UConn stats....Nika vs Hailey Van Lith...

[RSHERMVIKES]

i don't agree with that. in basketball clearly there are many factors affecting offense other than scoring.

lots of fans don't accept that -- i'd like to know their reasoning. i'm sure maybe agree with you.

maybe some simply don't realize it's a team game. and more often than not players who love to score can hurt the team

PacoSwede- - - The perfect example of ypur post is Morrow last year with DePaul!
She insisted on taking 3's even though she had a low % of making them!
She wanted to dominate her team when they couldf have done better if the ball was spread around!

 

[DeepThreat]

The lack of respect for Nika's offensive capabilities, by some on this board, is puzzling. So here are some stats to answer the question, who is a better offensive player, Nika or Hailey Van Lith?

1. Games - Each has played 3 years of college basketball. Hailey has been in 101 games, all as a starter. Nika has appeared in 92 games, 70 as a starter.
2. 3 point shooting - Van Lith has taken 451 threes, made 33.7% of those shots. Nika has tried 251 shots from outside the arc, made 34.3%. Nika is a better 3 point shooter.
3. 2 point shots - Van Lith has taken 882 two pt shots and made 46.5% of them. Nika tried 174 two pt shots and 50.6% went in. Nika is a better two point shooter.
4. Assists - Nika has 433 career assists vs Hailey's total of 257. Nika actually has more assists (433) than field goal attempts (425). Nika is better at assisting.
5. Points - Van Lith has scored 1,533 points in her 3 years on 1,333 shots attempts & 326 free throw tries. Her NISE (Naples Index of Scoring Efficiency) is .924 (1,533 pts divided by 1659 scoring chances). Nika has a NISE of .961 (495 points divided by 515 scoring chances). Nika has a better NISE.
6. Free throws - Hailey Van Lith gets fouled way more often, 346 foul shots vs 90 for Nika. She also makes a better %, 85% vs 67.8% for Nika. Hailey Van Lith is a better free throw shooter.
7. Turnovers - Hailey has 260 turnovers (vs 257 assists) and Nika has 222 turnovers (vs 433 assists). Nika has a much better assist/turnover ratio.

So, statistically, Nika is a better offensive player than Hailey Van Lith. Wow, who knew??
Thoughts?
Go Huskies..!!

Lies, Damn lies and Statistics. I'm not defending Hailey Van Lith vs Nika but how can you be certain that Nika's stats would hold up against Hailey Van Lith's sample size? I don't think you can. There are too many intangible, unmeasurable factors that players face to allow for a statistical comparison. If you are happy with Nika's contributions that should be good enough.

 

[jdote33]

I personally think Hailey Van Lith is a much better player than Nika and I am a big fan of Nika. But this thread has been an interesting read. I think if Hailey Van Lith was on the team the past three years they'd have two Natty's at least. I must have a serious blind spot though cuz most on this board don't seem that high on Hailey Van Lith. But all I've seen her do is win, and produce in big moments.

 

[TCC Kid]

Lies, Damn lies and Statistics. I'm not defending Hailey Van Lith vs Nika but how can you be certain that Nika's stats would hold up against Hailey Van Lith's sample size? I don't think you can. There are too many intangible, unmeasurable factors that players face to allow for a statistical comparison. If you are happy with Nika's contributions that should be good enough.

Fun, damn fun, and more fun--is David. Lies---certainly NOT. Yes, there are immeasurable quantities in EVERYTHING. That's why Humans all are complex.
Further this IS A UCONN, not LSU, WCBB site, keep that in mind when reading here. Bias if it came from me would be more than likely--I'm a UConn fan and a NIKA fan. I like talented Women BB players, even on Mulkey's teams. If you want BIAS and HYPE--please read anything and everything about Kim and her teams.

Those that dissected Davids presentation--go for it, write a detailed numeric post with fairness and humor, try it --it isn't easy.

