UConn stats... Are there enough minutes for everyone to play?

[diggerfoot]

I thoroughly enjoy these discussions. I had prepared a different type of response of which I disagree but one thing kept gnawing at me - now I feel more important- I get confused why you brought up Big Rig again. Why are you? I'm missing your point with her. What difference does it make that she was 3rd team vs our discussion? I think this could baseline my further arguments with you or anyone else. This is why in part why I made the 1st replied post on this thread separating/implying differnces of "normal" vs "tight." (i.e. Paige will will play 35-40 minutes in big games.).

I feel Amari was always 3rd team. I feel after the 10th player you are naturally players of the 3rd team. So, when you refer to rotations up to 11 players, are you suggesting that the 11th player was playing in tight games during crucial time more than 2 minutes or does 2 minutes count as "rotation?" If not, then what is your point about Big Rig vs our team this year vs Amari?

For this team -- do you feel in tight games Geno will play Paige 35+ minutes?
For this team-- if Azzi is playing like she did in her 1st bunch of games in her soph year do you feel Geno won’t play her near 35 minutes in tight games?
For this team-- if Sarah is proving to be somewhat of an equivalent to Juju/Hidalgo/Booker from last year do you feel Geno will play her over 30 minutes in tight games?

As for your comment of me moving the goal posts - if you are interested we can go direct in private with this? I love these type of discussions a lot but if I go down that "goalpost comment path," then it maybe keeps diverting from the thread and thenif anyone else chimes in specifically of me "moving the goalposts" then the mods will probably shut this down. Or if we were to create a new thread on here specific to this I'm fine with that too. Or go pirivate whatever you wish if you want.

Depending on what you say about Big Rig - I am probably disagreeing with how you view the definition of a normal rotation vs my point of a rotation in tight games. This is why I made the 1st comment on the thread as I did because Geno is going to more than likely going to give his stars big minutes as he near always does. To further this, our view of that Georgia game couldn't be more opposite. Which is why I'm suggesting for this year Paige is going to get the minutes mentioned above in big, tight games as will Azzi and Sarah if the above holds true to what I mentioned for both. Thus, if that holds -- --> That does not lead to a deep rotation bench. Andit's not one bit of a stretch that at least two if not 3 will be along the lines I mentioned if healthy.

The fact that 6’6” Rigby, a transfer who was an all-star in her former conference, was the eleventh player in and only played at the end of the games, while the other ten players were rotational, reveals how deep the rotation was that year. The other ten players I mentioned were in the rotation, Rigby was not. The roster called for that type of rotation that year.

In response to people thinking we have to have a deep rotation to succeed you challenge that and I have taken your side. When you seem to be saying that a seven player rotation or less is the ideal I take the position it depends upon the roster … and the coach for that matter. For example, from what I have seen from Hurley over a few years he appears to prefer at least eight, even when there is a drop off for the eighth. Whether he is right or you are, what he consistently puts into practice is different than the seven player rotation you often most often preach.

Whether Bueckers plays 30, 35 or 40 does not preclude a rotation of 8 or more. You could add 8 players to Bueckers getting 40 minutes with them all averaging 20 minutes. My point is not to offer a counter hypothetical, it’s to dismiss those hypotheticals entirely as besides the point regarding depth of rotation. Looking at the past, UConn women have played beautiful basketball against elite teams with rotations of 8-10. Whether he is smart to play an eighth player not yet at the same level as the first seven, Hurley seems to do pretty well for himself playing at least eight.

If you want to defend a seven player or less rotation as sufficient, then I am on your side. If you want to claim it as ideal I counter that it depends on the coach and roster. There really is not much more to discuss beyond that.

 

[Bone Dog]

Dreaming about super deep rotations is how we pass the time in the long hot summer. It's not necessarily how NCs are won.

 

[CONN78SEJ]

With the lineup for 2024-25 pretty much set, are there enough minutes to play all the talent? Unlike last season, this year will hopefully feature lots of competition for game time. Four talented new players replaced the two that graduated and the two that transferred. Azzi, Ayanna, Caroline and Aubrey will all hopefully return from injury and regain their pre-injury form. So, how does Geno find minutes to play what appears to be a very deep roster from 1 to 14?
Consider:
1. There ae 200 minutes of playing time in every typical game. (5 x 40)
2. Nika and Aaliyah played 2,371 total minutes. That is about 63 minutes per in a normal season.
3. Ines and Amari played 260 minutes total, which is about 6 more minutes.
4. KK and Ashlynn averaged 30 and 31 minutes per game. Quality subs could reduce that necessity by 7-8 minutes per game.
5, Finally, Aubrey may take until mid-season to be 100% and ready to play. Her 306 minutes are available to start the season.
6. So, as many as 90-100 minutes per game may be available. (rough estimate)

