UConn to B1G expansion scenario

[CL82]

"they are located directly in (not just kind in the vicinity of) the NYC and DC markets."

As is Connecticut, Frank. That's why we draw so well there. Less than RU to be sure, but still very well.

I don't think the B1g gives UConn a pass on the AAU. I just think UConn's metrics are much closer than you do. The University of Connecticut was ranked:

•#40 in the nation in awarded doctoral degrees - UConn is ranked higher than 26 of the 61 AAU members;​

•#49 in the nation for doctoral student enrollment - UConn is ranked higher than 23 of the 61 AAU members; and​

•#77 in the nation for research expenditures - UConn is ranked higher than 10 of the 61 AAU members.​

​

These are key metrics for approval and the numbers are trending up.

 

[tduconn]

I am thoroughly pleased and impressed with UConn's initiatives and emphasis in its academic and possible AAU resume'.

But we have a long way to go in that as well as athletics. Being a devil's advocate, taking all the positives mention by CL82 above, and removing our tinted glasses, UConn ranks, for two of the categories, in the lower third of the AAU memembers. Right now I don't see BIG speed dialing our phone.

 

[frankthetank]

"they are located directly in (not just kind in the vicinity of) the NYC and DC markets."

As is Connecticut, Frank. That's why we draw so well there. Less than RU to be sure, but still very well.

I don't think B1g gives UConn a pass on the AAU. I just think UConn's metrics are much closer than you do.

　

The University of Connecticut was ranked: ​

•#40 in the nation in awarded doctoral degrees - UConn is ranked higher than 26 of the 61 AAU members;​

•#49 in the nation for doctoral student enrollment - UConn is ranked higher than 23 of the 61 AAU members; and​

•#77 in the nation for research expenditures - UConn is ranked higher than 10 of the 61 AAU members.​

​

These are key metrics for approval and the numbers are trending up.

I certainly understand that part of the state of Connecticut is within the NYC market, but UConn itself isn't in that DMA (whereas Rutgers is in the NYC DMA and Maryland is about 12 miles from the White House). That's the distinction that I'm making (and yes, that matters to the Big Ten because the value proposition of both of those schools is as much as about bringing Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State directly into those particular markets as it is about Maryland and Rutgers themselves).

Those are all great academic metrics for UConn. On the objective data, UConn probably does meet much of the AAU criteria. It's just that AAU membership is akin to, well, conference realignment - all of the favorable objective data in the world may not mean anything if the organization itself doesn't have a desire to expand. UConn's biggest obstacle for both power conference realignment and AAU status is simply inertia. If you were to organize the top 60 athletic departments (with more weight given to football prowess) and the top 60 overall research institutions, UConn would be on both of those lists. That would mean that UConn would be both in a power conference and the AAU if you were to start those clubs from scratch today. There's no doubt in my mind about that. However, since there is entrenched membership in both the power conferences and AAU for historical reasons, UConn is on the outside looking in on both fronts. The problem is that UConn is likely closer to the bottom of both of those lists (let's say 50ish), so while UConn is "good enough" in a vacuum if you're starting an organization from scratch, they're not necessarily "good enough" for either the power conferences and AAU to proactively expand to include them in today's environment.

Now, I can certainly understand that's exactly why it would be frustrating to UConn fans. Objectively, UConn should meet the athletic and academic criteria to be in the elite organizations, but history and inertia are powerful forces that are locking them out. That's why "good enough" really isn't good enough going forward. You're going to have to blast your way through the relevant metrics in order to get these organizations to move. Look at how the Cincinnati AD is talking - he certainly isn't just sitting back and assuming that his school is "next in line" whenever the next wave of conference realignment occurs. UConn can't rest because the assumption that they were "next in line" for anything has turned out to be patently wrong.

 

[upstater]

UConn can't rest because the assumption that they were "next in line" for anything has turned out to be patently wrong.

In both this post and the last post, you are making assumptions about UConn's people and what they did. I don't think anyone knows. We do know that Uconn was pegged for that spot in the ACC until FSU threw a fit. And FSU has been throwing a lot of fits lately. They were negative on the addition of Cuse and Pitt football. Then they accused Tobacco Road of taking all the tier 3 football money while retaining tier 3 basketball money from themselves. They came out making eyes at the B12.

Do I believe UConn would be in the ACC were it not for FSU's stance? Yes.

 

[pj]

I disagree. The BTN is a vehicle to make a lot of money for sure, but the conference still makes more money (and will contribute to make more money when a new deal is signed in a couple of years) from its national first tier football contract. Football absolutely, positively matters. While that brings up the question about "Why did the Big Ten add Rutgers and Maryland if it's supposed to be about football?", the answers are (1) that expansion was allowed because choice #1 was the legit marquee football name of Nebraska (which is the antithesis of the East Coast), (2) New Jersey and Maryland produce the highest number of Division 1 football recruits of any two non-Sun Belt states that aren't already in the Big Ten footprint and (3) they are located directly in (not just kind in the vicinity of) the NYC and DC markets. The Big Ten could afford to go for a market-oriented expansion because (as many people have seem to have forgotten with all of the focus on the BTN) they arguably made the purest football move in all of conference realignment by adding small market Midwest-to-the-core Nebraska as step one.

