Virginia the key?

[Pudge]

The ONLY number that matters to me is when the PUBLIC & ECONOMIC forces bring College Football to go to at least an 8 team playoff. At that point, the Bowl configuration & the "inside the tent/outside the tent" aspect of this gets a hint of fresh air. You will find the Boise's and the TCUs some years knocking over Notre Dame easy. An Oregon gets hot in the playoff. Something. The sport is simply stale ... as is.

 

[freescooter]

Swofford seemed to be playing 1990 checkers ... while Slive & Delaney were ratcheting up their game (and Larry Scott of the Pac 12). Rutgers? Look ... they are pond scum; but, they are far more valuable longterm (IMHO) than BC or SU. And so are we! You just simply cannot get the Revenue out of CNY. The Brand? I think the contrast in the ACC to the B1G has been amazing. That's why their cute little club is in danger. He doesn't have to worry about his games at MSG; he has to worry about watching his Tar Heels play Texas A&M as an Away Conference game.

I think you are exaggerating Swofford's faults. He never had the hand those other conferences had. He had one team and a bunch of midgets...Remember Florida State went 7 years before losing 2 ACC games. He had a strategy to build a truly Atlantic Coast Conference. And remember when he made the BC/Syracuse/Miami move, (substituting VTech for Cuse was not his plan it was forced on him by Virginia's Governor) UConn wasn't a real option and Rutgers was a laughing stock. So he went after the most logical additions. As I said, he could have backfilled any ofUConn, Rutgers, Pitt and VaTech any time he wanted to finish his eastern seaboard league if UConn or Rutgers actually became worth taking or the market justified it. They were not valuable at all in 2003. Nor was UConn for football. As it is he still has a league that is workable and one that can survive all but the most dramatic multi-pronged raid. And witht the excpetion of the Big 10 is the most geographically logical Louisville not withstanding. And is possibly in a better position to survive than the B-12. How long do you think they would be viable if the PAC and/or Big decided to make a deal for Texas and Oklahoma? I don't like the guy...he reminds me of one of those phony southern preachers on late night tv, but trying to claim he has not done a very nice job is just not true.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Why would the B1G go head-to-head with the SEC on the SEC's home turf? I'm speaking specifically about North Carolina. No matter which North Carolina school (UNC or State) goes to the B1G, granting your assumption that the other goes to the SEC, how is that good for the B1G? The B1G has zero interest in competing for North Carolina with the SEC. The reason is the northeast corridor and that's why the Virginia schools will likely split up with UVA to the B1G and Tech (along with UNC or State) to the SEC. UVA is not UNC. They have strong connections with D.C. and thus the northeast corridor.

The marketing guys in the B1G understand that Rutgers and Maryland aren't enough to secure the northeast. They aren't about to through away their UMD/Rutty investment by failing to properly make use of it. They aren't about to expose such a strategic move to sniping, skirmishes, and full fledged pitched battles by competitors from the SEC and ACC. IT MAKES NO SENSE!

UVA is going to the B1G. Bet on it. Still, two DC/Balto...Philly schools and oneNYC/Philly schools aren't enough. The northern flank is vulnerable as long as Syra, BC, and especially UCONN are free to distract and dilute the B1G brand. The final shoe is UCONN. There is no other northern northeaster school that fits the B1G profile. Like UVA, UCONN is going to the B1G. Take it to the bank because it's the only move that makes sense.

NC is a state in transition from a traditional southern state, think of good ol’ Senator Jesse Helms, to melting pot of southern traditionalists and Northern and Midwestern transplants. Just look at the 2012 last Presidential Election map, a big blue areas centered around the Research Triangle and Charlotte metro surrounded by a while lot of red.
http://www.politico.com/2012-election/results/president/north-carolina/
That is why there will be a massive political fight over UNC’s future should the ACC be broken-up between the BiG camp (appears to be supported by Academic leadership) and the SEC camp (appears to be supported by the Athletic leadership). Will be less of an issue for Duke, who views itself as an ‘Ivy’ like school that draws a lot of students from the Northeast and sends a lot of graduates to the Northeast (I think Duke law has a program that helps grads take the New York bar upon graduation). NC State is on the opposite side of Duke, they are a SEC camp school.
The migration of folks from the Northeast and Midwest to NC is the #1 reason why the BiG wants UNC. In 1982, Michigan’s population was 9.2 million, in 2012 it was 9.8 million (+6.5%). NC went from 5.8 million in 1982 to 9.7 million in 2012 (+67%).
Virginia mirrors NC, except that it is about 10 or so years ahead of NC, primarily due to the migration of people into the DC area to feed the job monster that the US Federal Government is.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Why does the Pac need to get to 16? They are probably the least vulnerable conference. They control the entire west coast from Washingto to California, fram the ocean to the Rockies. Why would they dilute their payday by adding members?

For two reasons, #1 to keep up with the Jones, and #2, like any business, they need to increase their revenue stream to keep their shareholders, i.e. membership, happy.

 

[The Funster]

I think you are exaggerating Swofford's faults. He never had the hand those other conferences had. He had one team and a bunch of midgets...Remember Florida State went 7 years before losing 2 ACC games. He had a strategy to build a truly Atlantic Coast Conference. And remember when he made the BC/Syracuse/Miami move, (substituting VTech for Cuse was not his plan it was forced on him by Virginia's Governor) UConn wasn't a real option and Rutgers was a laughing stock. So he went after the most logical additions. As I said, he could have backfilled any ofUConn, Rutgers, Pitt and VaTech any time he wanted to finish his eastern seaboard league if UConn or Rutgers actually became worth taking or the market justified it. They were not valuable at all in 2003. Nor was UConn for football. As it is he still has a league that is workable and one that can survive all but the most dramatic multi-pronged raid. And witht the excpetion of the Big 10 is the most geographically logical Louisville not withstanding. And is possibly in a better position to survive than the B-12. How long do you think they would be viable if the PAC and/or Big decided to make a deal for Texas and Oklahoma? I don't like the guy...he reminds me of one of those phony southern preachers on late night tv, but trying to claim he has not done a very nice job is just not true.