 

[hoophuskee]

I personally think Hailey Van Lith is a much better player than Nika and I am a big fan of Nika. But this thread has been an interesting read. I think if Hailey Van Lith was on the team the past three years they'd have two Natty's at least. I must have a serious blind spot though cuz most on this board don't seem that high on Hailey Van Lith. But all I've seen her do is win, and produce in big moments.

The OP did a wink. So, that's how I took it.

I'm with you --

but I believe some valid sentiment is that if UCONN did not have injuries and as a result would not have needed scoring, then Nika is damn valuable. Allen Iverson is an all-time great. I dont believe however he fits in well with certain other great scorers. And not sure how great Chris Mullin or Reggie Miller are vs some other more defensive-minded glue-type players even if they are "better." So, just seeing the stats without getting too wrapped up in player vs player -it isn't important --but it is -- interesting; a glue player vs a scorer.

 

[hoophuskee]

With all due respect, this is simply selective reasoning. Better point guard? Sure! Nika is certainly that! However, I couldn't help but notice the statistic you carefully excluded from your post. Hailey Van Lith 19.7 ppg- Nika 7.1 ppg. If one person shoots 5 threes and makes three and another shoots 500 threes and makes 295, that doesn’t make the first one a better offensive player!
Even putting aside the selective presentation of their respective stats, the whole idea of comparing these two is essentially meaningless. Better to wait until the end of this season! Hailey Van Lith has never played the point while thats the only position Nika has played. Reportedly, Hailey Van Lith will be playing the point this season (I have my doubts as to how long and how successful that experiment will be) and so, at the end of this season you will be able to offer a more coherent comparison.
Let me be clear, I think Van Lith is waaay overrated and I have serious doubts about Mulkey’s attempt to make her into a point guard but if you were to take a national poll on the best offensive player between Hailey Van Lith and Nika, let’s just say it wouldn’t be close! Conversely, if you take a poll on which is the best point guard well, that would not be close either. However, neither poll would be fair! They don’t play the same position and have never been asked to do the same things on their respective teams.
I’m pretty sure, especially if she (Hailey Van Lith) actually plays the point all year, that her scoring will not be anywhere near 20 points per game this season. I’d still bet though, that she will score substantially more per game than Nika. That’s not to say that she’s better than Nika but rather, that she is simply a more offensive minded player! I must say though, I am extremely interested to see if she (Hailey Van Lith) can actually become a viable point guard! I will also say that I certainly wouldn’t trade Nika for Hailey Van Lith even if she’s not as good offensively!

Great post. I'll just add though that the stats are intersting in that they are similar in that one was a pg and the other a scorer. - Two very different ways they used them - yet numbers show they are close even though the numbers really don't reflect what is really happening. So as you say - maybe this indirectly shows Hailey Van Lith is overrated a bit as a scorer even though a superior player to Nika. - So maybe this is why Hailey Van Lith recognizes/recognized that her best chance at pro ball is to try to be a pg (a pg that can score) rather than be an alpha scorer?

 

[Forego]

It is difficult to separate offensive performance from defensive performance and defensive assignments. When your primary assignment for game is to guard the opponent’s best shooter, like Clark or Van Lith, it usually ends up detracting from your offensive performance and that of your opponent’s. Steals and blocked shots only tell part of the story. I have never seen a cumulative statistic for number of shots altered, turnovers caused, not letting them be open to receive a pass or just not giving the opponent a clear look at the hoop. Nika stays glued to the opponent’s face. (Clark’s words, not mine.). I don’t know if Van Lith’s primary assignment was guard the opponent’s best shooter. But it appears that her assignment was usually to be that of the primary shooter. The offensive statistical data provided is interesting but does not tell the full story.

 

[Bald Husky]

I will make this short and sweet. Van Lith and Nika are completely different basketball players, playing on teams that have completely different offensive schemes. Some posters are on Nika for not shooting enough, but I guarantee that during the season these same people will be getting on her FOR shooting when she is on the floor with Paige and Azzi. "Why is she shooting when she has the two best shooters in the country with her on the floor". She will be dammed if she does and dammed if she doesn't by some BYers. To me, if she does exactly this year what she did last year I will be very happy. She makes this team go, with or without Paige, although her presence will complete what will be a potent line-up that will go far in our NC quest.

