Updated Bracketology (3/8)

[Silk31]

Lunardi says St. Mary's bumps UConn to first four out.

During halftime he said they would be in "serious trouble" if they lost.

They played 1, count em 1, OOC game out of the state of CA. That is pitiful and not to mention playing 18 games vs 200 plus RPI opponents. They played 1 top 50 opponent in Cal and they lost. I don't buy this for one minute but hey WCC >>>> AAC right.....

 

[tcf15]

During halftime he said they would be in "serious trouble" if they lost.

They played 1, count em 1, OOC game out of the state of CA. That is pitiful and not to mention playing 18 games vs 200 plus RPI opponents. They played 1 top 50 opponent in Cal and they lost. I don't buy this for one minute but hey WCC >>>> AAC right.....

After watching this: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Silk31]

Lol great consistency shown by Joey Rackets.

I was actually rooting for the Zags because their at large bid case was stronger. No reason why the Gaels should be in the field

 

[zls44]

Team loses title game by 10 points
Team swept by Pepperdine
Team never left California and was 0-1 against top 25 metric teams





Team now jumps UConn.












Sure!

 

[whaler11]

If Wichita isn't in Sunday - I give the committee a vote of no confidence. They would be the best team ever left out.

 

[whaler11]

Monmouth has no case and Bilas pushed them hard.

St Mary's is a marginal case and Vitale pushed them hard.

If both end up in - I might start to buy into the conspiracy theories.

If both end up in over Wichita - I'll make my hat of tin foil.

 

[whaler11]

Team loses title game by 10 points
Team swept by Pepperdine
Team never left California and was 0-1 against top 25 metric teams





Team now jumps UConn.












Sure!

Did Pepperdine sweep if they lost by 15 last night?

 

[whaler11]

This is what I have been saying for the last month. We are not in the situation we are in because we had CCSU, UMass-Lowell, and Maine on the schedule. We are on the bubble right now because we couldnt take care of business in the AAC in the games we were supposed to win. According to that RPI Wizard site, if we just split with Cincy and Temple, our RPI would currently be around 30. If that was the case, I think we are safely in the tournament.

Had they split with Cincy and Temple we'd want a 10 seed instead of an 8-9.

Even just not blowing the lead to Temple would solve almost every problem.

 

[champs99and04]

If Wichita isn't in Sunday - I give the committee a vote of no confidence. They would be the best team ever left out.

I feel for whichever one or two seed has to play them in the round of 32. I think they were the eight in KU's region on the latest iteration. If I were a KU fan, I'd go postal if they were in my pod again.

 

[caw]

Keep going back to this post...not sure who the OP was, but this is what he said:

So I have posted before an article saying that the selection committee looks at 6 rankings:

• RPI
• KPI
• BPI
• Pomeroy
• Sagarin
• LRMC

And I posted some research that if you averaged those six rankings last year, you would have correctly identified every at large team.

Currently, you have to be in the Top 50 of the six-rank average to get an at-large bid. There are 36 at-large bids, 12 conference champs in the Top 50, plus SMU/Louisville.​

As of right now, here is how UConn ranks in each one of those:

RPI: 58
KPI: 46
BPI: 30
Pomeroy: 31
Sagarin: 33
LRMC: 31

Average: 38

So doomed?

 

[caw]

Seriously though:

http://www.kpisports.net/2015/03/18/defining-the-accuracy-of-kpi/

 

[tzznandrew]

Seriously though:

http://www.kpisports.net/2015/03/18/defining-the-accuracy-of-kpi/

Well...we're 45 in KPI this morning. That's our lowest Non-RPI, so let's hope the other metrics perform better this year.

 

[auror]

Looks like Gonzaga win pushed us out in Lunardi's today.

 

[JimHurley]

If Wichita isn't in Sunday - I give the committee a vote of no confidence. They would be the best team ever left out.

.........? Wichita sucks.

 

[caw]

Well...we're 45 in KPI this morning. That's our lowest Non-RPI, so let's hope the other metrics perform better this year.

Last year using those six metrics, the lowest average was UCLA at 48.2, followed by Indiana at 48. Every other team was below 45.7 as an average.

Two low seeds in Buffalo and SF-Austin had metrics to be at large but were AQ, they would have been bubble busters by this metric. 10 AQ were highly seeded.

So taking those six metrics and their averages that puts UConns picture as follows (already removed SMU and UL, but not removing conference tournament favorites like Kentucky, Cincy, etc):

#30 Vanderbilt: 34.7
#31 Notre Dame: 34.8
#32 Butler: 35.3
#33 VCU: 35.7
#34 Texas Tech: 36
#35 UConn: 38***********
#36 Dayton: 39.3
#37 Valparaiso: 41.3
#38 Pittsburgh: 42.7
#39 St. Joes: 45
#40 USC: 45
#41 SDSU: 45.7
#42 Florida: 46.3
#43 South Carolina: 46.7
#44 Colorado: 47.0
#45 Providence: 49
#46 Syracuse: 49.3
#47 Oregon State: 53.2
#48 Yale: 53.3 - AQ
#49 FSU: 54.0
#50 Tulsa: 55.3

AAC notables:
#26 Cincy: 32.0
#59 Houston: 63.0
#71 Temple: 74.7

Note last year there were 10 AQ in the top 30 seeds representing: ACC, AAC, SEC, BE, B10, Pac10, WCC, Big12, MVC, A10. Meaning in my list above the bubble cut line is 45, seeing as how the MVC winner was not in the top 30.