BC was a mistake. Many of us already knew that support in their own city was lukewarm at best. But hey, they had competitive football and OK recent hoops success. What was the plan for BC? They were an outlier in a crappy market and while no one could have foressen that BC would die on the vine so quickly even if Cuse came on board instead of VTech I don't think it would have helped BC that much. My criticism of Swofford doesn't really revolve around the first slimy raid but moreso around the second.

First off, Swofford was working under the assumption that the Big 12 was going to get ripped apart. That was his first mistake. Had he worked under the assumption that the Big 12 would have stayed together, he may not have made any move. He wouldn't have had to. Instead he made his move and when the FB schools groused he thought he'd try to appease them with a massive TV deal but that only made it worse and his conference has been under pressure ever since.

On top of that, Swofford either failed to cast a vision for his constituents, catered to Tobacco Road and/or capitulated to two of the new weak sisters when they discussed which teams to add. He was weak. OK, Syracuse was always on the table. Great hoops, weak FB but still allegedly a "brand" for FB. UConn was the other but wait, BC has an issue with "turf", Shalala's overrated sanction factory still had issues with UConn so Swofford allows Pitt to get picked. The smart play then would have been to pick WVU and either UConn or Syracuse, with Syracuse the most likely. But the ACC never considered WVU and yet they conveniently forgot why they didn't seriously consider WVU when they selected Louisville to replace MD. where is the vision? Where is the consistency in selection? It appears that teams were selected to appease various elements within the ACC and those elements varied based on previous selections!

Finally, I think Swofford messed up again when he moved for Louisville so quickly. I'm no lawyer but if I want to enforce that exit fee I may have a better case if I don't bring in the next warm body in less than a week.

Sorry, Swofford has screwed up at every turn. He may be better than Tranghese and Marinatto but he pales in comparison compared to his current peers.

 

[SubbaBub]

I actually don't expect Virginia to make a change unless they feel forced. The thing about the ACC is that its old southern core is pretty committed to the conference. That's not the case with FSU probably, but I think even they like it sort of...gives them legitimacy in a way. Doesn't mean they wouldn't leave under the right circumstances though. And Virginia is much more of a Southern institution than say Maryland...Maryland is pretty urban, part of the inner Washington DC metro area and if you have ever been there it has a much more urban feel, and northern feel than genteel Virginia. Actually in many ways excluding location and the frigging corps of cadets, VaTech is more like an eastern/northern school than UVa in my estimation which is why they were not a bad fit in the old Big East. The cadet thing though is very southern...

Agree, UVA and Uconn to big 10 make sense, but there are so many scenarios out there, but to me it does make sense.

When has common sense and rational thought driven conference realignment?!

I was almost optimistic there for a second, damn you.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

For two reasons, #1 to keep up with the Jones, and #2, like any business, they need to increase their revenue stream to keep their shareholders, i.e. membership, happy.

Why would the existing member schools of a 12 team conference with revenues of, for the sake of argument, $120MM per year be happy about adding two schools so that total revenues would increase by $10MM per year?

 

[RegisteredUconn]

NC is a state in transition from a traditional southern state, think of good ol’ Senator Jesse Helms, to melting pot of southern traditionalists and Northern and Midwestern transplants. Just look at the 2012 last Presidential Election map, a big blue areas centered around the Research Triangle and Charlotte metro surrounded by a while lot of red.
http://www.politico.com/2012-election/results/president/north-carolina/
That is why there will be a massive political fight over UNC’s future should the ACC be broken-up between the BiG camp (appears to be supported by Academic leadership) and the SEC camp (appears to be supported by the Athletic leadership). Will be less of an issue for Duke, who views itself as an ‘Ivy’ like school that draws a lot of students from the Northeast and sends a lot of graduates to the Northeast (I think Duke law has a program that helps grads take the New York bar upon graduation). NC State is on the opposite side of Duke, they are a SEC camp school.
The migration of folks from the Northeast and Midwest to NC is the #1 reason why the BiG wants UNC. In 1982, Michigan’s population was 9.2 million, in 2012 it was 9.8 million (+6.5%). NC went from 5.8 million in 1982 to 9.7 million in 2012 (+67%).
Virginia mirrors NC, except that it is about 10 or so years ahead of NC, primarily due to the migration of people into the DC area to feed the job monster that the US Federal Government is.

Michigan going from 9.2 to 9.8 million over 20 years while North Carolina went from 5.8 to 9.7 million over the same time period is a red herring. The B1G isn't interested in Tobacco Road. Why would they be when there is a market 5 times that size lying virtually unattended? Why would they rush off to contest North Carolina, a less than satisfactory cultural fit at best, with the SEC, and the ACC, and conceivably the Big 12 too for a market seemingly on track for growth of a measly 2 million souls over the next decade or so when they could have 50 million contested only by a BCS equivalent of a boy scout troup? It makes absolutely no sense. In other words, assertions of UNC to the B1G are logical nonsense.

UVA, on the other hand, makes perfect sense for exactly the reason you cite. The Cavaliers are a part of the northeast region geographically even if their roots are southern. They will be a much easier ship to turn. That's not to say they will be easy. They won't. That's why this second phase of the B1G's assimilation of the northeast, the phase where UVA and UConn become members may take longer than Rutgers and Maryland. UVA will be harder to convince than MD was. However, what the B1G has working for it this time is that Maryland's defection clearly shows the ACC's days of football relevance are numbered. I think you'll fit in with the B1G just fine Mr. Conehead.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The ACC isn't breaking up. ESPN will step up with more cash, and UConn will be playing rivalry games against ECU and Tulane for the next 10 years.

