Unbeatens

[triaddukefan]

Whoa, guaranteeing a VPI win? Bold.

well the game is at FSU

 

[TheGOAT23]

well the game is at FSU

LoL!

 

[Plebe]

Colorado led by as many as 16 points, but Utah fought back to tie it early in 4Q.

 

[Dokey]

Colorado wins by 10, 80-70. Both teams are very young with bright futures. Neither Maxwell nor Makurat were factors for Utah. For CU they take a 12-0 record on the road to take on Oregon and Oregon State. Four players in double figures, including a freshman PG with a double double, chasing a triple. This is a very good, very young team. They lose this year, keep it close next year, and contend for PAC-12 title in three years

 

[Dokey]

Three other PAC-12 teams, Arizona (barely), UCLA, and Oregon State (not impressive) also remain unbeaten.

Elsewhere once beaten Louisville was very fortunate to edge Syracuse.

 

[trisailin]

I was wrong (not shocking). All of the unbeaten teams playing today managed to remain so.

 

[trisailin]

Still 9 teams unbeaten. Here are the upcoming games. Since Arizona plays UCLA and Oregon St plays Colorado, the list will have to be shorter by the end of the weekend!!

TEAM​	Wins​	Next Games​
Arizona​	12​	1/3 @ USC​	1/5 @ UCLA​
Colorado​	12​	1/3 @ Oregon​	1/5 @ Oregon St​
Florida St​	13​	1/2 @ Syracuse​	1/5 @ Miami Fl​
Kansas​	11​	1/4 @ Oklahoma St​	1/8 West Virginia​
NC St​	12​	1/2 Virginia Tech​	1/5 Virginia​
Oregon St​	12​	1/3 Utah​	1/5 Colorado​
Texas Tech​	11​	1/3 Iowa St​	1/8 @ TCU​
UCLA​	12​	1/3 Arizona St​	1/5 Arizona​
UCONN​	10​	1/2 Wichita St​	1/5 @ SMU​

 

[Dokey]

Colorado, 6 home wins and 6 wins on the road, drops next two on the road against No. 2 and No. 3 teams. Arizona holds on until UCLA on the road. In other words, the PAC-12 eats its own. Florida State faces possible upsets. UConn stays undefeated until a potential loss to a three point shooting Baylor. Or Oregon. Or South Carolina.

 

[Plebe]

Quote of the day, from Texas Tech coach Marlene Stollings:

"We decided we have a favorite four new words in the dictionary: Un. De. Fea. Ted." (Huge guffaw from the schlub who's interviewing her.)

Lady Raider Basketball with Marlene Stollings

Video: Lady Raider Basketball with Marlene Stollings. Women's Basketball

texastech.com

 

[Plebe]

Decided to do a strengh-of-schedule comparison of the 9 teams.

Texas Tech takes the art of cupcake overdosing to a whole other level.

TEAM	Massey rank	Massey SOS	RPI SOS	Best 3 wins (per Massey)
Arizona	16	151	251	at Arizona St (38) at Texas (55) Santa Clara (123)
Colorado	27	134	221	Wisconsin (87) at Utah (95) vs. UAB (119)
Florida St	7	31	41	vs. TAMU (18) at LSU (35) Virginia Tech (39)
Kansas	41	232	245	St. Mary's (89) at St. Louis (96) Florida (113)
NC St	12	78	143	Maryland (20) vs. Texas (55) at St. Mary's (89)
Oregon St	5	45	30	DePaul (14) Missouri St (22) at Miami (43)
Texas Tech	68	343	351	at San Diego (189) Sam Houston St (234) Ole Miss (250)
UCLA	6	24	50	at Indiana (9) vs. UCF (53) at Georgia (57)
UCONN	1	2	3	at DePaul (14) at Ohio St (42) Cal (45)

 

[OFID]

This is the first post of a long time lurker. Please be kind ...

As has been noted above, the nine teams that are thus far undefeated have played schedules of varying difficulty. I can't figure out how to paste an image into a post, so a graphical look at the the completed part of the schedules is attached. In an effort to fit a lot of information in there with minimal overstrikes, I used a smallish font size. Since it's a pdf file, you can enlarge the image as much as you would like.

