Up to #5 on KenPom | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Up to #5 on KenPom

Joined
Feb 19, 2014
Messages
4,325
Reaction Score
44,029
On paper UConn just avenged a loss to a team that was lower ranked, at home. There's still work to do to make up for the stretch of losses.

Beating St. John's needs to happen.
Look at the resumes of the teams in front of us though. Iowa State, Indiana, Gonzaga, etc. We have better wins than all of them. We have stronger metrics, and it's not particularly close. If we win out, I think we're winning the BET. At that point, there will be zero argument against having this team on the 2 seed line.
 

Chin Diesel

Power of Love
Joined
Aug 24, 2011
Messages
33,130
Reaction Score
102,521
Look at the resumes of the teams in front of us though. Iowa State, Indiana, Gonzaga, etc. We have better wins than all of them. We have stronger metrics, and it's not particularly close. If we win out, I think we're winning the BET. At that point, there will be zero argument against having this team on the 2 seed line.

Yes, if UConn wins its last 3 regular season games and wins the BET, it will be a 2 seed.
 
Joined
Sep 16, 2011
Messages
49,847
Reaction Score
174,061
Look at the resumes of the teams in front of us though. Iowa State, Indiana, Gonzaga, etc. We have better wins than all of them. We have stronger metrics, and it's not particularly close. If we win out, I think we're winning the BET. At that point, there will be zero argument against having this team on the 2 seed line.
Indiana is no longer ahead of us, not sure about the other teams.
 
Joined
Mar 29, 2013
Messages
1,497
Reaction Score
10,095
Yes, if UConn wins its last 3 regular season games and wins the BET, it will be a 2 seed.
The crazy thing is if we win out and win the BET our metrics are going to say we should be a 1 seed which you could definitely make the case for. In past years the committee has stressed the “entire body of work”, we were the best team in the country for half the season even though we started out unranked. I’ve said this before but I personally think the top 5 of the BE is equal to if not better than the top 5 of the Big 12. It happens every year where there’s a conference throned the best in January when conference play starts and once they’re considered the best there’s no way to prove they aren’t until March Madness. I fully expect to see more BE teams in the sweet 16 than Big 12 teams even though the Big 12 may have 3-4 more teams in the tourney and many with higher seeds.
 
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
1,658
Reaction Score
10,040
Look at the resumes of the teams in front of us though. Iowa State, Indiana, Gonzaga, etc. We have better wins than all of them. We have stronger metrics, and it's not particularly close. If we win out, I think we're winning the BET. At that point, there will be zero argument against having this team on the 2 seed line.
Is Iowa St really still ahead of us? Not questioning, genuinely asking. They got crushed twice recently and we hammered them head to head on a neutral court.
 
Joined
Apr 24, 2018
Messages
1,719
Reaction Score
4,387
I'd expect us to be up to #8 in NET also. Leaving us out of the top 4 seed line, out of Albany, or even out of NYC would be ludicrous.
We win out or even get to big east final we are deff a 3. Prolly even a 2. With the way these teams ahead of us are this year, I cud see anything from us being a 10 seed to a (if every single thing breaks right, maybe maybe a 1) I mean , Virginia just lost to bc. We cud be cracking top 10 by the time conference tourneys start Then reel off 3 straight against ranked teams in big east tourney/ plus our NET cud get us a 2. Everything up in air now
 
Joined
May 27, 2015
Messages
13,925
Reaction Score
93,549
Is Iowa St really still ahead of us? Not questioning, genuinely asking. They got crushed twice recently and we hammered them head to head on a neutral court.
Still, probably not. But as of Saturday the committee had them as a 3 seed and UConn as a 5 seed. Now we have 2 solid to great wins since then and they've lost 2 games, so it might have changed
 
Joined
Feb 19, 2014
Messages
4,325
Reaction Score
44,029
Is Iowa St really still ahead of us? Not questioning, genuinely asking. They got crushed twice recently and we hammered them head to head on a neutral cour
They were a 3 seed in the first reveal. They shouldn't be ahead anymore
 

CL82

NCAA Men’s Basketball National Champions - Again!
Joined
Aug 24, 2011
Messages
58,915
Reaction Score
219,081
Just behind Purdue for #4.
Four in KenPom? So, basically we should be a one seed in the tournament.
Just Saying Amanda Seales GIF by NBC
 

SubbaBub

Your stupidity is ruining my country.
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
32,154
Reaction Score
24,973
We are being compared to the BE teams above us in the standings. We haven't swept any of them and were swept by Xaiver. Hard to argue a Top 4 when you have 4 teams who beat you ahead of you in your own league and none of those are even in the discission for a #1.