 

[uconnbill]

I would too, but to say he has been a bad commissioner is just totally wrong. In 5 years which conference has a greater chance of still being in existence, the ACC or BE4.0? He has had a strategy, he followed it and he's created a defensible league that while not perfect, is considered a Big 5 and, one which almost any current Big East member would join in a heartbeat. Sure if the Big and the SEC and the B-12 all come gunning they are screwed but that is what it would take most likely. And I think that's a stretch.

Please you give him too much credit. The ACC did what ESPN help them do and nothing more. This was about control and ESPN now has most of the control.

 

[frankthetank]

RegisteredUConn - As someone that follows the Big Ten very closely, your position couldn't be farther from the truth. If UNC were willing to join the Big Ten, the conference would expand immediately without question. They are a massive prize. Short of adding Notre Dame or Texas, adding UNC would likely be the next on the list for the Big Ten of they could have anyone. My strong feeling is that who the Big Ten wants to get to 16 are UVA and UNC. The thing is that the notion of adding UNC (who the SEC would also covet) is exponentially more difficult than what a lot of Armageddon realignment observers believe - they have Texas-like influence within the ACC and as Texas showed, such influence over a conference can be even more important than making the most TV dollars possible. Make no mistake about it, though - the Big Ten would add UNC immediately if they had the opportunity. Lest we forget that Jim Delany played basketball for Dean Smith at UNC - he knows the school's value as much as Swofford does.

 

[RS9999X]

FSU and V Tech are the only Tier1 properties. .Miami potentially. Clemson
Is a regional power. The rest are cable carriage fee plays in split fandom states like VA and NC and GA

Sent from my Lumia 920 via Windows 8. Now bite me Apple Droids.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Why would the existing member schools of a 12 team conference with revenues of, for the sake of argument, $120MM per year be happy about adding two schools so that total revenues would increase by $10MM per year?

When nearly bankrupt state governments do this, University President’s gladly take the extra $10 million…
http://www.dailycal.org/2011/12/13/uc-budget-slashed-by-100-million-mid-year/

 

[HuskyHawk]

FSU and V Tech are the only Tier1 properties. .Miami potentially. Clemson
Is a regional power. The rest are cable carriage fee plays in split fandom states like VA and NC and GA

Sent from my Lumia 920 via Windows 8. Now bite me Apple Droids.

What? In the ACC? UNC is the most valuable school, by far. VT isn't even close to the value of UVA.

This is a complicated game. Right now, the B1G probably does view UVA and UNC as great expansion targets. Those schools, remaining southern in culture and having influence in the ACC (especially UNC) likely want to stay where they are. The B1G is probably fine with that, and with the ACC surviving, but does not want the SEC to claim UVA and UNC (or to get UT).

Swofford knows his position is precarious, and that's why the ACC made the ND deal. ND to the ACC for football ends the concept of the ACC breaking up. It's the Ace in the hole. If it looks like a raid on the ACC is coming, expect an ultimatum to ND. They will need to join the ACC or B1G outright (or Big 12, but I doubt it).

The B12 is not out of the woods. And let's remember that they once looked as vulnerable as the BE. UT is a blessing and a curse, just like ND is to the ACC. It has so much power it can hold a league by itself. Yet that power makes the league less desireable to those like Mizzou and A&M that had other options.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Michigan going from 9.2 to 9.8 million over 20 years while North Carolina went from 5.8 to 9.7 million over the same time period is a red herring. The B1G isn't interested in Tobacco Road. Why would they be when there is a market 5 times that size lying virtually unattended? Why would they rush off to contest North Carolina, a less than satisfactory cultural fit at best, with the SEC, and the ACC, and conceivably the Big 12 too for a market seemingly on track for growth of a measly 2 million souls over the next decade or so when they could have 50 million contested only by a BCS equivalent of a boy scout troup? It makes absolutely no sense. In other words, assertions of UNC to the B1G are logical nonsense.

UVA, on the other hand, makes perfect sense for exactly the reason you cite. The Cavaliers are a part of the northeast region geographically even if their roots are southern. They will be a much easier ship to turn. That's not to say they will be easy. They won't. That's why this second phase of the B1G's assimilation of the northeast, the phase where UVA and UConn become members may take longer than Rutgers and Maryland. UVA will be harder to convince than MD was. However, what the B1G has working for it this time is that Maryland's defection clearly shows the ACC's days of football relevance are numbered. I think you'll fit in with the B1G just fine Mr. Conehead.

I believe we all agree that UVA to the B1G makes sense on a variety of levels…
As for UNC to the B1G, it is a gamble. The question for the B1G is it worth the risk going toe to toe with the SEC (and possibly the XII) in a southern leaning state, especially, from a political standpoint, UNC’s little brother, NC State, will have to be assured a safe home (SEC or XII) should the ACC collapse. In addition, the B1G may have to agree to add Duke also as an incentive. The upside is that UNC has the population growth, i.e. TV cable subscribers, that the Midwest currently does not have, UNC’s status as a ‘public ivy’ fits well with the BiG’s profile, and UNC is a unique, national sports brand.
I am not saying that further entry into the Northeast does not make sense for the B1G; but, the Northeast is a pro sports market and lacks a heavyweight collegiate national brand. UConn, BC (vulgar langue edited), and Syracuse are the closest; but, they are below the level of Texas, ND, Ohio St, Michigan and UNC.

 

[RMoore1999]

RegisteredUConn - As someone that follows the Big Ten very closely, your position couldn't be farther from the truth. If UNC were willing to join the Big Ten, the conference would expand immediately without question. They are a massive prize. Short of adding Notre Dame or Texas, adding UNC would likely be the next on the list for the Big Ten of they could have anyone. My strong feeling is that who the Big Ten wants to get to 16 are UVA and UNC. The thing is that the notion of adding UNC (who the SEC would also covet) is exponentially more difficult than what a lot of Armageddon realignment observers believe - they have Texas-like influence within the ACC and as Texas showed, such influence over a conference can be even more important than making the most TV dollars possible. Make no mistake about it, though - the Big Ten would add UNC immediately if they had the opportunity. Lest we forget that Jim Delany played basketball for Dean Smith at UNC - he knows the school's value as much as Swofford does.

