Updated Bracketology (3/8)

[Jerry1714]

Monmouth has no case and Bilas pushed them hard.

St Mary's is a marginal case and Vitale pushed them hard.

If both end up in - I might start to buy into the conspiracy theories.

If both end up in over Wichita - I'll make my hat of tin foil.

My thing with the tin foil hats is what is their actual argument?

Do they believe the committee is out to "screw" non P5s? Or are they actually crazy enough to think the committee is out to "screw" the AAC? If it is the latter wow.

 

[upstater]

I'll add this. UConn will have played many OOC games against tourney bound teams (assuming Cuse keeps their lead). Gonzaga, Syracuse, Texas, Maryland, and perhaps Michigan if they make it.

This is a good record that not many on the bubble can claim. Of course, UConn lost 3 of those games, so it hurts.

 

[whaler11]

My thing with the tin foil hats is what is their actual argument?

Do they believe the committee is out to "screw" non P5s? Or are they actually crazy enough to think the committee is out to "screw" the AAC? If it is the latter wow.

I was referencing that if ESPN gets it right and those two schools are in - when Monmouth shouldn't be and Bilas is sticking up for them? Bilas?

 

[auror]

My thing with the tin foil hats is what is their actual argument?

Do they believe the committee is out to "screw" non P5s? Or are they actually crazy enough to think the committee is out to "screw" the AAC? If it is the latter wow.

The truth is that the system is biased towards "quality wins", and our conference does not offer these. It's not screwing, it's a bias. Which sounds more impressive, 2-3 against Top 50 or 4-7?

 

[bobbygt]

I'll add this. UConn will have played many OOC games against tourney bound teams (assuming Cuse keeps their lead). Gonzaga, Syracuse, Texas, Maryland, and perhaps Michigan if they make it.

This is a good record that not many on the bubble can claim. Of course, UConn lost 3 of those games, so it hurts.

Even though Gtown and OSU were bad and mediocre, respectively, going 4-3 against all of those teams is decent, not great, but good enough.

Uconn did their part in scheduling and coming up with satisfactory results out of conference.

It's the getting swept by Cincy and Temple, then splitting with UH, Tulsa, and SMU that really hurt.

 

[Jerry1714]

The truth is that the system is biased towards "quality wins", and our conference does not offer these. It's not screwing, it's a bias. Which sounds more impressive, 2-3 against Top 50 or 4-7?

If that is the case Ohio State (2 Top 25 wins) and Michigan (3 Top 25 wins) would be ahead of St. Mary's (0 Top 50 wins) and Monmouth (0 Top 25 wins). They are not.

Also, people wrongly cried that Temple got screwed last year because they hate the AAC, Temple went 2-8 against the Top 50. That is plenty of chances.

 

[auror]

If that is the case Ohio State (2 Top 25 wins) and Michigan (3 Top 25 wins) would be ahead of St. Mary's (0 Top 50 wins) and Monmouth (0 Top 25 wins). They are not.

Also, people wrongly cried that Temple got screwed last year because they hate the AAC, Temple went 2-8 against the Top 50. That is plenty of chances.

Taking what I said too literally. The committee isn't blind, just biased.

 

[Jerry1714]

Taking what I said too literally. The committee isn't blind, just biased.

Not sure why I should not take your argument literally but ok. Do you believe it is a non P5 bias, or an AAC bias?

 

[tzznandrew]

Bubble Watch on St. Mary's:

Saint Mary's [27-5 (15-3), RPI: 38, SOS: 165] This season, Saint Mary's swept Gonzaga in conference play for the first time since the mid-1990s. That's worth noting for two reasons. One: The 2015-16 season is already a legendary one for Gaels men's basketball. And two: If you expected Mark Few's team to lose three games to the same WCC opponent in one season, you were kidding yourself. The question now is whether SMC will get in despite its failure to grab the conference's automatic bid. Frankly, it's hard to see how it wouldn't. Sure, there are the two weird, regular-season losses to Pepperdine sprinkled in there, but that -- and the lack of top-50 wins -- are the only two flaws with a team that has nonetheless played 32 games and lost five of them. If the Gaels are short of a lock, it's because the committee can be weird. Depending on how the bubble shakes out, they may get there before the end of the week. Either way, we expect they'll be fine.

--> I don't know, beating good teams and not losing to bad ones has been the established method of getting into the dance, and St. Mary's failed each of those. Not sure why they should be treated any different than other teams. They literally do not have a Top 50 win. Not one. And they have two sub-100 losses.

Sorry, a team with whose only win against a tournament team came against it's conference auto-qualifier (who wouldn't have made it without the autobid) isn't a tournament team.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Lunardi has Syracuse still in over us. Obviously a win Friday changes that, but I would argue even with a loss Friday we should be ahead of them. Their metrics are not as solid as UConn, and win over us in November shouldn't change that.

 

[tcf15]

Keep going back to this post...not sure who the OP was, but this is what he said:

So I have posted before an article saying that the selection committee looks at 6 rankings:

• RPI
• KPI
• BPI
• Pomeroy
• Sagarin
• LRMC

And I posted some research that if you averaged those six rankings last year, you would have correctly identified every at large team.

