UConn v. South Carolina 2025

[BfromCT]

Well, now that all the preliminary games have been played, it is time for the most consequential game of the regular season. This is the last chance for the Huskies to get a signature win before the tournament. If the Gamecocks defeat UConn by a substantial margin of 15+ points, then it is likely that the Huskies will drop to a 3 seed. A close game with a loss by 5 points or less on the road will probably not hurt possible seeding. The team might retain its 2 seed, albeit as the 3rd of 4th ranked 2 seed. In the unlikely event of a victory, the Huskies will probably move to become one of the top two number 2 seeds with the remote possibility of becoming the weakest 1 seed, depending on how higher ranked teams play for the remaining games of the season and league tournaments.

We know that South Carolina, like LSU and Tennessee, has size and athleticism. Any chance for UConn depends on freeing up Paige for shots and her hitting them and a third player, in addition to Sarah Strong, being an offensive threat, whether the player is Fudd, Chen, or Shade. Paige has to take around 20 shots, shoot whenever she is open instead of passing, and must be able to both hit some 3s and get to the foul line. We know that the Gamecocks will focus on Bueckers and try to make certain that she doesn’t defeat them and they have the bodies to muzzle her. If the team does not get some offense from another guard, it will be a long and painful night. Instead of 20-25% from 3 point range as against ND, USC, and TN, the team must hit 40% as against St. John's. In addition, the team must get something from the post position and that means Jana El Alfy. We can hope that Aubrey Griffin will be able to give us a good 15-20 minutes, particularly since both Ice Brady and Morgan Chelli are injured. I find it difficult to believe that a small team can stay with South Carolina on the boards.

Against St. John’s last night, Strong was not an offensive threat, Fudd shot the lights out, and Paige did not take many shots. Azzi's performance will give the Gamecocks something to think about and we must hope that Sarah will rebound from her lack of offense in the last two games.

The Huskies will be a distinct underdog for the first time this season. Impossible, no, but a victory will be a true upset.

 

[David54]

SC is maybe the best defensive team in the country. We are going to need big performances by Shade and Aubrey to win. Azzi likely will find it more difficult to get open than she did last night. Paige can’t be guarded one on one so they will be hedging on her. That should provide Shade with more opportunities to score. So this may be her big opportunity to shine in a big game. And Aubrey is our best chance to keep close to them in rebounding.

 

[Tonyc]

We need to score consistently from 4 players. That means get open and hit the shot. What we cant do is hesitate or rush our shots. We have the players,that is not the question. Paige needs to be the leader and we need to focus on what we need to do not what the defense is doing. Our focus needs to be on our execution.

We were in the games we lost. We now have a healthy Azzi and Griff. I think that could make the difference. It been frustrating watching UConn falter in big games because we know what they are capable of. Sunday we need to step up, and show up.

 

[Bone Dog]

We know that South Carolina, like LSU and Tennessee, has size and athleticism. Any chance for UConn depends on freeing up Paige for shots and her hitting them and a third player, in addition to Sarah Strong, being an offensive threat, whether the player is Fudd, Chen, or Shade. Paige has to take around 20 shots, shoot whenever she is open instead of passing, and must be able to both hit some 3s and get to the foul line. We know that the Gamecocks will focus on Bueckers and try to make certain that she doesn’t defeat them and they have the bodies to muzzle her. If the team does not get some offense from another guard, it will be a long and painful night. Instead of 20-25% from 3 point range as against ND, USC, and TN, the team must hit 40% as against St. John's. In addition, the team must get something from the post position and that means Jana El Alfy. We can hope that Aubrey Griffin will be able to give us a good 15-20 minutes, particularly since both Ice Brady and Morgan Chelli are injured. I find it difficult to believe that a small team can stay with South Carolina on the boards.

Good analysis. A couple of things stand out for me in what you’ve said.

• SC plays a smaller team than it has since Boston arrived. This could change if Walker Dauda or Tac see any significant minutes. But this hasn’t happened much this season.
• That said, without Ice and Morgan Geno will have to play a smaller team than Dawn does. Jana towers over SC’s frontcourt player, but after her it’s just Jana and Aubrey.
• Your observation that SC is sure to key on Paige is certainly right, but given their overall team speed they probably won’t have to double team her much which is a huge advantage for them.
• Also folks who think Paige has lost her edge ought to reflect on this if Dawn does indeed focus defensive attention on her. Dawn at least must think she poses a threat even if she doesn’t take 20+ shots/game.