Frank, I confess at the outset that I am an "Armageddon realignment observer". Whether its a week, 4 months or 7 years, massive movement is inevitable. Your Texas - UNC comparison is faulted in that Texas has, and will likely always be able to generate, boatloads of cash; UNC is nowhere near the same league in terms of financial independence. So while they both exert great influence within their respective conferences, and both are highly appealing expansion candidates to virtually every expansion hungry conference, UNC is much more susceptible to the vagaries of conference realignment than is Texas.

That said, I think the B1G is UNC's most likely ultimate resting place. However, RegisteredUConn does a better job than anyone else I've read in explaining why Delaney is likely quite interested in Connecticut, if not as #16 or #18, then as the B1G's 20th member.

 

[UConnJim]

Couple of points.

I agree with Frank. The prize for either the Big 10 or SEC is UVa and UNC. Clearly, the SEC would target the flagship universities over VT and NC St.

I can't see UNC joining the Big 10 as it is a northern conference. I can see them joining the SEC.

The ACC has too many private schools (5 excluding ND), contains only 2 true flagship state universities (UVa and UNC), has 4 schools located in NC, and has the second tier state universities in seven states (Florida, Georgia, Virginia, NC, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania) which is a LT revenue problem especially if conference cable channels are the trend.

If the ACC wanted ND all-in for football, they would not have invited them as a non-football member. Right now, ND would be feeling the heat to go all-in to a conference if the ACC did not invite them. The ACC blowing up is not a problem for ND as then it becomes Big East 2.0, and ND is ok with that conference for their Olympic sports. This college football season with ND playing for the BCS championship only solidified ND's position as an independent.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

When nearly bankrupt state governments do this, University President’s gladly take the extra $10 million…
http://www.dailycal.org/2011/12/13/uc-budget-slashed-by-100-million-mid-year/

If you do the math in my example, the individual schools lose money (130MM divided by 14 schools versus 120MM divided by 12 schools) even though the conference itself increases revenue. It has the potential to be a conflict of interest between the conference and the individual members...but I'm sure the accountants know that already.

 

[Vuce]

they have Texas-like influence within the ACC and as Texas showed, such influence over a conference can be even more important than making the most TV dollars possible.

Yeah UNC has so much influence that when they wanted and voted for Uconn to join the ACC in the last vote, the league took Louisville.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

RegisteredUConn - As someone that follows the Big Ten very closely, your position couldn't be farther from the truth. If UNC were willing to join the Big Ten, the conference would expand immediately without question. They are a massive prize. Short of adding Notre Dame or Texas, adding UNC would likely be the next on the list for the Big Ten of they could have anyone. My strong feeling is that who the Big Ten wants to get to 16 are UVA and UNC. The thing is that the notion of adding UNC (who the SEC would also covet) is exponentially more difficult than what a lot of Armageddon realignment observers believe - they have Texas-like influence within the ACC and as Texas showed, such influence over a conference can be even more important than making the most TV dollars possible. Make no mistake about it, though - the Big Ten would add UNC immediately if they had the opportunity. Lest we forget that Jim Delany played basketball for Dean Smith at UNC - he knows the school's value as much as Swofford does.

Frank - I appreciate your insight and your undoubtedly superior knowledge about things Big Ten. I don't dispute that UNC would be a highly valued piece of property for the right conference. What I will dispute, and not through any insider knowledge but simply by applying common sense, is that the Big Ten "would expand immediately" if UNC were willing to join. I've come to the conclusion that UVA's partner in the Big Ten's next expansion will be UConn and not UNC despite arguing exactly as you are not two months ago. I thought UNC was the end game for the Big Ten and UVA was as much a link to get them there as a prize itself.

Reasons the Big Ten does not want UNC over UConn. For purposes of this discussion, I will assume that the SEC would like a North Carolina team and that the Big Ten would like UNC (even though I don't believe that). Even if the Big Ten is interested in North Carolina (the state), I think they would abandon that interest if UNC were not available. Given that assumption, these arguments will assume that NC State ends up in the SEC.

#1) UNC does not deliver the North Carolina market especially if the SEC picks up NC State. North Carolina (the state) is a better fit with the SEC. An SEC based NC State would be very dangerous competition for a UNC based Big Ten. It is much more likely that NC State football improves more dramatically in the SEC than UNC's does in the Big Ten. Quality of product is one of the drivers of interest in a team. Geography is another. North Carolina borders South Carolina and Tennessee. NC State will have a decided advantage in marketing games and generating state-wide "buzz" over UNC and the Big Ten. Put simply, regarding football, UNC in the Big Ten will play second fiddle to an SEC based NC State in the state of North Carolina and neither the Big Ten nor UNC want that.

#2) The Big Ten has made a bold and obvious play for the megalopolis that stretches from Washington D.C. to Boston. The region's 55 million (give or take) residents dwarfs North Carolina. What's more, NC's 10 million are more hotly contested (or soon will be if UNC goes to the Big Ten and NC State goes to the SEC) than the northeast's 55 million. What else is more is that the Big Ten's bold move is placed at risk if they fail to secure the region with an overwhelming show of force. Rutgers and Maryland do not constitute overwhelming force. Who wins the battle for the northeast super region? An ACC based UVA, Syracuse, and Boston College...+UConn? Or a Big Ten based Rutgers and Maryland? I'd say the outcome would not be a foregone conclusion.

Even if the Big Ten believed its northeast risks were manageable, why would they turn right around and request a second, even larger, helping by engaging the SEC in North Carolina? Does Hitler's invasion of Russia ring no bells at Big Ten HQ? Surely even the mighty B10 must have some misgivings regarding expansion into the south Atlantic coast. They are far too prudent to bet the next decades Rose Bowl checks on "Pony Boy" in the Kentucky Derby going off at 250 to 1.

