Unbeatens

[trisailin]

As has been written above, now down to 6 unbeaten teams. As of tomorrow, guaranteed to be down to 5 with UCLA and Arizona playing.

Team​	Wins​	Next Games​
Arizona​	13​	1/5 @ UCLA​	1/10 Oregon St​
Kansas​	11​	1/ 4 @ Oklahoma St​	1/8 West Virginia​
NC State​	13​	1/5 Virginia​	1/9 @ North Carolina​
Oregon St​	13​	1/5 Colorado​	1/10 @ Arizona​
UCLA​	13​	1/5 Arizona​	1/10 @ Utah​
UCONN​	11​	1/5 @ SMU​	1/9 Baylor​

 

[maccca3232]

He has the bench, UConn doesn’t.

Quoted is not the first, merely the most recent poster, to speak positively about Oregon's bench.

The most surprising information from my Efficiency data is just how little (almost zero) efficient production Oregon have got from their bench against good teams.

24 Nov 2019 Syracuse (boxscore)
28 Nov 2019 Oklahoma St. (boxscore)
30 Nov 2019 Louisville (boxscore)

Table below shows bench production for Top 6 teams versus RPI Level 1 and 2 opponents as at end of Week 7 (22 Dec 2019).

 

[UcMiami]

Bench is always 'interesting' because so much of the statistics for most of any team's bench is accumulated during generally meaningless minutes and a lot of that is predicated on the otherwise pretty meaningless SOS/RPI.

All you need do is look at a team's minutes in a 50 point win vs. that same team's minutes in a game where the score is close in the 4th quarter.

 

[Dokey]

Bench is always 'interesting' because so much of the statistics for most of any team's bench is accumulated during generally meaningless minutes and a lot of that is predicated on the otherwise pretty meaningless SOS/RPI.

All you need do is look at a team's minutes in a 50 point win vs. that same team's minutes in a game where the score is close in the 4th quarter.

Yes, bench stats are open to too many factors.

 

[trisailin]

As has been written above, now down to 6 unbeaten teams. As of tomorrow, guaranteed to be down to 5 with UCLA and Arizona playing.

Team​	Wins​	Next Games​
Kansas​	11​	1/ 4 @ Oklahoma St​	1/8 West Virginia​

Didn't have to wait until tomorrow to get to 5. Kansas lost to Oklahoma St today. Now 5, tomorrow guaranteed to be 4 or fewer.

 

[Dokey]

It won’t last but in first quarter Colorado is not only outplaying Oregon State, they are humiliating them, forcing several turnovers. Only missed easy layups and short open jumpers has kept Oregon State in the game. At end of one it is Colorado 21-17. The margin should have been greater. Unlike in Oregon game, the very good but very young Colorado team that went 12-0 showed up at Oregon State. Oregon State has too much talent and I expect they will eventually pull ahead and win big but they are not the No. 3 team in the country. And Colorado is no fraud.

 

[Dokey]

Oregon State wins 2nd quarter on threes and free throws to lead 40-30, Colorado wins third quarter, cutting lead to 50-46.

 

[Dokey]

Oregon State stays unbeaten, winning 2nd half 32-30 and game by 12, 72-60, escaping an upset with three pointers. Either Oregon State is worse than thought, Colorado better than thought, or a little of both. Whatever, put this one down to an encouraging game for young Buffs and a warning to Oregon State. Oregon State is third in polls. I am not sure they are third in PAC-12. UConn would have ripped them.

 

[Dokey]

UCLA wins 70-58 to remain unbeaten and drop Arizona from unbeaten. After Oregon State-Colorado game, I would see UCLA passing Oregon State in polls. Or maybe I should say should.

 

[Boreifs]

UCLA wins 70-58 to remain unbeaten and drop Arizona from unbeaten. After Oregon State-Colorado game, I would see UCLA passing Oregon State in polls. Or maybe I should say should.

Could happen in Massey. He had UCLA sixth, right behind OSU.

 

[Dokey]

Could happen in Massey. He had UCLA sixth, right behind OSU.

Yeah, especially when you consider Colorado lost their tall center/forward three minutes into game to an injury but who managed two rebounds before being helped off the floor. Colorado easily penetrated Oregon State’s defense and missed a ridiculous number of uncontested layups and very short jumpers while shooting under 50% at the stripe. Colorado should have won by, say, 6 or 8.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Yeah, especially when you consider Colorado lost their tall center/forward three minutes into game to an injury but who managed two rebounds before being helped off the floor. Colorado easily penetrated Oregon State’s defense and missed a ridiculous number of uncontested layups and very short jumpers while shooting under 50% at the stripe. Colorado should have won by, say, 6 or 8.

