Watch out for UConn

[VAMike23]

 

[tomcat]

For myself, I'd rather project the performances of players, particularly those who have never played even a minute of college ball, in a conservative way. I don't know whether UConn will have one, two or three top centers, and I don't much care. Things can happen. Injuries can happen. Slumps can happen, too, as we saw last season. If everyone is operating on all cylinders, UConn should have a helluva team, though rating one player or another as an All American at this point is, to my way of thinking, a waste of breath.

The real question is whether UConn will be better than, say, Baylor next season, or better than Duke or UNC (to stir the pot just a little) . Remember that the point is not whether Stef is the #1 or #2 or #3 center in the land. It is whether the coaching staff can use Stef and her compadres to solve the Griner problem, or to continue to dominate Williams. Think about the games against Stanford a few years ago when UConn drove Jane Appel absolutely crazy. Not the last year, when Tina was dominant, but before that. With the exception of the game UConn lost, Geno and Company developed a game plan that really worked.

I remember the game in St. Thomas, when by the end of the game, Appel was practically in tears. It was not because of a dominant single player, but a team of players. That, I submit, is all that matters this year. Can the coaching staff:
-- Get the freshmen, who are used to doing things their way, to buy into the UConn system?
-- Motivate the upperclassmen -- Dolson, Hartley, etc. -- so there are none of those debilitating slumps?
-- Work the entire team through whatever adversity (including injuries) that may hit?

Just some thoughts for consideration. Hope you're all having a nice summer. It was 113 degrees here again today.

 

[doggydaddy]

What??? I said that I do need to see her against top talent. Please re-read post 47.

I do think that Chandler will be spectacular. Saying the she will be spectacular is not the same as saying that she is a top 4 player at her position. However, I do think that she is going to kick some ass next season.

Tony is the only one that said that Stokes is going to be a top 4 player at her position.

But saying all the superlatives you used implies a top player at her position. At least that is how I interprite that.

Assuming she is a 3/4, do you consider the top 10 players at that position "spectacular"? I can only think of a few players to use that word for, so maybe it's just semantics.

You seem to be saying that she will be spectacular, yet you need to see her against top competition to put her in the top 10 for her position. Makes no sense to me.

 

[Huskymaniac]

With the exception of the game UConn lost, Geno and Company developed a game plan that really worked.

I remember the game in St. Thomas, when by the end of the game, Appel was practically in tears. It was not because of a dominant single player, but a team of players. That, I submit, is all that matters this year.

Regardless of anything else, we have Geno and they don't! We may not be able to find a player that can stop the jolly green giant but we have a coach that can figure out how to stop her with a team. A team he didn't have to cheat to recruit!

 

[cferraro04]

I'm sorry but the problem other teams are going to have against UConn is really quite simple really. Their problem is going to be UConn! I think that is what TonyC was trying to point out. The match-ups are just silly difficult for other teams and there is very little drop-off coming from the bench. Habitually when UConn went to the bench in the recent past they were somewhat challenged as to where the points were going to come from. I don't see that being a problem this year. UConn is going to be long, fast and an offensive and defensive juggernaut.

Let's loot at the probable starting line-up

Stephanie Dolson - last year - 10.0 points and 6.0 rebounds; This year 12 points and 7.0 rebounds
Breanna Stewart - This year - 10 points and 7.0 rebounds
Kelly Faris - last year 6.7 points and 5.2 rebounds; This year 7.5 points and 5.0 rebounds
KML last year - 15.0 points and 5.4 rebounds; This year - 17.5 points and 5.5 rebounds
Bria Hartley - last year - 14.0 and 3.9 rebounds; This year - 15.5 points and 4.2 rebounds

Moriah Jefferson - 4 points and 1.5 rebounds

Starters + Moriah Jefferson - 66.5 points and 30.2 rebounds

or, unlikely but still potent

Stephanie Dolson - This year - 14 points and 7.0 rebounds
Breanna Stewart - This year - 12 points and 7.0 rebounds
KML - This year - 19.0 points and 5.5 rebounds
Bria Hartley - 16.5 points and 4.2 rebounds
Moriah Jefferson - 5 points and 2 rebounds (everybody else's scoring goes up do to Moriah's ability to penetrate and dish.

Kelly Faris - 6 points 4.5 rebounds

Starters + Kelly - 72.5 points and 30.2 rebounds

Now let's go to the bench players...

