Updated Bracketology (3/8)

[whaler11]

Monmouth has no case and Bilas pushed them hard.

St Mary's is a marginal case and Vitale pushed them hard.

If both end up in - I might start to buy into the conspiracy theories.

If both end up in over Wichita - I'll make my hat of tin foil.

 

[whaler11]

Team loses title game by 10 points
Team swept by Pepperdine
Team never left California and was 0-1 against top 25 metric teams





Team now jumps UConn.












Sure!

Did Pepperdine sweep if they lost by 15 last night?

 

[whaler11]

This is what I have been saying for the last month. We are not in the situation we are in because we had CCSU, UMass-Lowell, and Maine on the schedule. We are on the bubble right now because we couldnt take care of business in the AAC in the games we were supposed to win. According to that RPI Wizard site, if we just split with Cincy and Temple, our RPI would currently be around 30. If that was the case, I think we are safely in the tournament.

Had they split with Cincy and Temple we'd want a 10 seed instead of an 8-9.

Even just not blowing the lead to Temple would solve almost every problem.

 

[champs99and04]

If Wichita isn't in Sunday - I give the committee a vote of no confidence. They would be the best team ever left out.

I feel for whichever one or two seed has to play them in the round of 32. I think they were the eight in KU's region on the latest iteration. If I were a KU fan, I'd go postal if they were in my pod again.

 

[caw]

Keep going back to this post...not sure who the OP was, but this is what he said:

So I have posted before an article saying that the selection committee looks at 6 rankings:

• RPI
• KPI
• BPI
• Pomeroy
• Sagarin
• LRMC

And I posted some research that if you averaged those six rankings last year, you would have correctly identified every at large team.

Currently, you have to be in the Top 50 of the six-rank average to get an at-large bid. There are 36 at-large bids, 12 conference champs in the Top 50, plus SMU/Louisville.​

As of right now, here is how UConn ranks in each one of those:

RPI: 58
KPI: 46
BPI: 30
Pomeroy: 31
Sagarin: 33
LRMC: 31

Average: 38

So doomed?

 

[caw]

Seriously though:

http://www.kpisports.net/2015/03/18/defining-the-accuracy-of-kpi/

 

[tzznandrew]

Seriously though:

http://www.kpisports.net/2015/03/18/defining-the-accuracy-of-kpi/

Well...we're 45 in KPI this morning. That's our lowest Non-RPI, so let's hope the other metrics perform better this year.

 

[auror]

Looks like Gonzaga win pushed us out in Lunardi's today.

 

[JimHurley]

If Wichita isn't in Sunday - I give the committee a vote of no confidence. They would be the best team ever left out.

.........? Wichita sucks.

 

[caw]

Well...we're 45 in KPI this morning. That's our lowest Non-RPI, so let's hope the other metrics perform better this year.

Last year using those six metrics, the lowest average was UCLA at 48.2, followed by Indiana at 48. Every other team was below 45.7 as an average.

Two low seeds in Buffalo and SF-Austin had metrics to be at large but were AQ, they would have been bubble busters by this metric. 10 AQ were highly seeded.

So taking those six metrics and their averages that puts UConns picture as follows (already removed SMU and UL, but not removing conference tournament favorites like Kentucky, Cincy, etc):

#30 Vanderbilt: 34.7
#31 Notre Dame: 34.8
#32 Butler: 35.3
#33 VCU: 35.7
#34 Texas Tech: 36
#35 UConn: 38***********
#36 Dayton: 39.3
#37 Valparaiso: 41.3
#38 Pittsburgh: 42.7
#39 St. Joes: 45
#40 USC: 45
#41 SDSU: 45.7
#42 Florida: 46.3
#43 South Carolina: 46.7
#44 Colorado: 47.0
#45 Providence: 49
#46 Syracuse: 49.3
#47 Oregon State: 53.2
#48 Yale: 53.3 - AQ
#49 FSU: 54.0
#50 Tulsa: 55.3

AAC notables:
#26 Cincy: 32.0
#59 Houston: 63.0
#71 Temple: 74.7

Note last year there were 10 AQ in the top 30 seeds representing: ACC, AAC, SEC, BE, B10, Pac10, WCC, Big12, MVC, A10. Meaning in my list above the bubble cut line is 45, seeing as how the MVC winner was not in the top 30.

 

[caw]

For those wondering, St Mary's would fall at 27. Wichita State at 22.

So right now the last four out are:
Syracuse
Oregon State
FSU
Tulsa


Then:
Arkansas LR
GTech
BYU
Michigan

Then:
St. Bonnies
Houston
Creighton
Kansas state

Seeding didn't hold great last year but it did make a pretty good cut line.