The geographic proximity of Florida State would be an issue for the Big Ten if they didn't add anyone else - I'll grant you that. However, I'm sorry, but FSU blows away virtually all other schools outside of Texas (not just UConn) on any TV-based and football-based metric. FSU unambiguously delivers the entire state of Florida for TV purposes in a way that isn't possible in the Northeast, so the size of the Tallahassee is irrelevant. I can't tell you enough how different the mentality is there regarding college sports. You'll also find *individual* high schools in Florida that produce as many or more Division 1 football recruits as the entire state of Connecticut on an annual basis. Seriously. On a pure money and football basis, the only two schools that would provide more to the Big Ten would the University of Florida (obviously not leaving the SEC) or Texas. Any non-SEC/Texas candidate for the Big Ten isn't anywhere isn't close if you disregard geography.

Now, the reality is that geography still matters somewhat. When I hear the Big Ten talk about the "East Coast", though, what I really hear is "Mid-Atlantic" as opposed to "New York City" (which is what a lot of others assume). That points to Virginia and North Carolina. Those are the areas that a rapid number of Big Ten grads are moving to (more so than New England) and have a large pool of football recruits. Riddle me this: if the Big Ten would look past UConn's lack of AAU status, why wouldn't it also look past another school in a larger soon-to-be contiguous state with a fantastic football program and fan base: Virginia Tech? Think about what value they'd be bringing to the table if it proves to be impossible to pry away UVA from the ACC. I point them out because if you start thinking that the Big Ten is going to start overlooking AAU status and hope that UConn would be a beneficiary, you better understand the type of additonal competition that you're opening yourselves up to (because I honestly don't think UConn's leadership had any idea about what they were going up against with Louisville for the last spot in the ACC and that's a big reason why UConn is here today). Overconfidence will get you killed in conference realignment - expecting a conference like the Big Ten to deviate from the criteria that it has applied to every single school that it has added isn't realistic. The resume has to be *perfect* (not just "We are working on it" potential) when inertia is very much toward no further expansion at this time.

Rutgers and Maryland were great adds, I agree they had a lot going for them. But you are under-rating Connecticut which does similarly in many metrics. Almost 20 million people live within a 2 hour drive of Rentschler field; and apart from BC and UMass which have few fans there are no other FBS programs in the region. Once you realize that state boundaries are not as meaningful in the northeast as they are in the rest of the country -- UConn by the way has a regional preference program which offers reduced tuition to New England and New York students -- then maybe UConn's strong brand presence in Boston and NYC will be more understandable to you.

Football is a relatively new sport in Connecticut but it is growing fast. Connecticut is now producing 10 BCS level scholarship players a year, 16-20 FBS level, and the number grows almost every year. High school football is becoming more competitive. The move of UConn football to 1-A has greatly increased investment in football and Connecticut high school coaches are benefiting from clinics by UConn coaches.

Texas and Florida are tremendous football states, yes. But you also have to look at the competitive environment. With the influx of money into college athletics, many schools are upgrading. In Texas, TCU is now a BCS school, Houston and SMU want to be, Baylor and Texas Tech have made big investments in football, North Texas and other small state schools have moved to FBS, Texas A&M moved to the SEC, at every level the competition is increasing and the market is getting divided into smaller slices. Similarly in Florida -- USF and UCF are moving up and making big investments and could become B12 schools. So we are looking at 5 BCS schools sharing a state with 19 million people -- one that produces a lot of football talent, yes, but that every school in the country recruits. That's 4 million people per school -- the size of Connecticut, but without UConn's out-of-state reach into major population centers.

Based on football metrics, FSU is way ahead of UConn. But now that conferences are forming their own networks which need year-round inventory, and with poaching of the NCAA basketball tournament the next potential way for major conferences to increase revenue, basketball is becoming as important as football from both a branding and revenue perspective. Basketball has always been central to ESPN; it is becoming so the BTN and SEC network and Pac network. Also, markets become extremely important as they become opportunities for national brands like Michigan, Ohio State, Alabama, etc, to broaden their fan base into extended geographic regions. Visiting New England regularly, and appearing on New England cable TV, picks up many fans for Michigan. Markets are extremely important to the new conference networks. The B1G now has to start thinking like ESPN, and emphasizing basketball for the same reasons ESPN has always done so.

You mention AAU status and I agree that UConn must join the AAU before the B1G will extend an invite, unless UConn has been offered by another conference and the B1G is forced to decide. But it will happen. I don't know the timetable but the investments already funded will make UConn an AAU school within 5 years. It may happen quicker if UConn develops friendships in the AAU.

You do know that Virginia Tech is in Blacksburg, 270 miles from Washington DC and in close proximity to West Virginia, Tennessee, and Kentucky? How does it help B1G schools develop relationships with alumni in DC to play at a school a 5 hour drive away? Va Tech makes sense only as a stepping stone to the populous North Carolina - South Carolina corridor linking Raleigh-Durham-Greensboro-Winston-Salem-Charlotte-Spartanburg-Greensville; but then you need to poach the heart of the ACC, in which case UVa would be available. Va Tech is nowhere near the prize that UConn is. West Virginia might bring more than Va Tech.

You mention overconfidence. No one is overconfident. UConn has its warts and has to address them. They are working on it. The state under-invested in the university for a long time, thus the university's stature has lagged what its market supports. But now that the investments are being made, there will be a reversion over time to the level the market supports. That will raise up UConn and pull down schools like FSU and Texas which are facing growing competition.