So, assuming the B10 is interested in North Carolina (which I don't), what should they do to ameliorate the considerable risks? Obtain a proof of concept. Bring in UVA to get a baseline level of interest for the Big Ten in a southern market. They might also examine a variety of marketing tactics to see what moves the needle. UVA would likely require a partner. Who better than UConn? We pass the hygiene tests (academics, athletics, geography ...) with a solid B. We have a reasonably solid upside in academics and athletics. We shore up the northeast. We're eager and available. A test case using UConn and UVA is a solid risk abatement strategy.

#3) If the Big Ten's interest in North Carolina begins and ends with UNC, that does little to bolster claims that the state (and its growth rate) is the answer to the B10's prayers. If North Carolina were the answer, the Big Ten would look to NC State next, not abandon the field. That alone tells me that the B10 sees the North Carolina market as a "nice-to-have" only.

#4) UNC to the Big Ten has the potential to be a huge blunder for the Big Ten. I won't (New Coke) bore everyone (the Edsel) with a compilation (Betamax) of the worst (the Segway) as those (the Homer) are well known (UNC to the Big Ten*).


* Future entry.

 

[caw]

Yeah UNC has so much influence that when they wanted and voted for Uconn to join the ACC in the last vote, the league took Louisville.

Totally agree.

UNC loses influence with every expansion the ACC has made. It's simple math. The fact football is running stuff only lessens their influence.

If UNC had Texas' branding in football, things would be the same. They don't and won't.

 

[caw]

Frank - I appreciate your insight and your undoubtedly superior knowledge about things Big Ten. I don't dispute that UNC would be a highly valued piece of property for the right conference. What I will dispute, and not through any insider knowledge but simply by applying common sense, is that the Big Ten "would expand immediately" if UNC were willing to join. I've come to the conclusion that UVA's partner in the Big Ten's next expansion will be UConn and not UNC despite arguing exactly as you are not two months ago. I thought UNC was the end game for the Big Ten and UVA was as much a link to get them there as a prize itself.

Reasons the Big Ten does not want UNC over UConn. For purposes of this discussion, I will assume that the SEC would like a North Carolina team and that the Big Ten would like UNC (even though I don't believe that). Even if the Big Ten is interested in North Carolina (the state), I think they would abandon that interest if UNC were not available. Given that assumption, these arguments will assume that NC State ends up in the SEC.

#1) UNC does not deliver the North Carolina market especially if the SEC picks up NC State. North Carolina (the state) is a better fit with the SEC. An SEC based NC State would be very dangerous competition for a UNC based Big Ten. It is much more likely that NC State football improves more dramatically in the SEC than UNC's does in the Big Ten. Quality of product is one of the drivers of interest in a team. Geography is another. North Carolina borders South Carolina and Tennessee. NC State will have a decided advantage in marketing games and generating state-wide "buzz" over UNC and the Big Ten. Put simply, regarding football, UNC in the Big Ten will play second fiddle to an SEC based NC State in the state of North Carolina and neither the Big Ten nor UNC want that.

#2) The Big Ten has made a bold and obvious play for the megalopolis that stretches from Washington D.C. to Boston. The region's 55 million (give or take) residents dwarfs North Carolina. What's more, NC's 10 million are more hotly contested (or soon will be if UNC goes to the Big Ten and NC State goes to the SEC) than the northeast's 55 million. What else is more is that the Big Ten's bold move is placed at risk if they fail to secure the region with an overwhelming show of force. Rutgers and Maryland do not constitute overwhelming force. Who wins the battle for the northeast super region? An ACC based UVA, Syracuse, and Boston College...+UConn? Or a Big Ten based Rutgers and Maryland? I'd say the outcome would not be a foregone conclusion.

Even if the Big Ten believed its northeast risks were manageable, why would they turn right around and request a second, even larger, helping by engaging the SEC in North Carolina? Does Hitler's invasion of Russia ring no bells at Big Ten HQ? Surely even the mighty B10 must have some misgivings regarding expansion into the south Atlantic coast. They are far too prudent to bet the next decades Rose Bowl checks on "Pony Boy" in the Kentucky Derby going off at 250 to 1.

So, assuming the B10 is interested in North Carolina (which I don't), what should they do to ameliorate the considerable risks? Obtain a proof of concept. Bring in UVA to get a baseline level of interest for the Big Ten in a southern market. They might also examine a variety of marketing tactics to see what moves the needle. UVA would likely require a partner. Who better than UConn? We pass the hygiene tests (academics, athletics, geography ...) with a solid B. We have a reasonably solid upside in academics and athletics. We shore up the northeast. We're eager and available. A test case using UConn and UVA is a solid risk abatement strategy.

#3) If the Big Ten's interest in North Carolina begins and ends with UNC, that does little to bolster claims that the state (and its growth rate) is the answer to the B10's prayers. If North Carolina were the answer, the Big Ten would look to NC State next, not abandon the field. That alone tells me that the B10 sees the North Carolina market as a "nice-to-have" only.

#4) UNC to the Big Ten has the potential to be a huge blunder for the Big Ten. I won't (New Coke) bore everyone (the Edsel) with a compilation (Betamax) of the worst (the Segway) as those (the Homer) are well known (UNC to the Big Ten*).


* Future entry.

I don't think it's necessarily a problem having competition with the SEC. It's not a foregone conclusion that having an SEC team in the same state would hamper the Big Ten Network's profitability at all.

UNC would still be in demand in North Carolina and the cable networks would be forced to pick up the feed irregardless. If they suck, people watch (like Rutgers). UNC may lose some share to NCST, but as long as cable networks are still going to carry and charge subs for the Big Ten Network (an amount that would make money) then it's all fine and dandy. Besides, even if UNC football is below NCST football, basketball should remain high (or at least of high interest) and would be reason enough to add UNC.

