Virginia the key?

[gioff23]

Why does the Pac need to get to 16? They are probably the least vulnerable conference. They control the entire west coast from Washingto to California, fram the ocean to the Rockies. Why would they dilute their payday by adding members?

Another way to ask Q - why would they keep their revenues the same when they can grow them? Add the Ok and/or Tx schools, and think of the markets, revenues, recruiting pipleine and eyeballs to which you have gained exposure. So, its not diluting the pie, its increasing the pie. And I have always held that the PAC12 is the sleeper in all of this - they nearly got OU once, OU wants access to the Cali makret and pipeline. They, the Pac12, are the reason the B12 may feel compelled to move sooner rather than later.

 

[gioff23]

Swofford seemed to be playing 1990 checkers ... while Slive & Delaney were ratcheting up their game (and Larry Scott of the Pac 12). Rutgers? Look ... they are pond scum; but, they are far more valuable longterm (IMHO) than BC or SU. And so are we! You just simply cannot get the Revenue out of CNY. The Brand? I think the contrast in the ACC to the B1G has been amazing. That's why their cute little club is in danger. He doesn't have to worry about his games at MSG; he has to worry about watching his Tar Heels play Texas A&M as an Away Conference game.

Swofford was deemed a genius until MD left. What changed? Hmm, who did they let in to their cute little club last - not fully, just the tip, so to speak. You let the poison pill in to the room and bad things happen.

 

[Marty Jackson]

Every time I read this board, I'm constantly amazed by the consistent attitude from most here that, in order to get into Conference, you just have to tell them you are interested. Every time I read this board, I'm constantly amazed by the consistent attitude from most here that logic plays any part in the decisions that are made. And every time I read this board, I'm constantly amazed by the consistent understanding that the logic that is posted in whatever message is the only logic that can be considered. Wow!

constantly amazed huh... every time you read this board huh...
you must love coming here then.

 

[RMoore1999]

If everybody's trying to poach the ACC and schools are listening, why wouldn't the state of Virginia want to see its schools land in the highest revenue conferences -- one in the SEC and one in the B1G?

Politically, it might be difficult for one to leave the ACC and abandon the other in a diminished conference; but if both find a good home at the same time, then it's hard to turn down an extra $25 mn/year coming into the state.

Suppose it's UVa to the B1G and VaTech to the SEC. Then the decision-making moves to North Carolina and UNC, Duke, and NC State.

UNC and NC State also have a shared governing board and they will also demand that both schools find good homes. So though the SEC would much prefer UNC, if it only wants one state school in the state and B1G doesn't want NC State, UNC will be compelled by NC politicos to go B1G so that NC State can have an SEC home.

So B1G gets UNC and UVa for 16. But Duke is up for grabs. If they take Duke and UConn together they'd have a fantastic basketball conference and would cement the eastern seaboard. Duke is happy to be playing in NYC, they've always wanted east coast exposure. UNC is happy to have Duke in its new conference.

With the ACC broken and losing its top east coast schools, Notre Dame is independent again. They could align with the Catholic 7 for other sports. But now that the B1G has an East Coast presence, it's much more attractive to them. Let's say ND joins at some point. No telling who the partner might be (could Kansas be pulled from the B1G?) but let's say ND asks the B1G to rescue the other BCS Catholic football program, BC, bringing the B1G to 20 and giving teams a chance to play in Boston.

Other top ACC schools FSU, Clemson, Ga Tech, and whoever else the B12 finds attractive land there.

Fox has improved its position vis-a-vis ESPN tremendously. The SEC covers all of the South. the B12 picks up 6 teams for 7 eastern teams in a 16 team league. There's a new ACC/BE leftovers league formed of the best of the rest.

Too many variables to predict, but this seems like a plausible scenario. B1G, SEC, B12 negotiating amongst themselves and with Fox and ESPN about how to break up the ACC. University governing boards and state politicians figuring out their desires. Back contacts back and forth. They will find the best mix. I think the state of Virginia holds the best hand and can force one to the SEC, one to the B1G. Once North Carolina gives up on preserving the ACC, they follow a similar strategy. That leads other teams to jump for the B12. Dominoes may fall quickly.

But for Duke, this is pretty much what will happen. The key move though is UNC.