 

[diggerfoot]

I, like many here, love Nika’s effort and moxi - but to say she always makes the right decisions as an elite PG doesn’t pass the eye test. She picks up her dribble, gets trapped near the sideline and has bad turnovers that has made some here on the board raise questions for the last few years. Now, would I take her over Hailey Van Lith, absolutely.

And yet Muhl’s A/T ratio was 2.24 for the season (thanks to @Cedar for the correction), which compares favorably to all other point guards that year, including Clark. At the beginning of the year, against good competition but before the fatiguing year progressed, Muhl was flirting with a 4.0 A/T rate.

I recall distinctly, with the eye test, how Bird would make turnovers, usually against lesser opponents. I suspect if Bueckers was her contemporary for making comparisons a few of the same Muhl critics would be finding fault with Bird’s turnovers. Fatigue contributes to both bad decisions and bad execution.

The right decision can be made, but then not executed well. My eye test suggests it was waning execution, not decision making. Same for Bird when she got sloppy against lesser opponents. Bottom line is that Muhl manifests her lifelong training as a point guard in knowing when to pass and to whom, or when her taking the shot is the best option for the team. No one in the country has demonstrated better decision making except Bueckers, which means anyone else in the country would be drawing even more fire from the BY critics for their turnovers if she was one of ours.

 

[#12in21]

In several past threads I have noted the evolution of Nika over her time at Uconn and most recently her impact on the offensive end in relation to her teammates this past season. It's no secret, I have always been a Nika fan since her arrival at Uconn, but it really is undeniable that the Nika that is entering her senior season, as is the Aaliyah, has grown leaps and bounds on her (their) impact for the team's success. I don't think the same can be said for Hailey.

Nika's evolution is tailor made for her role this upcoming season. Which should be a surprise to no Uconn fan as that is who she is, she has always cited her focus as being, to do whatever she needs to do, to help her team win, and over her three seasons here she has done just that. She never has chased individual accolades and has always credited her team with any that have come her way. Going into last season, many posters expressed concern as to Nika's propensity to foul to much and not score enough, expecting that she would not be able to stay on the floor and when she was her team would be playing four against five, because her defender would play off her. What actually happened is that Nika set a Uconn record for minutes/game and as many others have mentioned, her defenders playing off her was not an issue because of the very real threat of her ability to make great passes for assists and when left open she took the shot or drove to the basket. Hailey remains the player she came in as as a freshman, and at LSU is being asked to transform into a PG, we'll have to see how that works out.

I can't believe anyone would rather see Hailey replacing Nika on this year's Uconn roster. Hailey needs the ball in her hands and has historically looked to score first, Nika looks to push pace and get the ball to a teammate as quickly as possible and only takes a shot when she sees no better option. With Paige, Azzi and Aaliyah (all better scoring options than Hailey I would argue) I can't see anyone wanting to swap Hailey for Nika (even if Paige moved over to point and Hailey played her natural position). Then there is the defensive end where there can be no argument as to Nika's greater value. So instead of looking at a statistical comparison of these two, It is very clear to me that Nika is a way more valuable player for Uconn than Hailey could possibly be.

 

[The CDR-Ret]

What would Van Lith have scored with an Aaliyah, Lou, and Azzi on her team? I guess we’ll find out this coming season.

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From these stats, the Coaches's focus shows up in the "Points for vs. points against", and the point guard is the driving force to enact that focus. UCONN's 75.9 PF : 58.8 PA reflects Nika's tenacity on defense and her assists record, vs. Louisville's 73.25 PF : 64.24 PA. The FG % for & FG % against shows the ability of each team to play team defense & ability to gain open shots as a team. UCONN again shows the attitude of TEAM defense and TEAM offense: 49.4% FG % for : 34.8% FG % against vs. 45.0% for : 40.2% against for Louisville.

