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Virginia the key?

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caw

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Yeah UNC has so much influence that when they wanted and voted for Uconn to join the ACC in the last vote, the league took Louisville.

Totally agree.

UNC loses influence with every expansion the ACC has made. It's simple math. The fact football is running stuff only lessens their influence.

If UNC had Texas' branding in football, things would be the same. They don't and won't.
 

caw

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Frank - I appreciate your insight and your undoubtedly superior knowledge about things Big Ten. I don't dispute that UNC would be a highly valued piece of property for the right conference. What I will dispute, and not through any insider knowledge but simply by applying common sense, is that the Big Ten "would expand immediately" if UNC were willing to join. I've come to the conclusion that UVA's partner in the Big Ten's next expansion will be UConn and not UNC despite arguing exactly as you are not two months ago. I thought UNC was the end game for the Big Ten and UVA was as much a link to get them there as a prize itself.

Reasons the Big Ten does not want UNC over UConn. For purposes of this discussion, I will assume that the SEC would like a North Carolina team and that the Big Ten would like UNC (even though I don't believe that). Even if the Big Ten is interested in North Carolina (the state), I think they would abandon that interest if UNC were not available. Given that assumption, these arguments will assume that NC State ends up in the SEC.

#1) UNC does not deliver the North Carolina market especially if the SEC picks up NC State. North Carolina (the state) is a better fit with the SEC. An SEC based NC State would be very dangerous competition for a UNC based Big Ten. It is much more likely that NC State football improves more dramatically in the SEC than UNC's does in the Big Ten. Quality of product is one of the drivers of interest in a team. Geography is another. North Carolina borders South Carolina and Tennessee. NC State will have a decided advantage in marketing games and generating state-wide "buzz" over UNC and the Big Ten. Put simply, regarding football, UNC in the Big Ten will play second fiddle to an SEC based NC State in the state of North Carolina and neither the Big Ten nor UNC want that.

#2) The Big Ten has made a bold and obvious play for the megalopolis that stretches from Washington D.C. to Boston. The region's 55 million (give or take) residents dwarfs North Carolina. What's more, NC's 10 million are more hotly contested (or soon will be if UNC goes to the Big Ten and NC State goes to the SEC) than the northeast's 55 million. What else is more is that the Big Ten's bold move is placed at risk if they fail to secure the region with an overwhelming show of force. Rutgers and Maryland do not constitute overwhelming force. Who wins the battle for the northeast super region? An ACC based UVA, Syracuse, and Boston College...+UConn? Or a Big Ten based Rutgers and Maryland? I'd say the outcome would not be a foregone conclusion.

Even if the Big Ten believed its northeast risks were manageable, why would they turn right around and request a second, even larger, helping by engaging the SEC in North Carolina? Does Hitler's invasion of Russia ring no bells at Big Ten HQ? Surely even the mighty B10 must have some misgivings regarding expansion into the south Atlantic coast. They are far too prudent to bet the next decades Rose Bowl checks on "Pony Boy" in the Kentucky Derby going off at 250 to 1.

So, assuming the B10 is interested in North Carolina (which I don't), what should they do to ameliorate the considerable risks? Obtain a proof of concept. Bring in UVA to get a baseline level of interest for the Big Ten in a southern market. They might also examine a variety of marketing tactics to see what moves the needle. UVA would likely require a partner. Who better than UConn? We pass the hygiene tests (academics, athletics, geography ...) with a solid B. We have a reasonably solid upside in academics and athletics. We shore up the northeast. We're eager and available. A test case using UConn and UVA is a solid risk abatement strategy.

#3) If the Big Ten's interest in North Carolina begins and ends with UNC, that does little to bolster claims that the state (and its growth rate) is the answer to the B10's prayers. If North Carolina were the answer, the Big Ten would look to NC State next, not abandon the field. That alone tells me that the B10 sees the North Carolina market as a "nice-to-have" only.

#4) UNC to the Big Ten has the potential to be a huge blunder for the Big Ten. I won't (New Coke) bore everyone (the Edsel) with a compilation (Betamax) of the worst (the Segway) as those (the Homer) are well known (UNC to the Big Ten*).


* Future entry.

I don't think it's necessarily a problem having competition with the SEC. It's not a foregone conclusion that having an SEC team in the same state would hamper the Big Ten Network's profitability at all.

