: Title threats

3. Maryland-a lot of people (myself included) gave up on the Terps after a dismal start to the year, but they finished as strong as anyone in the country, absolutely tearing up the Big Ten and likely earning a #1 seed in the process. They lose a lot in Charles, Jones and Watson but have a very good core coming back. Owusu was one of the top freshmen in the country last year and will start full time, Shakira Austin had a great sophomore campaign in the post, Mikesell struggled early but finished the year playing her best basketball, and Miller finished the year very strong as a top producer coming off the bench. Next year they bring back Lewis who was a big contributor her first 2 season and add in Mimi Collins the Tennessee transfer. Collins will add depth inside and has good range on her jumper. Also bring in Reese, the #2 recruit in the country. Maryland will be very good once again. X factor for Maryland is Shakira Austin. If she can develop into a dominant force inside, Maryland can win a title.

4. Connecticut-they lose their 2 best players but the cupboard is far from bare. Two double digit scorers return, standout freshman Makurat is back, and they bring in the #1 recruit plus Tennessee transfer Evina Westbrook. Depth is a bigger concern with Walker leaving, and it requires a big offseson from both Christyn Williams and ONO to take on go to roles. Westbrook is a potential game changer, but how well she adapts and fits into Geno's system is a question mark. The X-factor for the Huskies though will be incoming freshman Paige Bueckers. How college ready is her game? By all accounts she looks like possibly the best recruit to come in since Ionescu, but time will tell. Last year Horston for Tennessee looked like a sure fire bet to be a college ready player from day 1 and she really struggled most of the season for Tennessee. If Paige is as good as advertised and can play at a high level from the get go, UCONN can win a title. If she struggles to adjust to Geno's system (most freshmen have lots of ups and downs at UCONN), it might be a tougher season.

5. Baylor-this might be low for the Bears but I think they'll be back in the title hunt once again. Smith likely takes over as the go to and could be a POY candidate and Richards returns. Richards was arguably the best glue player in America last year with her passing, defense and overall smarts. Egbo will lockdown the post after a strong sophomore campaign, and Bickle, Ursin and the Olivers should all get larger roles next year after producing well in limited roles this season. Two top 10 recruits come on board who will help with scoring and depth. X factor for this crew is perimeter shooting. Landrum/Cooper were outstanding shooters that helped create space for Smith to create inside. If Baylor's guards aren't shooting at a high clip, the offense may struggle for Baylor.


Group 3: Final Four potential, have question marks
6. Louisville-they lose a lot but have a great core back with ACC POY Evans, E. Balogun and E. Dixon all returning. Look for the Elizabeths to take on larger roles with more opportunity. Next year they add in Van Lith and Green (2019 redshirt). Jeff is a good coach and has won 3 straight ACC crowns, I don't see them going anywhere. X-factor for them is Elizabeth Dixon. She played a smaller role last year with Shook having a great season, but they'll need her to step up and be a strong presence inside for them.

7. Mississippi State-Vic and Co. will be strong again with a lot of contributors back and adding in Cooks. Jackson developed into one of the nation's top freshmen over the year and Carter was one of the most improved sophomores. Myah Taylor proved me wrong and ran a very good offense for MSU, too. All 3 are back. Biggest question mark to me is how Vic runs the team/lineup. This year felt a little all over the place, where you'd randomly see AEH, Matharu, Mingo-Young and Wiggins get huge minutes one night and barely any the next. Not a ton of consistency in that regard. All had moments of great play this year--especially Matharu who averaged an astonishing 7 ppg in 10 mpg. Cooks will also add size and another option for Vic. So many options. X factor is finding a steady rotation.

8. Oregon-could be higher or lower. Pretty much comes down to Sabally/Prince IMO. Their potential starting 5 of Chavez, Shelley, Boley, Sabally and Prince looks very good on paper if the front court players are as good as advertised. They're also adding in a deep class that should contribute from day 1. Graves can coach with the best of them. They'll be good for years to come even if next year is more of a rebuilding one. X-factor is front court play with Sabally/Prince.


Group 4: Proven but unlikely Final Four team...don't see these teams rising or falling much
9. UCLA-they had a strong season in the Pac 12 and return everyone but Dean. I think they'll be right around the 2/3 seed mark again. Strength is Onyenwere and the development of Osbourne. Weakness is offensively ability (team shot under 40% on the year) and size (tallest rotation player is likely 6-1). They also only won games by an average of 11/game this past year despite racking up some very good wins.


10. NC State-they return a ton from their squad including likely All American, Elissa Cunane. Could be higher although I'm not as sold on them as I am other squads.

11. Oregon State-they have been somewhat of a disappointment the past couple of years after several years of overachievement. Jones/Slocum is a great tandem to build your offense around. If Cororsdale and Brown come back 100%, OSU should have a great inside game next year. Goodman is a solid guard with a great jumper. Add in another shooter in Goforth. If healthy I think they can do damage.

12. Northwestern-Pulliam, Burton and Wood are all back after their outstanding season. Both big girls are gone and I think NW may have overachieved a bit this year, so getting back to being a 2 or 3 seed may be tough, but they have good pieces.


Group 5: Potential Dark horse teams to make a big run next year
13. Notre Dame-they might be aggressive, but if they get healthy they'll be a completely different team next year. A starting 5 of Vaughn, Brunelle, Peoples, Gilbert and Prohaska could be quite good if they stay healthy, and Muffet is one of the best coaches in the country. They'll be back.

14. Kentucky-a bit of an up and down year for the Cats but Patterson/Howard will be one of the best combos in the country. Hunt is a good pickup for them but they're very undersized though.

15. Ohio State-everyone is back after a very strong season from the Buckeyes. I think they'll make a considerable jump based on the results from this past season.


Note: This is assuming that McDonald and Carter both declare for the draft. Lots of speculation that Carter will go and McDonald participated in Senior Night festivities. Both teams are top 15 if they're back. Also, if you can't tell from my rankings, I'm not as familiar with mid major programs like Gonzaga, South Dakota, Missouri State and Princeton, so I have a hard time ranking them when I haven't seen much from those teams. I do know Princeton loses Alarie and Gonzaga loses a couple of important starters.

Notre Dame unlikely to make Top 20 next year, but forecast Top10 (maybe Top 5) the year after.

 

[DefenseBB]

I keep reading about how freshmen have such a hard time adjusting to Geno's system. Considering no titles since 2016 do the boneyard kibitzers think the system needs a tweak? Yes I know how many titles he has won...just something to talk about...

You're kidding right? 12 consecutive final fours but no titles in 4 years (3 were played) and you think they need to "tweak" their process? Nothing to talk about, come up with something more debatable.