 

[ellsworth]

Last year using those six metrics, the lowest average was UCLA at 48.2, followed by Indiana at 48. Every other team was below 45.7 as an average.

Two low seeds in Buffalo and SF-Austin had metrics to be at large but were AQ, they would have been bubble busters by this metric. 10 AQ were highly seeded.

So taking those six metrics and their averages that puts UConns picture as follows (already removed SMU and UL, but not removing conference tournament favorites like Kentucky, Cincy, etc):

#30 Vanderbilt: 34.7
#31 Notre Dame: 34.8
#32 Butler: 35.3
#33 VCU: 35.7
#34 Texas Tech: 36
#35 UConn: 38***********
#36 Dayton: 39.3
#37 Valparaiso: 41.3
#38 Pittsburgh: 42.7
#39 St. Joes: 45
#40 USC: 45
#41 SDSU: 45.7
#42 Florida: 46.3
#43 South Carolina: 46.7
#44 Colorado: 47.0
#45 Providence: 49
#46 Syracuse: 49.3
#47 Oregon State: 53.2
#48 Yale: 53.3 - AQ
#49 FSU: 54.0
#50 Tulsa: 55.3

AAC notables:
#26 Cincy: 32.0
#59 Houston: 63.0
#71 Temple: 74.7

Note last year there were 10 AQ in the top 30 seeds representing: ACC, AAC, SEC, BE, B10, Pac10, WCC, Big12, MVC, A10. Meaning in my list above the bubble cut line is 46

Caw, whats your best guess as to where our average would be with a loss friday? You think we still get in?

 

[caw]

The advanced metrics love UConn, so it all depends on if the committee uses them. If the committee sticks to RPI that's not good.

BPI, Sagarin, Kenpom and LRMC all have UConn 29-33

 

[CardiacAndre7]

Let's just win

 

[Jerry1714]

Let's just win

Never thought of that, thanks for being the first one to bring that to all of our attention

 

[CardiacAndre7]

Never thought of that, thanks for being the first one to bring that to all of our attention

Well then, guess I've done my part for the day

 

[caw]

Let's just win

Agreed, to much can happen with other teams in the next few days.

But for now, I'm rooting for Colorado, TT, USC and FSU to lose along with Cuse (though Pitt losing works also).

 

[auror]

Last year using those six metrics, the lowest average was UCLA at 48.2, followed by Indiana at 48. Every other team was below 45.7 as an average.

Two low seeds in Buffalo and SF-Austin had metrics to be at large but were AQ, they would have been bubble busters by this metric. 10 AQ were highly seeded.

So taking those six metrics and their averages that puts UConns picture as follows (already removed SMU and UL, but not removing conference tournament favorites like Kentucky, Cincy, etc):

#30 Vanderbilt: 34.7
#31 Notre Dame: 34.8
#32 Butler: 35.3
#33 VCU: 35.7
#34 Texas Tech: 36
#35 UConn: 38***********
#36 Dayton: 39.3
#37 Valparaiso: 41.3
#38 Pittsburgh: 42.7
#39 St. Joes: 45
#40 USC: 45
#41 SDSU: 45.7
#42 Florida: 46.3
#43 South Carolina: 46.7
#44 Colorado: 47.0
#45 Providence: 49
#46 Syracuse: 49.3
#47 Oregon State: 53.2
#48 Yale: 53.3 - AQ
#49 FSU: 54.0
#50 Tulsa: 55.3

AAC notables:
#26 Cincy: 32.0
#59 Houston: 63.0
#71 Temple: 74.7

Note last year there were 10 AQ in the top 30 seeds representing: ACC, AAC, SEC, BE, B10, Pac10, WCC, Big12, MVC, A10. Meaning in my list above the bubble cut line is 46

This is cool, but overfitting is a real danger here.

 

[caw]

This is cool, but overfitting is a real danger here.

Def possible, just throwing the data out there. It's too early anyway, too many games to be played in the next few days. I will say that if the committee looks at the advanced stats UConn has a better shot than many are giving them credit for.

 

[upstater]

This is cool, but overfitting is a real danger here.

I know I have been beating this horse way too much but...

The advanced metrics might not even matter that much if UConn loses to Cincy and Cincy wins the autobid.

The committee, if they can justify giving 2 bids to other midmajors like the WCC, will need to give one to the AAC as well.

At that point, UConn is competing against Temple, Tulsa and Houston

 

[Jerry1714]

Monmouth has no case and Bilas pushed them hard.

St Mary's is a marginal case and Vitale pushed them hard.

If both end up in - I might start to buy into the conspiracy theories.