The graph shows:

• just how much better, collectively, are the teams that UConn has beaten compared to the other eight undefeated teams. UConn has easily the best worst victory.
• just how much worse are the teams that Texas Tech has beaten. Texas Tech has by far the worst best victory.
• In addition to Texas Tech, Colorado and Kansas have less impressive best victories.
• Aside from UConn, nobody has an impress worst victory.

Details:

• The Y axis is the current Massey ranking (as of 2020-01-02), not the Massey ranking at the time the games were played.
• The data were processed and plotted in R (The Comprehensive R Archive Network).

 

[OFID]

Since I can only attach one file per post ...

What does the future hold for the nine undefeated teams? A graphical look at the completed and future games is attached.

The graph shows:

• The future opponents of Texas Tech are each much, much better than any team they have played so far.
• Most of Colorado's and Kansas' future opponents are better than the teams they already played
• UConn, while having a fair number of difficult games remaining, has the most easier teams remaining.

When might these undefeated teams lose?

Undefeated Team	First Date Not Favored	First Date Expected Number of Losses >= 1*
Arizona	1/5	1/10
Colorado	1/3	1/5
Connecticut	NA	2/10
Florida St	1/16	1/16
Kansas	1/4	1/8
NC State	2/13	1/12
Oregon St	1/24	1/19
Texas Tech	1/3	1/8
UCLA	2/7	1/17

* The expected number of losses at a given date is the sum of the probabilities of losing the games played through that date.

We could expect Arizona, Colorado, Kansas and Texas Tech to drop from the ranks of the undefeated in the next week or so.

Details:

• There's lots of overstrikes on this plot. In particular, if an opponent is played both home and away, those games will be overstrikes.
• Massey has UConn ranked at #1, so they are expected to win their remaining games. The home court advantage for South Carolina is not enough to make SC the favorite

 

[trisailin]

With the defeat of Florida St last night (by Syracuse), the list now has 8 unbeatens.

TEAM​	Wins​	Next Games​
Arizona​	12​	1/3 @ USC​	1/5 @ UCLA​
Colorado​	12​	1/3 @ Oregon​	1/5 @ Oregon St​
Kansas​	11​	1/4 @ Oklahoma St​	1/8 West Virginia​
NC St​	13​	1/5 Virginia​	1/9 @ North Carolina​
Oregon St​	12​	1/3 Utah​	1/5 Colorado​
Texas Tech​	11​	1/3 Iowa St​	1/8 @ TCU​
UCLA​	12​	1/3 Arizona St​	1/5 Arizona​
UCONN​	11​	1/5 @ SMU​	1/9 Baylor​

 

[trisailin]

This is the first post of a long time lurker. Please be kind ...

As has been noted above, the nine teams that are thus far undefeated have played schedules of varying difficulty. I can't figure out how to paste an image into a post, so a graphical look at the the completed part of the schedules is attached. In an effort to fit a lot of information in there with minimal overstrikes, I used a smallish font size. Since it's a pdf file, you can enlarge the image as much as you would like.

The graph shows:

• just how much better, collectively, are the teams that UConn has beaten compared to the other eight undefeated teams. UConn has easily the best worst victory.
• just how much worse are the teams that Texas Tech has beaten. Texas Tech has by far the worst best victory.
• In addition to Texas Tech, Colorado and Kansas have less impressive best victories.
• Aside from UConn, nobody has an impress worst victory.

Details:

• The Y axis is the current Massey ranking (as of 2020-01-02), not the Massey ranking at the time the games were played.
• The data were processed and plotted in R (The Comprehensive R Archive Network).

What I really like about this graph is that it shows very nicely how UCONN's SOS has been rigorous. There have been many (including here on the BY) that have stated that UCONN hasn't played anybody. I would posit that winning EVERY time against "reasonable" teams is tougher than playing one "good" team and many poor teams. Geno has said (paraphrasing) "I don't care who you are, winning EVERY time is tough, no matter the level of the competition". UCONN's consistent winning no matter the competition is very much a testament to the coaching staff relentless pursuit of perfection.

 

[Dokey]

Since I can only attach one file per post ...

What does the future hold for the nine undefeated teams? A graphical look at the completed and future games is attached.