 

[GoUconn7961]

Well, now that all the preliminary games have been played, it is time for the most consequential game of the regular season. This is the last chance for the Huskies to get a signature win before the tournament. If the Gamecocks defeat UConn by a substantial margin of 15+ points, then it is likely that the Huskies will drop to a 3 seed. A close game with a loss by 5 points or less on the road will probably not hurt possible seeding. The team might retain its 2 seed, albeit as the 3rd of 4th ranked 2 seed. In the unlikely event of a victory, the Huskies will probably move to become one of the top two number 2 seeds with the remote possibility of becoming the weakest 1 seed, depending on how higher ranked teams play for the remaining games of the season and league tournaments.

We know that South Carolina, like LSU and Tennessee, has size and athleticism. Any chance for UConn depends on freeing up Paige for shots and her hitting them and a third player, in addition to Sarah Strong, being an offensive threat, whether the player is Fudd, Chen, or Shade. Paige has to take around 20 shots, shoot whenever she is open instead of passing, and must be able to both hit some 3s and get to the foul line. We know that the Gamecocks will focus on Bueckers and try to make certain that she doesn’t defeat them and they have the bodies to muzzle her. If the team does not get some offense from another guard, it will be a long and painful night. Instead of 20-25% from 3 point range as against ND, USC, and TN, the team must hit 40% as against St. John's. In addition, the team must get something from the post position and that means Jana El Alfy. We can hope that Aubrey Griffin will be able to give us a good 15-20 minutes, particularly since both Ice Brady and Morgan Chelli are injured. I find it difficult to believe that a small team can stay with South Carolina on the boards.

Against St. John’s last night, Strong was not an offensive threat, Fudd shot the lights out, and Paige did not take many shots. Azzi's performance will give the Gamecocks something to think about and we must hope that Sarah will rebound from her lack of offense in the last two games.

The Huskies will be a distinct underdog for the first time this season. Impossible, no, but a victory will be a true upset.

One thing they’ve always liked was being the underdog. I know Geno loves it. It eases expectations. I hope they’ve come to understand how to play in that type of hostile environment.

 

[maple]

I don't think beating SCar requires playing a perfect game, but I do think we need to fix the problems we had against USC, ND, and TN. We need to execute on both ends of the floor and have consistency in each quarter. I don't expect us to hit every basket but we should at least make most layups and wide open shots. We also need balanced scoring.

 

[yhun89]

Good analysis. A couple of things stand out for me in what you’ve said.

• SC plays a smaller team than it has since Boston arrived. This could change if Walker Dauda or Tac see any significant minutes. But this hasn’t happened much this season.
• That said, without Ice and Morgan Geno will have to play a smaller team than Dawn does. Jana towers over SC’s frontcourt player, but after her it’s just Jana and Aubrey.
• Your observation that SC is sure to key on Paige is certainly right, but given their overall team speed they probably won’t have to double team her much which is a huge advantage for them.
• Also folks who think Paige has lost her edge ought to reflect on this if Dawn does indeed focus defensive attention on her. Dawn at least must think she poses a threat even if she doesn’t take 20+ shots/game.

Dawn's said many times Paige doesn't take bad shots. They'll be all over her like white on rice, but with Azzi and Sarah on the court, Dawn will know better than to commit Coach Walz's mistake of underestimating Sarah or Azzi.

 

[Rowdy831]

Beating SC at their home is always a tall order and that won't be any different on Sunday. UConn certainly has the quality of players needed to win the game but like any game against a top team the stars will need to show up and the supporting cast will have to hold their own.

In order to win I think they will need extra minutes from Aubrey and Jana where they have an advantage and Azzi and Paige to hit their open shots. The defense will need to play hard and they will have to stay out of mismatches as much as possible. This will be a game that identifies who belongs and who doesn't and Geno will also have to be at his best to win.

 

[bantamlaker]

In the last 5 years UConn has played SCarolina 6 times, losing 5 of the 6. The one win was a 4 point win in OT in 2021. The losses include 18, 16, 15 and 18 point losses. SC rarely loses at home so a win would be a big upset. This team needs to go all out from the opening tip to the final buzzer and make this a competitive game. If that doesn’t happen it might be time to recognize that SC has become the premier program in women’s college basketball.