 

[frankthetank]

In both this post and the last post, you are making assumptions about UConn's people and what they did. I don't think anyone knows. We do know that Uconn was pegged for that spot in the ACC until FSU threw a fit. And FSU has been throwing a lot of fits lately. They were negative on the addition of Cuse and Pitt football. Then they accused Tobacco Road of taking all the tier 3 football money while retaining tier 3 basketball money from themselves. They came out making eyes at the B12.

Do I believe UConn would be in the ACC were it not for FSU's stance? Yes.

I don't disagree with anything that you've said, although I'll say that the eyes at the paper tiger of the Big 12 weren't nearly as worrisome to the ACC as the eyes that FSU was making toward the Big Ten. (It was happening on the FSU side because their president was *very* interested in that move and FSU people in the know will tell you that. The Big Ten was the entity that wasn't fully reciprocating because they wanted other ACC schools, too, although Delany will always take a call when that type of potential moneymaker is involved.)

However, saying that a school isn't in the ACC because of FSU's stance is like saying that a school isn't in the Big 12 because of the Texas stance. Those are the schools that ultimately need to be appeased (as opposed to the Wake Forests or Baylors of the world). It's the same case with the Big Ten - if Michigan doesn't like a candidate, then that can certainly be a death knell (and you need to know that Michigan might be the most arrogant institution in big-time athletics on all fronts, even more so than Notre Dame and Texas, when it comes to both academic and football elitism). The point is that there are legit objective reasons as to why UConn was passed over even if you believe that there were subjective (or even emotional) reasons from schools like FSU and BC blocking UConn. A lot of UConn fans will focus on the latter, which is fine. However, UConn's leadership has to focus on the former. Believe me - there are schools in fast growing Sun Belt regions and markets that are investing heavily. UConn generally has an advantage with respect to academics that probably can't be eroded that quickly compared to other Gang of Five schools, but football investment is an entirely different matter.

Forget about the Big Ten and look at the most likely power conference to grow in the next decade: the Big 12. Due to their position in the middle of the country, it's the one conference that can expand in literally any geographic direction and it's at least plausible. Their lone addition of West Virginia in the east (who badly wants at least one Eastern partner) proves that. This means that you're not just competing with Cincinnati, though. You're competing with BYU with its national fan base that fills up stadiums everywhere. You're competing with UNLV that's about to build a spectacular football stadium in a fast-growing market that is starved for big-time sports and has managed to be one of the highest basketball revenue producers even though it has been in the MWC. You're competing with New Mexico, which is a flagship school in a growing state with a great basketball fan base but a tepid perception of its football program. (Sound familiar?) You're competing with Tulane. (Don't laugh. They might get blamed by some people for ultimately being the school that caused the Catholic 7 to split off, but this is an AAU school that's building a brand new on-campus stadium in a city that people love visiting and, most importantly, is one of the best football recruit producing states in the country outright and quite possibly the *very* best on a per capita basis.)

You may think that UConn is ahead of all of those schools, which might be true today. However, is that guaranteed to be the case in 5 or 10 years? You probably thought that you were ahead of Louisville and TCU 5 years ago. The margin of error is actually very thin for UConn here - you can't leave any reason for you to be left out to linger (most importantly, the perception that UConn is every bit of a noveau riche football school as, say, Boise State in a power conference world that only wants old money) because the rest of the world isn't static.

 

[B1GALUM]

Given there is a significant component of politics here, does UConn athletic director Warde Manual being a graduate of the University of Michigan where he played both football and track and field, have any leverage (understanding AAU would have to be achieved by UConn)?

 

[pj]

I certainly understand that part of the state of Connecticut is within the NYC market, but UConn itself isn't in that DMA (whereas Rutgers is in the NYC DMA and Maryland is about 12 miles from the White House). That's the distinction that I'm making (and yes, that matters to the Big Ten because the value proposition of both of those schools is as much as about bringing Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State directly into those particular markets as it is about Maryland and Rutgers themselves).

Mostly this is right but you're missing the significance of bringing 4 good-size DMAs directly (Hartford-New Haven, New London, Springfield MA, Fairfield Country) and 2 of the biggest in Boston and NYC. If people in NYC want to watch UConn as much as they want to watch Rutgers, it doesn't matter whether the campus is in the DMA or not -- the programs will be on TV and will be watched. I don't know if you've driven much in the northeast, but it's almost as easy to drive from NYC to East Hartford (100 miles) as to New Brunswick (50 miles). If it's important for Michigan alums to be able to see Michigan play in person, then having Rutgers alone lets NYC alums see Michigan once every 2 years; having UConn gives them that chance every year. Twice the exposure. And you reach Boston and New England alums too, which Rutgers doesn't.

If you were to organize the top 60 athletic departments (with more weight given to football prowess) and the top 60 overall research institutions, UConn would be on both of those lists. That would mean that UConn would be both in a power conference and the AAU if you were to start those clubs from scratch today. There's no doubt in my mind about that. However, since there is entrenched membership in both the power conferences and AAU for historical reasons, UConn is on the outside looking in on both fronts. The problem is that UConn is likely closer to the bottom of both of those lists (let's say 50ish), so while UConn is "good enough" in a vacuum if you're starting an organization from scratch, they're not necessarily "good enough" for either the power conferences and AAU to proactively expand to include them in today's environment.

This is true, but again I think those rankings assume a football-centric view. UConn has been playing at the #60-#70 program level in football, but in the B1G we'd be elevated to #40ish fairly quickly. We are a top-5 or so men's basketball program and the #1 women's basketball program (big up here). Most other major sports programs like baseball, soccer, track, etc are top 40 nationally and frequently nationally ranked. Hockey is being elevated. If I'm right that basketball is emerging as equally or nearly as significant as football, and if it is recognized that UConn will advance in football once it is in a major league, then you have to project us as a top-30 athletics institution once we are in the B1G.

