Val Ackerman on the future of college athletics & conference realignment

[nelsonmuntz]

If the ACC did anything, they would cherry-pick, like they did the last time. And there is one school they could cherry-pick right now, and they haven't done it.

If the ACC was going to cherry pick, it would have added UConn. Has it added UConn?

 

[Kolumbo]

From another perspective. Remember, both Coaches K and Pitino like the idea and they have about 500 years of experience between them. You cannot risk being left behind.

Both the Big East and ACC have blue blood programs, excellent programs, good programs, and dregs - your bcu, depaul, etc. A combined league by sheer numbers would have more top-notch perennial ranked programs than the SEC, Big 10, or Big XII. That feather in the cap alone is worth a premium bonus since it would be THE premier basketball conference. As it is now, the two conferences are number 4 and 5, or 5 and 6. That sucks. So there is a lot of brand marketing value there. If you ain't first, you're last.

Plus, and I know some will disagree, the merged conference would get an additional boost by uniting major markets Chicago, Indianapolis, NYC, Hartford, Boston, Philly, DC, Cincy, Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami, Dallas, Frisco, etc. So, numbers, logistics, synergies, rivalries, all that sheet. It would be one hell of an amazing basketball conference and there is no question, it would put like 10 - 15 programs in the dance every year. If you overlayed the Big East and ACC maps, it would blanket the entire eastern and central time zones including every major city. And that's all that really matters, especially when it comes to basketball.

Finally, the way the football CFP plan is going, the Big Ten and SEC are forking it up for everyone else anyway. Most of the ACC is virtually shut out as is the Big XII. I mean, FSU was literally shut out last year. If the Big Ten and SEC break away, whatever happens, the ACC/Big East toes are still tappin'. A 28 member basketball conference will not only never be left behind, it would be calling the shots vis-a-vis the basketball tournament. The Big Ten can go home and get their freaking shineboxes.

That's my opinion and I'm sticking to it.

 

[jostar1]

If the ACC was going to cherry pick, it would have added UConn. Has it added UConn?

That's what I said. IF they did anything, they would cherry-pick. And they haven't done it.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

That's what I said. IF they did anything, they would cherry-pick. And they haven't done it.

No one has tried anything else in the streaming era. These conferences were assembled to maximize their value to linear cable. Linear cable is shrinking and may die altogether in the next 10 years. I think it is worth being creative.

If you think UConn is already dead, then it is over and you have nothing to worry about.

 

[uconnyankee]

The real problem as I see it for the merger case is this: yes, Duke playing Villanova is more valuable than Duke playing Wake Forest. That's just simple population math. But without a mechanism to jettison Wake in order to acquire Villanova, it's no better than just scheduling an OOC game between each other. You won't be able to have a true home-and-home with 36 teams (or whatever the number would be).

Until you can find a way to send the Butlers and Wakes packing in order to merge, it doesn't make sense...

Conference realignment has been exactly that.
It’s been taking the ‘perceived’ value and dropping the rest.

UConn, USF and Cincy were all BCS schools that got cut out.
ACC took their choices, WVU went Big 12 and rest went to AAC.

Same for Pac12. OSU and WSU were left out. If ACC is targeted it’s likely schools will be cut out.

Every conference has those schools. Obviously, being in the P2 helps until those conferences start looking inward.

Years from now UConn will be to ACC as Penn State was to Big East.

 

[CL82]

Well, yes it is when you consider that the ACC doesn't play against all conference mates in football. So... if you're playing against Wake in football instead of playing Pitt or Stanford, then you're losing there too...

Not really, because football games are 80% of the value of the media rights contract. So the mere fact that Wake Forest is playing someone has more value than Villanova playing anyone.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Conference realignment has been exactly that.
It’s been taking the ‘perceived’ value and dropping the rest.

UConn, USF and Cincy were all BCS schools that got cut out.
ACC took their choices, WVU went Big 12 and rest went to AAC.

Same for Pac12. OSU and WSU were left out. If ACC is targeted it’s likely schools will be cut out.

Every conference has those schools. Obviously, being in the P2 helps until those conferences start looking inward.

Years from now UConn will be to ACC as Penn State was to Big East.

Is the media world the same as it was in 2002?

 

[Kolumbo]

aaaaand this popped up on my feed, those AI bastards. I know it aint happenin' but I like the map. I say 2 divisions of 14 each. Each division has 9 football and 5 basketball only. screw ND.

 

[CL82]

aaaaand this popped up on my feed, those AI bastards. I know it aint happenin' but I like the map. I say 2 divisions of 14 each. Each division has 9 football and 5 basketball only. screw ND.

I think it's extraordinarily unlikely, but, if Connecticut gets a full revenue share and a membership in the P4 with the attendant access to the CFP, while still being able to schedule local basketball games against big east opponents that's the best of all possible worlds for us.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

I think it's extraordinarily unlikely, but, if Connecticut gets a full revenue share and a membership in the P4 with the attendant access to the CFP, while still being able to schedule local basketball games against big east opponents that's the best of all possible worlds for us.