 

[Marty Jackson]

I agree it comes up a lot. My take is that those who bring it up are describing a solution before defining the problem.

kind of like the people who suggest that Uconn and Cincy will join the ACC once things start to move.
who knows... sounds logical until something else actually happens.

 

[Pudge]

The ONLY number that matters to me is when the PUBLIC & ECONOMIC forces bring College Football to go to at least an 8 team playoff. At that point, the Bowl configuration & the "inside the tent/outside the tent" aspect of this gets a hint of fresh air. You will find the Boise's and the TCUs some years knocking over Notre Dame easy. An Oregon gets hot in the playoff. Something. The sport is simply stale ... as is.

 

[freescooter]

Swofford seemed to be playing 1990 checkers ... while Slive & Delaney were ratcheting up their game (and Larry Scott of the Pac 12). Rutgers? Look ... they are pond scum; but, they are far more valuable longterm (IMHO) than BC or SU. And so are we! You just simply cannot get the Revenue out of CNY. The Brand? I think the contrast in the ACC to the B1G has been amazing. That's why their cute little club is in danger. He doesn't have to worry about his games at MSG; he has to worry about watching his Tar Heels play Texas A&M as an Away Conference game.

I think you are exaggerating Swofford's faults. He never had the hand those other conferences had. He had one team and a bunch of midgets...Remember Florida State went 7 years before losing 2 ACC games. He had a strategy to build a truly Atlantic Coast Conference. And remember when he made the BC/Syracuse/Miami move, (substituting VTech for Cuse was not his plan it was forced on him by Virginia's Governor) UConn wasn't a real option and Rutgers was a laughing stock. So he went after the most logical additions. As I said, he could have backfilled any ofUConn, Rutgers, Pitt and VaTech any time he wanted to finish his eastern seaboard league if UConn or Rutgers actually became worth taking or the market justified it. They were not valuable at all in 2003. Nor was UConn for football. As it is he still has a league that is workable and one that can survive all but the most dramatic multi-pronged raid. And witht the excpetion of the Big 10 is the most geographically logical Louisville not withstanding. And is possibly in a better position to survive than the B-12. How long do you think they would be viable if the PAC and/or Big decided to make a deal for Texas and Oklahoma? I don't like the guy...he reminds me of one of those phony southern preachers on late night tv, but trying to claim he has not done a very nice job is just not true.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Why would the B1G go head-to-head with the SEC on the SEC's home turf? I'm speaking specifically about North Carolina. No matter which North Carolina school (UNC or State) goes to the B1G, granting your assumption that the other goes to the SEC, how is that good for the B1G? The B1G has zero interest in competing for North Carolina with the SEC. The reason is the northeast corridor and that's why the Virginia schools will likely split up with UVA to the B1G and Tech (along with UNC or State) to the SEC. UVA is not UNC. They have strong connections with D.C. and thus the northeast corridor.

The marketing guys in the B1G understand that Rutgers and Maryland aren't enough to secure the northeast. They aren't about to through away their UMD/Rutty investment by failing to properly make use of it. They aren't about to expose such a strategic move to sniping, skirmishes, and full fledged pitched battles by competitors from the SEC and ACC. IT MAKES NO SENSE!

UVA is going to the B1G. Bet on it. Still, two DC/Balto...Philly schools and oneNYC/Philly schools aren't enough. The northern flank is vulnerable as long as Syra, BC, and especially UCONN are free to distract and dilute the B1G brand. The final shoe is UCONN. There is no other northern northeaster school that fits the B1G profile. Like UVA, UCONN is going to the B1G. Take it to the bank because it's the only move that makes sense.

