Upsets!

[LETTERL]

FWIW, Duke is a top 25 team by every statistical measure: 22nd in NET, 17th in RPI, and 24th by Massey. They are 2-3 in Quad 1 and 6-2 in Quad 2. If you poke around the other teams in the 25-30 range, there aren't a lot that have many marquee wins, and a number with some head scratching losses.

(and no, this message wasn't paid for by @triaddukefan )

They also are more healthy now and have a fuller roster than in the earlier games. I don't understand all of the back-handed comments about the ACC, but not all of our teams can be in a true juggernaut like the Big East and have to face Xavier and Butler night after night.

 

[Plebe]

FWIW, Duke is a top 25 team by every statistical measure: 22nd in NET, 17th in RPI, and 24th by Massey. They are 2-3 in Quad 1 and 6-2 in Quad 2. If you poke around the other teams in the 25-30 range, there aren't a lot that have many marquee wins, and a number with some head scratching losses.

(and no, this message wasn't paid for by @triaddukefan )

Got blown out by Clemson, lost to Davidson, needed overtime to beat Georgia. Gonna take more than a win over overrated Virginia Tech to override those three marks in the PSI (Plebe statistical index)

 

[Plebe]

They also are more healthy now and have a fuller roster than in the earlier games. I don't understand all of the back-handed comments about the ACC, but not all of our teams can be in a true juggernaut like the Big East and have to face Xavier and Butler night after night.

I must have missed the post where someone said Xavier and Butler should enter the top 25.

 

[TheFarmFan]

They also are more healthy now and have a fuller roster than in the earlier games. I don't understand all of the back-handed comments about the ACC, but not all of our teams can be in a true juggernaut like the Big East and have to face Xavier and Butler night after night.

+1. I tend to put more faith in a combination of statistics and "eye test" than mere Win/Loss, because over the years I've seen so many teams with terrible losses in November march to huge upsets in March. Was at the Stanford game where Duke took us to the brink, and I was very impressed. They are not a team that is going to beat themselves, so you're going to have to beat them. In that sense, they remind me a lot of OreSU: a little deficient in the ability to generate offense, but tidy, efficient, relentless defensive pressure, as well as a nifty ability to draw fouls. I would be extremely unhappy to be a #2 seed and face either of them in the second round as a #7 seed, so a ranking around 21-24 seems not unreasonable to me.

 

[LETTERL]

Got blown out by Clemson, lost to Davidson, needed overtime to beat Georgia. Gonna take more than a win over overrated Virginia Tech to override those three marks in the PSI (Plebe statistical index)

Maybe the PSI needs a tweak to its algorithm!

 

[TheFarmFan]

Maybe the PSI needs a tweak to its algorithm!

But some statistical measure needs to support the claim the Big East is anything other than UConn and the seven (nine?) ten dwarves.

 

[triaddukefan]

Opens a Top 25 spot for Oregon State, Miami, Duke, Syracuse and a host of others just bubbling under the Top 25 in the last polls.

Duke didn't receive a vote in either the Coaches or AP Poll. Now if we win on Sunday, we should get a few votes... but

 

[Plebe]

But some statistical measure needs to support the claim the Big East is anything other than UConn and the seven (nine?) ten dwarves.

Not sure where I've been quoted saying anything along these lines. You must have mistaken me for someone else.

But Oregon State, whom you and I both esteem, struggled greatly to beat one of those "dwarves" at home. So ...

 

[TheFarmFan]

Duke didn't receive a vote in either the Coaches or AP Poll. Now if we win on Sunday, we should get a few votes... but

Those voters unfortunately tend to orient around (1) prior poll positions and then (2) adjust for current W-L. I'd actually love it if one week they made the AP voters vote without any reference to the prior polls - I'm guessing half of them would omit 1/5th of the top 25 altogether.

 

[TheFarmFan]

Not sure where I've been quoted saying anything along these lines. You must have mistaken me for someone else.

But Oregon State, whom you seem to esteem, struggled greatly to beat one of those "dwarves" at home. So ...

