Up to #5 on KenPom

[CL82]

Forget the seeding talk for a minute; if we play like this in March, we're going to the Sweet 16. I like our odds from there.

Agreed. Still…

 

[Hurleyman216]

Iowa State has lost 8 of their last 12 and we BEAT them. Cannot see any rationale for them being ahead of us

But but but…they play in the Big 12 where both wins and losses are good for their resume!

 

[SubbaBub]

We are being compared to the BE teams above us in the standings. We haven't swept any of them and were swept by Xaiver. Hard to argue a Top 4 when you have 4 teams who beat you ahead of you in your own league and none of those are even in the discission for a #1.

Metrics aside, we need to show the Committee we are better than those four if we want to jump above them on the
S-curve.

Will need to beat whichever of the 4 we get in the BET. If we don't get matched up with Marquette or PC, we can assume the Committee will rely on our better metrics if we close the regular season 3-0. Probably the same for Creighton but wil will likely see one or more in MSG. That will settle any argument.

 

[SubbaBub]

The crazy thing is if we win out and win the BET our metrics are going to say we should be a 1 seed which you could definitely make the case for. In past years the committee has stressed the “entire body of work”, we were the best team in the country for half the season even though we started out unranked. I’ve said this before but I personally think the top 5 of the BE is equal to if not better than the top 5 of the Big 12. It happens every year where there’s a conference throned the best in January when conference play starts and once they’re considered the best there’s no way to prove they aren’t until March Madness. I fully expect to see more BE teams in the sweet 16 than Big 12 teams even though the Big 12 may have 3-4 more teams in the tourney and many with higher seeds.





Bet 3 top 20 teams at MSG and it would be discussed.

 

[ctchamps]

I think we had a couple tough ones (we played the top 4 teams in the BE 4 games in a row, 3 on the road), got exposed on some of our sets, Jackson had to adjust to some defensive looks/machups, and then we let it get to our head a bit in the John's/Hall games. The easier part of the schedule let us get some confidence and figure some schematic stuff out, and we're back baby.

Yup.

College teams have ups and downs, and almost no game will be flawless basketball (particularly in this era of parity). But when we are “on,” we are arguably the best team in the nation (and that’s not an accident that Hurley fell into). We have shown that repeatedly now, and we have also shown now that the January slump was just that. The only remaining question is whether we’ll be “on” when it counts - which would always be a question even if we had only 2-3 losses right now.

In my opinion Hurley’s biggest failure this season was allowing an emotional letdown against St Johns after our brutal 4 game stretch.

Also missing the Seton Hall game was just awful timing. Say whatever you want about our coaching, having your head and assistant coaches present for a road game against a tough defensive team is worth at least the 1 point we lost by.

Those two losses changed the perception of the entire season. But they didn’t actually change the reality. Which is exactly why the computer rankings don’t match up with that perception.

These are similar posts stated differently that capture the season really well.

This forum does a very good job discussing skills, athleticism, bb IQ. There is next to no discussion about stoicism, composure, mental fortitude, not getting caught up in the moment, being driven or laid back. These attributes are more difficult to identify and understand but they are just as important in outcomes as those first three aspects of the game.

Those first losses after that 14-0 start resulted in a collective gut punch to the psyche of the team. It's a reaction that is not out of the realm of normality if you observe how the overwhelming majority of people in this forum react during and after games. It's not easy for the vast majority of us to sublimate our emotions. Add that teams began setting up schemes to exploit our strengths and weaknesses, it takes time to evaluate if our players can adjust to those counters without needing for us to change, and then additional time if we are unable to accomplish that to work on our own counters and reach a level of perfection with them. After all there are limits on how much time the team is allowed to collectively practice.

The one point in the above quotes that I disagree with is categorizing the emotional letdown in the St. Johns game as a failure on the part of Hurley or any coach for that matter. We would consider it unreasonable to blame a coach to not make Alex Karaban into a leaping savant like Andre because there are inherent physical differences between those two players. Same with asking players to be able to shoot like Jordan who needs just an instant to make a 3pt shot. That's an alignment of eye, cerebellum wiring and hand coordination that very few basketball player are inherently gifted with. There is a limit to how much a coach can get a player such as Donovan to not let a failed interior shot impact his free throws afterwards. Adama on the other hand rarely lets the events in the game affect his composure and now that he's attained the skill to make free throws it's imperative he should be on the court at the end of close game.