So, departing players and a deeper roster may free up 90-100 minutes for Geno and staff to use each game. That leaves Geno with two (?) starters to replace and some high quality reserves to work into the line up. Possible solutions:
1. Start Ashlynn and work Azzi slowly into a greater role, to start the season. Azzi uses 15-18 minutes initially.
2. Use Kaitlyn & KK at the point with each getting 18-22 minutes each.
3. Use Paige at the 3 spot and cut her heavy load to 28 minutes per game (from 32 min.) and work Sarah Strong between 17-20 minutes at 3 & 4.
4. Use Jana at the 5, using many (25?) of Liya's minutes. Use Ice at the 4/5 for 22 minutes. She averaged 17.5 so only have to add 4.5 minutes.
5. Caroline (at 3 and 4) and Ayanna (at 4 and 5) are quality subs, but the minutes are running out. What about Q? She averaged 12 per game.
6. Finally, what about Allie and Morgan? New but very talented...

Oh, I give up. Glad this is Geno and CD's job to figure out. Just hope everyone is healthy and fighting for game time..!!
Go Huskies..!!

It’s Geno’s job to field a team that can win games, not to make sure everyone is happy with their minutes. You also have to figure that there will be some minor injuries along the way, and having that deep bench is great to have.

 

[TCC Kid]

With the lineup for 2024-25 pretty much set, are there enough minutes to play all the talent? Unlike last season, this year will hopefully feature lots of competition for game time. Four talented new players replaced the two that graduated and the two that transferred. Azzi, Ayanna, Caroline and Aubrey will all hopefully return from injury and regain their pre-injury form. So, how does Geno find minutes to play what appears to be a very deep roster from 1 to 14?
Consider:
1. There ae 200 minutes of playing time in every typical game. (5 x 40)
2. Nika and Aaliyah played 2,371 total minutes. That is about 63 minutes per in a normal season.
3. Ines and Amari played 260 minutes total, which is about 6 more minutes.
4. KK and Ashlynn averaged 30 and 31 minutes per game. Quality subs could reduce that necessity by 7-8 minutes per game.
5, Finally, Aubrey may take until mid-season to be 100% and ready to play. Her 306 minutes are available to start the season.
6. So, as many as 90-100 minutes per game may be available. (rough estimate)

So, departing players and a deeper roster may free up 90-100 minutes for Geno and staff to use each game. That leaves Geno with two (?) starters to replace and some high quality reserves to work into the line up. Possible solutions:
1. Start Ashlynn and work Azzi slowly into a greater role, to start the season. Azzi uses 15-18 minutes initially.
2. Use Kaitlyn & KK at the point with each getting 18-22 minutes each.
3. Use Paige at the 3 spot and cut her heavy load to 28 minutes per game (from 32 min.) and work Sarah Strong between 17-20 minutes at 3 & 4.
4. Use Jana at the 5, using many (25?) of Liya's minutes. Use Ice at the 4/5 for 22 minutes. She averaged 17.5 so only have to add 4.5 minutes.
5. Caroline (at 3 and 4) and Ayanna (at 4 and 5) are quality subs, but the minutes are running out. What about Q? She averaged 12 per game.
6. Finally, what about Allie and Morgan? New but very talented...

Oh, I give up. Glad this is Geno and CD's job to figure out. Just hope everyone is healthy and fighting for game time..!!
Go Huskies..!!

Good analysis, as usual. We could argue some points but --it's an exercise and I'm lazy.
You DO recall CD in the early years keeping a running record during game of minutes played. I doubt she is up to that now.
The real pleasure is: Talent, talent, talent. My one knock is --One truly big big and no idea who or what shall fill that hole we've had for 8 years or more.
Geno did wonders last year, possibly his greatest and most productive year of coaching. However this isn't as demanding as one of your TESTS. Thanks.
no word on here about the NCAA latest money ruling???

 

[TCC Kid]

Dreaming about super deep rotations is how we pass the time in the long hot summer. It's not necessarily how NCs are won.

Bone Dog: NC's are started this time of the year and perfected in March/maybe February. I'll take 5 years like this one. This was fantastic, super great. I liked every kid on the rosters. I'm looking forward to Chen and Azzi. I just re-watched the Iowa game from last year---Fudd out scored Clark and more often. Because of Azzi Uco.nn won. If she can do that in 60 percent of her games--Uconn can't be beaten..

