UConn vs Gonzaga for a Final 4 Berth

[auror]

Calculating Individual Offensive and Defensive Ratings | Basketball-Reference.com

How to calculate individual offensive and defensive ratings

www.basketball-reference.com

This is how it's calculated. One of the big weaknesses of the measures (IMO, not much of a stats guy) is that it doesn't always account for bad vs good team. A player on Georgetown is going to have a worse defensive rating just because the entire team was poorly coached and it made even average defenders look bad.

Gonzaga and UConn have similar enough SOS and are well-coached teams, so I think comparing the stats is more likely to have good results.

@auror and others would probably know more than me. I'm making a lot of assumptions here.

Yeah on/off are best for this kind of thing, because even if it's bad, you can see how much worse it is with someone else instead. And also just individual box score stats like steal rate and rebound rate. Different tools for different jobs.

If you want to adjust for opponent, something like D-RAPM (essentially an adjusted for others on your team and opponent plus minus) is probably our best bet at the college level.

 

[wingsfan055]

I took UConn minus 1.5 and the over. Don't let me down Danny!

 

[UConnSwag11]

I think Van Gundy mentioned this several times about Clingan. While he was in the paint and while he was getting back on defense

 

[phillionaire]

I think Van Gundy mentioned this several times about Clingan. While he was in the paint and while he was getting back on defense

he stopped at least two fast breaks just by getting back on defense, they looked shook when they saw him

 

[HCCForever]

he stopped at least two fast breaks just by getting back on defense, they looked shook when they saw him

Great year for Clingan. He gets back on D and runs the break well and of course his rim protection. Only major shortcoming is his free throw shooting. I'm quite sure that will improve by next year.

 

[AdamaNation]

He has another year of eligibility if he wants to stay and develop an outside shot.

So let’s Jim Kelly him.

 

[NickDanger]

Gonzaga doesnt worry about silly things like defensive matchups. They'll try and outscore us.

Timme has the most 20+ point games in NCAAT history.

“They'll try and outscore us.”
Isn’t that the goal of most teams entering a basketball game?

 

[Husky25]

Was it a fan or someone actually affiliated with St. Mary's who said they were prepared for UConn because they played against Drew Timme?

 

[NickDanger]

Timme is this generations Christian Laettner…..except he hasn’t won anything. We will manhandle him and then it will be time for him to move onto his professional career in Greece.

You do realize that Laettner had a pretty good NBA career, don’t you, including an all star game appearance?

 

[UConnSwag11]

Pitino was the best coach we’ve face this year but he didn’t have the talent to match. Few is the best coach that we’ve faced where the talent matches. I think we can win but it’ll be a battle. Especially limiting turnovers and staying out of foul trouble. Doesn’t seem like they care for defense, kind of like UNC of years past. Hopefully we can get out in transition and run them into the ground like we did Arkansas

 

[upstater]

This is already a long thread, I didn't read it all, so this might have been mentioned: while Adama got called for a travel down low last night, Timme was getting away with this kind of stuff:

 

[Ripper32]

TCU could have beaten Gonzaga if they didn't run out of frontcourt players, due to the foul trouble. They were forced to play small and it cost them.

 

[Husky25]

This is already a long thread, I didn't read it all, so this might have been mentioned: while Adama got called for a travel down low last night, Timme was getting away with this kind of stuff:

Sanogo usually doesn't travel, but that was a good call.

OTOH, the refs were loose with their definition of a travel call. Newton changed his pivot foot three times on the game's very 1st possession that went uncalled. Ball don't lie however, as he threw it out of bounds.

The refs missed one for Arkansas not long after, IIRC, before everything settled down.

 

[Karmacop]

Interesting statistic from a Zags board:

UConn is 1-4 against teams with a top 10 offensive rating (KenPom).
Gonzaga is #1.

This might indicate that UConn's defense tends to break down against elite level offense, and Gonzaga is the best there is.