The graph shows:

• The future opponents of Texas Tech are each much, much better than any team they have played so far.
• Most of Colorado's and Kansas' future opponents are better than the teams they already played
• UConn, while having a fair number of difficult games remaining, has the most easier teams remaining.

When might these undefeated teams lose?

Undefeated Team	First Date Not Favored	First Date Expected Number of Losses >= 1*
Arizona	1/5	1/10
Colorado	1/3	1/5
Connecticut	NA	2/10
Florida St	1/16	1/16
Kansas	1/4	1/8
NC State	2/13	1/12
Oregon St	1/24	1/19
Texas Tech	1/3	1/8
UCLA	2/7	1/17

* The expected number of losses at a given date is the sum of the probabilities of losing the games played through that date.

We could expect Arizona, Colorado, Kansas and Texas Tech to drop from the ranks of the undefeated in the next week or so.

Details:

• There's lots of overstrikes on this plot. In particular, if an opponent is played both home and away, those games will be overstrikes.
• Massey has UConn ranked at #1, so they are expected to win their remaining games. The home court advantage for South Carolina is not enough to make SC the favorite

Colorado plays No. 2 Oregon tonight and No. 3 Oregon State on Sunday. Odds are they will lose both by wide margins and everyone will smile and say this proves that in spite of their 12-0 start, Colorado is a fraud. Of course, anytime you play No. 2 and No. 3, unless you are No. 1, you are expected to lose. Colorado is 8-16 lifetime against Oregon and lost last year 102-43. It also suggests how much a difference coaches make. Under Hall of Fame coach Ceal Barry, CU was a top 25 or better team but has struggled since she gave up her whistle to become CU’s Assistant Athletic Director. Current CU coach JR Payne is in the Oregon coach’s tree. Remember it took a decade for a Geno to win the big one.

 

[JonathanXIV]

Remember it took a decade for a Geno to win the big one.

But it didn't take him a decade to get to the Final Four.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Texas Tech got destroyed by Iowa St., cross one more off the list of unbeatens. A 2 point game at halftime turned into a 30 point beat down. ISU couldn't miss from 3.

 

[WestCoast]

Texas Tech got destroyed by Iowa St., cross one more off the list of unbeatens. A 2 point game at halftime turned into a 30 point beat down. ISU couldn't miss from 3.

Iowa State outscored Tech 31-4 in the third quarter.

Another unbeaten bites the dust... And then there were seven....

 

[nwhoopfan]

Colorado is going down hard, getting destroyed by Oregon.

 

[Dokey]

Colorado down 29 to Oregon at half. I guess Louisville got lucky because Oregon is by far best team I have seen this year. No one close. Sorry. Sure their offense is great but their defense is overpowering. Liv will sit on bench in foul trouble early. Kyla will be manhandled. Crystal will hit threes from long long range otherwise flattened. Meg will be held to under 15. Christyn under ten. Anna will be forced to shoot numerous threes. Aubrey will get into wrestling matches. Molly will speed into turnovers. So have I put the curse on Oregon? If so, I get credit for a UConn win.

 

[DefenseBB]

Colorado down 29 to Oregon at half. I guess Louisville got lucky because Oregon is by far best team I have seen this year. No one close. Sorry. Sure their offense is great but their defense is overpowering. Liv will sit on bench in foul trouble early. Kyla will be manhandled. Crystal will hit threes from long long range otherwise flattened. Meg will be held to under 15. Christyn under ten. Anna will be forced to shoot numerous threes. Aubrey will get into wrestling matches. Molly will speed into turnovers. So have I put the curse on Oregon? If so, I get credit for a UConn win.

Huh? I think your love of Colorado is clouding your judgement here. Colorado stinks and was exposed for the fraud (yes, I am using that word AGAIN) that it is due to it's extremely soft schedule it played. So yes, it was expected to get blown out and will continue to get blown out by the upper echelon of the PAC12 and especially on the road to those teams. Good thing UConn and Oregon play this year so we can actually see the game and not have to read drivel.

On the good news front, I do think Colorado is better than Texas Tech...

 

[Dokey]

Huh? I think your love of Colorado is clouding your judgement here. Colorado stinks and was exposed for the fraud (yes, I am using that word AGAIN) that it is due to it's extremely soft schedule it played. So yes, it was expected to get blown out and will continue to get blown out by the upper echelon of the PAC12 and especially on the road to those teams. Good thing UConn and Oregon play this year so we can actually see the game and not have to read drivel.