 

[hoophuskee]

The fact that 6’6” Rigby, a transfer who was an all-star in her former conference, was the eleventh player in and only played at the end of the games, while the other ten players were rotational, reveals how deep the rotation was that year. The other ten players I mentioned were in the rotation, Rigby was not. The roster called for that type of rotation that year.

In response to people thinking we have to have a deep rotation to succeed you challenge that and I have taken your side. When you seem to be saying that a seven player rotation or less is the ideal I take the position it depends upon the roster … and the coach for that matter. For example, from what I have seen from Hurley over a few years he appears to prefer at least eight, even when there is a drop off for the eighth. Whether he is right or you are, what he consistently puts into practice is different than the seven player rotation you often most often preach.

Whether Bueckers plays 30, 35 or 40 does not preclude a rotation of 8 or more. You could add 8 players to Bueckers getting 40 minutes with them all averaging 20 minutes. My point is not to offer a counter hypothetical, it’s to dismiss those hypotheticals entirely as besides the point regarding depth of rotation. Looking at the past, UConn women have played beautiful basketball against elite teams with rotations of 8-10. Whether he is smart to play an eighth player not yet at the same level as the first seven, Hurley seems to do pretty well for himself playing at least eight.

If you want to defend a seven player or less rotation as sufficient, then I am on your side. If you want to claim it as ideal I counter that it depends on the coach and roster. There really is not much more to discuss beyond that.

1--- I’m asking you to read post #2 in this thread again that I wrote. Point being Geno is going to play everyone in blowouts (and I have also added “in comfortable wins.). I made a comment that he will not do that in tight close games. I specifically separated them. And as a result, I do not look at how you view “rotation”vs mine because I separate a lot. So for this team Geno imo will not go 10 deep and imo he never has. That’s because I look at things as a separation of tight, big games vs other. When you suggested UCONN has gone 10 deep – it seemed implied you were speaking of 99-00 adding Paige Sauer and Stacey Hansmeyer as examples? Back to this point and relating it to our current team in a moment.

2--- But if you want me to break down what I think in tight games in the 1st month?-- PG's shared by Chen and KK and Paige. SG shared by Azzi and Ashlynn and Paige. SF Paige shared by Ashlynn and Sarah, PF Sarah shared by Ice, Jana Paige, and Ayanna. C Between Ice, Jana and Ayanna sprinkle in some Sarah. When Aubrey comes back if she is healthy she will bump either Ice or Ayanna (though I expect Ice to start the season). (Also very puzzled why you thought I feel less than 7 is ideal for this team if that is what you are implying when even post #2 on thsi thread I even said stretch to 8 is okay? Further, I even broke down minutes in big games for Paige and Azzi and Sarah – three positions – that left two positions open which I would think you would be able to easily assume at least two players for each of the other positions otherwise I would have mentioned others getting over 30 too. So that is 7 at a minimum. Not less than 7.

3--- Now in terms of “rotation” if Aubrey is able to bump someone if she does and that player no longer plays in big games, then I’m saying that is a nine player rotation Geno is using not 10. And using this same view how I look at things is that Paige Sauer and Stacy Hansmeyer were not part of a 10 player rotation in 99-00. Geno stopped using them in tight games overall. While I can’t get stats – I ask you to view the FF Penn State game on YT or Huskygames etc and with 1:58 left minuets left he puts in Paige (and Stacy and the announcer states how they accepted their roles.). In the Tenn game in Finals you can see wiht5:24 left Stcy ready to come in with a 26 point lead.

Sure they were probably regular rotation at one point—but I’m looking at what’s he doing with special emphasis at the end So, I don’t view your point of UCONN playing 10 players as part of a regular rotation in tight big games as what Geno would like to do. I feel if done it was an anomaly.

The same will happen this year more-than-likely. I cannot make my statement “absolute” but for purposes on here how often do I need to always say “imo?” And for the record I still don’t understand your point about Rigby and why you brought up her play at Santa Clara. IMO players can excel at smaller schools but struggle mightily at top 5 elite schools.

 

[Skeets]

It’s Geno’s job to field a team that can win games, not to make sure everyone is happy with their minutes. You also have to figure that there will be some minor injuries along the way, and having that deep bench is great to have.

I agree but Geno needs to keep them happy enough not to lose 3 or 4 good players, who have the potential to be very good players, to the transfer portal. None of these guys rode the pines in HS. They will not be wildly happy doing that early in their college careers. (Yes, yes minutes are earned in practice and that's on the players, not Geno. I'm sure that Geno has mentioned that to them.)