 

[80shusky]

This is already a long thread, I didn't read it all, so this might have been mentioned: while Adama got called for a travel down low last night, Timme was getting away with this kind of stuff:

heh I watched that live, remember the play, and didn't notice he picked up his foot.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

Adama will eat Timmie for lunch on O, but Timmie will do his own damage in return. His feet and moves are just amazingly efficient. But, Timmie won’t be able to handle Adama and DC going at him for 40. He was worn down by the end of tonight’s game. All that said, Gonzaga is a team that has resilience and fights through so there can be zero foot off the pedal.

Your area correct Timme is a tough assignment for Sanogo to guard .
He will get his points . Shut down everyone else and don’t get unnecessary fouls because we need you on offense. Timme will have his own problem defensively.
I think UCLA was doing that before they ran out of gas . They were a little short handed which didn’t help .

 

[BGesus4]

Keep in mind that Gonzaga has a VERY experienced coach. Take note of this Wikipedia screenshot from last night...

View attachment 85710

If I’m judging based on teeth, seems like an accurate date estimate

 

[storrsroars]

Interesting statistic from a Zags board:

This might indicate that UConn's defense tends to break down against elite level offense, and Gonzaga is the best there is.

OTOH, it might also indicate how difficult the BE is. Those 4 losses were all to X and Marquette.

17-0 vs nonconference.

 

[StllH8L8ner]

heh I watched that live, remember the play, and didn't notice he picked up his foot.

There was a play in the 2nd half where it looked like he ran across the lane and scored. Looked like a travel to an old schooler like me, but with today’s version of traveling who knows.

He is going to be an issue.

 

[SallyH]

I was living in Idaho in '99 and I had to watch the game in a bar. I was the only one cheering for UConn and I got some strange looks.

 

[ElGreco]

he stopped at least two fast breaks just by getting back on defense, they looked shook when they saw him

 

[Uconn77Duke74]

Nice preview on Gonzaga's SB Nation site:

Gonzaga-UConn preview

They know this will be a battle.

"Newton, the senior point guard, has actually been one of the few not shining oh-so-brightly spots for the Huskies this tournament, particularly his last two games in which he finished with four turnovers a piece."

Some bulletin board material for Newton.
It's nice when your "not shining" guard is also 5 for his last 7 threes in the tourney. I thought his first half threes against St. Mary's were crucial when Hawk was struggling as bit.

 

[Husky25]

Posters who don't like when UConn utilizes the high hedge to defend the pick & roll/pop, are looking at a heavy dose for this game.

Gonzaga's offense IS pick & roll, and unlike Arkansas, they have the horses (plural) on the outside to make you pay. Every one of their guards, as well as a couple forwards, with significant minutes can hit from range. At 38%, pretty much everyone on the team, save for Drew Timme and Hunter Sallis can hit from distance. Malachi Smith (49.4%) and Julian Strawther (42.1%) are particularly lethal.

UConn will have to bring their defensive A+ game tomorrow night.

 

[7774]

Keep in mind that Gonzaga has a VERY experienced coach. Take note of this Wikipedia screenshot from last night...

View attachment 85710

Damn, he doesn't look a day over 350.

 

[HuskyBaggins]

So it’s all different now obviously, but from a universal karma point of view I would’ve preferred ucla.

Ucla in elite 8 is revenge tour stuff from 95. We are awesome on revenge tour.

Gonzaga is the flip side, in 99 Gonzaga was an upstart playing great ball, and we had been knocking on door for almost a decade. We took them out ( like a trip to dentist) for our first FF and NC

2023 Gonzaga has been knocking on door for a decade and now upstart us ( we aren’t a upstart historically but last 7 years were bad and we are just newly “ back”) is playing as the other side of that equation.

We will beat them anyway.

Nah. We were yet to make the final four in 1990. They've already been twice in the last 6 years. If either team is due, it is UConn