Virginia the key?

[pj]

If everybody's trying to poach the ACC and schools are listening, why wouldn't the state of Virginia want to see its schools land in the highest revenue conferences -- one in the SEC and one in the B1G?

Politically, it might be difficult for one to leave the ACC and abandon the other in a diminished conference; but if both find a good home at the same time, then it's hard to turn down an extra $25 mn/year coming into the state.

Suppose it's UVa to the B1G and VaTech to the SEC. Then the decision-making moves to North Carolina and UNC, Duke, and NC State.

UNC and NC State also have a shared governing board and they will also demand that both schools find good homes. So though the SEC would much prefer UNC, if it only wants one state school in the state and B1G doesn't want NC State, UNC will be compelled by NC politicos to go B1G so that NC State can have an SEC home.

So B1G gets UNC and UVa for 16. But Duke is up for grabs. If they take Duke and UConn together they'd have a fantastic basketball conference and would cement the eastern seaboard. Duke is happy to be playing in NYC, they've always wanted east coast exposure. UNC is happy to have Duke in its new conference.

With the ACC broken and losing its top east coast schools, Notre Dame is independent again. They could align with the Catholic 7 for other sports. But now that the B1G has an East Coast presence, it's much more attractive to them. Let's say ND joins at some point. No telling who the partner might be (could Kansas be pulled from the B1G?) but let's say ND asks the B1G to rescue the other BCS Catholic football program, BC, bringing the B1G to 20 and giving teams a chance to play in Boston.

Other top ACC schools FSU, Clemson, Ga Tech, and whoever else the B12 finds attractive land there.

Fox has improved its position vis-a-vis ESPN tremendously. The SEC covers all of the South. the B12 picks up 6 teams for 7 eastern teams in a 16 team league. There's a new ACC/BE leftovers league formed of the best of the rest.

Too many variables to predict, but this seems like a plausible scenario. B1G, SEC, B12 negotiating amongst themselves and with Fox and ESPN about how to break up the ACC. University governing boards and state politicians figuring out their desires. Back contacts back and forth. They will find the best mix. I think the state of Virginia holds the best hand and can force one to the SEC, one to the B1G. Once North Carolina gives up on preserving the ACC, they follow a similar strategy. That leads other teams to jump for the B12. Dominoes may fall quickly.

 

[The Funster]

Plausible scenario but, IMO, any future realignment has to take into consideration how the PAC gets to sixteen. I also don't see the ACC going away just morphing into some kind of ACC/OldBE conglomeration.

Whatever happens it's going to get messier than it has already gotten. Within 10 years, college sports will call for a do-over. Maybe I'm dreaming but what has happened with realignment is stupid.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

If everybody's trying to poach the ACC and schools are listening, why wouldn't the state of Virginia want to see its schools land in the highest revenue conferences -- one in the SEC and one in the B1G?

Politically, it might be difficult for one to leave the ACC and abandon the other in a diminished conference; but if both find a good home at the same time, then it's hard to turn down an extra $25 mn/year coming into the state.

Suppose it's UVa to the B1G and VaTech to the SEC. Then the decision-making moves to North Carolina and UNC, Duke, and NC State.

UNC and NC State also have a shared governing board and they will also demand that both schools find good homes. So though the SEC would much prefer UNC, if it only wants one state school in the state and B1G doesn't want NC State, UNC will be compelled by NC politicos to go B1G so that NC State can have an SEC home.

So B1G gets UNC and UVa for 16. But Duke is up for grabs. If they take Duke and UConn together they'd have a fantastic basketball conference and would cement the eastern seaboard. Duke is happy to be playing in NYC, they've always wanted east coast exposure. UNC is happy to have Duke in its new conference.

With the ACC broken and losing its top east coast schools, Notre Dame is independent again. They could align with the Catholic 7 for other sports. But now that the B1G has an East Coast presence, it's much more attractive to them. Let's say ND joins at some point. No telling who the partner might be (could Kansas be pulled from the B1G?) but let's say ND asks the B1G to rescue the other BCS Catholic football program, BC, bringing the B1G to 20 and giving teams a chance to play in Boston.

Other top ACC schools FSU, Clemson, Ga Tech, and whoever else the B12 finds attractive land there.