Oregon St. also missed a lot of short range shots. But yeah the FT shooting for CU was terrible, left a lot of points on the board. OSU did not play well, they really have not been impressing me since the NIT and @ Miami. Been a long stretch of games of mediocre ball for them.

 

[Centerstream]

Deb Antonelli has a vote and she stated today (before the OSU game) that OSU is her #1 team.

I think that this was during the UVA-NC State game.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Deb Antonelli has a vote and she stated today (before the OSU game) that OSU is her #1 team.

I think that this was during the UVA-NC State game.

I don't have a vote, but I disagree w/ Deb. They have not been playing anything like a #1 team.

 

[HuskyNan]

Instead of ignoring, prepare. Only one UConn player, Walker, could crack the Oregon lineup and she might actually be the sixth player. Kelly Graves is a very good coach. He could have told his players: have fun, do whatever you want, you are just better. Instead, he looked at the freshman point guard coming off a near triple double against Utah and told his team to attack her, get her in foul trouble. He looked at Colorado’s powerful forward-post player and attacked, getting her into foul trouble, thus keeping the ball out of the hands of CU’s best three point threat. He ordered a fierce, relentless defense against young, inexperienced. What he will do against UConn is to attack Liv, getting her into foul trouble, and once she is on the bench, running wild. He has the bench, UConn doesn’t. An Oregon starter was out for one game, the bench replacement scored 34, and went back to bench.This game is up to Geno to outcoach Kelly. I am just trying to be realistic, looking for ways to win this season, while understanding UConn’s reemergence comes next year and the three years following.

You’re telling me that #1 out of high school Meg, #1 Christyn, #3 Crystal, and #5 Liv wouldn’t have a shot at making the starting lineup? Uh, did you know Oregon recruited Anna Makurat? Man, that PAC 12 Kool Aid is some strong stuff

 

[PacoBlaze]

I don't have a vote, but I disagree w/ Deb. They have not been playing anything like a #1 team.

I only mentioned this because I thought that there were quite a few visitors to this forum that talked about OSU being the real #1 team for the last couple of polls, not UConn.
I also thought it strange because Deb tends to favor South Carolina or the SEC in general if given the opportunity.

 

[JordyG]

Instead of ignoring, prepare. Only one UConn player, Walker, could crack the Oregon lineup and she might actually be the sixth player. Kelly Graves is a very good coach. He could have told his players: have fun, do whatever you want, you are just better. Instead, he looked at the freshman point guard coming off a near triple double against Utah and told his team to attack her, get her in foul trouble. He looked at Colorado’s powerful forward-post player and attacked, getting her into foul trouble, thus keeping the ball out of the hands of CU’s best three point threat. He ordered a fierce, relentless defense against young, inexperienced. What he will do against UConn is to attack Liv, getting her into foul trouble, and once she is on the bench, running wild. He has the bench, UConn doesn’t. An Oregon starter was out for one game, the bench replacement scored 34, and went back to bench.This game is up to Geno to outcoach Kelly. I am just trying to be realistic, looking for ways to win this season, while understanding UConn’s reemergence comes next year and the three years following.

I guess UConn should just plan a trip to Europe that day. If Hebard is so good, why didn't she beat out Liv for the final spot on the USA team? And of course, if you think Boley and Moore are better than Meg and CW you've been kissing the wrong end of your horse.

 

[Boreifs]

I only mentioned this because I thought that there were quite a few visitors to this forum that talked about OSU being the real #1 team for the last couple of polls, not UConn.
I also thought it strange because Deb tends to favor South Carolina or the SEC in general if given the opportunity.

She obviously never looks at Sabermetrics, which seems to be common with basketball commentators. In Baseball, that is fortunately not the case.

 

[WestCoast]

After Oregon State-Colorado game, I would see UCLA passing Oregon State in polls. Or maybe I should say should.

That won't happen. But, Oregon State will have to play much better offensively to beat Arizona in Tucson next Friday. The Beavers play solid defense consistently, but the offensive flow and ball movement need improvement.