UNC would still be in demand in North Carolina and the cable networks would be forced to pick up the feed irregardless. If they suck, people watch (like Rutgers). UNC may lose some share to NCST, but as long as cable networks are still going to carry and charge subs for the Big Ten Network (an amount that would make money) then it's all fine and dandy. Besides, even if UNC football is below NCST football, basketball should remain high (or at least of high interest) and would be reason enough to add UNC.

UVA I am actually more skeptical about forcing cable to do anything in VA or DC. UVA may be Virginia's big public school, but honestly, nobody gives a rats about watching any of their sports. I don't have any official numbers, but from my experience VT has more (or at least a similar number of) fans.

I do understand that UVA fits the Big Ten profile school well, but I'm not sure it really helps the bottom line for sports profits. Maybe UVA/Maryland combination does push cable in DC, but I'm skeptical on if UVA adds a ton to that equation.
 

HuskyHawk

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I'm going to make this simple. Anyone who thinks that there is any conference that would value UConn more highly than UNC is nuts or is under the influence of powerful drugs.

The only reason why UNC might not end up in the B1G is because the don't want to go. I do think that is an entirely likely scenario. If you check their boards....the fans hate the idea of the B1G and would love to be in the SEC. However many northerners have moved there, it is still culturally southern. And DC aside, if anyone thinks that Virginia is culturally northern they are seriously mistaken. The primary confederate army was the Army of Northern Virginia and it was the state most affected by the war. Anyone who thinks the fact that Ohio St. is in the B10 and Kentucky the SEC is arbitrary is not paying attention to reality. I think it would be very difficult for the B1G to convince UVA or UNC to join. My guess is that they'd run to the SEC for a counter-offer immediately, and Delany knows it.
 
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I'm going to make this simple. Anyone who thinks that there is any conference that would value UConn more highly than UNC is nuts or is under the influence of powerful drugs.

The only reason why UNC might not end up in the B1G is because the don't want to go. I do think that is an entirely likely scenario. If you check their boards....the fans hate the idea of the B1G and would love to be in the SEC. However many northerners have moved there, it is still culturally southern. And DC aside, if anyone thinks that Virginia is culturally northern they are seriously mistaken. The primary confederate army was the Army of Northern Virginia and it was the state most affected by the war. Anyone who thinks the fact that Ohio St. is in the B10 and Kentucky the SEC is arbitrary is not paying attention to reality. I think it would be very difficult for the B1G to convince UVA or UNC to join. My guess is that they'd run to the SEC for a counter-offer immediately, and Delany knows it.

Be cautious when applying the transitive property to valuation. There are many factors involved and arriving at a rank order is often neither simple nor unanimous. Geography is a factor most conferences would use in their evaluations. The Pac12 recently added Utah and Colorado. Does North Carolina have more value than those schools? If so, given that UNC isn't competing in L.A., Berkley, Tuscon, etc., does that mean they turned down an invitation? Because either 1) they did, or 2) every conference would Utah and Colorado more than North Carolina, or 3) the transitive property does is inoperative with respect to valuation.

The B1G recently added Rutgers and Maryland. Did the B1G value both those schools higher than UNC? Are both those schools valued higher than UConn? They'd have to be if the B1G valued them more than UNC and everyone values UNC over UConn. Maybe the B1G has a policy of inviting lower valued schools over those valued higher?

In addition to geography, time is a factor in valuation. Berlin was a higher valued target in the time frame of WWII, but on June 6, 1944, the beaches at Normandy were. Perhaps Rutgers and Maryland had higher value to the B1G recently even if North Carolina would be valued higher given a different timeframe.

Current conference configuration is a factor in evaluation. Perhaps without Rutgers and Maryland, UNC becomes a lower valued addition than they are with those two. Perhaps without Maryland UConn (together with Rutgers) becomes a higher valued addition to the B1G than does UNC.

Texas is, by most accounts, a prima donna. Evaluated without context, I would guess that most, if not all, conferences would value Texas higher than North Carolina. Given its baggage and demands for accepting membership, other conferences have refused to invite them. Would the B1G invite ND for all sports but football?
 
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I'm going to make this simple. Based on MD and RU, a school's value in a vacuum has little or no correlation to a school's value to an expansion strategy.