One man's "struggled mightily" is another man's "covered the spread":

 

[triaddukefan]

FWIW, Duke is a top 25 team by every statistical measure: 22nd in NET, 17th in RPI, and 24th by Massey. They are 2-3 in Quad 1 and 6-2 in Quad 2. If you poke around the other teams in the 25-30 range, there aren't a lot that have many marquee wins, and a number with some head scratching losses.

(and no, this message wasn't paid for by @triaddukefan )

 

[Plebe]

One man's "struggled mightily" is another man's "covered the spread":

View attachment 95420

This game was on November 12, at which time Massey was overwhelmingly using last year's data. Villanova was a much better team last season with Siegrist, and Oregon State is clearly better this year. If this prediction were based on this year's data, it would be quite different.

 

[triaddukefan]

Several teams should be on upset alert tomorrow... Looking at you Iowa, NC State, Louisville, F$U

Got blown out by Clemson, lost to Davidson, needed overtime to beat Georgia. Gonna take more than a win over overrated Virginia Tech to override those three marks in the PSI (Plebe statistical index)

 

[Plebe]

Back to the topic of shifts near the bottom of the top 25:

Tomorrow's results could add to the tumult, but it appears likely that UNLV, Iowa State, and Marquette will fall out. The 3 RV teams next in line to enter are Oregon State, West Virginia and Syracuse.

The SEC Network shills the other night were clamoring for Vanderbilt to get ranked, which I suppose could happen if Vandy beats the Vols and another upset happens tomorrow.

 

[Plebe]

Several teams should be on upset alert tomorrow... Looking at you Iowa, NC State, Louisville, F$U

The way NC State has been playing lately, Duke can certainly beat them.

If I didn't know better, I would get the impression you're rooting for Louisville to lose tomorrow?

I really don't think much of Florida State, but I don't think I see them losing at home to Virginia as long as Latson plays.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

I appreciate that your saltiness has no time limits.

I hardly pay any attention to men's hoops anymore, but there are a couple Tourney games from the mid 2000s that I'm not over yet, and probably never will be. Both were epic collapses by the team I was rooting for. Both had lopsided officiating that aided in said collapses. Maybe I don't hate the other team any more at this point, but I kinda feel like those 2 games broke me to some degree, at least in terms of viewing sporting events (I know, not really that important in the grand scheme of things).

He's salty because of all the trips to Biscuitville.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

Awesome that there's someone else that uses the term toboggan. Many years ago, in Jamaica, we met a couple from AL, and in addition to explaining the importance of Auburn/Alabama, they taught me what a toboggan was and sent me an AU one for xmas.

A toboggan is a sled for multiple people, at least that's what it was when I was growing up in NJ.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

What do other people call them? Hats?

I call them ski caps or beanies.

 

[Vowelguy]

Had no idea of the southern definition!

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[cockhrnleghrn]

Had no idea of the southern definition!

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I've lived in the south for quite a few years and I've never heard them called that. I've always called them ski caps, but most people in the Columbia area call them beanies. I usually think of a beanie as a little hat that may have a propeller on top.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Yeah, I thought a toboggan was like a sled, not something you put on your head. Regional dialects, viva la difference!

 

[Vowelguy]

I've lived in the south for quite a few years and I've never heard them called that. I've always called them ski caps, but most people in the Columbia area call them beanies. I usually think of a beanie as a little hat that may have a propeller on top.

Agreed on beanie
I’d probably call the wool hat a winter hat . Possibly a snow or ski hat.

 

[Vowelguy]

Yeah, I thought a toboggan was like a sled, not something you put on your head. Regional dialects, viva la difference!

Correct.
Multiple people seated with their legs on either side of the person in front of them, so that the torsos are all tightly packed together.

 

[nwhoopfan]

I don't even know the official name for that type of head wear in the Northwest. I guess wool hat or wool cap, except they aren't always made out of wool.

Which reminds me of one of my all time favorite sayings I picked up from a hiking/climbing buddy back in the day: Wool keeps you warm and dry, no matter how wet and cold you are! It's brilliant. Could probably work in something about being itchy too.

 

[JellyBean]

You definitely are the leading candidate for BY Poster of the Month

You need to listen to me more Duke is a bad matchup for the Hokies.