You may think that UConn is ahead of all of those schools, which might be true today. However, is that guaranteed to be the case in 5 or 10 years? You probably thought that you were ahead of Louisville and TCU 5 years ago. The margin of error is actually very thin for UConn here - you can't leave any reason for you to be left out to linger (most importantly, the perception that UConn is every bit of a noveau riche football school as, say, Boise State in a power conference world that only wants old money) because the rest of the world isn't static.

This gets back to my point about competing programs in the south losing value due to rising competition. The major investments so many schools are making in football nationally is increasing the competition for all schools. In fact there is less competition in the northeast. Markets and audience will still be important, and as the schools you name fragment southern markets ever more finely, UConn will continue to be the premier sports brand in the northeast, just because there are no other large public school players aside from Rutgers, and the private schools (BC and Cuse) are weak competitors with limited fanbases. It may sound odd, but the 7-state New York / New England region with 35 million people is the only remaining virgin territory with growth potential for college athletics in the country. When networks and leagues look for markets where the audience can be grown, they will come to Connecticut. It is UConn's responsibility not to fail on other metrics.

 

[pj]

Given there is a significant component of politics here, does UConn athletic director Warde Manual being a graduate of the University of Michigan where he played both football and track and field, have any leverage (understanding AAU would have to be achieved by UConn)?

I think it makes the point that UConn wants to be in the B1G. And some B1G leaders have said that wanting to be part of the B1G is a criterion for them. I think it helps but I doubt it is a major factor. I hope Warde has good relations with everyone in the B1G.

 

[The Viking]

Frank, if you were the UConn President right now, what would you do that UConn isn't currently doing to make ourselves more appealing to the B1G?

 

[noeynox]

To piggy back on Franks last post., UCONN invested heavily in the football stadium and facilities and I believe there was a sense among the UConn leadership and a segment of the fan base that believed "enough" had been done to ensure that UCONN wouldn't be left behind when the landscape shifted. They we're wrong. We have been relegated to second tier status while every single other school that we played against in our inaugural Big East season has had their number called. I've felt for years that UCONN REALLY dropped the ball by not marketing BCS football full throttle from day one. It was almost like "we've built it" now they'll come. It was a wasted opportunity. They should have worked hard as hell to build up a ferverous, passion toward football. I wonder if there was real fear on stepping on important basketball toes at the time if they pumped football to the fullest.

Now the problem going forward is that we will no longer have all the best and shiniest bells and whistles. Its an arms race, but how much more could we invest in on that front and in what? The obvious answer is stadium expansion. We are in a precarious position.

 

[frankthetank]

Rutgers and Maryland were great adds, I agree they had a lot going for them. But you are under-rating Connecticut which does similarly in many metrics. Almost 20 million people live within a 2 hour drive of Rentschler field; and apart from BC and UMass which have few fans there are no other FBS programs in the region. Once you realize that state boundaries are not as meaningful in the northeast as they are in the rest of the country -- UConn by the way has a regional preference program which offers reduced tuition to New England and New York students -- then maybe UConn's strong brand presence in Boston and NYC will be more understandable to you.

Football is a relatively new sport in Connecticut but it is growing fast. Connecticut is now producing 10 BCS level scholarship players a year, 16-20 FBS level, and the number grows almost every year. High school football is becoming more competitive. The move of UConn football to 1-A has greatly increased investment in football and Connecticut high school coaches are benefiting from clinics by UConn coaches.

Texas and Florida are tremendous football states, yes. But you also have to look at the competitive environment. With the influx of money into college athletics, many schools are upgrading. In Texas, TCU is now a BCS school, Houston and SMU want to be, Baylor and Texas Tech have made big investments in football, North Texas and other small state schools have moved to FBS, Texas A&M moved to the SEC, at every level the competition is increasing and the market is getting divided into smaller slices. Similarly in Florida -- USF and UCF are moving up and making big investments and could become B12 schools. So we are looking at 5 BCS schools sharing a state with 19 million people -- one that produces a lot of football talent, yes, but that every school in the country recruits. That's 4 million people per school -- the size of Connecticut, but without UConn's out-of-state reach into major population centers.

Based on football metrics, FSU is way ahead of UConn. But now that conferences are forming their own networks which need year-round inventory, and with poaching of the NCAA basketball tournament the next potential way for major conferences to increase revenue, basketball is becoming as important as football from both a branding and revenue perspective. Basketball has always been central to ESPN; it is becoming so the BTN and SEC network and Pac network. Also, markets become extremely important as they become opportunities for national brands like Michigan, Ohio State, Alabama, etc, to broaden their fan base into extended geographic regions. Visiting New England regularly, and appearing on New England cable TV, picks up many fans for Michigan. Markets are extremely important to the new conference networks. The B1G now has to start thinking like ESPN, and emphasizing basketball for the same reasons ESPN has always done so.

You mention AAU status and I agree that UConn must join the AAU before the B1G will extend an invite, unless UConn has been offered by another conference and the B1G is forced to decide. But it will happen. I don't know the timetable but the investments already funded will make UConn an AAU school within 5 years. It may happen quicker if UConn develops friendships in the AAU.