 

[oldude]

It’s Geno’s job to field a team that can win games, not to make sure everyone is happy with their minutes. You also have to figure that there will be some minor injuries along the way, and having that deep bench is great to have.

I think if you ask Geno, he would say that his job is to do everything in his power to help his players develop their potential both on and off the court. If he does that, the winning will take care of itself.

 

[oldhusky]

One reason it is so difficult to project who starts, or even who is in the rotation for the perimeter positions is how many proven candidates if healthy we have. Some point to KK and Ash being incumbent starters, but Azzi and Caroline were also incumbent starters who lost that starting position mostly due to injuries. In fact their freshmen numbers for overall performance (PER) were better than KK and Ash. Kaitlin obviously was a starter and star for Princeton with very good numbers, and of course Paige who may have been a 4 last year but should be at one of the perimeter positions this year.

So in essence we have 6 players who were starters already, competing for 3 positions at 1-3, none of whom lost their spot due to play, but rather by injuries (Azzi, Caroline) or by being moved upfront (Paige), or was a starter and star at another program (Chen). But it is more than that, because there are three other serious contenders in Allie, Morgan and Q. Allie and Morgan are high enough rated that it wouldn't be a shock at all if either was as good in their first year as any of the above players except for Paige and a healthy Azzi. Q probably outperformed her expectations and she is certainly in the mix too.

Now when we look at the 4 and 5 it is completely different. No proven returning players much less starters when the season begins. Aubrey is proven and excellent when she returns, but she won't be ready at the start, and I could even include her, and Sarah for that matter as candidates for the 3, but given the roster imbalance expect both to be used mostly upfront.

We have great talent in Sarah and Jana projected into the 4/5 starting positions, but we are very dependent on not just one, but both being very good from the start, in their first year. Further our only natural backups Ayanna and Ice had first years that were significantly below expectations IMO, and I don't think they have shown (at least yet) that they can be good backups, at least by Uconn standards which are quite high.

The contrast is stark. The floor for positions 1-3 is extremely high. Getting very good starters and backups from that group is almost a given, and we could even manage a couple of injuries and be very good. Upfront if both Sarah and Jana are the real deal, and both Ayanna and Ice make a giant leap, with Aubrey returning we could be very good there too.

But the floor for 4/5 is still pretty scary. No proven experience or depth. Now personally I believe Sarah and Jana will start and have great careers, but of course we can't expect them to be as good as they will be later in their career in the first year. My concern is more with the backups. It might happen, but I don't think their first year performance bodes well for the careers of Ayanna or Ice. Of course they should improve, but they need to improve a lot to be a good Uconn backup.

We are far more dependent on Ice making a giant leap because we don't have any other realistic options there. If Ayanna doesn't improve much, at least we have Aubrey returning at some point, and several of the perimeter candidates (Paige, Caroline, Morgan) could sub at the 4, but not the 5.

 

[Bone Dog]

I agree with @Skeets and @oldude. It’s too narrow to say Geno’s job is merely to win games, if we mean that as a narrow focus on a single season. We all know Geno also thinks in terms of building a program, and that requires a broader focus. He has to think m across several seasons. The potential he recruits for in players typically takes more than one season to develop.

Yes, it’s true that he plays to win, not to make teenagers happy with their playing time. But building a program that can develop players over 4 years is a multidimensional problem.

On the one hand, he has to recruit the sort of kids who want to be developed, who are willing to play team defense, who fit a certain team culture of sacrifice and mutual support.

On the other hand he has to actually build that culture, which means making sure practice is both challenging and rewarding so that teenagers can see the progress they’re making, can feel the satisfaction of playing as part of a great team with other great players — and part of this entails getting to experience real game pressure from time to time. Geno and CD pay careful attention to morale, body language, bench demeanor, etc.

Nobody’s saying he coddles kids to keep them from transferring out or risks losing close games merely to flatter an entitled adolescent. He challenges them, he breaks them down, he builds them up, he yells and he praises [grudgingly], he employs sarcasm and humor… in short he is a teacher and a mentor — it’s a really complex task he and CD take on each season. And one of his important tools is letting them experience real game pressures at this level so they can see where they stand. Typically this happens early in conference play and is one of the reasons the rotation shrinks as the season grinds on. In November through January playing time is distributed more widely while in February and March it is mainly limited to 7 or 8 players except in blowouts. The main task is to build a tight core that can win it all. But he and CD also have an eye on long term development.

