UConn stats... Are there enough minutes for everyone to play?

[visitingcock]

visitingcock- - In my first sentence I said,
"When all are healthy, which may be the middle of the season, IMHO the starting players will be:"
I don't think this will be the STARTING LINEUP in November!
I agree that Geno will start the girls with the most experience in his system! But by the end of January, for example, my prediction could be the starting lineup!

Sorry, I wasn't clear that I was agreeing with you in that. and just adding explanation.

 

[jdote33]

So I was watching 2019 vs South Carolina actually... Phee was sooo good. So versatile. It kinda made me a little less worried about not having a true traditional center. Phee in space was insane and I'm interested to see Jana with 4 shooters/scorers around her. I think it's just a different look when u have a super aggressive post at the 5 who can shoot and dribble drive

Like I would love to see
Paige
AZ
Azzi
Caroline
Jana

The question is, can Jana pass. I know Sarah Strong can.

 

[Cuango]

My prediction for November, I know Aubrey won’t be ready.

PG-Paige
SG-Azzi
W-Sarah
PF-Ice/Aubrey
C-Jana

 

[cferraro04]

I've done this exercise many times in the past. And a couple of few things always happen 1. Geno usually has another plan that is different than mine; 2. Certain players unexpectedly stand out in practice and Geno rewards them; 3. Someone gets hurt and doesn't play; 4. The other team presents match-up problems and Geno has to go with a different line-up; 5. In a blow-out starters sit subs play...everyone eats; 6. Any attempt at the exercise must assume that all 14 players are eligible to play as that situation poses the biggest challenge to spreading the minutes; 7. During the post-season, Geno will invariably shorten his bench.

But, it is still a good exercise to participate in because it gives a profound appreciation for how tough Geno and his staff's job is when they have a deep and talented line-up. So here goes:

Paige Bueckers..............................21
Azzi Fudd........................................21
KK Arnold.......................................13
Jana El-Alfy....................................17
Qadence Samuels.......................12
Allie Ziebel.....................................10
Ashlyn Shade................................13
Kaitlyn Chen.................................16
Sara Strong...................................17
Morgan Cheli...............................10
Ice Brady........................................17
Carolyn Ducharme.....................11
Ayanna Patterson.......................10
Aubrey Griffin..............................12
Total..............................................200

Point Guard / Shooting Guard total minutes: 94 Total available minutes at the point guard and the shooting guard = 80
Small Forward / Power Forward total minutes: 72 Total available minutes at small forward, power forward = 80
Center total minutes: 34 Total available minutes at Center = 40

Analysis: There are 14 excess minutes at point guard and shooting guard. This analysis is 8 minutes short at the small forward and the power forward position and 6 minutes short at the center. So, one or more of the guards will have to put some time in a small forward. Some of the point guards will have to give up minutes to the Power forwards and the Center positions. Or, the coaching staff will run with a 3-guard line-up or they may decide to play big...at the end of the day there are 200 minutes available and these 14 players will divvy them up among them. Some days they will play more minutes other days they will play less. The above list is simply an average over the year. Minutes will be adjusted if players miss games because of injuries.

Point Guards - Paige Bueckers, KK Arnold, Kaitlin Chen, Azzie Fudd, Allie Ziebel, Ashlynn Shade
Shooting Guards - Paige Bueckers, Azzie Fudd, Allie Ziebel, Ashlynn Shade, Morgan Chelli
Small Forwards - Paige Bueckers, Morgan Chelli, Aubrey Griffin, Qadence Samuels, Carolyn Ducharme, Sara Strong
Power Forwards - Sara Strong, Ayanna Patterson, Ice Brady, Carolyn Ducharme
Centers - Jana El-Alfy, Ice Brady, Ayanna Patterson

 

[JellyBean]

I've done this exercise many times in the past. And a couple of few things always happen 1. Geno usually has another plan that is different than mine; 2. Certain players unexpectedly stand out in practice and Geno rewards them; 3. Someone gets hurt and doesn't play; 4. The other team presents match-up problems and Geno has to go with a different line-up; 5. In a blow-out starters sit subs play...everyone eats; 6. Any attempt at the exercise must assume that all 14 players are eligible to play as that situation poses the biggest challenge to spreading the minutes; 7. During the post-season, Geno will invariably shorten his bench.

But, it is still a good exercise to participate in because it gives a profound appreciation for how tough Geno and his staff's job is when they have a deep and talented line-up. So here goes:

Paige Bueckers..............................21
Azzi Fudd........................................21
KK Arnold.......................................13
Jana El-Alfy....................................17
Qadence Samuels.......................12
Allie Ziebel.....................................10
Ashlyn Shade................................13
Kaitlyn Chen.................................16
Sara Strong...................................17
Morgan Cheli...............................10
Ice Brady........................................17
Carolyn Ducharme.....................11
Ayanna Patterson.......................10
Aubrey Griffin..............................12
Total..............................................200

Point Guard / Shooting Guard total minutes: 94 Total available minutes at the point guard and the shooting guard = 80
Small Forward / Power Forward total minutes: 72 Total available minutes at small forward, power forward = 80
Center total minutes: 34 Total available minutes at Center = 40

Analysis: There are 14 excess minutes at point guard and shooting guard. This analysis is 8 minutes short at the small forward and the power forward position and 6 minutes short at the center. So, one or more of the guards will have to put some time in a small forward. Some of the point guards will have to give up minutes to the Power forwards and the Center positions. Or, the coaching staff will run with a 3-guard line-up or they may decide to play big...at the end of the day there are 200 minutes available and these 14 players will divvy them up among them. Some days they will play more minutes other days they will play less. The above list is simply an average over the year. Minutes will be adjusted if players miss games because of injuries.