 

[oldude]

This is not the same type of SC team with dominant posts like Wilson, Boston & Cardoso. They have a couple of Bigs (Tac & Dauda) that don’t play much. As a result, SC lost games to UCLA & TX, two teams with size that outplayed them in the paint.

Unfortunately, the Huskies don’t have the kind of size to battle the Gamecocks in the paint like UCLA or TX. UConn will have to play ferocious defense for 40 minutes, take care of the ball and hit enough outside shots to stay in the game.

SC is deep and athletic and they play exceptional defense while crashing the boards in waves. It’s going to be a tough challenge for UConn on the road n Columbia.

 

[Bone Dog]

SC is deep and athletic and they play exceptional defense while crashing the boards in waves. It’s going to be a tough challenge for UConn on the road n Columbia.

This was ND's tactic against us. Liatu King in particular got a bunch of boards through last second crashes. I thought she should have been whistled on a couple of these crashes and that might have broken some of ND's momentum. But that's not likely at a road game in a very noisy arena.

 

[Tonyc]

Man oh man . Everybody talking about loosing this game. Yeah we lost the past few years and many of those games with a shelton lineup and yes SC had a dominate big and UConn didnt. Things have changed we now have Azzi and Griff. I expect a very competitive game. I hope our girls aint thinkin about losing. I hope theyre thinkin about winnin. What was in the past is in the past. We have the players. All we have to do is put the ball in the basket like we've been doin and keep SC from doin it more then us. We need to go into this game with a winning attitude.

 

[Longtime fan]

Well, now that all the preliminary games have been played, it is time for the most consequential game of the regular season. This is the last chance for the Huskies to get a signature win before the tournament. If the Gamecocks defeat UConn by a substantial margin of 15+ points, then it is likely that the Huskies will drop to a 3 seed. A close game with a loss by 5 points or less on the road will probably not hurt possible seeding. The team might retain its 2 seed, albeit as the 3rd of 4th ranked 2 seed. In the unlikely event of a victory, the Huskies will probably move to become one of the top two number 2 seeds with the remote possibility of becoming the weakest 1 seed, depending on how higher ranked teams play for the remaining games of the season and league tournaments.

We know that South Carolina, like LSU and Tennessee, has size and athleticism. Any chance for UConn depends on freeing up Paige for shots and her hitting them and a third player, in addition to Sarah Strong, being an offensive threat, whether the player is Fudd, Chen, or Shade. Paige has to take around 20 shots, shoot whenever she is open instead of passing, and must be able to both hit some 3s and get to the foul line. We know that the Gamecocks will focus on Bueckers and try to make certain that she doesn’t defeat them and they have the bodies to muzzle her. If the team does not get some offense from another guard, it will be a long and painful night. Instead of 20-25% from 3 point range as against ND, USC, and TN, the team must hit 40% as against St. John's. In addition, the team must get something from the post position and that means Jana El Alfy. We can hope that Aubrey Griffin will be able to give us a good 15-20 minutes, particularly since both Ice Brady and Morgan Chelli are injured. I find it difficult to believe that a small team can stay with South Carolina on the boards.

Against St. John’s last night, Strong was not an offensive threat, Fudd shot the lights out, and Paige did not take many shots. Azzi's performance will give the Gamecocks something to think about and we must hope that Sarah will rebound from her lack of offense in the last two games.

The Huskies will be a distinct underdog for the first time this season. Impossible, no, but a victory will be a true upset.

This game will show if UCONN has developed an of the " toughness" which Geno said teams must have to win championships. That means the critical three is made, not bounce off the rim. The foul shots are all made. A turnover is created at a critical moment, and bunnies are not missed ever. And there are no sloppy or ill advised passes which give the ball to the other team. And while we are all excited that AZZI hit her threes against St Johns, does anyone believe playing against St.Johns is indicative of anything? The SC game will show it all. And I think they have better, deeper talent.

 

[HuskyNan]

In the last 5 years UConn has played SCarolina 6 times, losing 5 of the 6. The one win was a 4 point win in OT in 2021. The losses include 18, 16, 15 and 18 point losses. SC rarely loses at home so a win would be a big upset. This team needs to go all out from the opening tip to the final buzzer and make this a competitive game. If that doesn’t happen it might be time to recognize that SC has become the premier program in women’s college basketball.