UVA I am actually more skeptical about forcing cable to do anything in VA or DC. UVA may be Virginia's big public school, but honestly, nobody gives a rats about watching any of their sports. I don't have any official numbers, but from my experience VT has more (or at least a similar number of) fans.

I do understand that UVA fits the Big Ten profile school well, but I'm not sure it really helps the bottom line for sports profits. Maybe UVA/Maryland combination does push cable in DC, but I'm skeptical on if UVA adds a ton to that equation.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I'm going to make this simple. Anyone who thinks that there is any conference that would value UConn more highly than UNC is nuts or is under the influence of powerful drugs.

The only reason why UNC might not end up in the B1G is because the don't want to go. I do think that is an entirely likely scenario. If you check their boards....the fans hate the idea of the B1G and would love to be in the SEC. However many northerners have moved there, it is still culturally southern. And DC aside, if anyone thinks that Virginia is culturally northern they are seriously mistaken. The primary confederate army was the Army of Northern Virginia and it was the state most affected by the war. Anyone who thinks the fact that Ohio St. is in the B10 and Kentucky the SEC is arbitrary is not paying attention to reality. I think it would be very difficult for the B1G to convince UVA or UNC to join. My guess is that they'd run to the SEC for a counter-offer immediately, and Delany knows it.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

I'm going to make this simple. Anyone who thinks that there is any conference that would value UConn more highly than UNC is nuts or is under the influence of powerful drugs.

The only reason why UNC might not end up in the B1G is because the don't want to go. I do think that is an entirely likely scenario. If you check their boards....the fans hate the idea of the B1G and would love to be in the SEC. However many northerners have moved there, it is still culturally southern. And DC aside, if anyone thinks that Virginia is culturally northern they are seriously mistaken. The primary confederate army was the Army of Northern Virginia and it was the state most affected by the war. Anyone who thinks the fact that Ohio St. is in the B10 and Kentucky the SEC is arbitrary is not paying attention to reality. I think it would be very difficult for the B1G to convince UVA or UNC to join. My guess is that they'd run to the SEC for a counter-offer immediately, and Delany knows it.

Be cautious when applying the transitive property to valuation. There are many factors involved and arriving at a rank order is often neither simple nor unanimous. Geography is a factor most conferences would use in their evaluations. The Pac12 recently added Utah and Colorado. Does North Carolina have more value than those schools? If so, given that UNC isn't competing in L.A., Berkley, Tuscon, etc., does that mean they turned down an invitation? Because either 1) they did, or 2) every conference would Utah and Colorado more than North Carolina, or 3) the transitive property does is inoperative with respect to valuation.

The B1G recently added Rutgers and Maryland. Did the B1G value both those schools higher than UNC? Are both those schools valued higher than UConn? They'd have to be if the B1G valued them more than UNC and everyone values UNC over UConn. Maybe the B1G has a policy of inviting lower valued schools over those valued higher?

In addition to geography, time is a factor in valuation. Berlin was a higher valued target in the time frame of WWII, but on June 6, 1944, the beaches at Normandy were. Perhaps Rutgers and Maryland had higher value to the B1G recently even if North Carolina would be valued higher given a different timeframe.

Current conference configuration is a factor in evaluation. Perhaps without Rutgers and Maryland, UNC becomes a lower valued addition than they are with those two. Perhaps without Maryland UConn (together with Rutgers) becomes a higher valued addition to the B1G than does UNC.

Texas is, by most accounts, a prima donna. Evaluated without context, I would guess that most, if not all, conferences would value Texas higher than North Carolina. Given its baggage and demands for accepting membership, other conferences have refused to invite them. Would the B1G invite ND for all sports but football?

 

[homunculus]

I'm going to make this simple. Based on MD and RU, a school's value in a vacuum has little or no correlation to a school's value to an expansion strategy.

To make it a bit more complicated:
Nobody here has direct knowledge of the B1G's actual strategy. All we can to is speculate based on prior moves and statements. Delaney made a comment about alumni from northern Virginia to southern New England. They're not in those markets yet. They invited Rutgers and Maryland. That's pretty much all the evidence we have to go on. Based on that evidence it appears that their strategy could be to capture the northeast corridor and the BosWash megalopolis. It appears they could be on track toward sandwiching the major metropolitan areas and media markets between flagship universities up and down the seaboard, from N Va to S New England. If that is the strategy, then the next schools invited should be Virginia and UConn.

If anything but that is the strategy, UConn better hope the ACC survives. And finally decides they want us.

 

[RuffRuff]

Frank - I appreciate your insight and your undoubtedly superior knowledge about things Big Ten. I don't dispute that UNC would be a highly valued piece of property for the right conference. What I will dispute, and not through any insider knowledge but simply by applying common sense, is that the Big Ten "would expand immediately" if UNC were willing to join. I've come to the conclusion that UVA's partner in the Big Ten's next expansion will be UConn and not UNC despite arguing exactly as you are not two months ago. I thought UNC was the end game for the Big Ten and UVA was as much a link to get them there as a prize itself.

Reasons the Big Ten does not want UNC over UConn. For purposes of this discussion, I will assume that the SEC would like a North Carolina team and that the Big Ten would like UNC (even though I don't believe that). Even if the Big Ten is interested in North Carolina (the state), I think they would abandon that interest if UNC were not available. Given that assumption, these arguments will assume that NC State ends up in the SEC.

#1) UNC does not deliver the North Carolina market especially if the SEC picks up NC State. North Carolina (the state) is a better fit with the SEC. An SEC based NC State would be very dangerous competition for a UNC based Big Ten. It is much more likely that NC State football improves more dramatically in the SEC than UNC's does in the Big Ten. Quality of product is one of the drivers of interest in a team. Geography is another. North Carolina borders South Carolina and Tennessee. NC State will have a decided advantage in marketing games and generating state-wide "buzz" over UNC and the Big Ten. Put simply, regarding football, UNC in the Big Ten will play second fiddle to an SEC based NC State in the state of North Carolina and neither the Big Ten nor UNC want that.

