They had a whopping six all-american candidates this past year, and lose arguably the best all-around player in the sport. But even Gabby Williams wasn't a great player until her junior season. What is the likelihood of Megan Walker becoming an all-american as a sophomore?
I'd start the team about 8th in the rankings.
Slu, you are one of the most indispensable members of the Boneyard and I admire you greatly. So I'm just really, really surprised to see you say this. With huge respect, I have to say that I think you're
way more pessimistic than necessary on this.
In the fall of 2016, UConn was preseason #3 with a team that had a lot more question marks than the team we'll field next year (2018-19). And it turned out that #3 was too low, as that team went 36-1 against a brutal schedule and came within a whisker of going to the title game, where it would have been the favorite. Next year, we may well be as good as we were in 2016-17 or better -- but even if we're not, that still leaves us far better than #8. Lou and Pheesa will be better than they were as sophomores in 2016-17. True, we lose Gabby and Kia, but Crystal Dangerfield as a junior will be
much better than Saniya Chong was (and I'm definitely not disparaging Chong but rather praising CD). And if we've learned anything from history, we've learned that superstar recruits like Megan Walker are 100% different as sophomores from how they were as freshmen. Pheese, to take but one of many examples, was comparable to Megan as a freshman and very possibly the best player on our 36-1 team as a sophomore. For all we know, it might be just as valuable to have Megan and Crystal next year as it was to have Gabby and Kia when they were juniors -- which would make next year's team better than the team of 2016-17 before we even consider Christyn Williams, ONO, Batouly, or Coombs (the last two of whom might well improve a lot as well in their second year of eligibility at UConn). And again, even if we're not as good as we were in 2016-17, there's a ton of room between that and #8.
Moreover, consider the 2011-2012 team. That team entered the tournament ranked #3 and came within a defensive rebound of going to the title game. And it had
much less talent than next year's team. That team's best players were freshman KML (who entered college no more heralded than freshman Christyn Williams does next year) and sophomores Bria Hartley and Stef Dolson (who, albeit beloved, were not in the ballpark of Lou and Pheesa -- all the more so given that we're comparing them as sophomores to Lou and Pheesa as seniors). That 2012 team also had junior Kelly Faris and senior Tiffany Hayes, who were good players, but not as good in my opinion as we may expect Megan Walker to be next year. And that's not even assuming any contributions from ONO, Coombs, and Batouly.
Slu, do you honestly believe we're going to be the eighth best team in the country entering next season even though we have two of the very best players in the nation plus Crystal Dangerfield -- plus Megan Walker plus the freshmen plus Coombs/Batouly (who might make typical second-year leaps) plus
a coach who's produced the nation's eighth-best team maybe once in the past quarter-century? I realize you're just saying we should
start at #8, but the starting ranking is a prediction of how good we'll be, and there's no reason to predict we'll be anywhere near that bad even at the beginning of the year based on the players we'll have and our past results with similar or less good rosters.
So if that's what you believe, then I think you're going to be very pleasantly surprised!
Gave up smoking really good stuff decades ago, probably why I was able to stay awake during the Tulane game 2-18-17. You must have missed that one. For one to think an AAC loss will never come leads others to think of more serious issues than what someone is smoking.