Caroline Doty - Last Year - 5.0 points and 2.2 rebounds; This year 5.0 points and 2.2 rebounds.
Heather Buck - Last Year - 2.3 points and 3.0 rebounds; This year 2.3 points and 3.0 rebounds
Kiah Stokes - Last Year - 4.5 points and 4.5 rebounds; This year 6 points and 5.o rebounds
Morgan Tuck This year 4.5 points and 4.0 rebounds
Brianna Banks - last year 3.6 points and 1.1 rebounds; This year 4.5 points and 2.0 rebounds
Laura Engeln - last year 1.2 points and .8 rebounds; This year 2 points and 1.0 rebounds


With Kelly Starting and Moriah coming in off the bench
Total from the bench - 24.3 points and 17 rebounds
Total per game 90.8 and 47.2 rebounds

With Moriah Starting and Kelly coming off the bench
Total from the bench - 24.3 points and 17 rebounds
Total per game 96.8 points and 47.2 rebounds

If I take the obligatory 10 percent discount for compiling figures with my Husky blue glasses on I still get 81.7 points and 42.5 rebounds with Kelly starting and 87.12 points and 42.5 rebounds with Moriah starting.

This brings me to my original statement: The problem other teams are going to have with UConn this year is UConn. We are going to be an offensive juggernaut, they are going to have a match-up nightmare when they play UConn. UConn is long, fast and can score from a number of options. They will be tough on the boards.

Now, that we have discussed offense what about defense. We are going to be very tough on defense with out length, upper classman experience, speed on speed and Geno's defensive sets...teams are going to have a difficult time scoring. Opponents averaged 47.0 points and 31.3 rebounds last year. I look for UConn to duplicate those numbers this year. The problem other teams are going to have is to score more than 80 points against UConn. Only Notre Dame did that (83 pts) in our last game during the NCCA's . Notre Dame also scored 72 points during the regular season making them the only other team to score over 70 points against UConn. Now, ask yourself, do you think that Notre Dame without Peters, Novosel and Mallory will score over 70 points against UConn this year? Not happening... So, what does that give us...it gives us a team that is going to be very stingy on the defensive end but who will more than likely score mid 70s to 80 points per game. I think there is UConn and Baylor and everyone else... JMHO

 

[Ozzie Nelson]

Great Post CF!!!!

 

[Bigpetunia]

Thank you, Nan, for injecting some intelligence into a nutty (but fun) discussion among fans who've been deprived of Husky BB for too many months. So here's a question I would ask: Given that we've now anointed three of our players in the top five in the entire country (WOW!) who would care to wager with me that none of the anointed will get as many minutes on the floor this season than the unanointed Kelly Faris??

 

[doggydaddy]

Thank you, Nan, for injecting some intelligence into a nutty (but fun) discussion among fans who've been deprived of Husky BB for too many months. So here's a question I would ask: Given that we've now anointed three of our players in the top five in the entire country (WOW!) who would care to wager with me that none of the anointed will get as many minutes on the floor this season than the unanointed Kelly Faris??

That was 3 of the top 4 posts, not 3 of the top 4 players.

The original statement was over the top, but you don't have to overstate what was said to make it even MORE over the top!!!

And it was only ONE poster, Tony, who said that, so no anointing here.

I agree about Faris getting more minutes than the 3 players mentioned.

 

[doggydaddy]

I can see you are squarely in the "Doty not starting" group, CF. Other than that, your numbers look pretty good to me.

ND is really going to struggle with UConn this year. Just go back 3 seasons and before that and you will get a picture of the probable scores.

It will be like Diggins freshman year. She will be changing her head band so often, her head wil spin...lol.

 

[msf22b]

Trash's point is well taken except for the fact that Stokes' problem was not physical in nature.

 

[slimmer56]

I posted earlier saying it would not surprise me one little bit if Kelly had more minutes than anyone else. And why not ! She is in superb shape, even if she ate a 32oz Ribeye one time. She is Geno's coach on the floor, and all the player's know she has their backs at crunchtime, and she plays defense and rebounds like a madman. Hell, they interviewed her at the half of the Kentucky game when she had caught the bomb from Tiff, and she wasn't even breathing hard.....pure amazing.

