Upsets!

[Blakeon18]

NC State goes down...double digits...to Miami...lost last 2of 3.
Virginia Tech goes down...double digits...to Duke.

Last AP has us 9...NC State 4 or 5. Do we jump them on Monday?
I would say 'no'...that solid win over UConn still tilts it to me. Another loss...say over
the weekend...we will be ranked higher come Monday.

 

[bballnut90]

NC State started hot but it seems they're coming down to earth again. They're also without their center River Baldwin which is probably a big contributing factor.

ACC is wild this year. I think they have 5-6 teams that could be in the 10-20 range but I'm not seeing anyone as a likely Final Four threat this year. Elite 8 may be a stretch too. Walz with his hodgepodge roster of portal transfers looks like the best bet to win the conference at the moment.

Pac 12 is also cannibalizing itself, with UCLA/Colorado playing today and USC is on the road at Utah which could be tough. I expect a lot of movement in the polls the next few weeks.

 

[visitingcock]

NC State started hot but it seems they're coming down to earth again. They're also without their center River Baldwin which is probably a big contributing factor.

ACC is wild this year. I think they have 5-6 teams that could be in the 10-20 range but I'm not seeing anyone as a likely Final Four threat this year. Elite 8 may be a stretch too. Walz with his hodgepodge roster of portal transfers looks like the best bet to win the conference at the moment.

Pac 12 is also cannibalizing itself, with UCLA/Colorado playing today and USC is on the road at Utah which could be tough. I expect a lot of movement in the polls the next few weeks.

Pac 12 is cannibalizing itself at the Top half. ACC is doing so everywhere except the bottom three.

 

[triaddukefan]

Actually Duke was favored by Massey last night. Ive been predicting a Blue Devil victory for weeks.

 

[Tonyc]

I would think UConn would move up and if UConn beats Marquette and ND next week they would most likely move up even further.

 

[bbsamjj]

Pac 12 is cannibalizing itself at the Top half. ACC is doing so everywhere except the bottom three.

The key will be can USC, UCLA, Colorado, and Stanford keep their losses just to each other (while getting wins too). Obviously there are other threats in the league--Oregon St, and Alyssa Pilli--but if they can do that, they probably all at least wind up with a #2 seed. [Bracketolgy currently has CO and UCLA as 1 seeds, Stanford and USC as #2 seeds).

 

[visitingcock]

The key will be can USC, UCLA, Colorado, and Stanford keep their losses just to each other (while getting wins too). Obviously there are other threats in the league--Oregon St, and Alyssa Pilli--but if they can do that, they probably all at least wind up with a #2 seed. [Bracketolgy currently has CO and UCLA as 1 seeds, Stanford and USC as #2 seeds).

The reality of that happening is fairly slim.

There are only 8 slots available for a one seed or two seed. If 4 PAC teams get 1/2 seed, that leave only four slots available for the five p-5=1 champs (includes UConn)! So, you win the big 12 or ACC and get left out?

@Plebe and I have argued about it over the years. He says there is no political component to the selection committee's decisions. I argue that it may not be listed as such but everything done by the committee has political considerations. In selection parlance it may be referred to as "regional" consideration not "political."

Three top two seeds for the PAC is likely. I don't think four happens unless a real dog end up winning one of the other five conferences.

Now, the retort of @Plebe

 

[JellyBean]

NC State goes down...double digits...to Miami...lost last 2of 3.
Virginia Tech goes down...double digits...to Duke.

Last AP has us 9...NC State 4 or 5. Do we jump them on Monday?
I would say 'no'...that solid win over UConn still tilts it to me. Another loss...say over
the weekend...we will be ranked higher come Monday.

Like they always say, if you ain't on your A game, you will get beat. I will have to watch the replay of that NC State/Miami game. I am shocked about Virginia Tech losing. Wow. That is a huge surprise.

 

[Plebe]

The reality of that happening is fairly slim.

There are only 8 slots available for a one seed or two seed. If 4 PAC teams get 1/2 seed, that leave only four slots available for the five p-5=1 champs (includes UConn)! So, you win the big 12 or ACC and get left out?