 

[caw]

For those wondering, St Mary's would fall at 27. Wichita State at 22.

So right now the last four out are:
Syracuse
Oregon State
FSU
Tulsa


Then:
Arkansas LR
GTech
BYU
Michigan

Then:
St. Bonnies
Houston
Creighton
Kansas state

Seeding didn't hold great last year but it did make a pretty good cut line.

 

[ellsworth]

Last year using those six metrics, the lowest average was UCLA at 48.2, followed by Indiana at 48. Every other team was below 45.7 as an average.

Two low seeds in Buffalo and SF-Austin had metrics to be at large but were AQ, they would have been bubble busters by this metric. 10 AQ were highly seeded.

So taking those six metrics and their averages that puts UConns picture as follows (already removed SMU and UL, but not removing conference tournament favorites like Kentucky, Cincy, etc):

#30 Vanderbilt: 34.7
#31 Notre Dame: 34.8
#32 Butler: 35.3
#33 VCU: 35.7
#34 Texas Tech: 36
#35 UConn: 38***********
#36 Dayton: 39.3
#37 Valparaiso: 41.3
#38 Pittsburgh: 42.7
#39 St. Joes: 45
#40 USC: 45
#41 SDSU: 45.7
#42 Florida: 46.3
#43 South Carolina: 46.7
#44 Colorado: 47.0
#45 Providence: 49
#46 Syracuse: 49.3
#47 Oregon State: 53.2
#48 Yale: 53.3 - AQ
#49 FSU: 54.0
#50 Tulsa: 55.3

AAC notables:
#26 Cincy: 32.0
#59 Houston: 63.0
#71 Temple: 74.7

Note last year there were 10 AQ in the top 30 seeds representing: ACC, AAC, SEC, BE, B10, Pac10, WCC, Big12, MVC, A10. Meaning in my list above the bubble cut line is 46

Caw, whats your best guess as to where our average would be with a loss friday? You think we still get in?

 

[caw]

The advanced metrics love UConn, so it all depends on if the committee uses them. If the committee sticks to RPI that's not good.

BPI, Sagarin, Kenpom and LRMC all have UConn 29-33

 

[CardiacAndre7]

Let's just win

 

[Jerry1714]

Let's just win

Never thought of that, thanks for being the first one to bring that to all of our attention

 

[CardiacAndre7]

Never thought of that, thanks for being the first one to bring that to all of our attention

Well then, guess I've done my part for the day

 

[caw]

Let's just win

Agreed, to much can happen with other teams in the next few days.

But for now, I'm rooting for Colorado, TT, USC and FSU to lose along with Cuse (though Pitt losing works also).

 

[auror]

Last year using those six metrics, the lowest average was UCLA at 48.2, followed by Indiana at 48. Every other team was below 45.7 as an average.

Two low seeds in Buffalo and SF-Austin had metrics to be at large but were AQ, they would have been bubble busters by this metric. 10 AQ were highly seeded.

So taking those six metrics and their averages that puts UConns picture as follows (already removed SMU and UL, but not removing conference tournament favorites like Kentucky, Cincy, etc):

#30 Vanderbilt: 34.7
#31 Notre Dame: 34.8
#32 Butler: 35.3
#33 VCU: 35.7
#34 Texas Tech: 36
#35 UConn: 38***********
#36 Dayton: 39.3
#37 Valparaiso: 41.3
#38 Pittsburgh: 42.7
#39 St. Joes: 45
#40 USC: 45
#41 SDSU: 45.7
#42 Florida: 46.3
#43 South Carolina: 46.7
#44 Colorado: 47.0
#45 Providence: 49
#46 Syracuse: 49.3
#47 Oregon State: 53.2
#48 Yale: 53.3 - AQ
#49 FSU: 54.0
#50 Tulsa: 55.3

AAC notables:
#26 Cincy: 32.0
#59 Houston: 63.0
#71 Temple: 74.7

Note last year there were 10 AQ in the top 30 seeds representing: ACC, AAC, SEC, BE, B10, Pac10, WCC, Big12, MVC, A10. Meaning in my list above the bubble cut line is 46

This is cool, but overfitting is a real danger here.

 

[caw]

This is cool, but overfitting is a real danger here.

Def possible, just throwing the data out there. It's too early anyway, too many games to be played in the next few days. I will say that if the committee looks at the advanced stats UConn has a better shot than many are giving them credit for.

 

[upstater]

This is cool, but overfitting is a real danger here.

I know I have been beating this horse way too much but...

The advanced metrics might not even matter that much if UConn loses to Cincy and Cincy wins the autobid.

The committee, if they can justify giving 2 bids to other midmajors like the WCC, will need to give one to the AAC as well.

At that point, UConn is competing against Temple, Tulsa and Houston