 

[cferraro04]

Doggydaddy...with all the talent and ability that UConn will put on the floor something has to give. I just don't see how it can be business as usual this year. I think Doty realizes it and I think she is prepared to give up the starters roll for the betterment of the team. She will still get her minutes and I didn't lower my expectations for her even though she may not be starting. I still have her scoring and rebounding at her last year's level...5.0 points and 2.2 rebounds. I don't believe an convincing argument can be made that she will out perform her last year's numbers although anything is possible. I expect C. Doty to take on a leadership roll this year...she will be like having another Geno on the floor with the players.

 

[arty155]

...ND is really going to struggle with UConn this year... changing her head band so often, her head will spin...lol.

“Facing UConn 4 Times This Season??? Morons!!! Save Me!!!!”

Asst Coach Blair, expresses concern with Notre Dame’s upcoming schedule.

 

[Icebear]

I expect C. Doty to take on a leadership roll this year...she will be like having another Geno on the floor with the players.

I expect CD will still start because of the physical necessity of being warmed up and her ability to set the proper pace for the team.

 

[doggydaddy]

Doggydaddy...with all the talent and ability that UConn will put on the floor something has to give. I just don't see how it can be business as usual this year. I think Doty realizes it and I think she is prepared to give up the starters roll for the betterment of the team. She will still get her minutes and I didn't lower my expectations for her even though she may not be starting. I still have her scoring and rebounding at her last year's level...5.0 points and 2.2 rebounds. I don't believe an convincing argument can be made that she will out perform her last year's numbers although anything is possible. I expect C. Doty to take on a leadership roll this year...she will be like having another Geno on the floor with the players.

I agree with everything you've said except that Doty will start. Her minutes will be in the 15-2o range and Stewart will demand (not verbally but with her play) 30 a game.

 

[cferraro04]

Ice, I know that was the procedure last year...but, I really think the personal dynamics of this year's players is such that Geno will be forced to set a different tone. I think Caroline loses her starting roll this year. Of course, Geno certainly knows better than I and I know he likes to go with his proven seniors...but, he knows that against the faster more athletic teams last year that Caroline struggled. Maybe he selectively starts her alternating with Kelly and later in the year Moriah. Just speculating here...

 

[doggydaddy]

Ice, I know that was the procedure last year...but, I really think the personal dynamics of this year's players is such that Geno will be forced to set a different tone. I think Caroline loses her starting roll this year. Of course, Geno certainly knows better than I and I know he likes to go with his proven seniors...but, he knows that against the faster more athletic teams last year that Caroline struggled. Maybe he selectively starts her alternating with Kelly and later in the year Moriah. Just speculating here...

I think we all agree that no matter who starts, this team will be friggin' amazing.

 

[OneTrickPony]

I'm glad I don't have to make the decision on playing time for this group, but it makes you appreciate the great attitude of the players UCONN recruits.

I do think Kiah Stokes has tremendous potential, and hope she finds the right mental state this year. I can't see Breanna Stewart anchored in the paint with her skills...she needs another effective big to give her freedom. Stephanie Dolson will work beautifully with her, but it seems like we'll be losing Stephanie and Bria Hartley way too soon!

 

[OneTrickPony]

Also have to say that Kelly Faris plays a lot of minutes for me in any game I care about. A smart, athletic, tenacious player raises everybody's game...she's that player.

 

[Icebear]

Ice, I know that was the procedure last year...but, I really think the personal dynamics of this year's players is such that Geno will be forced to set a different tone. I think Caroline loses her starting roll this year. Of course, Geno certainly knows better than I and I know he likes to go with his proven seniors...but, he knows that against the faster more athletic teams last year that Caroline struggled. Maybe he selectively starts her alternating with Kelly and later in the year Moriah. Just speculating here...

I understand your logic I just think you are wrong. One thing that is for sure Geno will find the use that is best for her and the team.

 

[cferraro04]

I think minutes is going to be gained at a premium...and because of the talent and the depth...I don't think you are going to see too many 30 minute games from our players. We have a lot of players and I think the minutes will be more evenly spread around.


You have 35.1 minutes from Tiffany Hayes and Michala Johnson. Where are the minutes going to come from for the new guys, Kiah Stokes has to get more minutes and Brianna Banks will probably see her minutes go up. So, I am expecting additional minutes to come from Stefanie Dolson (2), KML (4), Kelly Faris (4.9), Caroline Doty (4.6) and Bria Hartley (6.2). That would give us 56.8 minutes to give to the new kids, Kiah and Brianna. That would make the minute spread look something like this.

