UConn VS Duke Analysis, Anyone?

[psconn]

Looking for a relatively unbiased, evaluation of the matchup. I haven't seen Duke play a single minute this year. They have some mighty talented players, as usual. I'm not buying into the Azura vs Duke revenge storyline. If anything Z will be a bit nervous and will be playing against bigger players than she has lately... I'll be happy with any performance from her that is a net positive for the team. How do the usual key players, Pheesa, Lou and Gabby supported by Kia and Crystal (a.k.a. 24, 33, 15, 11 and 5 ) match up player for player?

 

[Orangutan]

Looking for a relatively unbiased, evaluation of the matchup. I haven't seen Duke play a single minute this year. They have some mighty talented players, as usual. I'm not buying into the Azura vs Duke revenge storyline. If anything Z will be a bit nervous and will be playing against bigger players than she has lately... I'll be happy with any performance from her that is a net positive for the team. How do the usual key players, Pheesa, Lou and Gabby supported by Kia and Crystal (a.k.a. 24, 33, 15, 11 and 5 ) match up player for player?

UConn is better than Duke. UConn will win. How's that for analysis?

It's all about Greenwell and Brown for Duke. Neutralize them and they don't have enough weapons to hurt you.

 

[EricLA]

UCONN > Duke by 30 points. Done.

Seriously, we have not played them for a bit. Hard to really know for sure how the matchups should work. Perhaps some UCONN fan who has seen Duke play a bunch of times? Or one of our Duke posters who knows both teams?

Generally, Duke has played a zone or matchup zone for mostly the entire game. I'm sure they will extend the zone to try to bother our outside shooters. This means lots of good ball movement to try to get them out of position, and lots of activity in the high post if UCONN wants to get layups. Otherwise, they will need to rely more on the outside shooting. All our starters except Gabby are good to great 3-point shooters. Lou can get her shot off the quickest, so the key will be to get open players to drain 3's.

I'm not sure if Duke ever plays man defense.

Duke also tends to struggle on offense. Like many teams, they miss layups all over the place. Given how tenacious UCONN's defense is, I expect Duke to struggle on offense. Limiting Lexi Brown's touches and harassing R. Greenwell are the 2 keys to slowing them down. Odom had a great last game, but she's not one who usually scores in bunches. In fact, 4 out of the 5 starters scored in double figures in the win over Georgia.

Also, Duke has a very short bench. Don't get me wrong , they have kids, but in the win over Georgia, one reserve played 9 minutes and one played 7. The rest saw no more than 2 minutes. I don't expect that to change. I believe UCONN will wear them down. We are more fit and athletic than they are and it will be hard for them to keep up for 40 minutes.

Brown (19+PPG) and Greenwell (14+ PPG) are their main scorers. They lost Goreki about a month and half ago in early Feb to a season ending injury and she was the 3rd leading scorer, so kudos to them for getting as far as they have in the NCAA's.

Duke has some decent size in Mathias, Treece, and Williams (all 6'4" or taller) but it remains to be see if they can expose that advantage over Gabby and Napheesa.

Bottom line...

UCONN 82
Duke 53

 

[oldude]

Here’s my analysis, for what it’s worth. UConn regularly played Duke, until they beat the Blue Devils 8 straight times by increasingly large margins, after which JPM decided to end the series.

Duke has a number of good players with experience and some size, but none of them have ever played UConn, with one exception. Lexi Brown played for MD as a freshman against UConn in the FF, before she transferred to Duke.

Duke has had an up and down season with some nice wins, but also some bad losses. The Blue Devils generally use only a 6 player rotation (sound familiar?).

Can’t imagine that Duke will be able to stay with UConn before a packed house of predominantly Husky fans in Albany. I expect UConn to win by 20+.

 

[CocoHusky]

Looking for a relatively unbiased, evaluation of the matchup.

Good luck with that. Duke vs UCONN matchups have been rather one sided since Duke has
been coached by JPM. Part of the reason is that Duke teams have lacked the foot speed and defensive schemes and toughness to even disrupt the UCONN offense. Don't see any defensive matchups that favor Duke so a 20 point MOV for UCONN is achievable. Given the chippiness from JPM about Azura's transfer and Geno Duke barb at the event where he was taped I could also see a MOV of 2x that 20 points.

 

[trb123]

My wife and I went to a restaurant yesterday. The Duke grad waiting at our table pointed at the TV screen where the Georgia game was winding up and said, "We are serving notice today.".

 

[CocoHusky]

Duke has a number of good players with experience and some size, but none of them have ever played UConn, with one exception. Lexi Brown played for MD as a freshman against UConn in the FF, before she transferred to Duke.
Can’t imagine that Duke will be able to stay with UConn before a packed house of predominantly Husky fans in Albany. I expect UConn to win by 20+.

Lexie Brown was sophomore @ MD when UCONN played MD in the 2015 FF. Lexie was a Freshmen @ MD when UCONN play MD in 2013. Duke and UCONN last played in December of 2014 when Azura Stevens was a freshman at Duke. On the current Duke roster, Rebecca Greenwell is another player who has played against UCONN from the game in December of 2014.