Metrics aside, we need to show the Committee we are better than those four if we want to jump above them on the
S-curve.

Will need to beat whichever of the 4 we get in the BET. If we don't get matched up with Marquette or PC, we can assume the Committee will rely on our better metrics if we close the regular season 3-0. Probably the same for Creighton but wil will likely see one or more in MSG. That will settle any argument.
 

SubbaBub

Your stupidity is ruining my country.
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
32,154
Reaction Score
24,973
The crazy thing is if we win out and win the BET our metrics are going to say we should be a 1 seed which you could definitely make the case for. In past years the committee has stressed the “entire body of work”, we were the best team in the country for half the season even though we started out unranked. I’ve said this before but I personally think the top 5 of the BE is equal to if not better than the top 5 of the Big 12. It happens every year where there’s a conference throned the best in January when conference play starts and once they’re considered the best there’s no way to prove they aren’t until March Madness. I fully expect to see more BE teams in the sweet 16 than Big 12 teams even though the Big 12 may have 3-4 more teams in the tourney and many with higher seeds.





Bet 3 top 20 teams at MSG and it would be discussed.
 

ctchamps

We are UConn!! 4>1 But 5>>>>1 is even better!
Joined
Aug 24, 2011
Messages
17,193
Reaction Score
43,128
I think we had a couple tough ones (we played the top 4 teams in the BE 4 games in a row, 3 on the road), got exposed on some of our sets, Jackson had to adjust to some defensive looks/machups, and then we let it get to our head a bit in the John's/Hall games. The easier part of the schedule let us get some confidence and figure some schematic stuff out, and we're back baby.
Yup.

College teams have ups and downs, and almost no game will be flawless basketball (particularly in this era of parity). But when we are “on,” we are arguably the best team in the nation (and that’s not an accident that Hurley fell into). We have shown that repeatedly now, and we have also shown now that the January slump was just that. The only remaining question is whether we’ll be “on” when it counts - which would always be a question even if we had only 2-3 losses right now.

In my opinion Hurley’s biggest failure this season was allowing an emotional letdown against St Johns after our brutal 4 game stretch.

Also missing the Seton Hall game was just awful timing. Say whatever you want about our coaching, having your head and assistant coaches present for a road game against a tough defensive team is worth at least the 1 point we lost by.

Those two losses changed the perception of the entire season. But they didn’t actually change the reality. Which is exactly why the computer rankings don’t match up with that perception.
These are similar posts stated differently that capture the season really well.

This forum does a very good job discussing skills, athleticism, bb IQ. There is next to no discussion about stoicism, composure, mental fortitude, not getting caught up in the moment, being driven or laid back. These attributes are more difficult to identify and understand but they are just as important in outcomes as those first three aspects of the game.

Those first losses after that 14-0 start resulted in a collective gut punch to the psyche of the team. It's a reaction that is not out of the realm of normality if you observe how the overwhelming majority of people in this forum react during and after games. It's not easy for the vast majority of us to sublimate our emotions. Add that teams began setting up schemes to exploit our strengths and weaknesses, it takes time to evaluate if our players can adjust to those counters without needing for us to change, and then additional time if we are unable to accomplish that to work on our own counters and reach a level of perfection with them. After all there are limits on how much time the team is allowed to collectively practice.