I would use these statistics to say my favorite point guard from last year, Nika, is better than Van Lith as a TEAM player. I feel that way regardless of the statistic(s) involved.... and am unashamed to say the same of any of the UCONN women vs. anyone on any other team in a one vs. one comparison, as the upcoming year is a NC winning year.

Bless the Huskies with full health all year!!!

 

[Zarathustra]

I personally think Hailey Van Lith is a much better player than Nika and I am a big fan of Nika. But this thread has been an interesting read. I think if Hailey Van Lith was on the team the past three years they'd have two Natty's at least. I must have a serious blind spot though cuz most on this board don't seem that high on Hailey Van Lith. But all I've seen her do is win, and produce in big moments.

Hailey Van Lith was on the receiving end of the Paige Buecker's inbound pass when
the USA beat Australia in that "barn burner" O.T. game in Thailand. Does anyone remembers
Rhyne Howard taking the elbow to the face at the end of regulation ( foul and possession to the USA )
to allow the USA women to get the miracle tying score (Hailey Van Lith from the "Kid's" assist ). Paige was
the MVP of that particular FIBA tournament!
Another example of a " win... and production in big moments "!!!

 

[The CDR-Ret]

Nika plays at UConn, Hailey Van Lith at Louisville! Nuff said! I’m not a huge Hailey Van Lith fan but your comparison is completely unfair.

As Bill Parsell's once said: "You are what your record says you are..." Statistics are historically used to "prove" a particular viewpoint, which by nature is a measure of bias.

I am not a fan of UCONN women's basketball to be biased toward the opponents, whether they were at Louisville or now at LSU...

Fairness has been over-rated so much that even the outfield corner markers are called "foul poles" not "fair poles" even though when the baseball hits them above the fence level, it is called a homerun in both baseball and softball.

 

[HopJim]

While its difficult to compare a shoot first guard to a pass first point guard, perhaps the most school neutral comparison would be which player coaches would take if given the chance. The early draft projections give us some idea of the answer.

 

[HuskyNan]

While its difficult to compare a shoot first guard to a pass first point guard, perhaps the most school neutral comparison would be which player coaches would take if given the chance. The early draft projections give us some idea of the answer.

Van Lith was the shooting guard, no? Mykasa Robinson was the point? I genuinely don’t know.

 

[huskeynut]

Thank you David. Excellent post.

I guess the Nika debate on the Boneyard will continue for one more year. Nika is the Rodney Dangerfield of UConn Women's Basketball.

Two time Defensive Player of the Year in the Big East. Season UConn record for assists. The floor general of the team. The heart and soul of the team.

Her game has improved every year. To me, she passes the eye test as the point guard of the team. I would take Nika over Van Lith every time.

 

[Jumper33]

Van Lith was the shooting guard, no? Mykasa Robinson was the point? I genuinely don’t know.

Yeah, Robinson was the PG, although the responsibilities were sometimes shared. I think Chrislyn Carr occasionally brought up the ball up too.

Van Lith’s main role was not as a distributor, hence the negative assist to turnover ratio. When Van Lith got the ball, she was always looking to shoot it. If there was an obvious teammate open and no good look at the basket, she would pass it. But she was always hunting her shot first and foremost.

Robinson didn’t shoot all that much. Without checking I would guess she had a similar amount of shot attempts to Nika. In fact she is probably the one we should be comparing Nika to, given that she was a pass-first point guard known for her relentless hounding defense too.

 

[Waquoit]

The lack of respect for Nika's offensive capabilities, by some on this board, is puzzling.

Nothing puzzling about it. Nika has yet to show she can score against the varsity. In 6 Sweet 16 or higher games, she's only scored 14 points total, a feeble 2.4 PPG. Hailey Van Lith has scored over 20 points in the SS or better on 4 separate occasions. I think the OP is hating on Van Lith.