To make it a bit more complicated:
Nobody here has direct knowledge of the B1G's actual strategy. All we can to is speculate based on prior moves and statements. Delaney made a comment about alumni from northern Virginia to southern New England. They're not in those markets yet. They invited Rutgers and Maryland. That's pretty much all the evidence we have to go on. Based on that evidence it appears that their strategy could be to capture the northeast corridor and the BosWash megalopolis. It appears they could be on track toward sandwiching the major metropolitan areas and media markets between flagship universities up and down the seaboard, from N Va to S New England. If that is the strategy, then the next schools invited should be Virginia and UConn.

If anything but that is the strategy, UConn better hope the ACC survives. And finally decides they want us.
 
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Frank - I appreciate your insight and your undoubtedly superior knowledge about things Big Ten. I don't dispute that UNC would be a highly valued piece of property for the right conference. What I will dispute, and not through any insider knowledge but simply by applying common sense, is that the Big Ten "would expand immediately" if UNC were willing to join. I've come to the conclusion that UVA's partner in the Big Ten's next expansion will be UConn and not UNC despite arguing exactly as you are not two months ago. I thought UNC was the end game for the Big Ten and UVA was as much a link to get them there as a prize itself.

Reasons the Big Ten does not want UNC over UConn. For purposes of this discussion, I will assume that the SEC would like a North Carolina team and that the Big Ten would like UNC (even though I don't believe that). Even if the Big Ten is interested in North Carolina (the state), I think they would abandon that interest if UNC were not available. Given that assumption, these arguments will assume that NC State ends up in the SEC.

#1) UNC does not deliver the North Carolina market especially if the SEC picks up NC State. North Carolina (the state) is a better fit with the SEC. An SEC based NC State would be very dangerous competition for a UNC based Big Ten. It is much more likely that NC State football improves more dramatically in the SEC than UNC's does in the Big Ten. Quality of product is one of the drivers of interest in a team. Geography is another. North Carolina borders South Carolina and Tennessee. NC State will have a decided advantage in marketing games and generating state-wide "buzz" over UNC and the Big Ten. Put simply, regarding football, UNC in the Big Ten will play second fiddle to an SEC based NC State in the state of North Carolina and neither the Big Ten nor UNC want that.

#2) The Big Ten has made a bold and obvious play for the megalopolis that stretches from Washington D.C. to Boston. The region's 55 million (give or take) residents dwarfs North Carolina. What's more, NC's 10 million are more hotly contested (or soon will be if UNC goes to the Big Ten and NC State goes to the SEC) than the northeast's 55 million. What else is more is that the Big Ten's bold move is placed at risk if they fail to secure the region with an overwhelming show of force. Rutgers and Maryland do not constitute overwhelming force. Who wins the battle for the northeast super region? An ACC based UVA, Syracuse, and Boston College...+UConn? Or a Big Ten based Rutgers and Maryland? I'd say the outcome would not be a foregone conclusion.

Even if the Big Ten believed its northeast risks were manageable, why would they turn right around and request a second, even larger, helping by engaging the SEC in North Carolina? Does Hitler's invasion of Russia ring no bells at Big Ten HQ? Surely even the mighty B10 must have some misgivings regarding expansion into the south Atlantic coast. They are far too prudent to bet the next decades Rose Bowl checks on "Pony Boy" in the Kentucky Derby going off at 250 to 1.

So, assuming the B10 is interested in North Carolina (which I don't), what should they do to ameliorate the considerable risks? Obtain a proof of concept. Bring in UVA to get a baseline level of interest for the Big Ten in a southern market. They might also examine a variety of marketing tactics to see what moves the needle. UVA would likely require a partner. Who better than UConn? We pass the hygiene tests (academics, athletics, geography ...) with a solid B. We have a reasonably solid upside in academics and athletics. We shore up the northeast. We're eager and available. A test case using UConn and UVA is a solid risk abatement strategy.

#3) If the Big Ten's interest in North Carolina begins and ends with UNC, that does little to bolster claims that the state (and its growth rate) is the answer to the B10's prayers. If North Carolina were the answer, the Big Ten would look to NC State next, not abandon the field. That alone tells me that the B10 sees the North Carolina market as a "nice-to-have" only.