In 2023, Lou and the Huskies lost by 4 points. The was a questionable inbounds play where the So Carolina player handed the ball to a teammate, which should have been a turnover. However, it wasn’t called. I’m not saying the Huskies would have won the game if it were called but it was a point of discussion here.

Nika, Aaliyah, and Lou willed that team to be in a position to potentially win. If this year’s team can show that same fortitude, they have a chance

 

[uconnever]

I think we win this game. They are just defense and posts that aren’t even dominant. Make sure the few shooters they have don’t go off and stay out of foul trouble. We should out score them.

 

[packwrap]

I think we win this game. They are just defense and posts that aren’t even dominant. Make sure the few shooters they have don’t go off and stay out of foul trouble. We should out score them.

I also think we will win, but it's not so simple.

SC goes 10 deep and plays all, like Tenn. They lead the country in bench points at 41 per game!

A huge reason for that is their leading scorer, freshman Edwards, comes off the bench, as do their two best guards, Sophs Fulwiley and T Johnson. (Who were the top scorers in the '24 championship game v Iowa) Coach Dawn likes to start her upperclassmen.

The SC scheme is for the starters to get first shot at building a lead with post play and dribble drive. If that fails, in comes the bench with excellent 3 pt shooting, and their best post.

So they do now have both good shooters and a solid inside game.

To win we need to battle just to a draw in the post with Sarah, Jana and Aubrey (Azzie&Paige if foul trouble) and win at the perimeter with Kaitlyn/KK, Paige, Azzi and Ash.(Allie&Q if in a bind)

To achieve this both our frontcourt and backcourt need to play well and hit shots. Doesn't need to be perfect, but team shooting of 45/35/80 probably keeps us in the game. Better is of course better.

If we have the familiar problem of shooting poorly and turnovers vs top teams with good physical defense we will lose.

I think though, we will win from perimeter with good games from Paige, Azzi and 1 surprise, coupled with tough work inside from Sarah and Aubrey. Really looking forward to this classic!

 

[Bone Dog]

In 2023, Lou and the Huskies lost by 4 points. The was a questionable inbounds play where the So Carolina player handed the ball to a teammate, which should have been a turnover. However, it wasn’t called. I’m not saying the Huskies would have won the game if it were called but it was a point of discussion here.

The other problem in that game was a lot of 'freedom of movement' fouls against Lou. Geno complained about it during and after. Got him a T as well. But, of course, there's no telling what sort of difference any of it made to the outcome. All's I know is the Huskies played well enough to win that day, and it showed on the court. That they didn't win is uninteresting to me.

 

[Rb335]

I think a lot has to go right for UConn to win. Offensively, we need Paige to hit 3-4 shots in the first quarter. She has the ability to settle down the team, so her contributing early and often is important. Sarah needs to have a big game as well. I don’t doubt she will, she’s proven reliable in the bright lights. And Azzi needs to find a way to get open. Our best bet is to out shoot them, so you also need the other players like Shade and Chen to hit when they are open. Then we have to hope players like Bree Hall and Raven Johnson miss their looks, and that Fulwiley and Tessa Johnson have quieter outings. Those two can get hot and change the game. Essentially I think our path is to shoot really well and hope for some South Carolina misses.

Defensively I do think we can stack up size wise. We’ll need Aubrey and KK to play well to counter the athleticism of South Carolina. And of course, avoid foul trouble like against Tennessee.

 

[Zonepress]

Pls go back and listen to G A. Comments after
The tenn game
Tells us all we need to know/ the best players
Have to play better
If they do we’re in a close game the last 5 min
If they don’t SC wins easily

 

[tomcat]

I don't think UConn can win this game, but in order to do it, a few things have to go very right:
-- Paige and Azzi play up to potential
-- Not worried about Strong. She'll do her thing and look good doing it.
-- The above three stay out of foul trouble.
-- At least one other guard -- Chen, KK, or Shade -- has a good shooting night
-- Aubrey plays at an all-star level, and for more minutes than ever this year.

My pessimism is caused by the likelihood that not all of these things will go UConn's way. Unless SC has an off-day (not likely playing at home before a hyped-up crowd) if any one of the factors go south, it could be a really long day for the Huskies.

 

[bballnut90]

The good new for UCONN is I can't see this game will have any negative implications on seeding. The rest of WCBB seeded 8-16 seems like a hot mess right now, so even if UCONN gets blown out, I think they're locked in to the #7 overall seed. If they win, they may move up to #6 or potentially #5 depending on how USC/UCLA goes.

