Updated Bracketology (3/8)

[BFieldHusky]

Monmouth in...Oregon State out. We are the last team in the field.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

 

[Slasher]

Monmouth in...Oregon State out. We are the last team in the field.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Lunardi is out of his damn mind. Oregon State is almost a lock. They have 11 top 100 wins. 11. They have 0 losses outside the top 100. RPI is #30. Those 11 wins aren't just 80-100 type teams either. They have 6 top 50 wins. There is absolutely no way Oregon State is left out. 53rd ranked non-conference SOS.

 

[Jerry1714]

I put this in another thread but may as well throw it in here too:

Per bracket matrix rankings, these two sites have been the most accurate, and by a decent amount, over the years for "bracketologists" with 3 or more years of doing it.

http://assemblycall.com/bracketology/ - 1st team in the last 4

Connecticut

The good news for Huskies is that they don’t have any losses outside the Top 80, which is more than most bubble teams can claim. The bad news is that outside of victories over SMU and Texas, there aren’t many quality wins on their profile. Sure, a split with Tulsa and a win over fellow bubbler Michigan help, but they were swept by Temple and Cincinnati and also lost to Syracuse and Gonzaga, all of whom are in a similar situation.

All that adds up to a 6-10 mark against the Top 100 heading into a matchup with Cincinnati in the AAC Tournament. A win there should seal the deal, but a loss will leave UConn sweating out the rest of the week.

http://131sports.com/ - 11 seed, but with a bye

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

Lunardi is out of his damn mind. Oregon State is almost a lock. They have 11 top 100 wins. 11. They have 0 losses outside the top 100. RPI is #30. Those 11 wins aren't just 80-100 type teams either. They have 6 top 50 wins. There is absolutely no way Oregon State is left out. 53rd ranked non-conference SOS.

Plus they played the USC/UCLA games without their second best player due to injury. They are still waiting on tests as it relates to his status. Tinkle is a very very good coach.

 

[pepband99]

Lunardi is out of his damn mind. Oregon State is almost a lock. They have 11 top 100 wins. 11. They have 0 losses outside the top 100. RPI is #30. Those 11 wins aren't just 80-100 type teams either. They have 6 top 50 wins. There is absolutely no way Oregon State is left out. 53rd ranked non-conference SOS.

Oregon St is riding on the coattails of the PAC12's massively inflated RPI. Look at their other metrics - they're very mediocre.

 

[Hi-Low]

Last team in according to JLU....most other Bubble teams will have already played 1 or 2 games by 2pm on Friday and moved up or down the board...Pitt/Cuse loser & A-10, Pac-12, SEC, Big-10 bubble losers should all move/stay behind us but some below us could move up....Cincy win should secure us in the field though would think.

 

[Slasher]

Oregon St is riding on the coattails of the PAC12's massively inflated RPI. Look at their other metrics - they're very mediocre.

Even so, they have 6 wins against teams under consideration for an at-large bid. Those are the definition of quality wins. That's the #1 indicator of making the tourney. Yes their computer numbers aren't great, but it's not like their KenPom is in the 70s or 80s.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

Oregon St is riding on the coattails of the PAC12's massively inflated RPI. Look at their other metrics - they're very mediocre.

The metrics could be better. They still beat Iona by 20, Tulsa, Utah, Oregon, Cal, Colorado and USC. That should make the cut in my opinion.

 

[ellsworth]

Lunardi has Cincy as a 9 and somewhat comfortably in (not among last 4 byes)
To me , it does not seem like an "elimination" game for both teams Friday (as he tweeted out Sun night)
For us possibly, Cincy no, they should be in

Hopefully Cincy thinks there in and their back not against the wall.

 

[pepband99]

The metrics could be better. They still beat Iona by 20, Tulsa, Utah, Oregon, Cal, Colorado and USC. That should make the cut in my opinion.

...and 5 of those are in conference, which helps their own "bid probability" too.

 

[Jerry1714]

Monmouth in...Oregon State out. We are the last team in the field.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

I think you will see some back tracking by Lunardi over the next few days on these teams he seems to be on an island with, he has already dropped WSU a seed line, I presume he realized how off he was on them being a 7 and I suspect tomorrow they may drop another seed line.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I'm really surprised that the league is getting between 3-4 teams according to these guys. I still think 2 is certainly possible, given the way the AAC has been treated so far.

It does help to see who we need to root against. Tulsa, Florida for sure.

 

[Tommyboy]

This might be a silly question, but I do know selection committee does take into account player/coach availability. Do our 3 losses during the extended period without Brimah have any impact on selection?