As compared to where we've been, are now, and could be in the future, I'd call it nirvana. Only getting into the B1G would be better.

 

[UConnDan97]

Conference realignment has been exactly that.
It’s been taking the ‘perceived’ value and dropping the rest.

UConn, USF and Cincy were all BCS schools that got cut out.
ACC took their choices, WVU went Big 12 and rest went to AAC.

Same for Pac12. OSU and WSU were left out. If ACC is targeted it’s likely schools will be cut out.

Every conference has those schools. Obviously, being in the P2 helps until those conferences start looking inward.

Years from now UConn will be to ACC as Penn State was to Big East.

But you're mixing up 2 different things. There is the dismantling of a conference, which leads to cherry picking (eg, the PAC12 falling apart). And then there's a fully formed and viable conference kicking someone out. I don't think the latter has happened since the old Big East did it to Temple.

For an ACC - Big East merger to make sense, you would need to do the latter...

 

[UConnDan97]

Not really, because football games are 80% of the value of the media rights contract. So the mere fact that Wake Forest is playing someone has more value than Villanova playing anyone.

... but playing them in football doesn't have the same value as playing someone else in football. That's my point. So if a team is missing out on the opportunity to play against a better team from a more populated area in order to play Wake Forest, then by definition, they are losing...

 

[GampelGladiator]

aaaaand this popped up on my feed, those AI bastards. I know it aint happenin' but I like the map. I say 2 divisions of 14 each. Each division has 9 football and 5 basketball only. screw ND.

As purely an academic exercise...

This plan would be fine...but I prefer the changes below. I know it's old-fashioned, but I think there is value in geographic continuity.

1. Tell ND that it's full membership or no membership. (they will opt for no membership)
2. Swap Creighton for Memphis.
3. Swap SMU for West Virgina.
4. Swap Cal for Cincinnati.
5. Swap Stanford for Central Florida.

Boston College	Central Florida
Cincinnati	Clemson
Connecticut	Duke
Louisville	Florida State
Memphis	Georgia Tech
Pittsburgh	Miami
Syracuse	North Carolina
Virginia	North Carolina State
Virginia Tech	Wake Forest
West Virginia
Georgetown	Butler
Providence	DePaul
Seton Hall	Marquette
St. John's	Xavier
Villanova

 

[Fishy]

If the ACC did anything, they would cherry-pick, like they did the last time. And there is one school they could cherry-pick right now, and they haven't done it.

They would cherry pick. They did cherry pick. And they’re done with it.

It’s a fever dream to actually think the ACC would merge with the Big East. They can’t even hold a conference tournament with all of the schools now but they’re going to add 11 more? Just hold a five round conference tournament in small city, North Carolina? lol

Some people here are just wishcasting so hard.

 

[Kolumbo]

They would cherry pick. They did cherry pick. And they’re done with it.

It’s a fever dream to actually think the ACC would merge with the Big East. They can’t even hold a conference tournament with all of the schools now but they’re going to add 11 more? Just hold a five round conference tournament in small city, North Carolina? lol

Some people here are just wishcasting so hard.

Come on Fishy. What else do we have to do while trying to kick the elusive football

Big East - ACC Merger according to Kolumbo

Every member is guaranteed a minimum 1X Revenue Share depending on revenues for the year. X is determined by total revenue payouts for the conference divided by total shares. Total shares based on number of programs in each Tier. Tiers of Membership and the number of shares each member receives shall be as follows:

1.0X = Basketball Membership (Georgetown, Villanova, etc)
4.0X = Football Membership (UConn, UNC, etc)
CBX = Football & Basketball Combo Membership Bonus (UConn, UNC, etc)
PBX = Performance bonuses for programs that deliver the goods (UConn, Clemson, etc). This could be very complicated but a way for the good programs to earn more while the bottom feeders get bare minimum

A typical Scenario would be Clemson and UConn may end up with 5.0X plus various bonuses while Butler and depaul would receive 1.0X.
Conference Tournament could have 1 or 2 play-in rounds at locations such as Chicago, Charlotte, Miami, Philly on a rotating basis. Final rounds at MSG of course.

 

[Fishy]

Come on Fishy. What else do we have to do while trying to kick the elusive football

Big East - ACC Merger according to Kolumbo

Every member is guaranteed a minimum 1X Revenue Share depending on revenues for the year. X is determined by total revenue payouts for the conference divided by total shares. Total shares based on number of programs in each Tier. Tiers of Membership and the number of shares each member receives shall be as follows:

1.0X = Basketball Membership (Georgetown, Villanova, etc)
4.0X = Football Membership (UConn, UNC, etc)
CBX = Football & Basketball Combo Membership Bonus (UConn, UNC, etc)
PBX = Performance bonuses for programs that deliver the goods (UConn, Clemson, etc). This could be very complicated but a way for the good programs to earn more while the bottom feeders get bare minimum

A typical Scenario would be Clemson and UConn may end up with 5.0X plus various bonuses while Butler and depaul would receive 1.0X.
Conference Tournament could have 1 or 2 play-in rounds at locations such as Chicago, Charlotte, Miami, Philly on a rotating basis. Final rounds at MSG of course.