NC is a state in transition from a traditional southern state, think of good ol’ Senator Jesse Helms, to melting pot of southern traditionalists and Northern and Midwestern transplants. Just look at the 2012 last Presidential Election map, a big blue areas centered around the Research Triangle and Charlotte metro surrounded by a while lot of red.
http://www.politico.com/2012-election/results/president/north-carolina/
That is why there will be a massive political fight over UNC’s future should the ACC be broken-up between the BiG camp (appears to be supported by Academic leadership) and the SEC camp (appears to be supported by the Athletic leadership). Will be less of an issue for Duke, who views itself as an ‘Ivy’ like school that draws a lot of students from the Northeast and sends a lot of graduates to the Northeast (I think Duke law has a program that helps grads take the New York bar upon graduation). NC State is on the opposite side of Duke, they are a SEC camp school.
The migration of folks from the Northeast and Midwest to NC is the #1 reason why the BiG wants UNC. In 1982, Michigan’s population was 9.2 million, in 2012 it was 9.8 million (+6.5%). NC went from 5.8 million in 1982 to 9.7 million in 2012 (+67%).
Virginia mirrors NC, except that it is about 10 or so years ahead of NC, primarily due to the migration of people into the DC area to feed the job monster that the US Federal Government is.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Why does the Pac need to get to 16? They are probably the least vulnerable conference. They control the entire west coast from Washingto to California, fram the ocean to the Rockies. Why would they dilute their payday by adding members?

For two reasons, #1 to keep up with the Jones, and #2, like any business, they need to increase their revenue stream to keep their shareholders, i.e. membership, happy.

 

[The Funster]

I think you are exaggerating Swofford's faults. He never had the hand those other conferences had. He had one team and a bunch of midgets...Remember Florida State went 7 years before losing 2 ACC games. He had a strategy to build a truly Atlantic Coast Conference. And remember when he made the BC/Syracuse/Miami move, (substituting VTech for Cuse was not his plan it was forced on him by Virginia's Governor) UConn wasn't a real option and Rutgers was a laughing stock. So he went after the most logical additions. As I said, he could have backfilled any ofUConn, Rutgers, Pitt and VaTech any time he wanted to finish his eastern seaboard league if UConn or Rutgers actually became worth taking or the market justified it. They were not valuable at all in 2003. Nor was UConn for football. As it is he still has a league that is workable and one that can survive all but the most dramatic multi-pronged raid. And witht the excpetion of the Big 10 is the most geographically logical Louisville not withstanding. And is possibly in a better position to survive than the B-12. How long do you think they would be viable if the PAC and/or Big decided to make a deal for Texas and Oklahoma? I don't like the guy...he reminds me of one of those phony southern preachers on late night tv, but trying to claim he has not done a very nice job is just not true.

BC was a mistake. Many of us already knew that support in their own city was lukewarm at best. But hey, they had competitive football and OK recent hoops success. What was the plan for BC? They were an outlier in a crappy market and while no one could have foressen that BC would die on the vine so quickly even if Cuse came on board instead of VTech I don't think it would have helped BC that much. My criticism of Swofford doesn't really revolve around the first slimy raid but moreso around the second.

First off, Swofford was working under the assumption that the Big 12 was going to get ripped apart. That was his first mistake. Had he worked under the assumption that the Big 12 would have stayed together, he may not have made any move. He wouldn't have had to. Instead he made his move and when the FB schools groused he thought he'd try to appease them with a massive TV deal but that only made it worse and his conference has been under pressure ever since.

On top of that, Swofford either failed to cast a vision for his constituents, catered to Tobacco Road and/or capitulated to two of the new weak sisters when they discussed which teams to add. He was weak. OK, Syracuse was always on the table. Great hoops, weak FB but still allegedly a "brand" for FB. UConn was the other but wait, BC has an issue with "turf", Shalala's overrated sanction factory still had issues with UConn so Swofford allows Pitt to get picked. The smart play then would have been to pick WVU and either UConn or Syracuse, with Syracuse the most likely. But the ACC never considered WVU and yet they conveniently forgot why they didn't seriously consider WVU when they selected Louisville to replace MD. where is the vision? Where is the consistency in selection? It appears that teams were selected to appease various elements within the ACC and those elements varied based on previous selections!

Finally, I think Swofford messed up again when he moved for Louisville so quickly. I'm no lawyer but if I want to enforce that exit fee I may have a better case if I don't bring in the next warm body in less than a week.

Sorry, Swofford has screwed up at every turn. He may be better than Tranghese and Marinatto but he pales in comparison compared to his current peers.