Point Guards - Paige Bueckers, KK Arnold, Kaitlin Chen, Azzie Fudd, Allie Ziebel, Ashlynn Shade
Shooting Guards - Paige Bueckers, Azzie Fudd, Allie Ziebel, Ashlynn Shade, Morgan Chelli
Small Forwards - Paige Bueckers, Morgan Chelli, Aubrey Griffin, Qadence Samuels, Carolyn Ducharme, Sara Strong
Power Forwards - Sara Strong, Ayanna Patterson, Ice Brady, Carolyn Ducharme
Centers - Jana El-Alfy, Ice Brady, Ayanna Patterson

I see you have a lot of free time. Pretty awesome breakdown.

 

[Bone Dog]

I've done this exercise many times in the past. And a couple of few things always happen 1. Geno usually has another plan that is different than mine; 2. Certain players unexpectedly stand out in practice and Geno rewards them; 3. Someone gets hurt and doesn't play; 4. The other team presents match-up problems and Geno has to go with a different line-up; 5. In a blow-out starters sit subs play...everyone eats; 6. Any attempt at the exercise must assume that all 14 players are eligible to play as that situation poses the biggest challenge to spreading the minutes; 7. During the post-season, Geno will invariably shorten his bench.

But, it is still a good exercise to participate in because it gives a profound appreciation for how tough Geno and his staff's job is when they have a deep and talented line-up. So here goes:

Paige Bueckers..............................21
Azzi Fudd........................................21
KK Arnold.......................................13
Jana El-Alfy....................................17
Qadence Samuels.......................12
Allie Ziebel.....................................10
Ashlyn Shade................................13
Kaitlyn Chen.................................16
Sara Strong...................................17
Morgan Cheli...............................10
Ice Brady........................................17
Carolyn Ducharme.....................11
Ayanna Patterson.......................10
Aubrey Griffin..............................12
Total..............................................200

Point Guard / Shooting Guard total minutes: 94 Total available minutes at the point guard and the shooting guard = 80
Small Forward / Power Forward total minutes: 72 Total available minutes at small forward, power forward = 80
Center total minutes: 34 Total available minutes at Center = 40

Analysis: There are 14 excess minutes at point guard and shooting guard. This analysis is 8 minutes short at the small forward and the power forward position and 6 minutes short at the center. So, one or more of the guards will have to put some time in a small forward. Some of the point guards will have to give up minutes to the Power forwards and the Center positions. Or, the coaching staff will run with a 3-guard line-up or they may decide to play big...at the end of the day there are 200 minutes available and these 14 players will divvy them up among them. Some days they will play more minutes other days they will play less. The above list is simply an average over the year. Minutes will be adjusted if players miss games because of injuries.

Point Guards - Paige Bueckers, KK Arnold, Kaitlin Chen, Azzie Fudd, Allie Ziebel, Ashlynn Shade
Shooting Guards - Paige Bueckers, Azzie Fudd, Allie Ziebel, Ashlynn Shade, Morgan Chelli
Small Forwards - Paige Bueckers, Morgan Chelli, Aubrey Griffin, Qadence Samuels, Carolyn Ducharme, Sara Strong
Power Forwards - Sara Strong, Ayanna Patterson, Ice Brady, Carolyn Ducharme
Centers - Jana El-Alfy, Ice Brady, Ayanna Patterson

I love your breakdown, @cferraro04 ! And a season-long average analysis makes sense to me. But I am still thinking month by month.

My breakdown would also be a little less position specific, since I expect Geno to run sets with different moving parts, like a plain vanilla 2-3, or a 4 guard set or even a 5-out set. Given the size of some his guards, this is a real possibility.

That said, I think in November-December, when not all the returners are back, we might expect average minutes something like:

Paige (25) Ash or Azzi (25) KK (20) Ice (20) Jana (20) with Sarah (15) Azzi or Ash (15) Kaitlyn (10) Morgan (10) Q (10) Caroline (10) Allie (10) = 200 minutes. Obviously, the numbers are too neat and round, but you get the picture

Come January and the possible return of Ayanna and the growing experience of the core players, I think the picture shifts to something more like this:

Paige (25) Azzi (25) KK (20) Sarah (25) Jana (25) with Ice (15) Ayanna (10) Ash (10) Kaitlyn (10) Morgan (8) Q (7) Caroline (10) Allie (10) = 200 minutes. It's just a guess about Sarah getting the start and more minutes, but it's not a reach. At this point, I imagine the rotation will still include everyone.

In February, and with the possible return of Aubrey, I wouldn't be surprised to see something like this:

Paige (30) Azzi (25) KK or Kaitlyn (20) Sarah (20) Jana (30) with Aubrey (10) Ice (10) Ayanna (10) Ash (10) Kaitlyn or KK (10) Morgan (5) Q (5) Caroline (10) Allie (5) = 200 minutes.