Matchup wise--I don't think this is a good matchup for UCONN. To have a chance they need to hit a lot of 3s which has been a struggle against good teams, and South Carolina is one of the better defensive 3pt teams in the country, holding opponents to 28.2% beyond the arc. SC also rebounds well and they block a lot of shots. Physically they're the most athletic team in the country too. How can UCONN win? If Paige can revert back to freshman form when she took over and dominated vs. South Carolina, UCONN has a shot. They also need a couple of Fudd/Shade/Strong to hit perimeter shots. I'd look for big minutes too from Arnold/Griffin, since their athleticism will be needed.

One tidbit worth noting--South Carolina has won 70 straight home games. The NCAA records for most consecutive home games won are below:

1. 99 games — Held by UConn, ended by St. John's
2. 98 games — Held by UConn, ended by Baylor.
3. 82 games — Held by Stanford, ended by UConn
4. 71 games — Held by South Carolina, active
5. 69 games — Held by Baylor, ended by UConn
6. 69 games — Held by UConn, ended by Duke
7. 69 games — Held by Tennessee, ended by UConn

One common theme is that UCONN has been involved in creating or ending every single streak. Maybe history will continue to repeat itself and they'll end South Carolina's at 71 on Sunday.

 

[AzzisBraids]

Here's the case for both: UConn leads the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio, while being Top 3 in assists and field goal percentage. Azzi Fudd is #4 in the nation in 3 point percentage at 47%, Bueckers is the least turnover prone superstar in the nation, and Sarah Strong is coming off some un-Sarah like games and has the mental surge of "Is that Joyce Edwards over there?" UConn will win if they can shoot a high FG% and make three point shots, keep turnovers low and combat the inside game with the 3 point arsenal from Fudd, Bueckers, Strong, Chen, Shade and KK.

South Carolina is #1 in bench points, #5 in blocks per game, and have a bevy of young stars. They will win if their defense game can disrupt UConn, their bench gets going and they own the paint.

 

[Bone Dog]

The pressure needn't be on Paige. Azzi could be the one to open the scoring and loosen up SC's defense. Or Kaitlyn. If Kaitlyn hits a three and then Azzi scores two quick buckets, I think Paige will find some open looks as a result. Or if Geno stations Sarah at the top of the arc and she hits a couple 3s, it would work wonders on the defense. I mean, is Kitts or Feagin going to guard her out there? Lol

There's lots of weighs it could start.

 

[cferraro04]

What I think could happen on Sunday:

The Good:

1. Paige will be very aggressive looking for her shot. She will be defended mightily. Paige will have a statement game.
2. Sarah Strong will be motivated by the presence of her high school competitor Joyce Edwards. It should be enough to pull her out of her recent slump.
3. Azzi will be looking to prove that her last game wasn't a fluke.
4. Aubrey will look to build on her last game and hopefully will be moderately successful.
5. UConn's defense will give South Carolina problems.
6. KK will emerge in this game and be able to run and defend with South Carolina's fast guards.

The Bad:

1. Joyce Edwards is a beast
2. Fulwiley is a big game player and she will show up for this one.
3. South Carolina hasn't shot the ball that well from three...watch them shoot the ball from 3 better than they shot it all year.
4. Cloe Kitts...the quiet assassin could awaken for this game.
5. Fast guards spell trouble for UConn...foul trouble is a possibility.

The Ugly:

1. Jana may not be ready for the big time yet and South Carolina exploits our weakness in the post.
2. South Carolina is still pissed over their loss to Texas and they view UConn as a quality win. They don't need any extra motivation because they already view the Huskies as a rivalry game.
3. UConn stars get into early foul trouble and are hampered on the defensive end as they are afraid to pick up additional fouls.
4. We go cold as a team from three-point and we have another abysmal three-point shooting game.
5. Pressure defense from South Carolina leads to excessive turnovers.

 

[WLT1717]

I will be looking to see whether (1) the refs call it tight, which would favor UCONN (but is unlikely given few refs stand up to Dawn), (2) Sarah regains her mojo, (3) UCONN can reasonably match SC on the boards, (4) Azzi manages to step up against a top 10/non-Big East opponent, and (5) KK plays more minutes than Kaitkyn.