UConn stats.... How much scoring graduated..??

[DavidinNaples]

Last season, UConn scored 3,269 points in 40 games. That comes out to an average of 81.7 points per game. That average was the highest per game number since the 2020-21 season. Between graduation & transfer, the Huskies lost players who scored 1,146 points. (Paige = 756, Kaitlyn = 277, Aubrey = 70 and Qadence = 43) That leaves the players that scored 65% of UConn's points or 2,123 total, plus 2 transfers and 3 freshman.

Here are the career scoring totals from players on this year's roster:
1. Serah = 1,494 points (Wisconsin)
2. Azzi = 1,014 points
3. Ashlynn = 727 points
4. Sarah = 657 points
5. KK = 565 points
6. Caroline = 500 points
7. Ice = 289 points
8. Kayleigh = 207 (USC)
9. Jana = 200 points
10. Allie = 92 points
11. Yana = 65 points
12. Morgan = 61 points
13-15. Blanca, Kelis and Gandy = 0 points

Paige's team leading 756 points will need to be replaced, but the Huskies return 5 of the next 6 top scorers. And, UConn adds Serah Williams, Kayleigh Heckel and this season's wildcard, Blanca Quinonez. This year's version of the Huskies is very talented, the roster is quite deep and the expectations are for #13.
Thoughts?
Go Huskies..!!

 

[Bone Dog]

Maybe this sort of question is easier to address as points per minute than career or season scoring totals. For example, Azzi scored 462 in 34 games, or 13.6/game, but also 20.5 per 40 mins. By contrast, Paige scored 756 in 38 games and 26.5 per 40 mins. Sarah scored 657 in 40 games and 23.0 per 40 mins. Ash scored 308 in 40 games and 13.8 per 40 mins. KK scored 218 in 40 games and 10.8 per 40. And including Serah and Kayleigh from other programs, Serah scored 577 in 30 games and 24 per 40 mins. Kayleigh scored 207 in 34 games but 14.4 per forty mins. There’s not enough relevant data to say much about what Allie or Morgan or Blanca or Carol or Ayanna might bring to the season. But we might be able to extrapolate from the per 40 numbers to guess what the central 6 might be able to contribute.

 

[Vowelguy]

I always maintain that WCBB stats need to be restricted to games of note. The number of blowouts against meaningless opponents completely skew the results otherwise.

 

[Bone Dog]

I always maintain that WCBB stats need to be restricted to games of note. The number of blowouts against meaningless opponents completely skew the results otherwise.

I think this has to be strictly true. If the data set were large enough, this distinction would diminish in importance. But a single season will never be a large enough data set. However, as a shorthand, the errors that accrue from skewing by blowouts will not be so great as to entirely obscure basic trends, and most of us don’t have the time to filter sufficiently to eliminate the problem.

 

[EricLA]

I always love Dave's stats. Having said that...

Paige was a legit NPOY candidate and was just the ROY in the WNBA. No way you replace "her", but with ALL the elite talent we added, and with Jana, Sarah, Allie, and Morgan becoming sophomores (what's the best thing about freshmen? They become sophomores!)... this team is loaded. Add in Serah and Kayleigh, not to mention Blanca (and Kelis and Gandy)... and the players coming back from injuries (Ayanna and Caroline), YIKES.

One thing to point out - I had a chance to watch Blanca for about a half of a game in her Italian pro league. OMG. She was like a snake coiled and ready to strike, but was sort of held back by her own play, and the play if the team - the Italian team did NOT play elite defense, no real motion offense, nor did they put in the kind of effort that will be required at UConn (including constant motion offense), but this girl has ALL the tools to be great.

Anyway watching her play - the way she moves, shoots, dribbles, can layup with both hands, defends and uses her length... I'm back on the "Blanca will start" bandwagon. I just think she's going to be that good. Cannot wait to see what Geno and the staff do with her!!

 

[Vowelguy]

I think this has to be strictly true. If the data set were large enough, this distinction would diminish in importance. But a single season will never be a large enough data set.

No matter how big the dataset, it's going to look like you only need to replace 30 mpg for Paige (or Stewie or Maya or ...). But in reality that was <25 mpg in blowouts and 40 mpg in the big ones.

Yes it can be time consuming to strip out the blowouts so I understand why folks dont. But in some cases the non-parsed data can be meaningless imho.

 

[msf22b]

With the greatest respect David
I think the real question is:
How much new scoring has arrived?
We'll know soon enough.

 

[Bone Dog]

With the greatest respect David
I think the real question is:
How much new scoring has arrived?
We'll know soon enough.

Not just new scoring. Also expanded shot opportunities for existing players. Last year the team averaged 62.8 FGA 52 of which were by the rotation players. And 19.4 of those were taken up by Paige and Kaitlyn. Last season Serah got 15.1 FGA per game. Her FG% was 49.3 which is respectable but not stellar for a post player. I’d be surprised if between them KK and Ash and Kayleigh don’t soak up Kaitlyn’s 5.3 FGA, which only leaves Paige’s 14.1. Serah may not get all of them, but I’m also expecting Sarah and Azzi to up their shot attempts too. And Sarah had the highest FG% on the team.

The gist is I’m not worried about production next season. I’m only curious about who it will come from. Watching it develop is gonna be fun.

 

[Bone Dog]

I had a chance to watch Blanca for about a half of a game in her Italian pro league. OMG. She was like a snake coiled and ready to strike

Amen to that! And hallelujah!