Currently, you have to be in the Top 50 of the six-rank average to get an at-large bid. There are 36 at-large bids, 12 conference champs in the Top 50, plus SMU/Louisville.​

As of right now, here is how UConn ranks in each one of those:

RPI: 58
KPI: 46
BPI: 30
Pomeroy: 31
Sagarin: 33
LRMC: 31

Average: 38

Update from Tuesday...

RPI: 45
KPI: 34
BPI: 30 (does not include Cinci win)
Pomeroy: 29
Sagarin: 34 (does not include Cinci win)
LRMC: 36 (does not include Cinci win)

Average: 34.67

 

[caw]

Update from Tuesday...

RPI: 45
KPI: 34
BPI: 30 (does not include Cinci win)
Pomeroy: 29
Sagarin: 34 (does not include Cinci win)
LRMC: 36 (does not include Cinci win)

Average: 34.67

Lowest at large last year was around mid to high 40 average. With two games max to play, UConn isn't falling that far. It's insane anyone has UConn close to the bubble. RPI puts UConn in and every other metric has UConn higher. Just absurd.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

We are safe. Need 2 more wins for seeding.

 

[Doggie Style]

This morning on SportsCenter Joe lunardi said that our win over Cinci doesn't guarentee we're in! Said it gets us maybe just in the bubble.??? He also said That Temple is not a lock if they lose to us. I don't know if he's just trying to create a little drama/excitement for his segment but if he's not, he's a tool!

 

[tzznandrew]

This morning on SportsCenter Joe lunardi said that our win over Cinci doesn't guarentee we're in! Said it gets us maybe just in the bubble.??? He also said That Temple is not a lock if they lose to us. I don't know if he's just trying to create a little drama/excitement for his segment but if he's not, he's a tool!

I honestly don't think Lunardi has adapted quick enough to the committee's new emphasis on advanced metrics.

That said, let's just win the whole thing.

I don't think Temple is a lock by any means. If we beat them, now that Tulsa shat the bed, it's probably just UConn and Cincy.

 

[patrick]

This morning on SportsCenter Joe lunardi said that our win over Cinci doesn't guarentee we're in! Said it gets us maybe just in the bubble.??? He also said That Temple is not a lock if they lose to us. I don't know if he's just trying to create a little drama/excitement for his segment but if he's not, he's a tool!

I think your absolutely right!
He's creating drama for ratings........... and he's a tool!

 

[tcf15]

I honestly don't think Lunardi has adapted quick enough to the committee's new emphasis on advanced metrics.

That said, let's just win the whole thing.

I don't think Temple is a lock by any means. If we beat them, now that Tulsa shat the bed, it's probably just UConn and Cincy.

Right? I dont think I'll be able to take lising to Temple 5 times in a row. Just win.

 

[gwhuskyfan]

Palm has us in 7/10 game vs providence

 

[caw]

Update from Tuesday...

RPI: 45
KPI: 34
BPI: 30 (does not include Cinci win)
Pomeroy: 29
Sagarin: 34 (does not include Cinci win)
LRMC: 36 (does not include Cinci win)

Average: 34.67

Sagarin up to 31.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Palm has us in 7/10 game vs providence

Now that's more like it.

Have to figure lunardi has been told you have a job here for life, so up until your last prediction which everyone will grade you on, just drive ratings.

 

[Jaker]

the ncaa likes to make money, bet we end up in the NYC pod.

 

[auror]

This morning on SportsCenter Joe lunardi said that our win over Cinci doesn't guarentee we're in! Said it gets us maybe just in the bubble.??? He also said That Temple is not a lock if they lose to us. I don't know if he's just trying to create a little drama/excitement for his segment but if he's not, he's a tool!

Our power numbers will suffer with a neutral court loss to Temple (they're still low in the margin of victory metrics like KenPom, #83). For example, we dropped 13 KenPom spots when we lost at home to Temple the first time (only 3 on the road, guessing it would be more like 6 on neutral).

There's still the possibility of 4-5 bid thieves remaining. The bubble could shrink considerably.

We've put ourselves in a good position, but the combined factors above mean we're not safe.

 

[Matrim55]

Our power numbers will suffer with a neutral court loss to Temple (they're still low in the margin of victory metrics like KenPom, #83). For example, we dropped 13 KenPom spots when we lost at home to Temple the first time (only 3 on the road, guessing it would be more like 6 on neutral).

There's still the possibility of 4-5 bid thieves remaining. The bubble could shrink considerably.

We've put ourselves in a good position, but the combined factors above mean we're not safe.

Naw, we're safe even with a loss - just look at the respective #s for the other bubble teams. We're well aware of our weaknesses, but not theirs (and we're putting too much stock in Lunardi's spew).

It's just about seeding now.

This guy called the whole tourney correctly last season, and has us not even close to the bubble: http://nropp.com/project68-16.html

 

[tzznandrew]

Naw, we're safe even with a loss - just look at the respective #s for the other bubble teams. We're well aware of our weaknesses, but not theirs (and we're putting too much stock in Lunardi's spew).

It's just about seeding now.

This guy called the whole tourney correctly last season, and has us not even close to the bubble: http://nropp.com/project68-16.html

I like this guy: he's right on about Oregon State, South Carolina, and Saint Bonaventure. Also, he's got St. Joe's as an 11.

He says what I say, so I know I can trust him!

 

[jibsey]

Just watched the Bilas crew who had us as 1 of 8 teams for 4 spots. Is cincy in? I missed that part.