 

[DeepThreat]

Fun, damn fun, and more fun--is David. Lies---certainly NOT. Yes, there are immeasurable quantities in EVERYTHING. That's why Humans all are complex.
Further this IS A UCONN, not LSU, WCBB site, keep that in mind when reading here. Bias if it came from me would be more than likely--I'm a UConn fan and a NIKA fan. I like talented Women BB players, even on Mulkey's teams. If you want BIAS and HYPE--please read anything and everything about Kim and her teams.

Those that dissected Davids presentation--go for it, write a detailed numeric post with fairness and humor, try it --it isn't easy.

Are you not familiar with Mark Twain's quote? I too am a lifelong UConn fan and am certainly aware of this site's fan base. I am also not suggesting that the original poster's analysis was in any way untruthful. I was simply pointing out that statistics and statistical comparisons can be misleading. I took stats as an undergrad and again as a grad student. If there's one thing I learned it's that sample sizes matter. Think of it this way; an MLB team starts the season 30-10. Everyone says they're on course to win 120 games. Does that mean they will do so? Almost certainly not. No team in history has ever done so. So take that concept and expand Nika's sample to be comparable to Hailey Van Lith's. Do those numbers hold true? And most importantly is that enough to say one player is better than the other?

As I said in closing, if you're happy with Nika's performance and contributions, then that is all that matters.

 

[hjoerring]

Respect to you as well… I very clearly included points scored & games played. In addition, I contrasted those points with how many shots were taken to score those points. Points per game doesn’t analyze how many shots were taken, how many were made, what kind of shots or any efficiency measurement. Hailey Van Lith is a very good player, but a volume shooter. Her points per game will exceed most guards if she takes the same number of shots again this season. Of course, LSU will need to play with more than one ball if their new lineup shoots like last season.

Agree trading Nika would be undesirable…

These stats are great at the team level; however, across teams their usefulness is questionable. Nika's game works well for Uconn but, would I say the same for her running LV? Perhaps. Van Lith can create her shots and you have to defend her carefully-- not sure that Nika is up there. Or, she hasn't needed to put up points. But you are right- she doesn't get all the credits for her importance to the team. Some here still questioned her starting and for how long.

 

[Cuango]

As Bill Parsell's once said: "You are what your record says you are..." Statistics are historically used to "prove" a particular viewpoint, which by nature is a measure of bias.

I am not a fan of UCONN women's basketball to be biased toward the opponents, whether they were at Louisville or now at LSU...

Fairness has been over-rated so much that even the outfield corner markers are called "foul poles" not "fair poles" even though when the baseball hits them above the fence level, it is called a homerun in both baseball and softball.

?

 

[Galaxyshooter]

The lack of respect for Nika's offensive capabilities, by some on this board, is puzzling. So here are some stats to answer the question, who is a better offensive player, Nika or Hailey Van Lith?

1. Games - Each has played 3 years of college basketball. Hailey has been in 101 games, all as a starter. Nika has appeared in 92 games, 70 as a starter.
2. 3 point shooting - Van Lith has taken 451 threes, made 33.7% of those shots. Nika has tried 251 shots from outside the arc, made 34.3%. Nika is a better 3 point shooter.
3. 2 point shots - Van Lith has taken 882 two pt shots and made 46.5% of them. Nika tried 174 two pt shots and 50.6% went in. Nika is a better two point shooter.
4. Assists - Nika has 433 career assists vs Hailey's total of 257. Nika actually has more assists (433) than field goal attempts (425). Nika is better at assisting.
5. Points - Van Lith has scored 1,533 points in her 3 years on 1,333 shots attempts & 326 free throw tries. Her NISE (Naples Index of Scoring Efficiency) is .924 (1,533 pts divided by 1659 scoring chances). Nika has a NISE of .961 (495 points divided by 515 scoring chances). Nika has a better NISE.
6. Free throws - Hailey Van Lith gets fouled way more often, 346 foul shots vs 90 for Nika. She also makes a better %, 85% vs 67.8% for Nika. Hailey Van Lith is a better free throw shooter.
7. Turnovers - Hailey has 260 turnovers (vs 257 assists) and Nika has 222 turnovers (vs 433 assists). Nika has a much better assist/turnover ratio.