@Plebe and I have argued about it over the years. He says there is no political component to the selection committee's decisions. I argue that it may not be listed as such but everything done by the committee has political considerations. In selection parlance it may be referred to as "regional" consideration not "political."

Now, the retort of @Plebe

Sigh. Are we in for two months of this conspiracy talk again? Please tell me we're not.

Last year the highest seed from the Big 12 was a 4 seed. That should've ended this folly, but apparently pet theories die hard. And there have been multiple other years when a p5 conference had no team in the top 2 seed lines.

There is no shortage of counterexamples disproving your hypothesis, and there is zero evidence supporting it. Why you continue to cling to this arbitrary theory conjured up purely from your own fancy is beyond me.

It's hard enough dealing with all the conspiracy talk here of how the committee's top priority is screwing over UConn etc. without compounding it like this.

 

[LoTrader]

I've seen Virginia Tech play 3 or 4 times now. Virginia Tech's supporting cast from last season was much better than this season. Not surprised they got waxed by Duke after Amoore left the game. I think Duke would have won even if Georgia had been healthy and played her normal amount of minutes.

 

[DefenseBB]

I am lost on what @visitingcock is arguing as there is evidence that a P5 + UConn champ has been left out of a top 2 seed. Back in 2018, the Big 10 Champ tOSU was a #3 seed (Maryland was #5 seed). In fact I have never heard quibbles about the #1 or #2 seeds but mostly what region a school was placed in as most always wanted to avoid Bridgeport or Albany as they view that as CT turf.

There is no evidence from what I can see going back to 2017 of the committee "artificially" propping up a P5 school into the top 2 slots simply because they won the conference. By "winning" I am assuming that Visitingcock is referring to the regular season winner as Kentucky did win the SECT in 2022 and was a #6 seed but that was because they upset his Gamecocks.

In 2017 Maryland won the Big 10 and was a #3 seed in Bridgeport (and so was #2 Duke) and both schools complained because Connecticut was the #1 seed.

What am I misunderstanding?

 

[DefenseBB]

I've seen Virginia Tech play 3 or 4 times now. Virginia Tech's supporting cast from last season was much better than this season. Not surprised they got waxed by Duke after Amoore left the game. I think Duke would have won even if Georgia had been healthy and played her normal amount of minutes.

Big games this weekend for the Beavers, if Raegan can stay out of foul trouble against Brink, the Beavers have a shot.

 

[triaddukefan]

I've seen Virginia Tech play 3 or 4 times now. Virginia Tech's supporting cast from last season was much better than this season. Not surprised they got waxed by Duke after Amoore left the game. I think Duke would have won even if Georgia had been healthy and played her normal amount of minutes.

You definitely are the leading candidate for BY Poster of the Month

Like they always say, if you ain't on your A game, you will get beat. I will have to watch the replay of that NC State/Miami game. I am shocked about Virginia Tech losing. Wow. That is a huge surprise.

You need to listen to me more Duke is a bad matchup for the Hokies.

 

[visitingcock]

Sigh. Are we in for two months of this conspiracy talk again? Please tell me we're not.

Last year the highest seed from the Big 12 was a 4 seed. That should've ended this folly, but apparently pet theories die hard. And there have been multiple other years when a p5 conference had no team in the top 2 seed lines.

There is no shortage of counterexamples disproving your hypothesis, and there is zero evidence supporting it. Why you continue to cling to this arbitrary theory conjured up purely from your own fancy is beyond me.

It's hard enough dealing with all the conspiracy talk here of how the committee's top priority is screwing over UConn etc. without compounding it like this.

No conspiracy. It's an ideal. Conspiracy takes a meeting of the minds and acting in concert to attain a goal. Balancing the national conferences is an ideal, which cannot be attained at all times. This is just a belief that the pie should be cut into equal pieces so that everybody gets their best opportunity whenever possible. Like the idea of automatic qualifiers. Is it a conspiracy when everybody rebels against the thought of the SEC or Big getting getting 3 of 4 football playoff spots?