Fox has improved its position vis-a-vis ESPN tremendously. The SEC covers all of the South. the B12 picks up 6 teams for 7 eastern teams in a 16 team league. There's a new ACC/BE leftovers league formed of the best of the rest.

Too many variables to predict, but this seems like a plausible scenario. B1G, SEC, B12 negotiating amongst themselves and with Fox and ESPN about how to break up the ACC. University governing boards and state politicians figuring out their desires. Back contacts back and forth. They will find the best mix. I think the state of Virginia holds the best hand and can force one to the SEC, one to the B1G. Once North Carolina gives up on preserving the ACC, they follow a similar strategy. That leads other teams to jump for the B12. Dominoes may fall quickly.

Why would the B1G go head-to-head with the SEC on the SEC's home turf? I'm speaking specifically about North Carolina. No matter which North Carolina school (UNC or State) goes to the B1G, granting your assumption that the other goes to the SEC, how is that good for the B1G? The B1G has zero interest in competing for North Carolina with the SEC. The reason is the northeast corridor and that's why the Virginia schools will likely split up with UVA to the B1G and Tech (along with UNC or State) to the SEC. UVA is not UNC. They have strong connections with D.C. and thus the northeast corridor.

The marketing guys in the B1G understand that Rutgers and Maryland aren't enough to secure the northeast. They aren't about to through away their UMD/Rutty investment by failing to properly make use of it. They aren't about to expose such a strategic move to sniping, skirmishes, and full fledged pitched battles by competitors from the SEC and ACC. IT MAKES NO SENSE!

UVA is going to the B1G. Bet on it. Still, two DC/Balto...Philly schools and oneNYC/Philly schools aren't enough. The northern flank is vulnerable as long as Syra, BC, and especially UCONN are free to distract and dilute the B1G brand. The final shoe is UCONN. There is no other northern northeaster school that fits the B1G profile. Like UVA, UCONN is going to the B1G. Take it to the bank because it's the only move that makes sense.

 

[freescooter]

I actually don't expect Virginia to make a change unless they feel forced. The thing about the ACC is that its old southern core is pretty committed to the conference. That's not the case with FSU probably, but I think even they like it sort of...gives them legitimacy in a way. Doesn't mean they wouldn't leave under the right circumstances though. And Virginia is much more of a Southern institution than say Maryland...Maryland is pretty urban, part of the inner Washington DC metro area and if you have ever been there it has a much more urban feel, and northern feel than genteel Virginia. Actually in many ways excluding location and the frigging corps of cadets, VaTech is more like an eastern/northern school than UVa in my estimation which is why they were not a bad fit in the old Big East. The cadet thing though is very southern...

 

[B1GEast]

Agree, UVA and Uconn to big 10 make sense, but there are so many scenarios out there, but to me it does make sense.

 

[UConnSportsGuy]

Take it to the bank because it's the only move that makes sense.

When has common sense and rational thought driven conference realignment?!

 

[RegisteredUconn]

IMO, any future realignment has to take into consideration how the PAC gets to sixteen.

Why does the Pac need to get to 16? They are probably the least vulnerable conference. They control the entire west coast from Washingto to California, fram the ocean to the Rockies. Why would they dilute their payday by adding members?

 

[freescooter]

Agree, UVA and Uconn to big 10 make sense, but there are so many scenarios out there, but to me it does make sense.

I don't see Virginia at all...unless they see the ACC falling all around them. And I think UConn is a long shot too, though we'd go in a heartbeat...Warde would lick the yellow line down the middle of I-90 all the way to Chicago if it got us in the Big 10...as would most UConn fans for that matter...but virginia would be a fish out of water in the Big 10...they would be like BC in the old ACC, a total misfit. But we'll see.

 

[The Funster]

Why does the Pac need to get to 16? They are probably the least vulnerable conference. They control the entire west coast from Washingto to California, fram the ocean to the Rockies. Why would they dilute their payday by adding members?

There is always talk about the 4x16 conference configuration. It's one of the most important criteria for the supposedly eventual NCAA breakaway by the big four conferences. Unless the PAC gets to 16 that isn't happening.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

When has common sense and rational thought driven conference realignment?!