You do know that Virginia Tech is in Blacksburg, 270 miles from Washington DC and in close proximity to West Virginia, Tennessee, and Kentucky? How does it help B1G schools develop relationships with alumni in DC to play at a school a 5 hour drive away? Va Tech makes sense only as a stepping stone to the populous North Carolina - South Carolina corridor linking Raleigh-Durham-Greensboro-Winston-Salem-Charlotte-Spartanburg-Greensville; but then you need to poach the heart of the ACC, in which case UVa would be available. Va Tech is nowhere near the prize that UConn is. West Virginia might bring more than Va Tech.

You mention overconfidence. No one is overconfident. UConn has its warts and has to address them. They are working on it. The state under-invested in the university for a long time, thus the university's stature has lagged what its market supports. But now that the investments are being made, there will be a reversion over time to the level the market supports. That will raise up UConn and pull down schools like FSU and Texas which are facing growing competition.

I think those are all plausible arguments that UConn is making (and leaders should try to be making). However, when I say "overconfidence", it's the thought that people like me are supposedly underrating UConn. I don't think that I'm underrating UConn at all. I've seen enough data in studying and writing about conference realignment over the past four years that I think a lot of people here are vastly underestimating how much more interest there is in college sports in essentially every area of the country outside of the NYC-to-Boston corridor even when there's more competition on paper in places like Texas and Florida (and believe me, UCF and USF aren't supplanting Florida, FSU and Miami no matter how much money they might pour in). The interest in UConn is good for a college relative to other schools located in the Northeast, but is it the type of penetration that would force cable carriers to carry the BTN? There's a colorable argument, but there's overwhelmingly still a big-time doubt there. That doubt isn't there with schools like UNC and FSU (regardless of in-state competition) - people need to understand that those schools are akin to the Yankees and Giants in the NYC market in their respective markets (not merely colleges) and get treated as such in terms of TV power. It's an entirely different mentality.

I'd also VERY much disagree about Virginia Tech - that's a legit football brand name (not necessarily at the Nebraska level, but clearly in the next tier) in a football recruit-heavy region that, as evidenced by the games that they have played in Daniel Snyder's behemoth outside of DC, can get traction on the Northern Virginia side of the DC market while delivering the rest of the state. They're also solid in academics - they might be slightly behind UConn in terms of undergrad rankings, but it's a very strong engineering and hard science school that does well in grad school metrics (and the Big Ten is much more inclined toward those types of schools than the liberal arts-focused institutions). That's an "East Coast" expansion that adds a large population base and actually improves football (whereas most other East Coast expansion does a lot for population but detracts from the football side of the equation, and believe me that matters no matter what people say about academics and markets). Sleeping on them would be extremely foolish if you think that the Big Ten would ever relax its AAU requirement at all. That's what I mean by overconfidence - if you legitimately think that VT is nowhere near the prize that UConn is and, even further, that WVU could bring more than them, then you're going to get blindsided again.

Putting all of that aside, like I've said, if you could do a snake conference draft of schools capped at 65 schools to be in power conferences, UConn would make it in. However, that's not how it works. You're battling inertia at a macro conference realignment level and a lack of FBS football history at a micro individual school level. Those factors can't be simply shoved aside - they're *major* factors here. That doesn't mean that there isn't hope. I think there is some hope with the Big 12 and that's where UConn's lobbying efforts need to be focused (meaning making a case that WVU makes UConn geographically palatable and that the brand names of the Big 12 can get exposure in the Northeast). It's just the Big Ten specifically where I'm not seeing it happening - UConn has too many exceptions to what the Big Ten's general rule when the conference hasn't had to many *any* exceptions in its expansion choices.

 

[frankthetank]

Frank, if you were the UConn President right now, what would you do that UConn isn't currently doing to make ourselves more appealing to the B1G?

The first thing that I would do is not really think about the Big Ten specifically. That's going to require AAU membership at a minimum and a bunch of outside factors that UConn would need to fall into place (e.g. another financially viable school to join the Big Ten with UConn even if the B1G considered UConn itself to be financially viable). Neither of those things may happen at any point in time soon. If they do, then that's great, but I'm assuming that most people here don't wait 20 years in the AAC if it takes that long for all of that to occur.

Second, and I've mentioned this already, is lobby the Big 12 (or maybe more importantly, Deloss Dodds at Texas) as much as possible. That's the one conference that actually might give out a couple of lifelines within the next 10 years. It's not ideal, but I still think most of you would still trade places with WVU in a heartbeat if it meant getting out of the AAC. Convince them why WVU plus UConn (and, while you don't want to prop up a competitor too much, maybe Cincinnati) would form an eastern contingent that would provide better overall demographics for the Big 12 outside of the state of Texas with exposure in places like NYC/New England. Show how adding UConn would actually unlock the value that WVU could have to the Big 12 (which is limited as a result of being a lone geographic outlier). (This is the argument that Rutgers made to the Big Ten, where it would unlock the value that Penn State had on the East Coast for the conference.)

There's going to be a big-time geographic bias against UConn from other Big 12 schools, so it's going to have be a very compelling financial case that not just relies upon UConn's individual value, but what WVU is worth when paired up with UConn (and maybe Cincinnati). It's a tough case, but I honestly see it being more of a viable option than trying to lobby either the Big Ten or ACC for the next decade.

 

[Fishy]

How can we be overconfident when we have folks who will spill 4,000 words a day on telling us why we're lacking?