#4) UNC to the Big Ten has the potential to be a huge blunder for the Big Ten. I won't (New Coke) bore everyone (the Edsel) with a compilation (Betamax) of the worst (the Segway) as those (the Homer) are well known (UNC to the Big Ten*).


* Future entry.


I like you're thinking here, makes sense on a lot of levels. No one can deny the cultural impact on market share, rivalries, general fit. Make no mistake, NC is a southern state.

The one solution here is that BiG goes big in NC and brings aboard Duke. If we look at the ACC today, the heart of that conference is Duke/UNC as a duo. It's one of the best rivalries in all of sports and would add an intense rivalry. Meanwhile they gain an Ivy level academic. From a pure marketing perspective, it's a no brainer. If you've ever been down to Charlotte or Raleigh, what you realize quickly is that it feels like half the population are transplants from the NE and the Midwest. While still very southern, it's evolving. It does feel like a stretch today, but Delany works with a crystal ball. This would buffer the blow of UNC adjusting to a starkly differing conference culture while offering UNC a nice chip to boot.

The SEC and the BiG would not be looking to create a similar product in that state - NC is still a hoops first state, tobacco road. While an NC St/SEC could certainly create some nice buzz, unlikely that it would trump the romance of what UNC/Duke means to the people of NC.

I like the optimism, but too much to gain. Not a bad recruiting basin either.

http://footballrecruiting.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1239398
 
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I don't think it's necessarily a problem having competition with the SEC. It's not a foregone conclusion that having an SEC team in the same state would hamper the Big Ten Network's profitability at all.

UNC would still be in demand in North Carolina and the cable networks would be forced to pick up the feed irregardless. If they suck, people watch (like Rutgers). UNC may lose some share to NCST, but as long as cable networks are still going to carry and charge subs for the Big Ten Network (an amount that would make money) then it's all fine and dandy. Besides, even if UNC football is below NCST football, basketball should remain high (or at least of high interest) and would be reason enough to add UNC.

UVA I am actually more skeptical about forcing cable to do anything in VA or DC. UVA may be Virginia's big public school, but honestly, nobody gives a rats about watching any of their sports. I don't have any official numbers, but from my experience VT has more (or at least a similar number of) fans.

I do understand that UVA fits the Big Ten profile school well, but I'm not sure it really helps the bottom line for sports profits. Maybe UVA/Maryland combination does push cable in DC, but I'm skeptical on if UVA adds a ton to that equation.

A couple of things I would urge you to consider:

Do not heavily weight expansion decisions based on the current model of content delivery. It will disappear. Cable companies will not rule the roost going forward. You will not be forced to pay for a package of chanels the way you are now. Would anybody here subscribe (unless they were available for free, and even then... ) to shopping and food channels if they weren't compelled to by the cable company? Satellite delivery is available. The company that piped content into your house lost its major leverage point as a content distributor when their physical tether to customers TVs was severed. Any conference that is making strategic membership decisions based on the ability to strong arm their product into customers homes (and wallets) via "packages" constructed by cable companies to maximize the company's profits/revenues but have little to do with the customers' actual viewing desires might as well turn over their expansion planning to John Swofford. Content delivery is about to become much more tightly coupled with customer wants. There is, or soon will be sufficient technology, to assure that Michigan fans living in Texas aren't condemned to watching Longhorns contests. Cable fees will not be the driving factor determining conference revenue and, therefore, should have a much smaller role in winnowing down new member invitation lists. Conferences surely understand that the end consumer will be paying based on what they watch and will adjust their planning accordingly. Geography will continue to play a major role in creating viewer demand

I agree, competing with the SEC over specific state markets isn't necessarily a bad thing, or one the B1G would lose. However, taking on the SEC in North Carolina (pretty much the SEC's home turf), isn't the fight the B1G should be picking. Facing off in Virginia (UVA/B1G vs VaTech/SEC) is a contest that gives the B1G much better odds. I think the SEC would be much more concerned taking on the B1G in VA than they would contesting North Carolina (with NC State). Think the SEC is interested in luring Michigan State away from the B1G? I realize it's not a perfect analogy but it's closer than people might first think.
 
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I like you're thinking here, makes sense on a lot of levels. No one can deny the cultural impact on market share, rivalries, general fit. Make no mistake, NC is a southern state.