#2) The Big Ten has made a bold and obvious play for the megalopolis that stretches from Washington D.C. to Boston. The region's 55 million (give or take) residents dwarfs North Carolina. What's more, NC's 10 million are more hotly contested (or soon will be if UNC goes to the Big Ten and NC State goes to the SEC) than the northeast's 55 million. What else is more is that the Big Ten's bold move is placed at risk if they fail to secure the region with an overwhelming show of force. Rutgers and Maryland do not constitute overwhelming force. Who wins the battle for the northeast super region? An ACC based UVA, Syracuse, and Boston College...+UConn? Or a Big Ten based Rutgers and Maryland? I'd say the outcome would not be a foregone conclusion.

Even if the Big Ten believed its northeast risks were manageable, why would they turn right around and request a second, even larger, helping by engaging the SEC in North Carolina? Does Hitler's invasion of Russia ring no bells at Big Ten HQ? Surely even the mighty B10 must have some misgivings regarding expansion into the south Atlantic coast. They are far too prudent to bet the next decades Rose Bowl checks on "Pony Boy" in the Kentucky Derby going off at 250 to 1.

So, assuming the B10 is interested in North Carolina (which I don't), what should they do to ameliorate the considerable risks? Obtain a proof of concept. Bring in UVA to get a baseline level of interest for the Big Ten in a southern market. They might also examine a variety of marketing tactics to see what moves the needle. UVA would likely require a partner. Who better than UConn? We pass the hygiene tests (academics, athletics, geography ...) with a solid B. We have a reasonably solid upside in academics and athletics. We shore up the northeast. We're eager and available. A test case using UConn and UVA is a solid risk abatement strategy.

#3) If the Big Ten's interest in North Carolina begins and ends with UNC, that does little to bolster claims that the state (and its growth rate) is the answer to the B10's prayers. If North Carolina were the answer, the Big Ten would look to NC State next, not abandon the field. That alone tells me that the B10 sees the North Carolina market as a "nice-to-have" only.

#4) UNC to the Big Ten has the potential to be a huge blunder for the Big Ten. I won't (New Coke) bore everyone (the Edsel) with a compilation (Betamax) of the worst (the Segway) as those (the Homer) are well known (UNC to the Big Ten*).


* Future entry.

I like you're thinking here, makes sense on a lot of levels. No one can deny the cultural impact on market share, rivalries, general fit. Make no mistake, NC is a southern state.

The one solution here is that BiG goes big in NC and brings aboard Duke. If we look at the ACC today, the heart of that conference is Duke/UNC as a duo. It's one of the best rivalries in all of sports and would add an intense rivalry. Meanwhile they gain an Ivy level academic. From a pure marketing perspective, it's a no brainer. If you've ever been down to Charlotte or Raleigh, what you realize quickly is that it feels like half the population are transplants from the NE and the Midwest. While still very southern, it's evolving. It does feel like a stretch today, but Delany works with a crystal ball. This would buffer the blow of UNC adjusting to a starkly differing conference culture while offering UNC a nice chip to boot.

The SEC and the BiG would not be looking to create a similar product in that state - NC is still a hoops first state, tobacco road. While an NC St/SEC could certainly create some nice buzz, unlikely that it would trump the romance of what UNC/Duke means to the people of NC.

I like the optimism, but too much to gain. Not a bad recruiting basin either.

http://footballrecruiting.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1239398

 

[RegisteredUconn]

I don't think it's necessarily a problem having competition with the SEC. It's not a foregone conclusion that having an SEC team in the same state would hamper the Big Ten Network's profitability at all.

UNC would still be in demand in North Carolina and the cable networks would be forced to pick up the feed irregardless. If they suck, people watch (like Rutgers). UNC may lose some share to NCST, but as long as cable networks are still going to carry and charge subs for the Big Ten Network (an amount that would make money) then it's all fine and dandy. Besides, even if UNC football is below NCST football, basketball should remain high (or at least of high interest) and would be reason enough to add UNC.

UVA I am actually more skeptical about forcing cable to do anything in VA or DC. UVA may be Virginia's big public school, but honestly, nobody gives a rats about watching any of their sports. I don't have any official numbers, but from my experience VT has more (or at least a similar number of) fans.

I do understand that UVA fits the Big Ten profile school well, but I'm not sure it really helps the bottom line for sports profits. Maybe UVA/Maryland combination does push cable in DC, but I'm skeptical on if UVA adds a ton to that equation.

A couple of things I would urge you to consider:

Do not heavily weight expansion decisions based on the current model of content delivery. It will disappear. Cable companies will not rule the roost going forward. You will not be forced to pay for a package of chanels the way you are now. Would anybody here subscribe (unless they were available for free, and even then... ) to shopping and food channels if they weren't compelled to by the cable company? Satellite delivery is available. The company that piped content into your house lost its major leverage point as a content distributor when their physical tether to customers TVs was severed. Any conference that is making strategic membership decisions based on the ability to strong arm their product into customers homes (and wallets) via "packages" constructed by cable companies to maximize the company's profits/revenues but have little to do with the customers' actual viewing desires might as well turn over their expansion planning to John Swofford. Content delivery is about to become much more tightly coupled with customer wants. There is, or soon will be sufficient technology, to assure that Michigan fans living in Texas aren't condemned to watching Longhorns contests. Cable fees will not be the driving factor determining conference revenue and, therefore, should have a much smaller role in winnowing down new member invitation lists. Conferences surely understand that the end consumer will be paying based on what they watch and will adjust their planning accordingly. Geography will continue to play a major role in creating viewer demand

I agree, competing with the SEC over specific state markets isn't necessarily a bad thing, or one the B1G would lose. However, taking on the SEC in North Carolina (pretty much the SEC's home turf), isn't the fight the B1G should be picking. Facing off in Virginia (UVA/B1G vs VaTech/SEC) is a contest that gives the B1G much better odds. I think the SEC would be much more concerned taking on the B1G in VA than they would contesting North Carolina (with NC State). Think the SEC is interested in luring Michigan State away from the B1G? I realize it's not a perfect analogy but it's closer than people might first think.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

I like you're thinking here, makes sense on a lot of levels. No one can deny the cultural impact on market share, rivalries, general fit. Make no mistake, NC is a southern state.