 

[frankthetank]

How can we be overconfident when we have folks who will spill 4,000 words a day on telling us why we're lacking?

Just giving my perspective since I've been following conference realignment quite closely for the past decade. You can feel free to disagree.

 

[Fishy]

I don't necessarily agree or disagree, but am bemused with the dogged determination with which our shortcomings are served to us.

I think we should take up a collection and fly you to UConn for a weekend.

 

[frankthetank]

I don't necessarily agree or disagree, but am bemused with the dogged determination with which our shortcomings are served to us.

I think we should take up a collection and fly you to UConn for a weekend.

I guess I think about UConn a bit these days because I *do* think you guys got screwed in conference realignment more than any school other than possibly Cincinnati. (USF was given a gift of Big East membership in 2003 simply due to location.) So, the "Why did that happen?" is what I focus upon, and then I try to separate what's can actually be changed versus what are factors that are out of the school's control. I just don't want you get screwed again in the event that the Big 12 suddenly has a desire to expand.

 

[Rumrunner]

Distilling Frank's tome down to a few words, the northeast doesn't care about college sports like the rest of the country, UConn isn't AAU, if the Big Ten were to expand it would be outside of the northeast, and the school must be AAU.

Perfectly logical, except I can't get out of my mind an image of a cartoon character perched on Frank's shoulder, whispering "pssstt... Rutgers and Nebraska, frank, what about Rutgers and Nebraska?"

How can we be overconfident when we have folks who will spill 4,000 words a day on telling us why we're lacking?

 

[The Viking]

Frank, just out of curiosity, if UConn were to somehow get AAU status, and become one of the top 2 football programs in the AAC over the next 5 years, would you be OK as a B1G fan with UConn getting admitted provided we have a partner?

Or do you want the B1G to stay away from us at all costs? Just talking on a personal level here, as a fan.

 

[RS9999X]

There's going to be a big-time geographic bias against UConn from other Big 12 schools, so it's going to have be a very compelling financial case that not just relies upon UConn's individual value, but what WVU is worth when paired up with UConn (and maybe Cincinnati). It's a tough case, but I honestly see it being more of a viable option than trying to lobby either the Big Ten or ACC for the next decade.

I think the partnership with SNY has to continue and UConn needs to look at neutral sites like Yankee Stadium for one football game a year. It's not easy for UConn to become a presence in Southern CT and NYC but it needs to. The UConn Stamford expansion is part of the equation to raise visibility in the NYC region. Continuing to book Rutgers and Saint John's is another as well as NYC tourneys.


People here are myopic sometimes. Losing regional coverage in the NYT for the BE tourney and against St John's and Rutgers--even Seton Hall is not a positive. The nice thing for the NYC newspapers is those head-to-head matchups used to cover their broad suburban readership in CT and Jersey as well as NYC.

UConn in NYC is going to be as well covered as Boston College in NYC when this is done--meaning not at all. Completely ignored. That was the other piece of Gene Defillipo's message: He doesn't have to read in the Boston Globe about UConn any more or have the Globe cover UConn as a 'regional' and appeal to CT subscribers in the Enfield to Storrs to Pomfret area.. Those days are done between the decline of newspapers and realignment fracturing the market. Even the NYC papers cover Fairfield County less and less in the natural course of downsizing.

The same applies to Boston and NYC TV highlights. UConn beating out Rutgers for the BE title gets coverage in all 3 sports (Yes, the women when the thing with Vivian was getting hot). Now? Beating Tulane for the AAC title might make it in the lttle tiny print under the racing results and never on TV.

 

[frankthetank]

Frank, just out of curiosity, if UConn were to somehow get AAU status, and become one of the top 2 football programs in the AAC over the next 5 years, would you be OK as a B1G fan with UConn getting admitted provided we have a partner?

Or do you want the B1G to stay away from us at all costs? Just talking on a personal level here, as a fan.

On personal level, I wouldn't say that the Big Ten should stay away from UConn at all costs. However, as a fan, I'm not a proponent of expansion in and of itself (with the irony being that I write a blog that has largely been focused on expansion for the past few years). I didn't really want the Big Ten to expand beyond 12 teams, let alone 14 or 16. The Nebraska addition was great. I understood the Rutgers and Maryland additions from a financial perspective, but I can't say that I'm excited to see them rolling into town in lieu of Michigan and Ohio State as a result of the new divisional setup as a pure fan.

If UConn comes in with legit football brand as a partner (I would say an Oklahoma-level program at a minimum disregarding any AAU status), then I'd be happy with it as a fan. If it's UConn plus another school that's simply there to provide households with the requisite academic prestige (let's say UVA), then that's much less appealing. I don't think any further expansion that doesn't include at least one football power would make any of the fans happy (and to be sure, those football powers do drive revenue beyond just the TV market angle, so that plays into the financial piece).

It's funny because I spent most of my time 3 years ago trying to get people to understand how much the BTN and off-the-field factors would matter for Big Ten expansion compared to on-the-field football, yet these days I largely have to pull back and remind people that just because there's an emphasis on revenue and TV markets doesn't mean that football isn't still a massive factor (as the football brand is what ultimately allows all of that revenue to be generated in the first place). Once again, it's not necessarily just the football program on the field, but access to recruits is pretty big, too (as that's the bloodline for maintaining football prowess). Maryland and Rutgers happen to be located in places where such recruiting access is actually excellent (at least as far as Northern states go), so those are still seen as football-related moves beyond their TV markets even if their actual football programs aren't so hot.