The one solution here is that BiG goes big in NC and brings aboard Duke. If we look at the ACC today, the heart of that conference is Duke/UNC as a duo. It's one of the best rivalries in all of sports and would add an intense rivalry. Meanwhile they gain an Ivy level academic. From a pure marketing perspective, it's a no brainer. If you've ever been down to Charlotte or Raleigh, what you realize quickly is that it feels like half the population are transplants from the NE and the Midwest. While still very southern, it's evolving. It does feel like a stretch today, but Delany works with a crystal ball. This would buffer the blow of UNC adjusting to a starkly differing conference culture while offering UNC a nice chip to boot.

The SEC and the BiG would not be looking to create a similar product in that state - NC is still a hoops first state, tobacco road. While an NC St/SEC could certainly create some nice buzz, unlikely that it would trump the romance of what UNC/Duke means to the people of NC.

I like the optimism, but too much to gain. Not a bad recruiting basin either.

http://footballrecruiting.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1239398

One problem with a UNC/Duke solution is that adding two schools gets the B1G to 16 so, unless they are planning to go bigger, UVA is left out. Without UVA, the B1G's play in the huge market that is the northeast hinges primarily on RU and MD. If the B1G plans on going bigger, why start with UNC/Duke? That has all the earmarks of a Swofford play.
 

RMoore1999

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Frank - I appreciate your insight and your undoubtedly superior knowledge about things Big Ten. I don't dispute that UNC would be a highly valued piece of property for the right conference. What I will dispute, and not through any insider knowledge but simply by applying common sense, is that the Big Ten "would expand immediately" if UNC were willing to join. I've come to the conclusion that UVA's partner in the Big Ten's next expansion will be UConn and not UNC despite arguing exactly as you are not two months ago. I thought UNC was the end game for the Big Ten and UVA was as much a link to get them there as a prize itself.

Reasons the Big Ten does not want UNC over UConn. For purposes of this discussion, I will assume that the SEC would like a North Carolina team and that the Big Ten would like UNC (even though I don't believe that). Even if the Big Ten is interested in North Carolina (the state), I think they would abandon that interest if UNC were not available. Given that assumption, these arguments will assume that NC State ends up in the SEC.

#1) UNC does not deliver the North Carolina market especially if the SEC picks up NC State. North Carolina (the state) is a better fit with the SEC. An SEC based NC State would be very dangerous competition for a UNC based Big Ten. It is much more likely that NC State football improves more dramatically in the SEC than UNC's does in the Big Ten. Quality of product is one of the drivers of interest in a team. Geography is another. North Carolina borders South Carolina and Tennessee. NC State will have a decided advantage in marketing games and generating state-wide "buzz" over UNC and the Big Ten. Put simply, regarding football, UNC in the Big Ten will play second fiddle to an SEC based NC State in the state of North Carolina and neither the Big Ten nor UNC want that.

#2) The Big Ten has made a bold and obvious play for the megalopolis that stretches from Washington D.C. to Boston. The region's 55 million (give or take) residents dwarfs North Carolina. What's more, NC's 10 million are more hotly contested (or soon will be if UNC goes to the Big Ten and NC State goes to the SEC) than the northeast's 55 million. What else is more is that the Big Ten's bold move is placed at risk if they fail to secure the region with an overwhelming show of force. Rutgers and Maryland do not constitute overwhelming force. Who wins the battle for the northeast super region? An ACC based UVA, Syracuse, and Boston College...+UConn? Or a Big Ten based Rutgers and Maryland? I'd say the outcome would not be a foregone conclusion.

Even if the Big Ten believed its northeast risks were manageable, why would they turn right around and request a second, even larger, helping by engaging the SEC in North Carolina? Does Hitler's invasion of Russia ring no bells at Big Ten HQ? Surely even the mighty B10 must have some misgivings regarding expansion into the south Atlantic coast. They are far too prudent to bet the next decades Rose Bowl checks on "Pony Boy" in the Kentucky Derby going off at 250 to 1.