I fully admit the Big 12 fiasco of last year and other examples where my ideal could not work out. In fact, The Big 12 clearly was not deserving of anything above a four seed - if that.. It almost feels like the committee jumped them up to get a four seed.The ideal cannot be attained every year. But the committee should not be prevented from, or criticized if its members do spread things around - (without deviating too far from the NET)

I am lost on what @visitingcock is arguing as there is evidence that a P5 + UConn champ has been left out of a top 2 seed. Back in 2018, the Big 10 Champ tOSU was a #3 seed (Maryland was #5 seed). In fact I have never heard quibbles about the #1 or #2 seeds but mostly what region a school was placed in as most always wanted to avoid Bridgeport or Albany as they view that as CT turf.

There is no evidence from what I can see going back to 2017 of the committee "artificially" propping up a P5 school into the top 2 slots simply because they won the conference. By "winning" I am assuming that Visitingcock is referring to the regular season winner as Kentucky did win the SECT in 2022 and was a #6 seed but that was because they upset his Gamecocks.

In 2017 Maryland won the Big 10 and was a #3 seed in Bridgeport (and so was #2 Duke) and both schools complained because Connecticut was the #1 seed.

What am I misunderstanding?

Your are misunderstanding the magnitude of adjustments. No I'm not saying the jump a NET-16 ranked conference winner to a top 2 seed. I'm saying that a team can be dropped or raised three or four NET rank spots to achieve a closer equality of conference champions. The eighth and ninth ranked teams can be switched. So can the eighth and 12th.

 

[LoTrader]

Big games this weekend for the Beavers, if Raegan can stay out of foul trouble against Brink, the Beavers have a shot.

Going to take more than Raegan Beers staying out of foul trouble. Other Beavers are going to have to step up. Defense has to be stout, and Beavers have to limit turnovers. But first, have to get the W vs Cal Bears.

 

[DefenseBB]

TVO and Gardiner will step up!

 

[DefenseBB]

No conspiracy. It's an ideal. Conspiracy takes a meeting of the minds and acting in concert to attain a goal. Balancing the national conferences is an ideal, which cannot be attained at all times. This is just a belief that the pie should be cut into equal pieces so that everybody gets their best opportunity whenever possible. Like the idea of automatic qualifiers. Is it a conspiracy when everybody rebels against the thought of the SEC or Big getting getting 3 of 4 football playoff spots?

I fully admit the Big 12 fiasco of last year and other examples where my ideal could not work out. In fact, The Big 12 clearly was not deserving of anything above a four seed - if that.. It almost feels like the committee jumped them up to get a four seed.The ideal cannot be attained every year. But the committee should not be prevented from, or criticized if its members do spread things around - (without deviating too far from the NET)

Your are misunderstanding the magnitude of adjustments. No I'm not saying the jump a NET-16 ranked conference winner to a top 2 seed. I'm saying that a team can be dropped or raised three or four NET rank spots to achieve a closer equality of conference champions. The eighth and ninth ranked teams can be switched. So can the eighth and 12th.

Ok, yes, the committee can move teams for valid reasons (nefariously stated) up one or down 1 line. Last year, UConn NET was #2 overall but with their record of 31-6, they were moved to one of the 4 number 2 seeds into Seattle. So, in theory, NET had them at #1 seed but the committee moved them to a number 2 seed. Whether that was from #2 to 6 or 7, I do not know but they were moved at least 4 slots on the S curve.

 

[visitingcock]

Ok, yes, the committee can move teams for valid reasons (nefariously stated) up one or down 1 line. Last year, UConn NET was #2 overall but with their record of 31-6, they were moved to one of the 4 number 2 seeds into Seattle. So, in theory, NET had them at #1 seed but the committee moved them to a number 2 seed. Whether that was from #2 to 6 or 7, I do not know but they were moved at least 4 slots on the S curve.

Back to the context of my statement. Three PAC teams could be 1/2 seeds. Four? Almost impossible even if four are in the top 8 NET ranked teams

 

[DefenseBB]

Well your premise could well be blown up this year as the ACC is the weakest of the P5+ UConn (NET 4) list.

Big 12 has both Texas (NET 2) and Kansas State (NET 8) with Baylor (NET 10) as the sleeper
Big 10 has Iowa (NET 5)
SEC has SC (NET 1)

So, at the moment NC State (NET 12) is the ACC leader but is limping along in this middle part of the schedule so all of the PAC 12 four could supplant the ACC champ as 1 & 2 seeds and, honestly, I think only @LETTERL would be upset.