It is not a failure for a coach to get a team to respond when there is adversity. Just ask Cooley when we deflated the collective PC team on that second half run. Or Carter after chasing Jordan three times around the half court through all our screens and he made that left handed layup. The body language he expressed afterwards was revealing.

 

[temery]

The voice of reason, albeit with a big rearview mirror!

'Hindsight on a fan site, is rarely 20/20.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

These are similar posts stated differently that capture the season really well.

This forum does a very good job discussing skills, athleticism, bb IQ. There is next to no discussion about stoicism, composure, mental fortitude, not getting caught up in the moment, being driven or laid back. These attributes are more difficult to identify and understand but they are just as important in outcomes as those first three aspects of the game.

Those first losses after that 14-0 start resulted in a collective gut punch to the psyche of the team. It's a reaction that is not out of the realm of normality if you observe how the overwhelming majority of people in this forum react during and after games. It's not easy for the vast majority of us to sublimate our emotions. Add that teams began setting up schemes to exploit our strengths and weaknesses, it takes time to evaluate if our players can adjust to those counters without needing for us to change, and then additional time if we unable to accomplish that to work on our own counters and reach a level of perfection with them. After all there are limits on how much time the team is allowed to collectively practice.

The one point in the above quotes that I disagree with is categorizing the emotional letdown in the St. Johns game as a failure on the part of Hurley or any coach for that matter. We would consider it unreasonable to blame a coach to not make Alex Karaban into a leaping savant like Andre because there are inherent physical differences between those two players. Same with asking players to be able to shoot like Jordan who needs just an instant to make a 3pt shot. That's an alignment of eye, cerebellum wiring and hand coordination that very few basketball player are inherently gifted with. There is a limit to how much a coach can get a player such as Donovan to not let a failed interior shot impact his free throws afterwards. Adama on the other hand rarely lets the events in the game affect his composure and now that he's attained the skill to make free throws it's imperative he should be on the court at the end of close game.

It is not a failure for a coach to get a team to respond when there is adversity. Just ask Cooley when we deflated the collective PC team on that second half run. Or Carter after chasing Jordan three times around the half court through all our screens and he made that left handed layup. The body language he expressed afterwards was revealing.

You're totally back!

Obligatory widespread reminder:

One
Game
At
A
Time

 

[auror]

Before everyone gets ahead of themselves with the predictive and hybrid metrics, the resume metrics are just as (and for bubble teams more) important.

Currently we're:
Torvik WAB - 14
KPI - 22
SOR - 14

Solid 4 seed numbers. Unlikely any more chances for Q1 wins until the BET. If we get 3 Q1 wins there, maybe a 2. We get to BET final a 3 is pretty likely.

 

[REB1094]

Not a Kenpom post, but Oregon is exactly 50 in NET. We are all Oregon fans for the rest of the year, they need to keep top 50 to be Q1

Nova is 82 with two Q1 games (vs. Creighton, @ Seton Hall) before they play us. Wouldn't it be nice if they won both of those and were a Q1 game for us to end our schedule?

Providence is 40 with two Q2s and a Q3 game left, so I think they're running out of time to get up to 30 and make yesterday a Q1 win

I love the spreadsheets

 

[Edward Sargent]

Look at the resumes of the teams in front of us though. Iowa State, Indiana, Gonzaga, etc. We have better wins than all of them. We have stronger metrics, and it's not particularly close. If we win out, I think we're winning the BET. At that point, there will be zero argument against having this team on the 2 seed line.

Double digit wins Alabama and Iowa St should be mentioned

 

[gsmooth]

Yup.

College teams have ups and downs, and almost no game will be flawless basketball (particularly in this era of parity). But when we are “on,” we are arguably the best team in the nation (and that’s not an accident that Hurley fell into). We have shown that repeatedly now, and we have also shown now that the January slump was just that. The only remaining question is whether we’ll be “on” when it counts - which would always be a question even if we had only 2-3 losses right now.

In my opinion Hurley’s biggest failure this season was allowing an emotional letdown against St Johns after our brutal 4 game stretch.

Also missing the Seton Hall game was just awful timing. Say whatever you want about our coaching, having your head and assistant coaches present for a road game against a tough defensive team is worth at least the 1 point we lost by.