You're thinking like we're already in the ACC where haste and impulse are the foundation blocks of decision making. MD and Rutty were absolutely the right moves for the B1G. There are no two schools that were better adds for the B1G. None. Likewise, Texas A&M and Mizzou were great moves by the SEC. Texas might have been a better move if there were some guarantee that they would play nice with their conference mates. Texas might have done more to destabalize and consume the conference than anything else. If you think Oklahoma would be better long term asset than Missouri, think again. The Pac made the best possible additions in Utah and Colo. needed to get to a conf. championship game. Only the ACC, the comic relief of conference realignment, has proceded with muddled, block-headed logic...starting with Miami and BC then backing that up with Pittacuse. Are you kidding me? Syracuse and Pitt over Rutty and UConn? The boys in Boston must be trying to deliver the "curse of the Bambino" version 2.0.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

I don't see Virginia at all...unless they see the ACC falling all around them. And I think UConn is a long shot too, though we'd go in a heartbeat...Warde would lick the yellow line down the middle of I-90 all the way to Chicago if it got us in the Big 10...as would most UConn fans for that matter...but virginia would be a fish out of water in the Big 10...they would be like BC in the old ACC, a total misfit. But we'll see.

Not with a strong pod consisting of Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers, and UConn they wouldn't. A period of adjustment, yes. A fish out of water, no.

 

[Pudge]

Why do you keep bringing up dilution?

Every time the Big conferences have added a School, the Network involved magically opens up their contract. (as if they were at the table all along). Total elasticity. Shows there is still more appetite for these moves.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

There is always talk about the 4x16 conference configuration. It's one of the most important criteria for the supposedly eventual NCAA breakaway by the big four conferences. Unless the PAC gets to 16 that isn't happening.

I don't think there's anything anywhere like a consensus around 4x16. 4 by 16 is just pretty mathematics like some fractal graph. Realignment has a crapload of unknowns and unintended consequences yet to uncover and understand before some final configuration begins to emerge from the mist.

 

[geordi]

Every time I read this board, I'm constantly amazed by the consistent attitude from most here that, in order to get into XYZ Conference, you just have to tell them you are interested. Every time I read this board, I'm constantly amazed by the consistent attitude from most here that logic plays any part in the decisions that are made. And every time I read this board, I'm constantly amazed by the consistent understanding that the logic that is posted in whatever message is the only logic that can be considered. Wow!

 

[The Funster]

You're thinking like we're already in the ACC where haste and impulse are the foundation blocks of decision making. MD and Rutty were absolutely the right moves for the B1G. There are no two schools that were better adds for the B1G. None. Likewise, Texas A&M and Mizzou were great moves by the SEC. Texas might have been a better move if there were some guarantee that they would play nice with their conference mates. Texas might have done more to destabalize and consume the conference than anything else. If you think Oklahoma would be better long term asset than Missouri, think again. The Pac made the best possible additions in Utah and Colo. needed to get to a conf. championship game. Only the ACC, the comic relief of conference realignment, has proceded with muddled, block-headed logic...starting with Miami and BC then backing that up with Pittacuse. Are you kidding me? Syracuse and Pitt over Rutty and UConn? The boys in Boston must be trying to deliver the "curse of the Bambino" version 2.0.

This is why I could not understand why a lot of people were swooning over Swofford when this board was born. Swofford was not a "visionary" and was not "ahead of the curve". He is a bumbling reactionary who was in over his head and he cannot lead his constituents to safety.

 

[The Funster]

I don't think there's anything anywhere like a consensus around 4x16. 4 by 16 is just pretty mathematics like some fractal graph. Realignment has a crapload of unknowns and unintended consequences yet to uncover and understand before some final configuration begins to emerge from the mist.

I never said anything about consensus. However, the 4x16 configuration comes up often, especially in the breakaway scenarios.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

Why do you keep bringing up dilution?

Every time the Big conferences have added a School, the Network involved magically opens up their contract. (as if they were at the table all along). Total elasticity. Shows there is still more appetite for these moves.

No such thing as total elasticity. Conferences must consider more that just today's contract. Nobody wants to be the poor sonofabitch who discovers the inflection point in the elasticity curve.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

I never said anything about consensus. However, the 4x16 configuration comes up often, especially in the breakaway scenarios.

