Undefeated teams

[Vowelguy]

While we're passing time during the winter break waiting for the season to resume, here are some calculations done using data from Warren Nolan (www.WarrenNolan.com) and repeated for data from Bart Torvik (www.barttorvik.com). Torvik is somewhat more optimistic about UConn going undefeated than Nolan.

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Expecting a bloody New Year’s Day

 

[EricLA]

I was looking at that chart trying to figure out what H, A, and N meant - thinking it was tied to the probability of a possible loss, etc. Then I realized it's "home, away, neutral" LOL. Took me a minute tho!!

 

[fomalhaut]

I wonder in retrospect whether it was a good idea to entirely ditch the RPI in ranking teams, as it seems to have encouraged certain powerhouse teams to schedule mostly cupcake teams in their non-conference schedules. LSU's schedule is so bad their RPI is 84 (Georgia's schedule is hardly better; they're at 82). Both teams have only one Quad 1 and one Quad 3 win, with 11 in Quad 4.

 

[nwhoopfan]

I wonder in retrospect whether it was a good idea to entirely ditch the RPI in ranking teams, as it seems to have encouraged certain powerhouse teams to schedule mostly cupcake teams in their non-conference schedules. LSU's schedule is so bad their RPI is 84 (Georgia's schedule is hardly better; they're at 82). Both teams have only one Quad 1 and one Quad 3 win, with 11 in Quad 4.

I've never been convinced NET is at all an improvement over RPI, and I don't really like the Quads either.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

I've never been convinced NET is at all an improvement over RPI, and I don't really like the Quads either.

I don't think any of them are perfect, of course. It is a combination of different statistical measures (and eye tests) that ultimately probably lead to the best evaluation.

The problem with RPI is that it could be "gamed". As early as the mid-90's we received an article through the WBCA giving the details of how to do it. Authored by an unidentified coach - who wasn't particularly in favor of doing it. I always suspected the anonymous coach was PHS, but no proof.

Of course, they probably all can be gamed, I'm just not up on how to do it.

I don't think LSU's (or other teams with weak schedules) are benefiting particularly under the current rating system, which does reward quads. And SOS factors into NET, as well.