As long as we acknowledge that it is fantasy, we’re fine.

 

[Rdkid]

We better get St. Louis and Drake before someone else does.

I say Drake. I love those coffee cakes

 

[Rdkid]

Just because K said the BE and ACC should merge, doesn’t mean it will happen.

BE’s WBB demise is the canary in the coal mine. The private Catholics are not going to be competitive athletic programs and MBB is not getting better.

 

[Ldandy]

Well, yes it is when you consider that the ACC doesn't play against all conference mates in football. So... if you're playing against Wake in football instead of playing Pitt or Stanford, then you're losing there too...

I highly doubt that Duke or their fans would feel like they're losing out by playing Wake as opposed to the others you listed. Duke has a long history of competition with Wake. Pitt and Stanford? Not so much. I suspect that most Duke Fans would probably not give a rip if they ever played Pitt or Stanford again.

 

[cellocgg]

Just because K said the BE and ACC should merge, doesn’t mean it will happen.

BE’s WBB demise is the canary in the coal mine. The private Catholics are not going to be competitive athletic programs and MBB is not getting better.

BE is only good at MBB and It's not even a real "power" Basketball conference. People just say that because it's been consistently good but there's no way that lasts. Schools like BC and Wake drag the ACC down, why would they want to merge with a conference full of those types? If anything, they will cherry pick

The day we get 2 or less schools in you'll see how fast the public narrative turns against us. I remember when the A10 got 6 schools in like 10 years ago

 

[Kolumbo]

Just because K said the BE and ACC should merge, doesn’t mean it will happen.

BE’s WBB demise is the canary in the coal mine. The private Catholics are not going to be competitive athletic programs and MBB is not getting better.

Oh it's happening. Of course it's happening. Coach K said so.

BE is only good at MBB and It's not even a real "power" Basketball conference. People just say that because it's been consistently good but there's no way that lasts. Schools like BC and Wake drag the ACC down, why would they want to merge with a conference full of those types? If anything, they will cherry pick

The day we get 2 or less schools in you'll see how fast the public narrative turns against us. I remember when the A10 got 6 schools in like 10 years ago

True, the Big East is not very good at football. The more I think about it though, I don't think the Big East wants to merge with the ACC because the ACC probably doesn't make as much for basketball as the Big East does.

The Big East doesn't have quantity but it has quality. Yes, bcu is a drag on the ACC but it would also be a drag on the Big East. Kick bcu to the curb and maybe a merger makes sense.

 

[CL82]

... but playing them in football doesn't have the same value as playing someone else in football. That's my point. So if a team is missing out on the opportunity to play against a better team from a more populated area in order to play Wake Forest, then by definition, they are losing...

I hear you, but Villanova does not play FBS football. That's why, for the purposes of a media rights contract, Wake Forest has more value than Villanova.

 

[uconnyankee]

But you're mixing up 2 different things. There is the dismantling of a conference, which leads to cherry picking (eg, the PAC12 falling apart). And then there's a fully formed and viable conference kicking someone out. I don't think the latter has happened since the old Big East did it to Temple.

For an ACC - Big East merger to make sense, you would need to do the latter...

I’m not mixing things up. Temple being kicked wasn’t realignment. That was non performance and the other schools tired of subsidizing poor AD management.
Realignment is schools/conferences working with media partners to maximize value. When a school or two leave a conference, they are the perceived value. The schools left behind are left out.

If the ACC and Big East were to agree on some type of merger, it would be with a new media deal, a new conference, and new members. At the least, it would be ACC swallowing BE. The likelihood of all 11 BE schools being invited to that deal would be small. I wouldn’t equate that to what Temple went through.

 

[Kolumbo]

I hear you, but Villanova does not play FBS football. That's why, for the purposes of a media rights contract, Wake Forest has more value than Villanova.

No, it really doesn't. Of course Wake has more total cost than Villanova because you are grouping football and basketball together. That's the error. His point is a program could play Villanova in basketball which is greater than Wake basketball. Then it could play a much better football team than Wake. Combined it is a much better total overall value. With Wake, you are stuck playing Wake football which is a loss compared to better football programs.

It's like saying we're getting a Volkswagen plus a Toyota prius which cost more than a Mercedes. But what you really want is a Mercedes plus another Mercedes.

 

[CL82]

No, it really doesn't. Of course Wake has more total cost than Villanova because you are grouping football and basketball together. That's the error. His point is a program could play Villanova in basketball which is greater than Wake basketball. Then it could play a much better football team than Wake. Combined it is a much better total overall value. With Wake, you are stuck playing Wake football which is a loss compared to better football programs.

It's like saying we're getting a Volkswagen plus a Toyota prius which cost more than a Mercedes. But what you really want is a Mercedes plus another Mercedes.

Lol, no it's actually not like saying that at all. Broadcast partners are paying for content. One less football team means 6 less games to broadcast. "Cost" isn't the focal point to of the analysis, "revenue" is.