 

[RS9999X]

Philly is 90 miles from NYC. Hartford is 120. I expect UConn, UPenn, Drexel, and Yale to get about the same coverage after the SNY deal blows up. Best coverage in NYC for UConn? In the yearly expansion post-mortems lookng at Rutgers, SJU, SHU and UConn in retrospect and they name the winners and THE LOSER. We can start writing those articles now. We know the ending.

 

[frankthetank]

I think the partnership with SNY has to continue and UConn needs to look at neutral sites like Yankee Stadium for one football game a year. It's not easy for UConn to become a presence in Southern CT and NYC but it needs to. The UConn Stamford expansion is part of the equation to raise visibility in the NYC region. Continuing to book Rutgers and Saint John's is another as well as NYC tourneys.


People here are myopic sometimes. Losing regional coverage in the NYT for the BE tourney and against St John's and Rutgers--even Seton Hall is not a positive. The nice thing for the NYC newspapers is those head-to-head matchups used to cover their broad suburban readership in CT and Jersey as well as NYC.

UConn in NYC is going to be as well covered as Boston College in NYC when this is done--meaning not at all. Completely ignored. That was the other piece of Gene Defillipo's message: He doesn't have to read in the Boston Globe about UConn any more or have the Globe cover UConn as a 'regional' and appeal to CT subscribers in the Enfield to Storrs to Pomfret area.. Those days are done between the decline of newspapers and realignment fracturing the market. Even the NYC papers cover Fairfield County less and less in the natural course of downsizing.

The same applies to Boston and NYC TV highlights. UConn beating out Rutgers for the BE title gets coverage in all 3 sports (Yes, the women when the thing with Vivian was getting hot). Now? Beating Tulane for the AAC title might make it in the lttle tiny print under the racing results and never on TV.

Out of curiosity (as I honestly don't know) - does UConn actually have any assigned beat writers with the major NY dailies or the Boston Globe? That is, are they printing something more than AP wire stories for UConn results? I subscribe to the Sunday New York Times and their online site, but I know that their approach to sports coverage is quite different than the NYC tabloids. That's kind of my general rule of thumb as to whether a school "delivers" a market these days, as most papers won't spend the money on assigning a beat writer unless it's perceived to be critical to do so. It's an indicator (albeit not empirical proof) of how invested a particular market is with a college (or pro, for that matter) sports team. For example, both the Chicago Tribune and Sun-Times still assign beat writers for Illinois, Northwestern and Notre Dame (along with having a general Big Ten beat), but will only run AP wire stories for the other local colleges. The Indianapolis Star has beat writers for Indiana, Purdue and Butler, but *not* for Notre Dame (believe it or not). The St. Louis Post-Dispatch has beat writers for Missouri, Illinois and SLU.

 

[upstater]

I don't disagree with anything that you've said, although I'll say that the eyes at the paper tiger of the Big 12 weren't nearly as worrisome to the ACC as the eyes that FSU was making toward the Big Ten. (It was happening on the FSU side because their president was *very* interested in that move and FSU people in the know will tell you that. The Big Ten was the entity that wasn't fully reciprocating because they wanted other ACC schools, too, although Delany will always take a call when that type of potential moneymaker is involved.)

However, saying that a school isn't in the ACC because of FSU's stance is like saying that a school isn't in the Big 12 because of the Texas stance. Those are the schools that ultimately need to be appeased (as opposed to the Wake Forests or Baylors of the world). It's the same case with the Big Ten - if Michigan doesn't like a candidate, then that can certainly be a death knell (and you need to know that Michigan might be the most arrogant institution in big-time athletics on all fronts, even more so than Notre Dame and Texas, when it comes to both academic and football elitism). The point is that there are legit objective reasons as to why UConn was passed over even if you believe that there were subjective (or even emotional) reasons from schools like FSU and BC blocking UConn. A lot of UConn fans will focus on the latter, which is fine. However, UConn's leadership has to focus on the former. Believe me - there are schools in fast growing Sun Belt regions and markets that are investing heavily. UConn generally has an advantage with respect to academics that probably can't be eroded that quickly compared to other Gang of Five schools, but football investment is an entirely different matter.

Forget about the Big Ten and look at the most likely power conference to grow in the next decade: the Big 12. Due to their position in the middle of the country, it's the one conference that can expand in literally any geographic direction and it's at least plausible. Their lone addition of West Virginia in the east (who badly wants at least one Eastern partner) proves that. This means that you're not just competing with Cincinnati, though. You're competing with BYU with its national fan base that fills up stadiums everywhere. You're competing with UNLV that's about to build a spectacular football stadium in a fast-growing market that is starved for big-time sports and has managed to be one of the highest basketball revenue producers even though it has been in the MWC. You're competing with New Mexico, which is a flagship school in a growing state with a great basketball fan base but a tepid perception of its football program. (Sound familiar?) You're competing with Tulane. (Don't laugh. They might get blamed by some people for ultimately being the school that caused the Catholic 7 to split off, but this is an AAU school that's building a brand new on-campus stadium in a city that people love visiting and, most importantly, is one of the best football recruit producing states in the country outright and quite possibly the *very* best on a per capita basis.)

You may think that UConn is ahead of all of those schools, which might be true today. However, is that guaranteed to be the case in 5 or 10 years? You probably thought that you were ahead of Louisville and TCU 5 years ago. The margin of error is actually very thin for UConn here - you can't leave any reason for you to be left out to linger (most importantly, the perception that UConn is every bit of a noveau riche football school as, say, Boise State in a power conference world that only wants old money) because the rest of the world isn't static.