 

[SubbaBub]

I actually don't expect Virginia to make a change unless they feel forced. The thing about the ACC is that its old southern core is pretty committed to the conference. That's not the case with FSU probably, but I think even they like it sort of...gives them legitimacy in a way. Doesn't mean they wouldn't leave under the right circumstances though. And Virginia is much more of a Southern institution than say Maryland...Maryland is pretty urban, part of the inner Washington DC metro area and if you have ever been there it has a much more urban feel, and northern feel than genteel Virginia. Actually in many ways excluding location and the frigging corps of cadets, VaTech is more like an eastern/northern school than UVa in my estimation which is why they were not a bad fit in the old Big East. The cadet thing though is very southern...

Agree, UVA and Uconn to big 10 make sense, but there are so many scenarios out there, but to me it does make sense.

When has common sense and rational thought driven conference realignment?!

I was almost optimistic there for a second, damn you.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

For two reasons, #1 to keep up with the Jones, and #2, like any business, they need to increase their revenue stream to keep their shareholders, i.e. membership, happy.

Why would the existing member schools of a 12 team conference with revenues of, for the sake of argument, $120MM per year be happy about adding two schools so that total revenues would increase by $10MM per year?

 

[RegisteredUconn]

NC is a state in transition from a traditional southern state, think of good ol’ Senator Jesse Helms, to melting pot of southern traditionalists and Northern and Midwestern transplants. Just look at the 2012 last Presidential Election map, a big blue areas centered around the Research Triangle and Charlotte metro surrounded by a while lot of red.
http://www.politico.com/2012-election/results/president/north-carolina/
That is why there will be a massive political fight over UNC’s future should the ACC be broken-up between the BiG camp (appears to be supported by Academic leadership) and the SEC camp (appears to be supported by the Athletic leadership). Will be less of an issue for Duke, who views itself as an ‘Ivy’ like school that draws a lot of students from the Northeast and sends a lot of graduates to the Northeast (I think Duke law has a program that helps grads take the New York bar upon graduation). NC State is on the opposite side of Duke, they are a SEC camp school.
The migration of folks from the Northeast and Midwest to NC is the #1 reason why the BiG wants UNC. In 1982, Michigan’s population was 9.2 million, in 2012 it was 9.8 million (+6.5%). NC went from 5.8 million in 1982 to 9.7 million in 2012 (+67%).
Virginia mirrors NC, except that it is about 10 or so years ahead of NC, primarily due to the migration of people into the DC area to feed the job monster that the US Federal Government is.

Michigan going from 9.2 to 9.8 million over 20 years while North Carolina went from 5.8 to 9.7 million over the same time period is a red herring. The B1G isn't interested in Tobacco Road. Why would they be when there is a market 5 times that size lying virtually unattended? Why would they rush off to contest North Carolina, a less than satisfactory cultural fit at best, with the SEC, and the ACC, and conceivably the Big 12 too for a market seemingly on track for growth of a measly 2 million souls over the next decade or so when they could have 50 million contested only by a BCS equivalent of a boy scout troup? It makes absolutely no sense. In other words, assertions of UNC to the B1G are logical nonsense.

UVA, on the other hand, makes perfect sense for exactly the reason you cite. The Cavaliers are a part of the northeast region geographically even if their roots are southern. They will be a much easier ship to turn. That's not to say they will be easy. They won't. That's why this second phase of the B1G's assimilation of the northeast, the phase where UVA and UConn become members may take longer than Rutgers and Maryland. UVA will be harder to convince than MD was. However, what the B1G has working for it this time is that Maryland's defection clearly shows the ACC's days of football relevance are numbered. I think you'll fit in with the B1G just fine Mr. Conehead.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The ACC isn't breaking up. ESPN will step up with more cash, and UConn will be playing rivalry games against ECU and Tulane for the next 10 years.

 

[uconnbill]

I would too, but to say he has been a bad commissioner is just totally wrong. In 5 years which conference has a greater chance of still being in existence, the ACC or BE4.0? He has had a strategy, he followed it and he's created a defensible league that while not perfect, is considered a Big 5 and, one which almost any current Big East member would join in a heartbeat. Sure if the Big and the SEC and the B-12 all come gunning they are screwed but that is what it would take most likely. And I think that's a stretch.

Please you give him too much credit. The ACC did what ESPN help them do and nothing more. This was about control and ESPN now has most of the control.