As you can see, I'm imagining Jana's minutes will only grow, and this clearly assumes that she impresses Geno and makes significant progress. If this doesn't happen, her minutes would probably shrink and Sarah's and Ice's would grow. It's also possible that Caroline could return stronger than I'm expecting in this forecast and might take some of Azzi's minutes, for example. You can also see that I haven't accounted for much shrinkage in the rotation, by which I mean the players in double figure minutes. In my view the rotation include all 12 healthy ones in November, only 11 in January with the return of Ayanna, in February once Aubrey returns, it would have shrunk to 10.

In March, the full distribution might look like this:

Paige (30) Azzi (30) Kaitlyn (20) Sarah (30) Jana (30) with Aubrey (15) Caroline (15) Ash (10) KK (10) Ice (5) Ayanna (5) Morgan (3) Q (4) Allie (3) = 200 minutes.

Here the rotation has shrunk to 9 players and consists mainly of seniors and the two sophomores who really proved themselves last season. I think this is the rotation Geno takes into the tournament, and it may shrink even a little more in April, if Aubrey or Caroline have a surge in the Big East tournament.

If the Final Four or the NC game is really close, I wouldn't be surprised to see Paige and Azzi play 35 mins each, for example, and KK and Kaitlyn may end up splitting 40 mins between them. If that happens, Aubrey and Caroline may soak up the rest of the available minutes after Sarah and Jana. This would be splitting the playing time among the most clutch performers Geno has available to him: Paige Azzi Aubrey Caroline and Kaitlyn may belong to this list too. And the rest would go to the most promising new kids: Sarah and Jana. It's true that Ash would lose out, and this would seem to be more likely if they're up against a very tall team. If they're not, however, Ash might see her minutes climb in the last two rounds, since she could well prove to be a very clutch performer indeed.

Obviously, games are fluid and minutes predictions are static.

 

[Skeets]

I see Ash getting twice as many minute, maybe 20 to 25, as any of the predictions thus far. Where will these minutes come from? Good question.

As others have said minutes can, and probably will, vary depending on health, time of the year, BE or OOC. One thing that will have less of an effect is matching up to the opponent. When Geno has a winning team, and I hope this is a winning team, Geno's attitude seems to be "the other team reacts to UConn, not the other way around".

 

[CL82]

I see Ash getting twice as many minute, maybe 20 to 25, as any of the predictions thus far. Where will these minutes come from? Good question.

I'm a little surprised at the lack of love for Shade in these projections. Last year Ashlynn was the third leading scorer on the team at 11 points per game behind only Paige and Aaliyah. She was third in three-point shooting percentage behind only Paige and Nika, third in free-throw percentage behind only Amari and Azzi, and fourth in overall shooting percentage behind Aaliyah, Aubrey and Paige.

She did all that as a freshman thrust into a starting role. She played with intensity and enthusiasm every minute she was in. Kind of tough to leave all that on the bench for the bulk of the game.

 

[Bone Dog]

I'm a little surprised at the lack of love for Shade in these projections. Last year Ashlynn was the third leading scorer on the team at 11 points per game behind only Paige and Aaliyah. She was third in three-point shooting percentage behind only Paige and Nika, third in free-throw percentage behind only Amari and Azzi, and fourth in overall shooting percentage behind Aaliyah, Aubrey and Paige.

She did all that as a freshman thrust into a starting role. She played with intensity and enthusiasm every minute she was in. Kind of tough to leave all that on the bench for the bulk of the game.

You’re right. It will be very tough to leave all of her production on the bench. Of all the kids since Paige, I watched more of Ash’s hs games than any other player, simply because more were available on YouTube. I really love her game, her grit, her sportsmanship, her commitment to team play and defense. I don’t envy Geno on this one, since it’s clear how much he loves her.

However, if the injured return to form in the course of the season, I don’t see an alternative. That’s the key assumption, and a second assumption is that Sarah and Jana play up to expectations. Once you make these assumptions, then it’s tough to start Ash after December. I imagine her as a key rotation player from then on who is gradually and temporarily eclipsed by returning stars. it’s tough to see her displacing a healthy Aubrey or Caroline. They would likely get more minutes than her merely because they could bring more to the team on both ends.

As a freshman, Caroline brought even more to the team after Paige was injured than Ash did last season. It’s not an exaggeration to say that she carried the team in that stretch. I can’t see sitting that Caroline down in favor of Ash. It would be a similar decision with Aubrey. Both of them bring more defensively and just as much offense… and as for rebounding … well all three of these players can be game changers in every dimension.

It will be tough indeed for Geno next season. I don’t envy him. Ash is the most interesting player to forecast for because she is the most difficult to keep on the bench. But he may just have to do it assuming a healthy roster.

 

[CL82]

As a freshman, Caroline brought even more to the team after Paige was injured than Ash did last season.

Caroline's freshman year statistics, which were her best by the way, are lower than Ashlynn's freshman statistics in each of the categories listed.

You seem to presume that everyone else will play beyond expectations yet Ashlynn will play below expectations. That's fine. It's all a guess right now, but I'm just saying the actual statistics don't support that presumption.

It fascinates me though because Ashlynn was forced into a starter spot as a freshman due to injury and was not only adequate, but excelled and was one of the more productive players on the team. Yet, she seems to be the forgotten woman by many in this thread. That's surprising to me.