The one point in the above quotes that I disagree with is categorizing the emotional letdown in the St. Johns game as a failure on the part of Hurley or any coach for that matter. We would consider it unreasonable to blame a coach to not make Alex Karaban into a leaping savant like Andre because there are inherent physical differences between those two players. Same with asking players to be able to shoot like Jordan who needs just an instant to make a 3pt shot. That's an alignment of eye, cerebellum wiring and hand coordination that very few basketball player are inherently gifted with. There is a limit to how much a coach can get a player such as Donovan to not let a failed interior shot impact his free throws afterwards. Adama on the other hand rarely lets the events in the game affect his composure and now that he's attained the skill to make free throws it's imperative he should be on the court at the end of close game.

It is not a failure for a coach to get a team to respond when there is adversity. Just ask Cooley when we deflated the collective PC team on that second half run. Or Carter after chasing Jordan three times around the half court through all our screens and he made that left handed layup. The body language he expressed afterwards was revealing.
 
Last edited:

Hans Sprungfeld

Undecided
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
13,056
Reaction Score
31,771
These are similar posts stated differently that capture the season really well.

This forum does a very good job discussing skills, athleticism, bb IQ. There is next to no discussion about stoicism, composure, mental fortitude, not getting caught up in the moment, being driven or laid back. These attributes are more difficult to identify and understand but they are just as important in outcomes as those first three aspects of the game.

Those first losses after that 14-0 start resulted in a collective gut punch to the psyche of the team. It's a reaction that is not out of the realm of normality if you observe how the overwhelming majority of people in this forum react during and after games. It's not easy for the vast majority of us to sublimate our emotions. Add that teams began setting up schemes to exploit our strengths and weaknesses, it takes time to evaluate if our players can adjust to those counters without needing for us to change, and then additional time if we unable to accomplish that to work on our own counters and reach a level of perfection with them. After all there are limits on how much time the team is allowed to collectively practice.

The one point in the above quotes that I disagree with is categorizing the emotional letdown in the St. Johns game as a failure on the part of Hurley or any coach for that matter. We would consider it unreasonable to blame a coach to not make Alex Karaban into a leaping savant like Andre because there are inherent physical differences between those two players. Same with asking players to be able to shoot like Jordan who needs just an instant to make a 3pt shot. That's an alignment of eye, cerebellum wiring and hand coordination that very few basketball player are inherently gifted with. There is a limit to how much a coach can get a player such as Donovan to not let a failed interior shot impact his free throws afterwards. Adama on the other hand rarely lets the events in the game affect his composure and now that he's attained the skill to make free throws it's imperative he should be on the court at the end of close game.

It is not a failure for a coach to get a team to respond when there is adversity. Just ask Cooley when we deflated the collective PC team on that second half run. Or Carter after chasing Jordan three times around the half court through all our screens and he made that left handed layup. The body language he expressed afterwards was revealing.
You're totally back!

Obligatory widespread reminder:

One
Game
At
A
Time
 
Joined
Sep 6, 2011
Messages
13,003
Reaction Score
70,657
Before everyone gets ahead of themselves with the predictive and hybrid metrics, the resume metrics are just as (and for bubble teams more) important.

Currently we're:
Torvik WAB - 14
KPI - 22
SOR - 14

Solid 4 seed numbers. Unlikely any more chances for Q1 wins until the BET. If we get 3 Q1 wins there, maybe a 2. We get to BET final a 3 is pretty likely.
 
Joined
Jul 16, 2022
Messages
2,661
Reaction Score
18,333
Not a Kenpom post, but Oregon is exactly 50 in NET. We are all Oregon fans for the rest of the year, they need to keep top 50 to be Q1

Nova is 82 with two Q1 games (vs. Creighton, @ Seton Hall) before they play us. Wouldn't it be nice if they won both of those and were a Q1 game for us to end our schedule?

Providence is 40 with two Q2s and a Q3 game left, so I think they're running out of time to get up to 30 and make yesterday a Q1 win

I love the spreadsheets
 

Edward Sargent

Sargelak
Joined
Aug 28, 2011
Messages
3,818
Reaction Score
9,685
Look at the resumes of the teams in front of us though. Iowa State, Indiana, Gonzaga, etc. We have better wins than all of them. We have stronger metrics, and it's not particularly close. If we win out, I think we're winning the BET. At that point, there will be zero argument against having this team on the 2 seed line.
Double digit wins Alabama and Iowa St should be mentioned
 
Joined
Nov 20, 2018
Messages
3,773
Reaction Score
12,888
Yup.