I don't even blame FSU. They wanted better football. They got it with Louisville (only I think that's fool's gold, in the end). I understand that.

Most of our bitching refers to the second round of expansion with Pitt and Cuse. Internally, many UConn fans were told that UConn was slated to be added then months before it happened. And the news stories about BC confirmed it later on. That was the moment when a less than stellar football school might have been added.

I totally understand on Michigan. People here know I hold no love for them, even though I lived in Ann Arbor for bit. I have a degree from PSU--Michigan actually opposed their entry! I also sympathize with Purdue and Illinois fans. For every royal screwing PSU received in games against Michigan, the refs would reciprocate by screwing over other schools in games against PSU. One is a fluke. Twice is coincidence. Thirty eight times in a row is bias (I'm not going to use the "c" word). These are the reasons I prefer the ACC to the B1G. More natural competition for UConn among Cuse, Pitt, BC and the like (though Rutgers is perhaps the best comparison).

As for UConn football, no one thought they were ahead of anyone 5 years ago. The team has been part of a D1 conference for less than a decade. We were here a decade ago. If you polled us back then and asked, would we take:

1. A winning record against Cuse, Pitt and Louisville...
2. A BCS Bowl game (the Fiesta)
3. Bowl wins including against South Carolina down south
4. Blowout victories over B1G and ACC schools like Indiana and Virginia.
5. A win at Notre Dame.
6. Three different seasons with 3 or 4 NFL draft choices (including 4 this year, and 4 first day picks a couple years ago (Butler, Beatty, Brown and Brown) with one pro bowler (Branch) taken on the second day...
7. 2 BE championships...

I assure you, we would have signed up instantly.

All this accomplished in less than 10 years, but it was still not at the level of a TCU. It was above the level of a Louisville, but we went backward with Pasqualoni while they left Kragthorpe behind. Bad timing.

As for the rest, I can't sympathize with your point about New Mexico. They really don't move the dial for basketball. They and UConn are on another planet when it comes to bball.

 

[CL82]

I certainly understand that part of the state of Connecticut is within the NYC market, but UConn itself isn't in that DMA (whereas Rutgers is in the NYC DMA and Maryland is about 12 miles from the White House). That's the distinction that I'm making (and yes, that matters to the Big Ten because the value proposition of both of those schools is as much as about bringing Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State directly into those particular markets as it is about Maryland and Rutgers themselves).

Those are all great academic metrics for UConn. On the objective data, UConn probably does meet much of the AAU criteria. It's just that AAU membership is akin to, well, conference realignment - all of the favorable objective data in the world may not mean anything if the organization itself doesn't have a desire to expand. UConn's biggest obstacle for both power conference realignment and AAU status is simply inertia. If you were to organize the top 60 athletic departments (with more weight given to football prowess) and the top 60 overall research institutions, UConn would be on both of those lists. That would mean that UConn would be both in a power conference and the AAU if you were to start those clubs from scratch today. There's no doubt in my mind about that. However, since there is entrenched membership in both the power conferences and AAU for historical reasons, UConn is on the outside looking in on both fronts. The problem is that UConn is likely closer to the bottom of both of those lists (let's say 50ish), so while UConn is "good enough" in a vacuum if you're starting an organization from scratch, they're not necessarily "good enough" for either the power conferences and AAU to proactively expand to include them in today's environment.

Now, I can certainly understand that's exactly why it would be frustrating to UConn fans. Objectively, UConn should meet the athletic and academic criteria to be in the elite organizations, but history and inertia are powerful forces that are locking them out. That's why "good enough" really isn't good enough going forward. You're going to have to blast your way through the relevant metrics in order to get these organizations to move. Look at how the Cincinnati AD is talking - he certainly isn't just sitting back and assuming that his school is "next in line" whenever the next wave of conference realignment occurs. UConn can't rest because the assumption that they were "next in line" for anything has turned out to be patently wrong.

The fact that NJ is split between the NYC and Philly DMAs is an anomaly, one that I suggest would not motivate a knowledgeable 'consumer' and I think we can be confident that Delaney has much more refined data than you or I have access to. What matters is total households and there RU delivers due to the population density in northern NJ. Again, I am confident that the analysis to invite RU to the B1G was based upon that level of detail. Connecticut brings both Fairfield county and the Hartford/New Haven DMAs.

That is a lot of households. I sure that is basis of the Delaney's (supposed) review of the impact of Connecticut as a member institution. The DMA is an outdated concept based upon broadcast distances.

The information I listed regarding UConn's academic metric compared to existing AAU schools shows that UConn is already a 'comparable' institution. Now keep in mind, Frank that those numbers are before the new UConn Tech Park an $132 million dollar R&D facility designed for research in advanced manufacturing, materials, cyber-infrastructure, pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, with another $40 million in advanced equipment approved by the legislature. It is also before the new Eminent Faculty Program which will add an additional 25 to 30 new faculty and staff members.


It is also before the GE Center of Excellence which is $.7 million dollar partnership that will feature:

$1.5M Professorships

$2.7M Graduate Fellowships

$3.3M Research Grants/Equipment

Advanced Man, Materials & Contacts

Composite Molding

Materials by Design

Magnetics, Arc Interruption & Thermal Performance

Materials Joining Process

Advanced Modeling for Thermal Management

...to be continued.