Again, though, it's all speculation right now. It'll be interesting to see how it all develops. It's a good problem to have and hopefully everyone comes back 100% healthy, and stays that way, so that they all have the opportunity to compete at their best for spots.

 

[cferraro04]

Caroline's freshman year statistics, which were her best by the way, are lower than Ashlynn's freshman statistics in each of the categories listed.

You seem to presume that everyone else will play beyond expectations yet Ashlynn will play below expectations. That's fine. It's all a guess right now, but I'm just saying the actual statistics don't support that presumption.

It fascinates me though because Ashlynn was forced into a starter spot as a freshman due to injury and was not only adequate, but excelled and was one of the more productive players on the team. Yet, she seems to be the forgotten woman by many in this thread. That's surprising to me.

Again, though, it's all speculation right now. It'll be interesting to see how it all develops. It's a good problem to have and hopefully everyone comes back 100% healthy, and stays that way, so that they all have the opportunity to compete at their best for spots.

By no means is Ashlynn a forgotten woman. Her contributions this last season are duly noted and certainly appreciated by all UConn fans. We don't get to the final four without her. This year, assuming we have a full roster of healthy players will be exceptionally challenging for Geno. Based on Ash's contributions last season does she deserve to be one of the top minute getters? The simple answer is yes. But, as noted in this thread where do the minutes come from, and at whose expense?

Keep in mind that we have senior students who have contributed much-needed play when they were healthy. Geno is keenly aware of his upperclassmen and the fact that their college careers may soon be over. Aubrey and Caroline if healthy will be given their opportunities.

The same argument could be made for KK...she was thrust into a starting role and while she may have come up short on the scoring end and her three-point shot could have been a little better she was a demon on the defensive end and she played a big role in UConn getting to the final four. Where do we get minutes for her?

Azzi is probably one of the best three-point shooters in the country she has to play. If healthy everybody would agree that it will be the Paige-Azzi show next season.

After losing Aaliyah Edwards we need to fill that void so both Ice and Jana have to play. Yeah, we could go to a small line-up but Geno knows that he has to develop the posts because a small line-up won't get the job done with some teams.

Sara Strong is the number one recruit in the county and she didn't come to UConn to sit on the bench...she will play major minutes.

Ziebel and Cheli aren't your typical freshmen they will be ready to play from day one. If anyone doubts it then ask yourself if Shade and KK were ready then why wouldn't the number 7 and the number 11 recruit be ready?

Then what do you do with Kaitlin Chen...for her to decide to come to UConn someone had to outline what her expected role was going to be. It is already established that she is a tried and tested point guard who brings defense just like KK and who is a scorer and this is her last year of eligibility...oh, oh...another player who has to play.

Couldn't we make a similar argument for Qadence Samuels...we know she can shoot, we know she can play defense and she is long, and quick on offense. She was needed to give UConn something off the bench. Will she make the sophomore jump? If she does where to we get minutes for her?

If you want to talk about the "forgotten woman" look no further than Ayanna Patterson. Remember her play in her freshmen year? Yes, it was somewhat disappointing but, she was nursing injuries. She has had her surgery, she will be recovered by January and ready to play. Did anyone forget the videos of her in high school playing above the rim and dunking the basketball? What does Geno do with her?

Geno has a big problem finding minutes for all his players. There is a reason why Geno isn't aggressively pursuing the transfer wire. He knows he has a minutes problem and if he doesn't manage it correctly he could lose players next season. He doesn't want to add to the quagmire by getting another player who only has one year left and has to play.

Additionally, Geno knows that Ashlynn and KK are only sophomores. He knows that they both are about the team and understand that Geno has to put the team first. Geno, KK, and Ash know that they will get their opportunities in the post-Paige / Azzi era.

All in all, your point is well taken...but, with one exception Ash is not the "forgotten woman". Finding minutes for this amazing group of women is a daunting task but, aren't you happy that we have this problem? I think there are about 300 Division One coaches who would love to have this situation.

 

[diggerfoot]

No way Geno with his team would have played a deep bench if his stars were healthy in tight games. She did her style because many of her players are about the same other that Cardoso. If Geno had a healthy lineup he would have had 3 all-Americans (Azzi included.). And as we saw he had no problem not giving Ice and even Amari many minutes (i.e. not working his low post bench) because he values "play your best."

While Paige would never say anything publicly-- but this is the player that said to Geno once "You owe me minutes." And she is just as competitive as Geno. No way she would be happy knowing that her coach pulled her when he didn't have to other than very few minutes. No way the top recruits that come to UCONN don't recognize that Geno is going to play them rather than share minutes.

As stated before - South Carolina was very fortunate these past three years without their number 1 rival being healthy. All the while we saw UCONN go to FF and seconds away from finals with a core of 6/7 players with 4 freshmen. The bench points of view are overdone. That's whiy the 14 titles matter. It’s why all the Final Fours matter. In part its why number 1 recruits continue to come to UCONN as well. They know Geno is gonna give them “minutes.”

Not sure which post of yours to best respond, since it is the cumulative that has me wondering. But let’s start with you begging the question by saying there is no way Auriemma would play a deep bench if the stars were healthy in a tight game. This veers from the intent of discussing whether the normal rotation expands from the past injury plagued seasons due to the abundance of talent and the hope for a healthy roster.