 

[TheFarmFan]

You’re telling me that #1 out of high school Meg, #1 Christyn, #3 Crystal, and #5 Liv wouldn’t have a shot at making the starting lineup? Uh, did you know Oregon recruited Anna Makurat? Man, that PAC 12 Kool Aid is some strong stuff

whoa whoa, don’t throw the rest of us under the crazy bus! What do we look like, players on Muffet McGraw’s team? I’ve been voting UConn #1 every BY poll this season!

 

[Dokey]

whoa whoa, don’t throw the rest of us under the crazy bus! What do we look like, players on Muffet McGraw’s team? I’ve been voting UConn #1 every BY poll this season!

I am talking positions. Crystal is a tremendous point guard but would she beat out Sabrina? Liv is doing a tremendous job but does she replace Satou Sabally. Or Ruthy Hebard? Does Meg and Cristina bench either or Erin Boley? How does Kyla, Anna or Aubrey match up with Minyon Moore? I am not surprised Oregon was recruiting Anna. I am just trying not to go into this with blinders. And on any given night any UConn player could outplay any Oregon player. Both Oregon and UConn are filled with unselfish team players. Coaching? Hard to replace Geno but Kelly isn’t chopped liver. Still, I love our team.

 

[jonson]

I am talking positions. Crystal is a tremendous point guard but would she beat out Sabrina? Liv is doing a tremendous job but does she replace Satou Sabally. Or Ruthy Hebard? Does Meg and Cristina bench either or Erin Boley? How does Kyla, Anna or Aubrey match up with Minyon Moore? I am not surprised Oregon was recruiting Anna. I am just trying not to go into this with blinders. And on any given night any UConn player could outplay any Oregon player. Both Oregon and UConn are filled with unselfish team players. Coaching? Hard to replace Geno but Kelly isn’t chopped liver. Still, I love our team.

Although I hesitate to take part in a discussion like this--especially here--maybe another way to frame the issue is to ask: if I were a member of the Oregon staff who would I "trade" for whom (as a starter) in order to make the team stronger? So, yes, this is about positions, and it's also about what a player brings to the table for Oregon at this point in her career--not upside, not who will be the better player a year or two from now (or maybe even now), and certainly not about recruiting rankings, which really don't work very well for this Oregon team, and which UCONN, in any case, will always win hands down.

So, given that, I'd trade Erin Boley for Meg in a heartbeat, but after? Christyn may be a better guard than Moore in some (many?) respects, but she is clearly not Moore's equal defensively and mostly adds (imo) something that is already one of Oregon's strengths rather than, as Moore does, expands the team's capabilities. So I'd pass on that one. And, whatever the thinking of the USA team staff, it's difficult for me to see Liv as a more important contributor than Hebard, who has been extraordinarily (and consistently) productive for some three years now, including the game against that US team in November. Again, that doesn't mean that Liv doesn't have a higher upside than Hebard--I believe that's obvious--nor does it mean that down the road her accomplishments won't be superior, but, as good as she is, especially defensively, I don't think that Oregon would be a better team right now with her in the starting lineup instead of Ruthy.

As for Makurat, good coaches recognize good talent. (UCONN also beat out Oregon for Nika Muhl.)

 

[trisailin]

Four teams remain unbeaten. It is possible (though not likely) that these four could remain unbeaten until 2/17 when UCLA and Oregon St play each other.

TEAM​	Wins​	Next Games​
NC St​	14​	1/9 @ North Carolina​	1/12 @ Notre Dame​	1/16 Florida St​
Oregon St​	14​	1/10 @ Arizona​	1/12 @ Arizona St​	1/17 California​
UCLA​	14​	1/10 @ Utah​	1/12 @ Colorado​	1/17 @ USC​
UCONN​	12​	1/9 Baylor​	1/11 Houston​	1/14 @ Memphis​

 

[nwhoopfan]

Four teams remain unbeaten. It is possible (though not likely) that these four could remain unbeaten until 2/17 when UCLA and Oregon St play each other.

OSU's upcoming stretch is at the Arizona schools, Stanford at home and then back to back with Oregon. Chances of remaining unbeaten are extremely small.

edit--UCLA has to play @ Stanford and has Oregon right before OSU, so they also very likely will not be undefeated either.--and @ the Arizona schools; they barely beat ASU in LA this weekend.

 

[nwhoopfan]

2 less on the list after tonight--NC State and UConn both lost.