I agree it comes up a lot. My take is that those who bring it up are describing a solution before defining the problem.

 

[pj]

Every time I read this board, I'm constantly amazed by the consistent attitude from most here that, in order to get into XYZ Conference, you just have to tell them you are interested. Every time I read this board, I'm constantly amazed by the consistent attitude from most here that logic plays any part in the decisions that are made. And every time I read this board, I'm constantly amazed by the consistent understanding that the logic that is posted in whatever message is the only logic that can be considered. Wow!

The only part of that that is accurate is that we think logic plays a part in the decisions. Everything else is the reverse of the truth.

 

[freescooter]

This is why I could not understand why a lot of people were swooning over Swofford when this board was born. Swofford was not a "visionary" and was not "ahead of the curve". He is a bumbling reactionary who was in over his head and he cannot lead his constituents to safety.

Maybe he was being compared to our two stellar commissioners, Mike Tranghese and John Marinatto, neither of whom understood football.

In fact though, I don't think Swofford has done that bad a job. He might get eaten by a bigger fish, but that isn't his fault. His basic strategy to create a northern wing of the conference always made a degree of sense. Nobody anywhere predicted the decline of Miami's fortunes (well nobody but Miami insiders) and his original plan to add Syracuse with BC was actually better than what he was forced to do by Virginia. It would have built a northern wing and at the same time stabilized the basketball side of the ACC which took a beating with the original additions. Then he could have added Pitt, UConn, Rutgers, VaTech at his leisure to solidify the North Atlantic division if it made sense. And my guess is that if he already had Syracuse he would have taken Pitt & UConn this time, but maybe we'd have lost out to VaTech. But we'd have been in a better situation wiht Cincy and Louisville remaining in the Big East.

In addition to that, he has a league that will easily survive any future raid unless its a massive one. But even if they lose 4, Florida State, Clemson, Virginia and UNC, it still survives with a solid base, adds UConn and Cincy to get back to 12 teams, preserves its basketball heritage and has football that isn't much different from what is been for the past 8-10 years. VaTech, Louisville and Cincy collectively replace Clemson and Florida State, UConn easily steps in to the position vacated by Carolina and Virginia. Feel the need to add another couple and you just bring in the directional Floridas or you stay at 12. That is a far better position than Tranghese and Marinatto ever even imagined getting the Big East.

 

[Pudge]

I'd still like to run Swofford over in a monster truck.

 

[freescooter]

I'd still like to run Swofford over in a monster truck.

I would too, but to say he has been a bad commissioner is just totally wrong. In 5 years which conference has a greater chance of still being in existence, the ACC or BE4.0? He has had a strategy, he followed it and he's created a defensible league that while not perfect, is considered a Big 5 and, one which almost any current Big East member would join in a heartbeat. Sure if the Big and the SEC and the B-12 all come gunning they are screwed but that is what it would take most likely. And I think that's a stretch.

 

[pj]

His biggest fault was renewing his TV contract long-term just before college media properties soared in value, and signing away Tier 3 rights so there was nothing to renegotiate over.

How much of that is bad luck and how much incompetence I'll leave for others to judge.

The Big East's problem was having a contract that came up for renewal too late. That was partly bad luck too.

 

[RS9999X]

Texas got paid off to snuff a Big 12 Network. Their fanboys are obnoxious about it. Baylor and Tech in a Network that competes with Lomghorn? Expand to dilute Longhorn by pushing a B12 Network in Texas? This was that A&M problem.

Sent from my Lumia 920 via Windows 8. Now bite me Apple Droids.

 

[Pudge]

Swofford seemed to be playing 1990 checkers ... while Slive & Delaney were ratcheting up their game (and Larry Scott of the Pac 12). Rutgers? Look ... they are pond scum; but, they are far more valuable longterm (IMHO) than BC or SU. And so are we! You just simply cannot get the Revenue out of CNY. The Brand? I think the contrast in the ACC to the B1G has been amazing. That's why their cute little club is in danger. He doesn't have to worry about his games at MSG; he has to worry about watching his Tar Heels play Texas A&M as an Away Conference game.