In UConn’s most dominant seasons there were, by definition, no tight games. Also in those seasons there were deeper rotations. Indeed, even in the tight NC game of 1995 there was a rotation of 8. Not deep, but not skimpy either. Were we dominant because a deeper rotation made the stars more rested to play at peak efficiency? Or because the talent warranted a deeper rotation and there was effectively little drop off when they came in? Likely a little of both, but the evidence clearly reveals a correlation between deeper rotations and dominance.

Now even in an otherwise dominant season there yet may be one or two tight games, and in those one or two games there may be deviation from the norm of a deeper rotation during a season of dominance. Such occurred against Stanford when we only scored 12 points in the first half, but outside of that bewildering exception the team had a deep rotation that year. Again, this is what the hope and discussion was really intended to be, that the norm for next season will be a deep rotation, even if there are one or two game exceptions.

 

[CL82]

By no means is Ashlynn a forgotten woman. Her contributions this last season are duly noted and certainly appreciated by all UConn fans. We don't get to the final four without her. This year, assuming we have a full roster of healthy players will be exceptionally challenging for Geno. Based on Ash's contributions last season does she deserve to be one of the top minute getters? The simple answer is yes. But, as noted in this thread where do the minutes come from, and at whose expense?

Keep in mind that we have senior students who have contributed much-needed play when they were healthy. Geno is keenly aware of his upperclassmen and the fact that their college careers may soon be over. Aubrey and Caroline if healthy will be given their opportunities.

The same argument could be made for KK...she was thrust into a starting role and while she may have come up short on the scoring end and her three-point shot could have been a little better she was a demon on the defensive end and she played a big role in UConn getting to the final four. Where do we get minutes for her?

Azzi is probably one of the best three-point shooters in the country she has to play. If healthy everybody would agree that it will be the Paige-Azzi show next season.

After losing Aaliyah Edwards we need to fill that void so both Ice and Jana have to play. Yeah, we could go to a small line-up but Geno knows that he has to develop the posts because a small line-up won't get the job done with some teams.

Sara Strong is the number one recruit in the county and she didn't come to UConn to sit on the bench...she will play major minutes.

Ziebel and Cheli aren't your typical freshmen they will be ready to play from day one. If anyone doubts it then ask yourself if Shade and KK were ready then why wouldn't the number 7 and the number 11 recruit be ready?

Then what do you do with Kaitlin Chen...for her to decide to come to UConn someone had to outline what her expected role was going to be. It is already established that she is a tried and tested point guard who brings defense just like KK and who is a scorer and this is her last year of eligibility...oh, oh...another player who has to play.

Couldn't we make a similar argument for Qadence Samuels...we know she can shoot, we know she can play defense and she is long, and quick on offense. She was needed to give UConn something off the bench. Will she make the sophomore jump? If she does where to we get minutes for her?

If you want to talk about the "forgotten woman" look no further than Ayanna Patterson. Remember her play in her freshmen year? Yes, it was somewhat disappointing but, she was nursing injuries. She has had her surgery, she will be recovered by January and ready to play. Did anyone forget the videos of her in high school playing above the rim and dunking the basketball? What does Geno do with her?

Geno has a big problem finding minutes for all his players. There is a reason why Geno isn't aggressively pursuing the transfer wire. He knows he has a minutes problem and if he doesn't manage it correctly he could lose players next season. He doesn't want to add to the quagmire by getting another player who only has one year left and has to play.

Additionally, Geno knows that Ashlynn and KK are only sophomores. He knows that they both are about the team and understand that Geno has to put the team first. Geno, KK, and Ash know that they will get their opportunities in the post-Paige / Azzi era.

All in all, your point is well taken...but, with one exception Ash is not the "forgotten woman". Finding minutes for this amazing group of women is a daunting task but, aren't you happy that we have this problem? I think there are about 300 Division One coaches who would love to have this situation.

Oh, as I noted above I agree it's a good problem to have.

For what it's worth Azzi, at her best, is a phenomenal three-point shooter. Ashlynn's three-point shooting percentage last year was higher than Azzi's two of the three years Azzi has played here. That is in no way intended to diminish Azzi, rather it's another way to point out how well Ashlynn played last season.

Again, though, it'll sort itself out.

 

[Bone Dog]

Caroline's freshman year statistics, which were her best by the way, are lower than Ashlynn's freshman statistics in each of the categories listed.

You seem to presume that everyone else will play beyond expectations yet Ashlynn will play below expectations. That's fine. It's all a guess right now, but I'm just saying the actual statistics don't support that presumption.

It fascinates me though because Ashlynn was forced into a starter spot as a freshman due to injury and was not only adequate, but excelled and was one of the more productive players on the team. Yet, she seems to be the forgotten woman by many in this thread. That's surprising to me.

Again, though, it's all speculation right now. It'll be interesting to see how it all develops. It's a good problem to have and hopefully everyone comes back 100% healthy, and stays that way, so that they all have the opportunity to compete at their best for spots.

I don't disagree. The stats don't entirely support my reading. However, I absolutely presume that everyone will play to, not beyond, expectations. I'm assuming a sophomore leap for everyone including Ash. What else can one do in the summer? I refuse to assume the worst.

For example, as I said, Caroline carried the team in January of 2022. After that stretch, she faded due to injuries, mainly an aggravated hip injury that kept her out of many games and limited her minutes in others. This is the Caroline I'm forecasting will return. There's plenty of room to disagree with my assessment of Caroline, and especially my focusing on this brief stretch -- one month essentially -- in her freshman year that she hasn't been healthy enough to reproduce since.