 

[frankthetank]

RegisteredUConn - As someone that follows the Big Ten very closely, your position couldn't be farther from the truth. If UNC were willing to join the Big Ten, the conference would expand immediately without question. They are a massive prize. Short of adding Notre Dame or Texas, adding UNC would likely be the next on the list for the Big Ten of they could have anyone. My strong feeling is that who the Big Ten wants to get to 16 are UVA and UNC. The thing is that the notion of adding UNC (who the SEC would also covet) is exponentially more difficult than what a lot of Armageddon realignment observers believe - they have Texas-like influence within the ACC and as Texas showed, such influence over a conference can be even more important than making the most TV dollars possible. Make no mistake about it, though - the Big Ten would add UNC immediately if they had the opportunity. Lest we forget that Jim Delany played basketball for Dean Smith at UNC - he knows the school's value as much as Swofford does.

 

[RS9999X]

FSU and V Tech are the only Tier1 properties. .Miami potentially. Clemson
Is a regional power. The rest are cable carriage fee plays in split fandom states like VA and NC and GA

Sent from my Lumia 920 via Windows 8. Now bite me Apple Droids.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Why would the existing member schools of a 12 team conference with revenues of, for the sake of argument, $120MM per year be happy about adding two schools so that total revenues would increase by $10MM per year?

When nearly bankrupt state governments do this, University President’s gladly take the extra $10 million…
http://www.dailycal.org/2011/12/13/uc-budget-slashed-by-100-million-mid-year/

 

[HuskyHawk]

FSU and V Tech are the only Tier1 properties. .Miami potentially. Clemson
Is a regional power. The rest are cable carriage fee plays in split fandom states like VA and NC and GA

Sent from my Lumia 920 via Windows 8. Now bite me Apple Droids.

What? In the ACC? UNC is the most valuable school, by far. VT isn't even close to the value of UVA.

This is a complicated game. Right now, the B1G probably does view UVA and UNC as great expansion targets. Those schools, remaining southern in culture and having influence in the ACC (especially UNC) likely want to stay where they are. The B1G is probably fine with that, and with the ACC surviving, but does not want the SEC to claim UVA and UNC (or to get UT).

Swofford knows his position is precarious, and that's why the ACC made the ND deal. ND to the ACC for football ends the concept of the ACC breaking up. It's the Ace in the hole. If it looks like a raid on the ACC is coming, expect an ultimatum to ND. They will need to join the ACC or B1G outright (or Big 12, but I doubt it).

The B12 is not out of the woods. And let's remember that they once looked as vulnerable as the BE. UT is a blessing and a curse, just like ND is to the ACC. It has so much power it can hold a league by itself. Yet that power makes the league less desireable to those like Mizzou and A&M that had other options.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Michigan going from 9.2 to 9.8 million over 20 years while North Carolina went from 5.8 to 9.7 million over the same time period is a red herring. The B1G isn't interested in Tobacco Road. Why would they be when there is a market 5 times that size lying virtually unattended? Why would they rush off to contest North Carolina, a less than satisfactory cultural fit at best, with the SEC, and the ACC, and conceivably the Big 12 too for a market seemingly on track for growth of a measly 2 million souls over the next decade or so when they could have 50 million contested only by a BCS equivalent of a boy scout troup? It makes absolutely no sense. In other words, assertions of UNC to the B1G are logical nonsense.

UVA, on the other hand, makes perfect sense for exactly the reason you cite. The Cavaliers are a part of the northeast region geographically even if their roots are southern. They will be a much easier ship to turn. That's not to say they will be easy. They won't. That's why this second phase of the B1G's assimilation of the northeast, the phase where UVA and UConn become members may take longer than Rutgers and Maryland. UVA will be harder to convince than MD was. However, what the B1G has working for it this time is that Maryland's defection clearly shows the ACC's days of football relevance are numbered. I think you'll fit in with the B1G just fine Mr. Conehead.