On the good news front, I do think Colorado is better than Texas Tech...

No, I always saw Colorado’s weakness. It was their youth that that gave me encouragement. As a former journalist, I just objected to the use of a loaded word like “fraud.” Winning 12 straight, half on the road, deserves some appreciation even if the competition is weak. Are UConn’s conference victories fraudulent because the conference is so weak? No. I was being playful in describing what Oregon would do to UConn players, hoping to curse them, but the hard truth is that Oregon is an extremely talented, powerful team with a deep bench. Having watched all of UConn’s games this year, my honest appraisal is that Oregon is—at least now—a far superior team in virtually every aspect of the game. That, however, does not factor in a UConn home court advantage and other, more intangible issues. I would not be surprised by a nail-biting close UConn win or a double digit loss. By the way, though as a Colorado alum I usually root for PAC-12 teams, in this case I’m UConn all the way. I love excellence.

 

[Centerstream]

Colorado down 29 to Oregon at half. I guess Louisville got lucky because Oregon is by far best team I have seen this year. No one close. Sorry. Sure their offense is great but their defense is overpowering. Liv will sit on bench in foul trouble early. Kyla will be manhandled. Crystal will hit threes from long long range otherwise flattened. Meg will be held to under 15. Christyn under ten. Anna will be forced to shoot numerous threes. Aubrey will get into wrestling matches. Molly will speed into turnovers. So have I put the curse on Oregon? If so, I get credit for a UConn win.

Time again for the Ignore button

 

[UcMiami]

What I really like about this graph is that it shows very nicely how UCONN's SOS has been rigorous. There have been many (including here on the BY) that have stated that UCONN hasn't played anybody. I would posit that winning EVERY time against "reasonable" teams is tougher than playing one "good" team and many poor teams. Geno has said (paraphrasing) "I don't care who you are, winning EVERY time is tough, no matter the level of the competition". UCONN's consistent winning no matter the competition is very much a testament to the coaching staff relentless pursuit of perfection.

I like the section I bolded, but that has been what sets Uconn apart for the last 25 years. There has never been a coach who has prepared his teams for EVERY game the way Geno has at any level or gender in basketball. They almost never lose games they are expected to win. They stand alone in terms of winning streaks (top 3 in D1WCBB four of top 5) and unbeaten seasons (6 double the number for all other teams combined.)

That said, the SOS/RPI numbers are pretty crude because for most teams at the top of D1, it is an aberration to lose to a team outside the top 25 - it happens, but it is not a true indication of how good a team is or can be. So when both RPI and SOS make a huge distinction between a team ranked 75 and a team ranked 325 it is a false distinction when used in reference to a top 10 team. Maybe it is 'valid' distinction between a team ranked 25 vs. 45 for a top 10 team, but not by much - it still represents maybe the difference between 95 vs 97% chance of victory for the top 10 team.

One indication of this is looking at the Massey EL column which represents the cumulative loss potential in % for all remaining games added together - even with Baylor, Oregon, and SC games to come Uconn's EL is 1.64. At the moment no opponent has more than a 50% chance of a win (at SC.) While I think that may be an inflated projection based on this edition of Uconn, it reflects that except those three contests the next closest stands at a 92% chance of a Uconn win.

 

[Dokey]

Instead of ignoring, prepare. Only one UConn player, Walker, could crack the Oregon lineup and she might actually be the sixth player. Kelly Graves is a very good coach. He could have told his players: have fun, do whatever you want, you are just better. Instead, he looked at the freshman point guard coming off a near triple double against Utah and told his team to attack her, get her in foul trouble. He looked at Colorado’s powerful forward-post player and attacked, getting her into foul trouble, thus keeping the ball out of the hands of CU’s best three point threat. He ordered a fierce, relentless defense against young, inexperienced. What he will do against UConn is to attack Liv, getting her into foul trouble, and once she is on the bench, running wild. He has the bench, UConn doesn’t. An Oregon starter was out for one game, the bench replacement scored 34, and went back to bench.This game is up to Geno to outcoach Kelly. I am just trying to be realistic, looking for ways to win this season, while understanding UConn’s reemergence comes next year and the three years following.