However, when it comes to Aubrey, "the actual statistics" do support the presumption that she can bring more to the team than Ash did last season... if we confine ourselves to the 22-23 season. This is in addition to the notorious eyeball test in that Aubrey was one of the primary triggers for the transition game. What about the following season? Why not focus on that one, too? Aubrey's numbers dropped even before the injury. But I'm inclined to attribute that to Geno's already focusing on getting the freshman into the mix early in the season. The cascade of bad injury news had already claimed Azzi Ayanna and Caroline. But I assume that if Aubrey had not suffered an injury, she would have loomed much larger January-March.

But should we restrict our statistical sample to that one season for Aubrey, or to that one month of her freshman year for Caroline? This is a totally fair question. All I can say is that if neither of them lives up to the standards they set for their play in the past, I'll be thrilled to see Ash get a lot more minutes... assuming she can beat out Morgan and Allie for playing time.

To speak in the absolutes we're so fond of in the BY, in theory a healthy Caroline could be an AA candidate and Aubrey could be the Sixth Woman of the Year. Sadly, in reality Caroline has never been able to put together an entire season playing at that clip, and Aubrey may not be able to recover her magic or find the superhero cape she seemed to wear so often in that season. If she can't, I hope Ash finds her own cape.

 

[BobbyJ]

You’re right. It will be very tough to leave all of her production on the bench. Of all the kids since Paige, I watched more of Ash’s hs games than any other player, simply because more were available on YouTube. I really love her game, her grit, her sportsmanship, her commitment to team play and defense. I don’t envy Geno on this one, since it’s clear how much he loves her.

However, if the injured return to form in the course of the season, I don’t see an alternative. That’s the key assumption, and a second assumption is that Sarah and Jana play up to expectations. Once you make these assumptions, then it’s tough to start Ash after December. I imagine her as a key rotation player from then on who is gradually and temporarily eclipsed by returning stars. it’s tough to see her displacing a healthy Aubrey or Caroline. They would likely get more minutes than her merely because they could bring more to the team on both ends.

As a freshman, Caroline brought even more to the team after Paige was injured than Ash did last season. It’s not an exaggeration to say that she carried the team in that stretch. I can’t see sitting that Caroline down in favor of Ash. It would be a similar decision with Aubrey. Both of them bring more defensively and just as much offense… and as for rebounding … well all three of these players can be game changers in every dimension.

It will be tough indeed for Geno next season. I don’t envy him. Ash is the most interesting player to forecast for because she is the most difficult to keep on the bench. But he may just have to do it assuming a healthy roster.

I see no path for Ducharme to play ahead of Shade. Not only is Shade valuable on offense but she is more than adequate on defense and could stay on the floor for 35+ minutes if needed plus she is now trusted by Auriemma to do that. Between slowness and foul trouble, Ducharme is a defensive liability and wouldn't be able to stay out there more than 10-15 minutes.

 

[CL82]

I don't disagree. The stats don't entirely support my reading. However, I absolutely presume that everyone will play to, not beyond, expectations. I'm assuming a sophomore leap for everyone including Ash. What else can one do in the summer? I refuse to assume the worst.

For example, as I said, Caroline carried the team in January of 2022. After that stretch, she faded due to injuries, mainly an aggravated hip injury that kept her out of many games and limited her minutes in others. This is the Caroline I'm forecasting will return. There's plenty of room to disagree with my assessment of Caroline, and especially my focusing on this brief stretch -- one month essentially -- in her freshman year that she hasn't been healthy enough to reproduce since.

However, when it comes to Aubrey, "the actual statistics" do support the presumption that she can bring more to the team than Ash did last season... if we confine ourselves to the 22-23 season. This is in addition to the notorious eyeball test in that Aubrey was one of the primary triggers for the transition game. What about the following season? Why not focus on that one, too? Aubrey's numbers dropped even before the injury. But I'm inclined to attribute that to Geno's already focusing on getting the freshman into the mix early in the season. The cascade of bad injury news had already claimed Azzi Ayanna and Caroline. But I assume that if Aubrey had not suffered an injury, she would have loomed much larger January-March.

But should we restrict our statistical sample to that one season for Aubrey, or to that one month of her freshman year for Caroline? This is a totally fair question. All I can say is that if neither of them lives up to the standards they set for their play in the past, I'll be thrilled to see Ash get a lot more minutes... assuming she can beat out Morgan and Allie for playing time.

To speak in the absolutes we're so fond of in the BY, in theory a healthy Caroline could be an AA candidate and Aubrey could be the Sixth Woman of the Year. Sadly, in reality Caroline has never been able to put together an entire season playing at that clip, and Aubrey may not be able to recover her magic or find the superhero cape she seemed to wear so often in that season. If she can't, I hope Ash finds her own cape.

I guess, but when you're speculating, basing that on actual stats seems to make more sense than just imagining what you think will happen.

It kind of feels like we're going around in circles on this, so feel free to have the last word.

 

[hoophuskee]

In big games that are tight-- assuming health is okay -
Paige close to 40
Azzi -- close to 35
Sarah -- Over 30.