I believe we all agree that UVA to the B1G makes sense on a variety of levels…
As for UNC to the B1G, it is a gamble. The question for the B1G is it worth the risk going toe to toe with the SEC (and possibly the XII) in a southern leaning state, especially, from a political standpoint, UNC’s little brother, NC State, will have to be assured a safe home (SEC or XII) should the ACC collapse. In addition, the B1G may have to agree to add Duke also as an incentive. The upside is that UNC has the population growth, i.e. TV cable subscribers, that the Midwest currently does not have, UNC’s status as a ‘public ivy’ fits well with the BiG’s profile, and UNC is a unique, national sports brand.
I am not saying that further entry into the Northeast does not make sense for the B1G; but, the Northeast is a pro sports market and lacks a heavyweight collegiate national brand. UConn, BC (vulgar langue edited), and Syracuse are the closest; but, they are below the level of Texas, ND, Ohio St, Michigan and UNC.

 

[RMoore1999]

RegisteredUConn - As someone that follows the Big Ten very closely, your position couldn't be farther from the truth. If UNC were willing to join the Big Ten, the conference would expand immediately without question. They are a massive prize. Short of adding Notre Dame or Texas, adding UNC would likely be the next on the list for the Big Ten of they could have anyone. My strong feeling is that who the Big Ten wants to get to 16 are UVA and UNC. The thing is that the notion of adding UNC (who the SEC would also covet) is exponentially more difficult than what a lot of Armageddon realignment observers believe - they have Texas-like influence within the ACC and as Texas showed, such influence over a conference can be even more important than making the most TV dollars possible. Make no mistake about it, though - the Big Ten would add UNC immediately if they had the opportunity. Lest we forget that Jim Delany played basketball for Dean Smith at UNC - he knows the school's value as much as Swofford does.

Frank, I confess at the outset that I am an "Armageddon realignment observer". Whether its a week, 4 months or 7 years, massive movement is inevitable. Your Texas - UNC comparison is faulted in that Texas has, and will likely always be able to generate, boatloads of cash; UNC is nowhere near the same league in terms of financial independence. So while they both exert great influence within their respective conferences, and both are highly appealing expansion candidates to virtually every expansion hungry conference, UNC is much more susceptible to the vagaries of conference realignment than is Texas.

That said, I think the B1G is UNC's most likely ultimate resting place. However, RegisteredUConn does a better job than anyone else I've read in explaining why Delaney is likely quite interested in Connecticut, if not as #16 or #18, then as the B1G's 20th member.

 

[UConnJim]

Couple of points.

I agree with Frank. The prize for either the Big 10 or SEC is UVa and UNC. Clearly, the SEC would target the flagship universities over VT and NC St.

I can't see UNC joining the Big 10 as it is a northern conference. I can see them joining the SEC.

The ACC has too many private schools (5 excluding ND), contains only 2 true flagship state universities (UVa and UNC), has 4 schools located in NC, and has the second tier state universities in seven states (Florida, Georgia, Virginia, NC, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania) which is a LT revenue problem especially if conference cable channels are the trend.

If the ACC wanted ND all-in for football, they would not have invited them as a non-football member. Right now, ND would be feeling the heat to go all-in to a conference if the ACC did not invite them. The ACC blowing up is not a problem for ND as then it becomes Big East 2.0, and ND is ok with that conference for their Olympic sports. This college football season with ND playing for the BCS championship only solidified ND's position as an independent.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

When nearly bankrupt state governments do this, University President’s gladly take the extra $10 million…
http://www.dailycal.org/2011/12/13/uc-budget-slashed-by-100-million-mid-year/

If you do the math in my example, the individual schools lose money (130MM divided by 14 schools versus 120MM divided by 12 schools) even though the conference itself increases revenue. It has the potential to be a conflict of interest between the conference and the individual members...but I'm sure the accountants know that already.

 

[Vuce]

they have Texas-like influence within the ACC and as Texas showed, such influence over a conference can be even more important than making the most TV dollars possible.

Yeah UNC has so much influence that when they wanted and voted for Uconn to join the ACC in the last vote, the league took Louisville.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

RegisteredUConn - As someone that follows the Big Ten very closely, your position couldn't be farther from the truth. If UNC were willing to join the Big Ten, the conference would expand immediately without question. They are a massive prize. Short of adding Notre Dame or Texas, adding UNC would likely be the next on the list for the Big Ten of they could have anyone. My strong feeling is that who the Big Ten wants to get to 16 are UVA and UNC. The thing is that the notion of adding UNC (who the SEC would also covet) is exponentially more difficult than what a lot of Armageddon realignment observers believe - they have Texas-like influence within the ACC and as Texas showed, such influence over a conference can be even more important than making the most TV dollars possible. Make no mistake about it, though - the Big Ten would add UNC immediately if they had the opportunity. Lest we forget that Jim Delany played basketball for Dean Smith at UNC - he knows the school's value as much as Swofford does.