So, assuming the B10 is interested in North Carolina (which I don't), what should they do to ameliorate the considerable risks? Obtain a proof of concept. Bring in UVA to get a baseline level of interest for the Big Ten in a southern market. They might also examine a variety of marketing tactics to see what moves the needle. UVA would likely require a partner. Who better than UConn? We pass the hygiene tests (academics, athletics, geography ...) with a solid B. We have a reasonably solid upside in academics and athletics. We shore up the northeast. We're eager and available. A test case using UConn and UVA is a solid risk abatement strategy.

#3) If the Big Ten's interest in North Carolina begins and ends with UNC, that does little to bolster claims that the state (and its growth rate) is the answer to the B10's prayers. If North Carolina were the answer, the Big Ten would look to NC State next, not abandon the field. That alone tells me that the B10 sees the North Carolina market as a "nice-to-have" only.

#4) UNC to the Big Ten has the potential to be a huge blunder for the Big Ten. I won't (New Coke) bore everyone (the Edsel) with a compilation (Betamax) of the worst (the Segway) as those (the Homer) are well known (UNC to the Big Ten*).


* Future entry.

Supposedly HuskyFanDan threw in the towel and abandoned the BY. Instead, he cleaned up his grammar/style and abducted Registered's identity...
 
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Hearing UVA to B1G, if what I've heard is true, the ACC is about to get jail house raped. This could get ugly.
 

UConnDan97

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Hearing UVA to B1G, if what I've heard is true, the ACC is about to get jail house raped. This could get ugly.

Who are you hearing this from? And is it connected to the Greg Swaim tweet that I just read on another thread?
 

UConnDan97

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The UVA to b1g is wv based.

I'm running Google searches right now, and it appears that there are a great many boards running with this story. Either the WV board is fantastic at spreading manure, or this thing might actually be happening in twenty minutes.....hang on to your hats, ladies and gents....here we go again....
 

UConnDan97

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The more I search, the more I find that a lot of the boards are tying back to WVU. I see alot of this "atomic noodle" character being referenced. I'm starting to smell manure. Also, why would a major conference announce a major addition on MLK Day? Maybe I'm jaded, but I'll believe it when I see it...
 
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The more I search, the more I find that a lot of the boards are tying back to WVU. I see alot of this "atomic noodle" character being referenced. I'm starting to smell manure. Also, why would a major conference announce a major addition on MLK Day? Maybe I'm jaded, but I'll believe it when I see it...

Try a twitter search while you are @ it... uva b1g
 

OkaForPrez

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The more I search, the more I find that a lot of the boards are tying back to WVU. I see alot of this "atomic noodle" character being referenced. I'm starting to smell manure. Also, why would a major conference announce a major addition on MLK Day? Maybe I'm jaded, but I'll believe it when I see it...
That's where I'm at. Although swami has been all in on this one and is talking about Mondays show being dedicated to realignment. Why would someone with a vested interest in having some integrity go so overboard on this rumor.
 

pj

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I'm running Google searches right now, and it appears that there are a great many boards running with this story. Either the WV board is fantastic at spreading manure, or this thing might actually be happening in twenty minutes.....hang on to your hats, ladies and gents....here we go again....

As I write this the board is telling me your post appeared precisely twenty minutes ago. WHERE'S MY B1G INVITE UCONNDAN97?
 

UConnDan97

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Try a twitter search while you are @ it... uva b1g

Jesus H. Christ! Twitter is a weird place. There are a billion people tweeting about it, and even including their own flavors (I saw someone put ND in the mix too). I've been on Twitter for a week, and I already hate it...
 
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Jesus H. Christ! Twitter is a weird place. There are a billion people tweeting about it, and even including their own flavors (I saw someone put ND in the mix too). I've been on Twitter for a week, and I already hate it...
It looks worse than Facebook.
 

UConnDan97

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It looks worse than Facebook.

It's Facebook, but with less words per post, less thought out ideas, and even professional writers look like a$$clowns.....and I blame PJ for getting me on there! ;)
 
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It's not just the WVU boards, some B1G boards are discussing this as well, very interesting.
 
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If UNC annd UVA go to the SEC, I am all for seceding from the NCAA and paying players. They should be paid anyway. They sacrifice a lot more than someone on an academic scholarship.

If I was UNC and UVA, I'd go to the SEC. Don't count out Duke to the SEC either. Not because I am hoping UConn goes to the B1G. There are not many options for the B1G to expand further west.
 
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