College teams have ups and downs, and almost no game will be flawless basketball (particularly in this era of parity). But when we are “on,” we are arguably the best team in the nation (and that’s not an accident that Hurley fell into). We have shown that repeatedly now, and we have also shown now that the January slump was just that. The only remaining question is whether we’ll be “on” when it counts - which would always be a question even if we had only 2-3 losses right now.

In my opinion Hurley’s biggest failure this season was allowing an emotional letdown against St Johns after our brutal 4 game stretch.

Also missing the Seton Hall game was just awful timing. Say whatever you want about our coaching, having your head and assistant coaches present for a road game against a tough defensive team is worth at least the 1 point we lost by.

Those two losses changed the perception of the entire season. But they didn’t actually change the reality. Which is exactly why the computer rankings don’t match up with that perception.
yes, you are correct. When you think about it the home loss to St. John's and then the following road loss at Seton Hall is what is separating the top 4 BE teams from UConn. I know Marquette is 13-3, but the other teams in that top 4 are 12-5 while UConn is 10-7.
 

Chin Diesel

Power of Love
Joined
Aug 24, 2011
Messages
33,130
Reaction Score
102,521
Still, probably not. But as of Saturday the committee had them as a 3 seed and UConn as a 5 seed. Now we have 2 solid to great wins since then and they've lost 2 games, so it might have changed

Might have changed????

It's definitely changed.
 

CTBasketball

Former Owner of the Pizza Thread
Joined
Aug 27, 2012
Messages
9,863
Reaction Score
32,550
Not a Kenpom post, but Oregon is exactly 50 in NET. We are all Oregon fans for the rest of the year, they need to keep top 50 to be Q1

Nova is 82 with two Q1 games (vs. Creighton, @ Seton Hall) before they play us. Wouldn't it be nice if they won both of those and were a Q1 game for us to end our schedule?

Providence is 40 with two Q2s and a Q3 game left, so I think they're running out of time to get up to 30 and make yesterday a Q1 win

I love the spreadsheets
Root for Oregon. They have an easy schedule on paper until the PAC12 Tournament.

Also root for PC (gulp), we need last night’s win to become a Q1. They need to jump 10 spots in the NET.
 
Joined
Dec 15, 2012
Messages
90
Reaction Score
656
The one point in the above quotes that I disagree with is categorizing the emotional letdown in the St. Johns game as a failure on the part of Hurley or any coach for that matter. We would consider it unreasonable to blame a coach to not make Alex Karaban into a leaping savant like Andre because there are inherent physical differences between those two players. Same with asking players to be able to shoot like Jordan who needs just an instant to make a 3pt shot. That's an alignment of eye, cerebellum wiring and hand coordination that very few basketball player are inherently gifted with. There is a limit to how much a coach can get a player such as Donovan to not let a failed interior shot impact his free throws afterwards. Adama on the other hand rarely lets the events in the game affect his composure and now that he's attained the skill to make free throws it's imperative he should be on the court at the end of close game.

It is not a failure for a coach to get a team to respond when there is adversity. Just ask Cooley when we deflated the collective PC team on that second half run. Or Carter after chasing Jordan three times around the half court through all our screens and he made that left handed layup. The body language he expressed afterwards was revealing.
Great post, and this part is absolutely fair. I guess what I was trying to do was illustrate my opinion that there are very real influences outside X’s and O’s or individual player skills - and I think our season’s arc is an interesting case where those factors are having an outsized impact on both outcomes and perceptions. I say the metrics are correct. What will it amount to? That’s why we watch.
 
Last edited:

Online statistics

Members online
171
Guests online
1,583
Total visitors
1,754

Forum statistics

Threads
158,780
Messages
4,168,176
Members
10,038
Latest member
NAN24


.
Top Bottom