Stefanie Dolson last year's minutes - 23.9 This year - 21.8
Kiah Stokes last year's minutes - 13.4 This year - 17
Morgan Tuck This year - 12
Heather Buck last year's minutes - 8.8 This year - 8.0
Breanna Stewart This year - 20
KML last year's minutes - 28.2 This year - 24.2
Kelly Faris last year's minutes - 28.9 This year - 24
Caroline Doty last year's minutes - 20.6 This year - 16
Bria Hartley last year's minutes - 33.2 This year - 27
Moriah Jefferson This year - 15
Brianna Banks last year's minutes - 12.3 This year - 15
Lauren Engeln last year's minutes - 6.6 This year - 10

 

[doggydaddy]

I think minutes is going to be gained at a premium...and because of the talent and the depth...I don't think you are going to see too many 30 minute games from our players. We have a lot of players and I think the minutes will be more evenly spread around.


You have 35.1 minutes from Tiffany Hayes and Michala Johnson. Where are the minutes going to come from for the new guys, Kiah Stokes has to get more minutes and Brianna Banks will probably see her minutes go up. So, I am expecting additional minutes to come from Stefanie Dolson (2), KML (4), Kelly Faris (4.9), Caroline Doty (4.6) and Bria Hartley (6.2). That would give us 56.8 minutes to give to the new kids, Kiah and Brianna. That would make the minute spread look something like this.

Stefanie Dolson last year's minutes - 23.9 This year - 21.8
Kiah Stokes last year's minutes - 13.4 This year - 17
Morgan Tuck This year - 12
Heather Buck last year's minutes - 8.8 This year - 8.0
Breanna Stewart This year - 20
KML last year's minutes - 28.2 This year - 24.2
Kelly Faris last year's minutes - 28.9 This year - 24
Caroline Doty last year's minutes - 20.6 This year - 16
Bria Hartley last year's minutes - 33.2 This year - 27
Moriah Jefferson This year - 15
Brianna Banks last year's minutes - 12.3 This year - 15
Lauren Engeln last year's minutes - 6.6 This year - 10

I think you are probably right. I take back my 30 minutes for Stewart.

2000-01 team will give us a blueprint on how Geno handles a 10 deep team.

Abrosimova - 24.5
Cash - 23.8
Taurasi - 24.0
Bird - 27.7
Williams - 19.9
Jones - 19.5
Ralph - 23.7
Schumacher - 16.9
Johnson - 17.9
Battle - 10.4
Valley - 10.3
Conlon - 7.1
Rigby - 6.1
Czel - 5.1

Sveta was injured after 19 games and Battle after 5. But Geno didn't have anyone close to 30 a game except for Bird at 27.7.

 

[cferraro04]

After looking over the minute spread from the 2000-01 team...I think I did pretty good with mine...at least if the comparison means anything, it appears that Geno and I are sort of on the same page...

 

[VAMike23]

I'm glad I don't have to make the decision on playing time for this group, but it makes you appreciate the great attitude of the players UCONN recruits.

I do think Kiah Stokes has tremendous potential, and hope she finds the right mental state this year. I can't see Breanna Stewart anchored in the paint with her skills...she needs another effective big to give her freedom. Stephanie Dolson will work beautifully with her, but it seems like we'll be losing Stephanie and Bria Hartley way too soon!

Another thing seems certain - those younger players who want playing time are going to have to go HARD in practice from day one, and every day thereafter. Had Kiah come along this year as a frosh and experienced the same kind of long adjustment period she did last year re: practice intensity, her keister might never leave the pine

 

[John Fryer]

Wow! Yet another very interesting discussion.

IMHO, not enough was said about the potential impact of Moriah and Morgan on next year's team.

IMO, Morgan, if she plays as advertised, will have a significant impact on Kelly's minutes.

I also believe that Caroline's minutes will be impacted by the quality of our opponents as well as by Moriah's ability to run the team against all of our opponents.

Lastly, Kelly is not now nor has she ever been an effective PG for UConn. (The ability to dribble the ball up the mid-court line, mostly uncontested, does not make a player an effective PG.)

All of this is, of course, just my opinion.

Peace

John Fryer