Those two losses changed the perception of the entire season. But they didn’t actually change the reality. Which is exactly why the computer rankings don’t match up with that perception.

yes, you are correct. When you think about it the home loss to St. John's and then the following road loss at Seton Hall is what is separating the top 4 BE teams from UConn. I know Marquette is 13-3, but the other teams in that top 4 are 12-5 while UConn is 10-7.

 

[DCUconnfan]

Fun fact - there's not a single ACC team in the kenpom top 20. That feels really good for some reason.

First one checks in at 29.

 

[Chin Diesel]

Still, probably not. But as of Saturday the committee had them as a 3 seed and UConn as a 5 seed. Now we have 2 solid to great wins since then and they've lost 2 games, so it might have changed

Might have changed????

It's definitely changed.

 

[CTBasketball]

Not a Kenpom post, but Oregon is exactly 50 in NET. We are all Oregon fans for the rest of the year, they need to keep top 50 to be Q1

Nova is 82 with two Q1 games (vs. Creighton, @ Seton Hall) before they play us. Wouldn't it be nice if they won both of those and were a Q1 game for us to end our schedule?

Providence is 40 with two Q2s and a Q3 game left, so I think they're running out of time to get up to 30 and make yesterday a Q1 win

I love the spreadsheets

Root for Oregon. They have an easy schedule on paper until the PAC12 Tournament.

Also root for PC (gulp), we need last night’s win to become a Q1. They need to jump 10 spots in the NET.

 

[homunculus]

The one point in the above quotes that I disagree with is categorizing the emotional letdown in the St. Johns game as a failure on the part of Hurley or any coach for that matter. We would consider it unreasonable to blame a coach to not make Alex Karaban into a leaping savant like Andre because there are inherent physical differences between those two players. Same with asking players to be able to shoot like Jordan who needs just an instant to make a 3pt shot. That's an alignment of eye, cerebellum wiring and hand coordination that very few basketball player are inherently gifted with. There is a limit to how much a coach can get a player such as Donovan to not let a failed interior shot impact his free throws afterwards. Adama on the other hand rarely lets the events in the game affect his composure and now that he's attained the skill to make free throws it's imperative he should be on the court at the end of close game.

It is not a failure for a coach to get a team to respond when there is adversity. Just ask Cooley when we deflated the collective PC team on that second half run. Or Carter after chasing Jordan three times around the half court through all our screens and he made that left handed layup. The body language he expressed afterwards was revealing.

Great post, and this part is absolutely fair. I guess what I was trying to do was illustrate my opinion that there are very real influences outside X’s and O’s or individual player skills - and I think our season’s arc is an interesting case where those factors are having an outsized impact on both outcomes and perceptions. I say the metrics are correct. What will it amount to? That’s why we watch.

 

[Hurleyman216]

We are being compared to the BE teams above us in the standings. We haven't swept any of them and were swept by Xaiver. Hard to argue a Top 4 when you have 4 teams who beat you ahead of you in your own league and none of those are even in the discission for a #1.

Metrics aside, we need to show the Committee we are better than those four if we want to jump above them on the
S-curve.

Will need to beat whichever of the 4 we get in the BET. If we don't get matched up with Marquette or PC, we can assume the Committee will rely on our better metrics if we close the regular season 3-0. Probably the same for Creighton but wil will likely see one or more in MSG. That will settle any argument.

This is true…the problem is none of the other Big East teams had anywhere near the OOC resume that we did. That still has to have value, even if it’s only 40% or so of the overall resume. If other Big East teams get a “pass” for playing poorly in Nov/Dec, we should certainly get a pass for our tough stretch in January. The reality is we lost 2 games we shouldn’t have and one of them we lead for 39.5 minutes on the road without our head coach. Hurley has pointed it out numerous times but the start of our Big East schedule was basically playing every top team in the league on the road. No other BE team had anything close to that. If our schedule was flipped and we played PC, X and Marquette all at home first we may have continued to roll. It’s all hindsight, I’d rather have a January skid and come out playing better in Feb/March, so although our record has a couple extra blemishes on it, I think we’ll look back on that rough stretch as a huge growth opportunity for our team. If we can win at SJU and at Nova I’ll be convinced that we can make a run in March.

 

[auror]

Need to root for:

Xavier (35) - To climb to top 30.
Providence (40) - To climb to top 30.
Oklahoma St (43) - To climb to top 30.

