UConn stats.... How much scoring graduated..??

[DavidinNaples]

Last season, UConn scored 3,269 points in 40 games. That comes out to an average of 81.7 points per game. That average was the highest per game number since the 2020-21 season. Between graduation & transfer, the Huskies lost players who scored 1,146 points. (Paige = 756, Kaitlyn = 277, Aubrey = 70 and Qadence = 43) That leaves the players that scored 65% of UConn's points or 2,123 total, plus 2 transfers and 3 freshman.

Here are the career scoring totals from players on this year's roster:
1. Serah = 1,494 points (Wisconsin)
2. Azzi = 1,014 points
3. Ashlynn = 727 points
4. Sarah = 657 points
5. KK = 565 points
6. Caroline = 500 points
7. Ice = 289 points
8. Kayleigh = 207 (USC)
9. Jana = 200 points
10. Allie = 92 points
11. Yana = 65 points
12. Morgan = 61 points
13-15. Blanca, Kelis and Gandy = 0 points

Paige's team leading 756 points will need to be replaced, but the Huskies return 5 of the next 6 top scorers. And, UConn adds Serah Williams, Kayleigh Heckel and this season's wildcard, Blanca Quinonez. This year's version of the Huskies is very talented, the roster is quite deep and the expectations are for #13.
Thoughts?
Go Huskies..!!

 

[Bone Dog]

Maybe this sort of question is easier to address as points per minute than career or season scoring totals. For example, Azzi scored 462 in 34 games, or 13.6/game, but also 20.5 per 40 mins. By contrast, Paige scored 756 in 38 games and 26.5 per 40 mins. Sarah scored 657 in 40 games and 23.0 per 40 mins. Ash scored 308 in 40 games and 13.8 per 40 mins. KK scored 218 in 40 games and 10.8 per 40. And including Serah and Kayleigh from other programs, Serah scored 577 in 30 games and 24 per 40 mins. Kayleigh scored 207 in 34 games but 14.4 per forty mins. There’s not enough relevant data to say much about what Allie or Morgan or Blanca or Carol or Ayanna might bring to the season. But we might be able to extrapolate from the per 40 numbers to guess what the central 6 might be able to contribute.

 

[Vowelguy]

I always maintain that WCBB stats need to be restricted to games of note. The number of blowouts against meaningless opponents completely skew the results otherwise.

 

[Bone Dog]

I always maintain that WCBB stats need to be restricted to games of note. The number of blowouts against meaningless opponents completely skew the results otherwise.

I think this has to be strictly true. If the data set were large enough, this distinction would diminish in importance. But a single season will never be a large enough data set. However, as a shorthand, the errors that accrue from skewing by blowouts will not be so great as to entirely obscure basic trends, and most of us don’t have the time to filter sufficiently to eliminate the problem.

 

[EricLA]

I always love Dave's stats. Having said that...

Paige was a legit NPOY candidate and was just the ROY in the WNBA. No way you replace "her", but with ALL the elite talent we added, and with Jana, Sarah, Allie, and Morgan becoming sophomores (what's the best thing about freshmen? They become sophomores!)... this team is loaded. Add in Serah and Kayleigh, not to mention Blanca (and Kelis and Gandy)... and the players coming back from injuries (Ayanna and Caroline), YIKES.

One thing to point out - I had a chance to watch Blanca for about a half of a game in her Italian pro league. OMG. She was like a snake coiled and ready to strike, but was sort of held back by her own play, and the play if the team - the Italian team did NOT play elite defense, no real motion offense, nor did they put in the kind of effort that will be required at UConn (including constant motion offense), but this girl has ALL the tools to be great.

Anyway watching her play - the way she moves, shoots, dribbles, can layup with both hands, defends and uses her length... I'm back on the "Blanca will start" bandwagon. I just think she's going to be that good. Cannot wait to see what Geno and the staff do with her!!

 

[Vowelguy]

I think this has to be strictly true. If the data set were large enough, this distinction would diminish in importance. But a single season will never be a large enough data set.

No matter how big the dataset, it's going to look like you only need to replace 30 mpg for Paige (or Stewie or Maya or ...). But in reality that was <25 mpg in blowouts and 40 mpg in the big ones.

Yes it can be time consuming to strip out the blowouts so I understand why folks dont. But in some cases the non-parsed data can be meaningless imho.

 

[msf22b]

With the greatest respect David
I think the real question is:
How much new scoring has arrived?
We'll know soon enough.

 

[Bone Dog]

With the greatest respect David
I think the real question is:
How much new scoring has arrived?
We'll know soon enough.

Not just new scoring. Also expanded shot opportunities for existing players. Last year the team averaged 62.8 FGA 52 of which were by the rotation players. And 19.4 of those were taken up by Paige and Kaitlyn. Last season Serah got 15.1 FGA per game. Her FG% was 49.3 which is respectable but not stellar for a post player. I’d be surprised if between them KK and Ash and Kayleigh don’t soak up Kaitlyn’s 5.3 FGA, which only leaves Paige’s 14.1. Serah may not get all of them, but I’m also expecting Sarah and Azzi to up their shot attempts too. And Sarah had the highest FG% on the team.

The gist is I’m not worried about production next season. I’m only curious about who it will come from. Watching it develop is gonna be fun.

 

[Bone Dog]

I had a chance to watch Blanca for about a half of a game in her Italian pro league. OMG. She was like a snake coiled and ready to strike

Amen to that! And hallelujah!