So, statistically, Nika is a better offensive player than Hailey Van Lith. Wow, who knew??
Thoughts?
Go Huskies..!!

you can use stats to prove the Earth is flat meaning numbers can be manipulated.. The only thing Nka is better at than Haley is Defense and assist.. would you want Haley or Nika taking a game-winning 3 or 2-point shot as for that NISE reference it's the same formula used to explain the world is flat as for turnovers Haley is a shooting guard who traditionally always have more turnovers than your point guard which Nika is simply out Noka is not better than Haley and I'm a Nika fan

 

[ballerfan]

David, I appreciate your attempt to get the Nika haters to think.

I personally decided it wasn't worth my time.

Now when I come across a hater I just put them on "Ignore".

Frees up a lot of time to read and enjoy posting from UConn WBB fans.

I love Nika. I defended her two years ago when there were so many people here criticizing her. I was very happy to see the big jump she made last year, and I think she can get even better this year. I want her to be the starting PG. I like who she is as a person.

Still, because I haven’t been 100 percent in agreement with the most enthusiastic Nika fans, I have been accused of being anti-Nika by some people. The reaction has been almost cult like. And as a result, I have been « ignored » by at least two people.

Maybe it’s great to ignore people, to not read viewpoints contrary to one’s own. The tactic, sadly, works. I am now contributing less, and I no longer read the BY every day.

 

[Inthepaint]

I will make this short and sweet. Van Lith and Nika are completely different basketball players, playing on teams that have completely different offensive schemes. Some posters are on Nika for not shooting enough, but I guarantee that during the season these same people will be getting on her FOR shooting when she is on the floor with Paige and Azzi. "Why is she shooting when she has the two best shooters in the country with her on the floor". She will be dammed if she does and dammed if she doesn't by some BYers. To me, if she does exactly this year what she did last year I will be very happy. She makes this team go, with or without Paige, although her presence will complete what will be a potent line-up that will go far in our NC quest.

Not sure if we want Nika to do exactly like she did last year. IMHO, she took Paige’s absence a bit too personally, trying too hard to fill in the empty space.
I believe Geno made some references to “We need Nika to just be Nika and do what she does best”.
Sure, the aggressive distribution and expediting led to lots of assists and lovely video clips.
And there’s no denying that with the injuries to Azzi and Caroline, there WAS a legitimate need for Nika to step up her own game and try to elevate the game of those around her ( maybe the sharpest arrow in Paige’s quiver).
But as her minutes started mounting up, and everybody seemed to be sleepwalking with fatigue, her effort seemed to be counterproductive.
Trying too hard to provide leadership AND do the critical Nika stuff led to mental & physical mistakes.
With Paige returning, a healthy Azzi, Caroline, Aubrey, and some inspired minutes from Ines & the 3 new guards, I believe and hope we will see a better, wiser Nika.
Able to combine the energy, aggressiveness and downright orneriness with some of the hard lessons she had to learn last season.
I’ve posted previously that it’s unlikely that ANYONE (except maybe Geno) will be happier to see # 5 back in business.
Soon we’ll be able to not only see if Paige will return to the level of play we expect, but also how Nika can return to being “The Girl in You Face”

 

[Bone Dog]

I’m going to try to place all this confusion about Nika into context.

I think this year will belong to the three seniors: Paige Nika and Aaliyah. It’s their team to steer to greatness. I’m not sure how they’ll use their season, whether to create a launch pad for Aubrey’s entry into the draft, or even to launch Aaliyah and Nika too.

And I certainly don’t know what Paige will do, though I suspect she’ll stick around for Azzi’s senior year just to see if the two of them can win two in a row. If Ice and Ayanna and Qadence and Amari show her something this year, Paige may really want to lead them to an NC too, especially if Jana looks extra strong next summer and Caroline has left her injuries behind. That would be a fitting final chapter to the Paige and Azzi show at Storrs.

All these young women have something to prove about themselves and Storrs may be the best place to show what they are capable of.