The one solution here is that BiG goes big in NC and brings aboard Duke. If we look at the ACC today, the heart of that conference is Duke/UNC as a duo. It's one of the best rivalries in all of sports and would add an intense rivalry. Meanwhile they gain an Ivy level academic. From a pure marketing perspective, it's a no brainer. If you've ever been down to Charlotte or Raleigh, what you realize quickly is that it feels like half the population are transplants from the NE and the Midwest. While still very southern, it's evolving. It does feel like a stretch today, but Delany works with a crystal ball. This would buffer the blow of UNC adjusting to a starkly differing conference culture while offering UNC a nice chip to boot.

The SEC and the BiG would not be looking to create a similar product in that state - NC is still a hoops first state, tobacco road. While an NC St/SEC could certainly create some nice buzz, unlikely that it would trump the romance of what UNC/Duke means to the people of NC.

I like the optimism, but too much to gain. Not a bad recruiting basin either.

http://footballrecruiting.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1239398

One problem with a UNC/Duke solution is that adding two schools gets the B1G to 16 so, unless they are planning to go bigger, UVA is left out. Without UVA, the B1G's play in the huge market that is the northeast hinges primarily on RU and MD. If the B1G plans on going bigger, why start with UNC/Duke? That has all the earmarks of a Swofford play.

 

[RMoore1999]

Frank - I appreciate your insight and your undoubtedly superior knowledge about things Big Ten. I don't dispute that UNC would be a highly valued piece of property for the right conference. What I will dispute, and not through any insider knowledge but simply by applying common sense, is that the Big Ten "would expand immediately" if UNC were willing to join. I've come to the conclusion that UVA's partner in the Big Ten's next expansion will be UConn and not UNC despite arguing exactly as you are not two months ago. I thought UNC was the end game for the Big Ten and UVA was as much a link to get them there as a prize itself.

Reasons the Big Ten does not want UNC over UConn. For purposes of this discussion, I will assume that the SEC would like a North Carolina team and that the Big Ten would like UNC (even though I don't believe that). Even if the Big Ten is interested in North Carolina (the state), I think they would abandon that interest if UNC were not available. Given that assumption, these arguments will assume that NC State ends up in the SEC.

#1) UNC does not deliver the North Carolina market especially if the SEC picks up NC State. North Carolina (the state) is a better fit with the SEC. An SEC based NC State would be very dangerous competition for a UNC based Big Ten. It is much more likely that NC State football improves more dramatically in the SEC than UNC's does in the Big Ten. Quality of product is one of the drivers of interest in a team. Geography is another. North Carolina borders South Carolina and Tennessee. NC State will have a decided advantage in marketing games and generating state-wide "buzz" over UNC and the Big Ten. Put simply, regarding football, UNC in the Big Ten will play second fiddle to an SEC based NC State in the state of North Carolina and neither the Big Ten nor UNC want that.

#2) The Big Ten has made a bold and obvious play for the megalopolis that stretches from Washington D.C. to Boston. The region's 55 million (give or take) residents dwarfs North Carolina. What's more, NC's 10 million are more hotly contested (or soon will be if UNC goes to the Big Ten and NC State goes to the SEC) than the northeast's 55 million. What else is more is that the Big Ten's bold move is placed at risk if they fail to secure the region with an overwhelming show of force. Rutgers and Maryland do not constitute overwhelming force. Who wins the battle for the northeast super region? An ACC based UVA, Syracuse, and Boston College...+UConn? Or a Big Ten based Rutgers and Maryland? I'd say the outcome would not be a foregone conclusion.

Even if the Big Ten believed its northeast risks were manageable, why would they turn right around and request a second, even larger, helping by engaging the SEC in North Carolina? Does Hitler's invasion of Russia ring no bells at Big Ten HQ? Surely even the mighty B10 must have some misgivings regarding expansion into the south Atlantic coast. They are far too prudent to bet the next decades Rose Bowl checks on "Pony Boy" in the Kentucky Derby going off at 250 to 1.

So, assuming the B10 is interested in North Carolina (which I don't), what should they do to ameliorate the considerable risks? Obtain a proof of concept. Bring in UVA to get a baseline level of interest for the Big Ten in a southern market. They might also examine a variety of marketing tactics to see what moves the needle. UVA would likely require a partner. Who better than UConn? We pass the hygiene tests (academics, athletics, geography ...) with a solid B. We have a reasonably solid upside in academics and athletics. We shore up the northeast. We're eager and available. A test case using UConn and UVA is a solid risk abatement strategy.

#3) If the Big Ten's interest in North Carolina begins and ends with UNC, that does little to bolster claims that the state (and its growth rate) is the answer to the B10's prayers. If North Carolina were the answer, the Big Ten would look to NC State next, not abandon the field. That alone tells me that the B10 sees the North Carolina market as a "nice-to-have" only.

#4) UNC to the Big Ten has the potential to be a huge blunder for the Big Ten. I won't (New Coke) bore everyone (the Edsel) with a compilation (Betamax) of the worst (the Segway) as those (the Homer) are well known (UNC to the Big Ten*).


* Future entry.

Supposedly HuskyFanDan threw in the towel and abandoned the BY. Instead, he cleaned up his grammar/style and abducted Registered's identity...

 

[B1GEast]

Hearing UVA to B1G, if what I've heard is true, the ACC is about to get jail house raped. This could get ugly.