If both end up in over Wichita - I'll make my hat of tin foil.

My thing with the tin foil hats is what is their actual argument?

Do they believe the committee is out to "screw" non P5s? Or are they actually crazy enough to think the committee is out to "screw" the AAC? If it is the latter wow.

 

[upstater]

I'll add this. UConn will have played many OOC games against tourney bound teams (assuming Cuse keeps their lead). Gonzaga, Syracuse, Texas, Maryland, and perhaps Michigan if they make it.

This is a good record that not many on the bubble can claim. Of course, UConn lost 3 of those games, so it hurts.

 

[whaler11]

My thing with the tin foil hats is what is their actual argument?

Do they believe the committee is out to "screw" non P5s? Or are they actually crazy enough to think the committee is out to "screw" the AAC? If it is the latter wow.

I was referencing that if ESPN gets it right and those two schools are in - when Monmouth shouldn't be and Bilas is sticking up for them? Bilas?

 

[auror]

My thing with the tin foil hats is what is their actual argument?

Do they believe the committee is out to "screw" non P5s? Or are they actually crazy enough to think the committee is out to "screw" the AAC? If it is the latter wow.

The truth is that the system is biased towards "quality wins", and our conference does not offer these. It's not screwing, it's a bias. Which sounds more impressive, 2-3 against Top 50 or 4-7?

 

[bobbygt]

I'll add this. UConn will have played many OOC games against tourney bound teams (assuming Cuse keeps their lead). Gonzaga, Syracuse, Texas, Maryland, and perhaps Michigan if they make it.

This is a good record that not many on the bubble can claim. Of course, UConn lost 3 of those games, so it hurts.

Even though Gtown and OSU were bad and mediocre, respectively, going 4-3 against all of those teams is decent, not great, but good enough.

Uconn did their part in scheduling and coming up with satisfactory results out of conference.

It's the getting swept by Cincy and Temple, then splitting with UH, Tulsa, and SMU that really hurt.

 

[Jerry1714]

The truth is that the system is biased towards "quality wins", and our conference does not offer these. It's not screwing, it's a bias. Which sounds more impressive, 2-3 against Top 50 or 4-7?

If that is the case Ohio State (2 Top 25 wins) and Michigan (3 Top 25 wins) would be ahead of St. Mary's (0 Top 50 wins) and Monmouth (0 Top 25 wins). They are not.

Also, people wrongly cried that Temple got screwed last year because they hate the AAC, Temple went 2-8 against the Top 50. That is plenty of chances.

 

[auror]

If that is the case Ohio State (2 Top 25 wins) and Michigan (3 Top 25 wins) would be ahead of St. Mary's (0 Top 50 wins) and Monmouth (0 Top 25 wins). They are not.

Also, people wrongly cried that Temple got screwed last year because they hate the AAC, Temple went 2-8 against the Top 50. That is plenty of chances.

Taking what I said too literally. The committee isn't blind, just biased.

 

[Jerry1714]

Taking what I said too literally. The committee isn't blind, just biased.

Not sure why I should not take your argument literally but ok. Do you believe it is a non P5 bias, or an AAC bias?

 

[tzznandrew]

Bubble Watch on St. Mary's:

Saint Mary's [27-5 (15-3), RPI: 38, SOS: 165] This season, Saint Mary's swept Gonzaga in conference play for the first time since the mid-1990s. That's worth noting for two reasons. One: The 2015-16 season is already a legendary one for Gaels men's basketball. And two: If you expected Mark Few's team to lose three games to the same WCC opponent in one season, you were kidding yourself. The question now is whether SMC will get in despite its failure to grab the conference's automatic bid. Frankly, it's hard to see how it wouldn't. Sure, there are the two weird, regular-season losses to Pepperdine sprinkled in there, but that -- and the lack of top-50 wins -- are the only two flaws with a team that has nonetheless played 32 games and lost five of them. If the Gaels are short of a lock, it's because the committee can be weird. Depending on how the bubble shakes out, they may get there before the end of the week. Either way, we expect they'll be fine.

--> I don't know, beating good teams and not losing to bad ones has been the established method of getting into the dance, and St. Mary's failed each of those. Not sure why they should be treated any different than other teams. They literally do not have a Top 50 win. Not one. And they have two sub-100 losses.

Sorry, a team with whose only win against a tournament team came against it's conference auto-qualifier (who wouldn't have made it without the autobid) isn't a tournament team.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Lunardi has Syracuse still in over us. Obviously a win Friday changes that, but I would argue even with a loss Friday we should be ahead of them. Their metrics are not as solid as UConn, and win over us in November shouldn't change that.