From there evrything will be determined

Not sure which post of yours to best respond, since it is the cumulative that has me wondering. But let’s start with you begging the question by saying there is no way Auriemma would play a deep bench if the stars were healthy in a tight game. This veers from the intent of discussing whether the normal rotation expands from the past injury plagued seasons due to the abundance of talent and the hope for a healthy roster.

In UConn’s most dominant seasons there were, by definition, no tight games. Also in those seasons there were deeper rotations. Indeed, even in the tight NC game of 1995 there was a rotation of 8. Not deep, but not skimpy either. Were we dominant because a deeper rotation made the stars more rested to play at peak efficiency? Or because the talent warranted a deeper rotation and there was effectively little drop off when they came in? Likely a little of both, but the evidence clearly reveals a correlation between deeper rotations and dominance.

Now even in an otherwise dominant season there yet may be one or two tight games, and in those one or two games there may be deviation from the norm of a deeper rotation during a season of dominance. Such occurred against Stanford when we only scored 12 points in the first half, but outside of that bewildering exception the team had a deep rotation that year. Again, this is what the hope and discussion was really intended to be, that the norm for next season will be a deep rotation, even if there are one or two game exceptions.

First off how much are we in "disagreement" of “core.” On Monday post # 62 I said

"If UCONN has just 3 of the 4 just mentioned as "terrific" then in big games, then there won’t be a 10 player bench in tight games." I specifically mention "10." If 8 (or a stretch to 9) – I beleive that is fine.

I don't believe though that there were no tight games other than maybe 1 season (though I don’t have time yet to look). And in those games that UCONN won comfortably at the end- there were probably games in which he played several of his starters/ core bench played a lot of minutes then he brought the bench in when the game was comfortably won so it wasn’t his use of bench but just that his starters/core bench eventually pulled away. I could be wrong- can’t check right now.

And I'm not interpreting this thread as you are in regard to intent which is why I responded with the 1st post off of this thread. In the paragraph above can we agree that it's logical that in games UCONN would win comfortably that Geno will use his bench? As you mentioned he has done it. So, what’s the purpose of the thread because in the past hasn't Geno been criticized for playing his starters too much in not only comfortable wins but also tight games so the players can gain experience leading up to the NCAA's, right? I just thought "ofc" he is going to play his bench in comfortable wins" but I believe there are many that want Geno to "evolve" into playing his bench more in tight games which I felt was also a point of the thread – because it's logic that he will always use his bench in comfortable wins, no? What else is there to discuss in regard to comfortable wins? He is going to do what he always has done when his team is winnigng comfortably. As you mentiion/ imply when cite the past - play his bench.

Am I wrong? If so, I apologize.

 

[BobbyJ]

I don't disagree. The stats don't entirely support my reading. However, I absolutely presume that everyone will play to, not beyond, expectations. I'm assuming a sophomore leap for everyone including Ash. What else can one do in the summer? I refuse to assume the worst.

For example, as I said, Caroline carried the team in January of 2022. After that stretch, she faded due to injuries, mainly an aggravated hip injury that kept her out of many games and limited her minutes in others. This is the Caroline I'm forecasting will return. There's plenty of room to disagree with my assessment of Caroline, and especially my focusing on this brief stretch -- one month essentially -- in her freshman year that she hasn't been healthy enough to reproduce since.

However, when it comes to Aubrey, "the actual statistics" do support the presumption that she can bring more to the team than Ash did last season... if we confine ourselves to the 22-23 season. This is in addition to the notorious eyeball test in that Aubrey was one of the primary triggers for the transition game. What about the following season? Why not focus on that one, too? Aubrey's numbers dropped even before the injury. But I'm inclined to attribute that to Geno's already focusing on getting the freshman into the mix early in the season. The cascade of bad injury news had already claimed Azzi Ayanna and Caroline. But I assume that if Aubrey had not suffered an injury, she would have loomed much larger January-March.

But should we restrict our statistical sample to that one season for Aubrey, or to that one month of her freshman year for Caroline? This is a totally fair question. All I can say is that if neither of them lives up to the standards they set for their play in the past, I'll be thrilled to see Ash get a lot more minutes... assuming she can beat out Morgan and Allie for playing time.

To speak in the absolutes we're so fond of in the BY, in theory a healthy Caroline could be an AA candidate and Aubrey could be the Sixth Woman of the Year. Sadly, in reality Caroline has never been able to put together an entire season playing at that clip, and Aubrey may not be able to recover her magic or find the superhero cape she seemed to wear so often in that season. If she can't, I hope Ash finds her own cape.

In theory or reality there's simply no way.

 

[yhun89]

Point Guards - Paige Bueckers, KK Arnold, Kaitlin Chen, Azzie Fudd, Allie Ziebel, Ashlynn Shade
Shooting Guards - Paige Bueckers, Azzie Fudd, Allie Ziebel, Ashlynn Shade, Morgan Chelli
Small Forwards - Paige Bueckers, Morgan Chelli, Aubrey Griffin, Qadence Samuels, Carolyn Ducharme, Sara Strong
Power Forwards - Sara Strong, Ayanna Patterson, Ice Brady, Carolyn Ducharme
Centers - Jana El-Alfy, Ice Brady, Ayanna Patterson

PGs should be: Paige, Morgan, Kaitlyn, and KK.
Ash, Allie, and especially Azzi should not be handling the ball up court; they should be looking to get open on the perimeter. Azzi also hasn’t been able to deal with pressure on the ball very well.