 

[PacoSwede]

Not just new scoring. Also expanded shot opportunities for existing players. Last year the team averaged ....

The gist is I’m not worried about production next season. I’m only curious about who it will come from. Watching it develop is gonna be fun.

the only thing i am seriously worried about -- excluding a return of the injury plague that's running wild due to the rugby-ification of the sport in the sorry attempt to grab more TV gold -- is trouble with this new team's chemistry. that could destroy all our dreamlike speculations.

it seems unlikely from what we know about the kids on this roster, but realistically, we're ignorant of what's going on behind the scenes. all 15 kids have to buy in.

 

[Vowelguy]

the only thing i am seriously worried about -- excluding a return of the injury plague that's running wild due to the rugby-ification of the sport in the sorry attempt to grab more TV gold -- is trouble with this new team's chemistry. that could destroy all our dreamlike speculations.

it seems unlikely from what we know about the kids on this roster, but realistically, we're ignorant of what's going on behind the scenes. all 15 kids have to buy in.

And the dynamics on a team where Paige was the alpha, in every aspect. Not easily replaced.

 

[diggerfoot]

During the span of our “down years,” we first were playing a supremely talented Collier out of position, so that we were vulnerable to teams with elite bigs. After that came the covid and injury plagued seasons, with the injuries occurring throughout the season, ever changing the roster and chemistry. I suspect those years contributed to why we have a full roster now, when previously Auriemma preferred a smaller roster where greater repetitions and chemistry could be developed.

My point in relation to the OP is that we can never know how the parts relate or might change during the season. The chemistry might be great, I believe it will be, even though increased roster sizes never contributes to greater chemistry. On the other hand, our tremendous depth means that Player A may average 12 ppg for 15 games before injury, while Player B then averages 14 ppg for 20 games, making the cumulative add up to a misleadingly large number.

 

[Bone Dog]

And the dynamics on a team where Paige was the alpha, in every aspect. Not easily replaced.

Can a team full of betas still dominate — this seems to be the question you’re posing. And in this light Paige was an interesting sort of alpha in being the chief bucket-getter as well as the dominant personality. Geno’s coached teams where those two functions weren’t combined. The first two Stewie-led teams were like that. On the other hand, Diana’s teams were exactly like Paige’s teams, with an alpha bucket-getter. Maya's teams too.

As for playing stars out of position and being vulnerable to opposing bigs, that certainly describes the last two seasons. Paige as power forward, Aaliyah as center constantly struggled with this, but at the same time Geno was working on the small ball lineups that could eventually solve the problem. In the last NC run, he finally had the right personnel (and enough of them) to make the formula work. Geno lost the magic alpha, added a workhorse big, and a wild card in Blanca. This and the potential recovery of a cadre of big fast wings makes us both one of the biggest teams in the country and one of the quickest. This is a combination we haven’t seen before. Uncharted territory.

 

[ucmiami2]

It is all interesting speculation, and you can slice and dice the points scored numbers a lot of different ways, but each new year is really its own entity, even when you have stars returning and few changes to roster - just as the opponents also change.

This year is one of major changes with Paige the catalyst for most of the past years gone and a large influx of new players (3 freshmen, 2 transfers), and injury returns (2.5 counting Cheli) making 50% of the team, plus 2.5 sophomores who were very limited in what they contributed (Cheli again.) Everyone except Azzi'z and Sarah's role will change dramatically with the possible exception of Shade's unless she ends up starting.

With the size of the roster and the 'expected' depth, MOV should improve because the bench should keep the score turning over better than it has in a long time and play better defense in the 50% of the games that they get the fourth quarter to themselves. It wouldn't be a surprise to me if no one averages 30 minutes/game for the year, but for 3-5 players to average 30+ minutes a game in the competitive games, and of course those games will define the season.

I also wouldn't be surprised if the core returning players Azzi, Sarah, Ash, KK, and Ice combine for the same range in their points from last year and the 'Paige' points come from the rest of the roster. And that may be true in actual PPG and in PP40. Uconn's style of play under Geno is not conducive to any one person being a dominant scorer - not with Diana, not with Maya, not with Stewie, and not with Paige - it is about getting good open shots in the right places on the floor for the personnel on the floor at any particular moment and I do not see that changing. Last year Paige and Sarah our scoring stars represented just over 44% of our total points, add in our third scorer and it goes to 61% - barely above 2/5ths and 3/5ths of the scoring in a five person team.

 

[JRRRJ]

I think this has to be strictly true. If the data set were large enough, this distinction would diminish in importance. But a single season will never be a large enough data set. However, as a shorthand, the errors that accrue from skewing by blowouts will not be so great as to entirely obscure basic trends, and most of us don’t have the time to filter sufficiently to eliminate the problem.

The problem becomes very much smaller if you make use of the Per 40 Pivot Stats spreadsheets which you can find at jackromanowicz.com. Going back to 2018-19, you can easily select which games go into the Per-40 calculations by using the dropdown lists at the top of the Per-40 tab. You can select by Opponent. Date, Venue and starter status. You can also combine selection criteria like Starters in Gampel, or Big East teams Away .

 

[JRRRJ]

No matter how big the dataset, it's going to look like you only need to replace 30 mpg for Paige (or Stewie or Maya or ...). But in reality that was <25 mpg in blowouts and 40 mpg in the big ones.

Yes it can be time consuming to strip out the blowouts so I understand why folks dont. But in some cases the non-parsed data can be meaningless imho.

See my response to Bone Dog above.