Frank - I appreciate your insight and your undoubtedly superior knowledge about things Big Ten. I don't dispute that UNC would be a highly valued piece of property for the right conference. What I will dispute, and not through any insider knowledge but simply by applying common sense, is that the Big Ten "would expand immediately" if UNC were willing to join. I've come to the conclusion that UVA's partner in the Big Ten's next expansion will be UConn and not UNC despite arguing exactly as you are not two months ago. I thought UNC was the end game for the Big Ten and UVA was as much a link to get them there as a prize itself.

Reasons the Big Ten does not want UNC over UConn. For purposes of this discussion, I will assume that the SEC would like a North Carolina team and that the Big Ten would like UNC (even though I don't believe that). Even if the Big Ten is interested in North Carolina (the state), I think they would abandon that interest if UNC were not available. Given that assumption, these arguments will assume that NC State ends up in the SEC.

#1) UNC does not deliver the North Carolina market especially if the SEC picks up NC State. North Carolina (the state) is a better fit with the SEC. An SEC based NC State would be very dangerous competition for a UNC based Big Ten. It is much more likely that NC State football improves more dramatically in the SEC than UNC's does in the Big Ten. Quality of product is one of the drivers of interest in a team. Geography is another. North Carolina borders South Carolina and Tennessee. NC State will have a decided advantage in marketing games and generating state-wide "buzz" over UNC and the Big Ten. Put simply, regarding football, UNC in the Big Ten will play second fiddle to an SEC based NC State in the state of North Carolina and neither the Big Ten nor UNC want that.

#2) The Big Ten has made a bold and obvious play for the megalopolis that stretches from Washington D.C. to Boston. The region's 55 million (give or take) residents dwarfs North Carolina. What's more, NC's 10 million are more hotly contested (or soon will be if UNC goes to the Big Ten and NC State goes to the SEC) than the northeast's 55 million. What else is more is that the Big Ten's bold move is placed at risk if they fail to secure the region with an overwhelming show of force. Rutgers and Maryland do not constitute overwhelming force. Who wins the battle for the northeast super region? An ACC based UVA, Syracuse, and Boston College...+UConn? Or a Big Ten based Rutgers and Maryland? I'd say the outcome would not be a foregone conclusion.

Even if the Big Ten believed its northeast risks were manageable, why would they turn right around and request a second, even larger, helping by engaging the SEC in North Carolina? Does Hitler's invasion of Russia ring no bells at Big Ten HQ? Surely even the mighty B10 must have some misgivings regarding expansion into the south Atlantic coast. They are far too prudent to bet the next decades Rose Bowl checks on "Pony Boy" in the Kentucky Derby going off at 250 to 1.

So, assuming the B10 is interested in North Carolina (which I don't), what should they do to ameliorate the considerable risks? Obtain a proof of concept. Bring in UVA to get a baseline level of interest for the Big Ten in a southern market. They might also examine a variety of marketing tactics to see what moves the needle. UVA would likely require a partner. Who better than UConn? We pass the hygiene tests (academics, athletics, geography ...) with a solid B. We have a reasonably solid upside in academics and athletics. We shore up the northeast. We're eager and available. A test case using UConn and UVA is a solid risk abatement strategy.

#3) If the Big Ten's interest in North Carolina begins and ends with UNC, that does little to bolster claims that the state (and its growth rate) is the answer to the B10's prayers. If North Carolina were the answer, the Big Ten would look to NC State next, not abandon the field. That alone tells me that the B10 sees the North Carolina market as a "nice-to-have" only.

#4) UNC to the Big Ten has the potential to be a huge blunder for the Big Ten. I won't (New Coke) bore everyone (the Edsel) with a compilation (Betamax) of the worst (the Segway) as those (the Homer) are well known (UNC to the Big Ten*).


* Future entry.