 

[pepband99]

I think you will see some back tracking by Lunardi over the next few days on these teams he seems to be on an island with, he has already dropped WSU a seed line, I presume he realized how off he was on them being a 7 and I suspect tomorrow they may drop another seed line.

Wichita St is going to break the bracketologists. Per today's bracketmatrix update:

1) UConn is actually on more brackets (76) vs WSU (75)
2) Their seed average is 9.84

Insane.

 

[Matt1010]

One potential positive of falling on the 11 seed line is that we have a great chance of ending up with games in Providence or Brooklyn

 

[tzznandrew]

Lunardi is out of his damn mind. Oregon State is almost a lock. They have 11 top 100 wins. 11. They have 0 losses outside the top 100. RPI is #30. Those 11 wins aren't just 80-100 type teams either. They have 6 top 50 wins. There is absolutely no way Oregon State is left out. 53rd ranked non-conference SOS.

Oregon State is a lock only if they are reliant on the RPI slavishly.

Their 5 Top 50 wins are good, but they're all at home, and they're suspiciously all in conference.

Their wins:

RPI - Team - KenPom - BPI - Sagarin
4 - Oregon - 15 - 20 - 21
9 - Utah - 25 - 28 - 23
15 - Cal - 22 - 21 - 26
30 - Colorado - 61 - 47 - 52
43 - USC - 53 - 44 - 49

They're on the bubble, but their lack of bad losses helps. They should be closer to the cut line, I think, than perhaps you think, but they also are in much better shape than a team lie Monmouth, who shouldn't be anywhere near the bubble.

 

[partyATkemba]

Moral of the story: Beat Cincinnati.

The committee hates the AAC, and the more and more the Monmouths of the world lose this week the more precarious our situation. Let's just do what we always do, send Cronin home.

 

[CTBasketball]

The A10 Tournament is key. A few bubble teams (GWU, St. Joe's, VCU, and the Bonnie's) all have a good shot here. We do not want upsets.

 

[tzznandrew]

The A10 Tournament is key. A few bubble teams (GWU, St. Joe's, VCU, and the Bonnie's) all have a good shot here. We do not want upsets.

Let's hope the committee sees through their inflated RPI numbers. They should be a 2 bid conference. Maybe 3.

 

[auror]

Let's remember this for the future. We're in this mess because we lost home games to medium level opponents (Temple, Cincy, Houston). Have to protect the home floor or you punished by RPI.

 

[Ts5034]

Let's remember this for the future. We're in this mess because we lost home games to medium level opponents (Temple, Cincy, Houston). Have to protect the home floor or you punished by RPI.

This is what I have been saying for the last month. We are not in the situation we are in because we had CCSU, UMass-Lowell, and Maine on the schedule. We are on the bubble right now because we couldnt take care of business in the AAC in the games we were supposed to win. According to that RPI Wizard site, if we just split with Cincy and Temple, our RPI would currently be around 30. If that was the case, I think we are safely in the tournament.

 

[zls44]

This is what I have been saying for the last month. We are not in the situation we are in because we had CCSU, UMass-Lowell, and Maine on the schedule. We are on the bubble right now because we couldnt take care of business in the AAC in the games we were supposed to win. According to that RPI Wizard site, if we just split with Cincy and Temple, our RPI would currently be around 30. If that was the case, I think we are safely in the tournament.

But the reason those games hurt is also because of the bad teams Cincy and Temple lost to. Which has nothing to do with UConn.

 

[tcf15]

But the reason those games hurt is also because of the bad teams Cincy and Temple lost to. Which has nothing to do with UConn.

Keep going back to this post...not sure who the OP was, but this is what he said:

So I have posted before an article saying that the selection committee looks at 6 rankings:

• RPI
• KPI
• BPI
• Pomeroy
• Sagarin
• LRMC

And I posted some research that if you averaged those six rankings last year, you would have correctly identified every at large team.

Currently, you have to be in the Top 50 of the six-rank average to get an at-large bid. There are 36 at-large bids, 12 conference champs in the Top 50, plus SMU/Louisville.​

As of right now, here is how UConn ranks in each one of those:

RPI: 58
KPI: 46
BPI: 30
Pomeroy: 31
Sagarin: 33
LRMC: 31

Average: 38

 

[BFieldHusky]

And you figure that playing a team with a better RPI, and slightly better profile in Cincy, that average of 38 won't move too much with a loss. Its the advantage of playing Cincy versus a team like Memphis where you would get no credit for the win, but a loss would kill your profile.

 

[tcf15]

Lunardi says St. Mary's bumps UConn to first four out.