Oregon (50) - Stay top 50.

Seton Hall (71) - Stay top 75. But not by beating us.
Villanova (82) - Climb top 75. But not by beating us.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

Also root for PC (gulp)

I have found this to be easier lately. His latest comments notwithstanding, I like Cooley as a personality. I think their style represents our region well and they are fun to watch with lots of close games.

That said, I hate losing to them more than any other team.

 

[HeGotGame]

We are being compared to the BE teams above us in the standings. We haven't swept any of them and were swept by Xaiver. Hard to argue a Top 4 when you have 4 teams who beat you ahead of you in your own league and none of those are even in the discission for a #1.

Metrics aside, we need to show the Committee we are better than those four if we want to jump above them on the
S-curve.

Will need to beat whichever of the 4 we get in the BET. If we don't get matched up with Marquette or PC, we can assume the Committee will rely on our better metrics if we close the regular season 3-0. Probably the same for Creighton but wil will likely see one or more in MSG. That will settle any argument.

The selection committee explicitly stated that they do not look at Conference standings.

 

[KingAG]

I have found this to be easier lately. His latest comments notwithstanding, I like Cooley as a personality. I think their style represents our region well and they are fun to watch with lots of close games.

That said, I hate losing to them more than any other team.

The “Good Guy” Persona is wearing off really fast. It started with Corey Floyd. These comments came across as “jealous” and “bitter”. I don’t care for Cooley half as much as others do

 

[Rocktheworld]

we really need to win out. our conference record has to be the only thing keeping us off the 4 line. finishing 13-7 coupled with the advanced metrics makes us look much, much better.

People will point to the SOS either way but you’re right

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Just funny for all the grief and aggravation directed towards Hurley, you look up and we've split with PC, Marquette, Creighton and really only have two "bad" losses on the season.

He obviously needs to win in March but having the offense run through Hawkins as opposed to dumping it down low to Sanogo has actually improved both of them. Alleyene showing some signs of life to give us some perimeter scoring when Hawkins sits could be an X factor the rest of the way too.

 

[Huskyforlife]

The “Good Guy” Persona is wearing off really fast. It started with Corey Floyd. These comments came across as “jealous” and “bitter”. I don’t care for Cooley half as much as others do

My best guess is the people he’s friendly with(Media members, his players, recruits) get different treatment than the people he’s trying to beat. That’s why it’s good to suck up to the national media guys, they’ll do a lot of heavy lifting for your public image. I’m guessing Big East coaches would have a different take on his approach. But I’m sure Hurley isn’t anyone’s favorite either.

 

[HuskyHoosier]

Yet somehow the committee is playing selective favorites with the metrics and eye test only when it comes to one school, and that's UConn. We should

UPDATE: 2/23/2023

7 NET (moved up 2 spots last night, which is hard to do this time of year)
5 KenPom
5 BPI (also moved up to 2 spots)
7 Sagarin

be on the 3 seed line right now, with a real shot at a 2.

You can make a real argument with the computer rankings that we should be a 2 right now, with a shot at 1 if we win out.

 

[ElGreco]

I'd expect us to be up to #8 in NET also. Leaving us out of the top 4 seed line, out of Albany, or even out of NYC would be ludicrous.

#7 today

 

[ClifSpliffy]

People will point to the SOS either way but you’re right

hmm, 'sos' let's look at one data source on this 'superior' schedule.
the only ones in our league playing a weaker schedule thus far are
pc
gtown
sj.
2022-23 Men's Big East Conference Season Summary | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

of course, they also have a stat called 'srs -simple rating system'
which shows that we are the tops.
data for everyone!

 

[ClifSpliffy]

this one has us at 22 kpi, 23 elo, and 28 rpi.
i have no idea what those mean. not interested in finding out, either.
what's these got to do with the deciders settin round the table with ap/coaches poll on the jumbotron?
elo is a band to me.
Compare Rankings - 2023 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

 

[auror]

Does anyone have access to Synergy? If so, PM me please. Trying to look up a Hawkins stat.

 

[Kenny11]

Does anyone have access to Synergy? If so, PM me please. Trying to look up a Hawkins stat.

How many times hes been fouled this season while shooting a 3? I would like to know that too

 

[navery12]

How many times hes been fouled this season while shooting a 3? I would like to know that too

Believe it is up to 17 times now