 

[triaddukefan]

I am lost on what @visitingcock is arguing as there is evidence that a P5 + UConn champ has been left out of a top 2 seed. Back in 2018, the Big 10 Champ tOSU was a #3 seed (Maryland was #5 seed). In fact I have never heard quibbles about the #1 or #2 seeds but mostly what region a school was placed in as most always wanted to avoid Bridgeport or Albany as they view that as CT turf.

There is no evidence from what I can see going back to 2017 of the committee "artificially" propping up a P5 school into the top 2 slots simply because they won the conference. By "winning" I am assuming that Visitingcock is referring to the regular season winner as Kentucky did win the SECT in 2022 and was a #6 seed but that was because they upset his Gamecocks.

In 2017 Maryland won the Big 10 and was a #3 seed in Bridgeport (and so was #2 Duke) and both schools complained because Connecticut was the #1 seed.

What am I misunderstanding?

I don't remember Duke fans complaining about a #2 seed.... especially since we were picked to finish 6th in the ACC in the preseason. I think MD probably was upset at being behind Duke being that they split the regular season and won the Big 10 tourney, while Duke was tied for 2nd in the ACC regular season and lost to ND in the ACC final.

I definitely was salty (and still am) about Duke being a #2 and being send to Trenton in 2011.

 

[Plebe]

No conspiracy. It's an ideal. Conspiracy takes a meeting of the minds and acting in concert to attain a goal. Balancing the national conferences is an ideal, which cannot be attained at all times. This is just a belief that the pie should be cut into equal pieces so that everybody gets their best opportunity whenever possible. Like the idea of automatic qualifiers. Is it a conspiracy when everybody rebels against the thought of the SEC or Big getting getting 3 of 4 football playoff spots?

I see lots of sentences here but zero evidence to support your claim.

In 2017 almost everyone expected Maryland to get a 2 seed because they were 30-2 and had won the Big Ten. They got a 3 seed. If the committee were beholden to any semblance of your dreamed-up “ideal” they would've handed Maryland a 2 seed and been done with it. They didn't. Please just stop.

Maryland women’s basketball is a No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament

The Terps are in the same region as No. 1 overall seed UConn.

dbknews.com

 

[DefenseBB]

Actually, it was your coach complaining on her own (She hated being in UConn's bracket) and the fans behalf due to a dearth of tickets available. But then a funny thing happened, Duke got eliminated in the 2nd round by Oregon so Bridgeport became moot. Heck, Maryland also got eliminated before having to play UConn making Brenda's complaints about her team being disrespected moot.

Some people were calling it schadenfreude...but then again that might just be a Texas word our fine friend from down there likes. eh Plebe?

 

[triaddukefan]

I see lots of sentences here but zero evidence to support your claim.

In 2017 almost everyone expected Maryland to get a 2 seed because they were 30-2 and had won the Big Ten. They got a 3 seed. If the committee were beholden to any semblance of your dreamed-up “ideal” they would've handed Maryland a 2 seed and been done with it. They didn't. Please just stop.

Maryland women’s basketball is a No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament

The Terps are in the same region as No. 1 overall seed UConn.

dbknews.com

All that complaining about being in Bridgeport with UCONN and they got their shells smacked by the Ducks in the sweet 16... but I digress.

 

[Plebe]

All that complaining about being in Bridgeport with UCONN and they got their shells smacked by the Ducks in the sweet 16... but I digress.

And if we're honest, some UConn fans were complaining about having to play Maryland in the Elite 8 because they considered the Terps a dangerous team (and they had given UConn its closest game of the season). Some were even arguing they should've been a 1 seed.

 

[triaddukefan]

And if we're honest, UConn fans on this board were complaining about having to play Maryland in the Elite 8 because they considered the Terps a dangerous team (and they had given UConn its closest game of the season).

Let's see ... who did that same Ducks team beat in the 2nd round? I'm trying to remember but maybe you can help us out here

Hey hey... let's stay on topic...


But I will say that I'm still salty at that Green/Yellow school AND Temple.