 

[Sonny44]

Looking for a relatively unbiased, evaluation of the matchup. I haven't seen Duke play a single minute this year. They have some mighty talented players, as usual. I'm not buying into the Azura vs Duke revenge storyline. If anything Z will be a bit nervous and will be playing against bigger players than she has lately... I'll be happy with any performance from her that is a net positive for the team. How do the usual key players, Pheesa, Lou and Gabby supported by Kia and Crystal (a.k.a. 24, 33, 15, 11 and 5 ) match up player for player?

We win; they lose.

 

[Bronx23]

I didn't see that on the menu!
Watch out what you wish for!
They will be out of the game before halftime!
Bronx23

 

[BlueDevils]

Really excited to see how our players play against Uconn. Its been 3 years. This Duke fan misses the regular matchups.

 

[CocoHusky]

Really excited to see how our players play against Uconn. Its been 3 years. This Duke fan misses the regular matchups.

You might be the only one. Some of those game were " very unpretty" at the end. Remember when someone forgot to remind JPM that she might want to guard #23 even though #23 was just coming back off an injury.

 

[Carnac]

My wife and I went to a restaurant yesterday. The Duke grad waiting at our table pointed at the TV screen where the Georgia game was winding up and said, "We are serving notice today.".

trb123, what a cleverly veiled jab, nicely done.

 

[oldude]

Lexie Brown was sophomore @ MD when UCONN played MD in the 2015 FF. Lexie was a Freshmen @ MD when UCONN play MD in 2013. Duke and UCONN last played in December of 2014 when Azura Stevens was a freshman at Duke. On the current Duke roster, Rebecca Greenwell is another player who has played against UCONN from the game in December of 2014.

Thanks for the clarification. That last game vs Duke was a 31 pt beat down at the XL Center in front of 13,000+ fans. Z played 33 minutes, and had a decent game. Greenwell played 30 minutes without a basket.

Obviously, the game had a significant impact on JPM who decided to stop playing UConn, and Z who eventually decided to start playing for UConn.

 

[CajunHusky]

UCONN > Duke by 30 points. Done.

I'm sure they will extend the zone to try to bother our outside shooters. This means lots of good ball movement to try to get them out of position, and lots of activity in the high post if UCONN wants to get layups. Otherwise, they will need to rely more on the outside shooting. All our starters except Gabby are good to great 3-point shooters. Lou can get her shot off the quickest, so the key will be to get open players to drain 3's.

I know we like to think of UConn as a perimeter shooting team but I think in practice what UConn has shown this year is they prefer to go inside with Gabby, Phee and Azura; and occasionally posting up Lou. Then the 15 foot jumpers, then the opportunistic 3 pointer 0r to keep the defense "honest" and get them to extend.

 

[BlueDevils]

You might be the only one. Some of those game were " very unpretty" at the end. Remember when someone forgot to remind JPM that she might want to guard #23 even though #23 was just coming back off an injury.

DO I? Maaaaan KML went off that game. That one really hurt, because that was the year I believed a backcourt of Alexis Jones and Chelsea Gray would be enough to beat Uconn. I was wrong...

 

[RockyMTblue2]

I'm too exhausted from the first 2 games to think intelligently about the next one. 538 says Duke has a 2% shot of advancing over UConn. Massey says 4% in a 75-55 most likely game. Massey has been off as much as on this year, but anything can happen in the NCAAs. With USC the likely opponent if UConn beats Duke Geno will want to conserve gas, but still has the short bench issue- though I think that bench has gotten longer.

 

[ochoopsfan]

Former high school teammates face each other.
Lou and Jayda Adams.

 

[veryolddog]

I do not see what all of this wasted discussion is about. UConn will crush Duke. Z will score 36 points in 15 minutes of playing time. Joanne will be crying on the bench and be blaming all of her players at the press conference.

 

[oldude]

Former high school teammates face each other.
Lou and Jayda Adams.

Jayda is Duke’s 6th man. Last night she played 18 minutes with 3 pts, 1 ast, 0 rbs

 

[Rocket009]

I do not see what all of this wasted discussion is about. UConn will crush Duke. Z will score 36 points in 15 minutes of playing time. Joanne will be crying on the bench and be blaming all of her players at the press conference.

You forgot that she will complain that they needed to guard #23, 24 and 33 better.

 

[VAMike23]

Scoring prediction

Us: A lot

Them: Not so much

 

[scubadog]

My wife and I went to a restaurant yesterday. The Duke grad waiting at our table pointed at the TV screen where the Georgia game was winding up and said, "We are serving notice today.".

Sorry, but Georgia is way overrated , and can't throw the ball in the ocean.

 

[Charliebball]

The final score depends on which Duke team shows up.........................the team that lost to Louisville by six or the team that lost to Villanova by nine.................

 

[BigBird]

For some reason, I am worried about this game. Our kids lost in last year’s tourney to a team that never should have been with ten points of the Huskies.

 

[ochoopsfan]

Former high school teammates face each other.
Lou and Jayda Adams.

You know something, I think Odom was a teammate of Lou's for one year at Mater Dei. Unless it is a different Odom.