Paige isn’t going to be a SF next year most likely. She was forced to play that position because of injury. I expect her to be fully a SG next season.

Jana is the only capable center. Ice is strong, but she doesn’t seem to like posting up, and neither does Ayanna. In fact, we’ve barely even seen Ayanna’s abilities though it looks like she’s a good rebounder. Doesn’t look built to be a center.

 

[cferraro04]

PGs should be: Paige, Morgan, Kaitlyn, and KK.
Ash, Allie, and especially Azzi should not be handling the ball up court; they should be looking to get open on the perimeter. Azzi also hasn’t been able to deal with pressure on the ball very well.

Paige isn’t going to be a SF next year most likely. She was forced to play that position because of injury. I expect her to be fully a SG next season.

Jana is the only capable center. Ice is strong, but she doesn’t seem to like posting up, and neither does Ayanna. In fact, we’ve barely even seen Ayanna’s abilities though it looks like she’s a good rebounder. Doesn’t look built to be a center.

I think you may have misinterpreted the intent of my listing positions and players in those positions. I don't disagree that Paige, Kaitlyn, KK will be primary point guards but I listed the others because Geno has the option to play those players there. Of course, some of the players listed will play most of the minutes in that position the others are a remote option if necessary (Injuries, blow-outs, garbage minute time, etc).

While I agree that Paige is unlikely to see time at the SF she is still an option if Geno decides to go with a three-guard or 4 guard option.

While Jana is the only capable center (a fact that hasn't been proven yet at the College level), she can't play 40 minutes nor would Geno ask her to...so, what other options at the center does Geno have besides Ice and Ayanna? I don't think anyone thinks that Sara will be playing the center position.

 

[yhun89]

I think you may have misinterpreted the intent of my listing positions and players in those positions. I don't disagree that Paige, Kaitlyn, KK will be primary point guards but I listed the others because Geno has the option to play those players there. Of course, some of the players listed will play most of the minutes in that position the others are a remote option if necessary (Injuries, blow-outs, garbage minute time, etc).

While I agree that Paige is unlikely to see time at the SF she is still an option if Geno decides to go with a three-guard or 4 guard option.

While Jana is the only capable center (a fact that hasn't been proven yet at the College level), she can't play 40 minutes nor would Geno ask her to...so, what other options at the center does Geno have besides Ice and Ayanna? I don't think anyone thinks that Sara will be playing the center position.

Sarah is a lot more capable than Ayanna and Ice though center wise She’s tougher and stronger under the basket and outrebounds everybody. When she and Joyce were on the same MCDAA team, she outrebounded Joyce by a lot, and Joyce was also known to be a good rebounder. Not afraid to get into position. Can also stretch the floor.

I get the other players have PG potential, but realistically Azzi should never be a PG. She cannot handle ball pressure at all. We saw it in the S16 against Ohio State: she shuts down when pressed.

 

[cferraro04]

Sarah is a lot more capable than Ayanna and Ice though center wise She’s tougher and stronger under the basket and outrebounds everybody. When she and Joyce were on the same MCDAA team, she outrebounded Joyce by a lot, and Joyce was also known to be a good rebounder. Not afraid to get into position. Can also stretch the floor.

I get the other players have PG potential, but realistically Azzi should never be a PG. She cannot handle ball pressure at all. We saw it in the S16 against Ohio State: she shuts down when pressed.

With regards to Sarah...she does not want to play the 1 position...she is more adept at the 2 and the 3. Geno's options at the one are touch and go. Jana - is not proven but has the size and has played the position well in international play, however, her effectiveness in the UConn system is yet to be proven. Ice played well at the end of last season. We should see the delayed sophomore jump from her given that she was injured for a year. Ayanna could play the 4 and the 5..., still, many questions remain on whether Ayanna will emerge as an effective player in any position.

 

[Bone Dog]

I see no path for Ducharme to play ahead of Shade. Not only is Shade valuable on offense but she is more than adequate on defense and could stay on the floor for 35+ minutes if needed plus she is now trusted by Auriemma to do that. Between slowness and foul trouble, Ducharme is a defensive liability and wouldn't be able to stay out there more than 10-15 minutes.

You make good points and your sense of things may turn out to be right.

I expect that we won't see any 35+ minute games for anyone, not even Paige, in the first half of the season. So Caroline will get her chance to show she deserves more minutes, as will Ash. I think you're right that Ash is simply sturdier and seems to be a better perimeter shooter and looks a bit quicker -- though she's not super quick herself.

 

[yhun89]

With regards to Sarah...she does not want to play the 1 position...she is more adept at the 2 and the 3. Geno's options at the one are touch and go. Jana - is not proven but has the size and has played the position well in international play, however, her effectiveness in the UConn system is yet to be proven. Ice played well at the end of last season. We should see the delayed sophomore jump from her given that she was injured for a year. Ayanna could play the 4 and the 5..., still, many questions remain on whether Ayanna will emerge as an effective player in any position.

A “1” is a PG, not a center. In her interview,
Sarah said she would play wherever they needed her.

 

[cferraro04]

A “1” is a PG, not a center. In her interview,
Sarah said she would play wherever they needed her.

My bad on the 1...I meant the 5. And, I did not say she wouldn't play where she was needed. I said that she doesn't want to play the 5 and that she is more adept at and prefers to play the 4 or the 3.