An addendum: the key to the multidimensional problem is team defense. Geno says finding scorers is easy, but he recruits players who can score and are willing to play team defense. It’s not just because he thinks offense comes from defense. It’s also because this is where team culture is constructed. Team defense isn’t about flashy plays and glory. It’s about switching, disrupting and getting to spots more than about making a great block.

 

[oldude]

One reason it is so difficult to project who starts, or even who is in the rotation for the perimeter positions is how many proven candidates if healthy we have. Some point to KK and Ash being incumbent starters, but Azzi and Caroline were also incumbent starters who lost that starting position mostly due to injuries. In fact their freshmen numbers for overall performance (PER) were better than KK and Ash. Kaitlin obviously was a starter and star for Princeton with very good numbers, and of course Paige who may have been a 4 last year but should be at one of the perimeter positions this year.

So in essence we have 6 players who were starters already, competing for 3 positions at 1-3, none of whom lost their spot due to play, but rather by injuries (Azzi, Caroline) or by being moved upfront (Paige), or was a starter and star at another program (Chen). But it is more than that, because there are three other serious contenders in Allie, Morgan and Q. Allie and Morgan are high enough rated that it wouldn't be a shock at all if either was as good in their first year as any of the above players except for Paige and a healthy Azzi. Q probably outperformed her expectations and she is certainly in the mix too.

Now when we look at the 4 and 5 it is completely different. No proven returning players much less starters when the season begins. Aubrey is proven and excellent when she returns, but she won't be ready at the start, and I could even include her, and Sarah for that matter as candidates for the 3, but given the roster imbalance expect both to be used mostly upfront.

We have great talent in Sarah and Jana projected into the 4/5 starting positions, but we are very dependent on not just one, but both being very good from the start, in their first year. Further our only natural backups Ayanna and Ice had first years that were significantly below expectations IMO, and I don't think they have shown (at least yet) that they can be good backups, at least by Uconn standards which are quite high.

The contrast is stark. The floor for positions 1-3 is extremely high. Getting very good starters and backups from that group is almost a given, and we could even manage a couple of injuries and be very good. Upfront if both Sarah and Jana are the real deal, and both Ayanna and Ice make a giant leap, with Aubrey returning we could be very good there too.

But the floor for 4/5 is still pretty scary. No proven experience or depth. Now personally I believe Sarah and Jana will start and have great careers, but of course we can't expect them to be as good as they will be later in their career in the first year. My concern is more with the backups. It might happen, but I don't think their first year performance bodes well for the careers of Ayanna or Ice. Of course they should improve, but they need to improve a lot to be a good Uconn backup.

We are far more dependent on Ice making a giant leap because we don't have any other realistic options there. If Ayanna doesn't improve much, at least we have Aubrey returning at some point, and several of the perimeter candidates (Paige, Caroline, Morgan) could sub at the 4, but not the 5.

While I generally agree with your analysis, I would add the one caveat that Ice improved significantly from the Big East tournament throughout the Big Dance, and I believe she will be ready to start on Day 1. It is also possible that Geno will role out a 4-guard lineup at the start of the season with Paige once again at the 4.

Whether Ice can hold onto that starting spot and UConn goes to a more conventional 3-guard lineup depends on how quickly Jana & Sarah develop, as well as how quickly Aubrey heals and is able to shake off the rust.

 

[Bone Dog]

Just a word in defense of Ayanna: her defense last year was better than her offense. The sophomore leap may be delayed a little by the injury-rehab, and she may never be much of a scorer — this is harder to judge. But she looks to me like someone who could be a great defender-rebounder. I’m hopeful this is who we get to see this season. She has great quickness for a big and if she recovers that after the surgery she has some serious potential.

 

[yhun89]

Just a word in defense of Ayanna: her defense last year was better than her offense. The sophomore leap may be delayed a little by the injury-rehab, and she may never be much of a scorer — this is harder to judge. But she looks to me like someone who could be a great defender-rebounder. I’m hopeful this is who we get to see this season. She has great quickness for a big and if she recovers that after the surgery she has some serious potential.

Given the fact we were probably at an all time low in rebounding last season, we could use all the help we can get. Ayanna should be able to get 4-5 minutes maybe if her offense is a liability.

 

[Zinethar]

I keep seeing the same remarks in a lot of posts worrying that players that wind up not starting or getting serious minutes might give up and leave because they were used to starting in high school. If that were to be true then Geno has failed in what he tries to recruit - players who are team oriented and have the "husky personality". He rarely fails in this regard.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

I wouldn’t worry so much about having 5 incomers, 4 walking wounded who conservatively would become available only in January and the perceived prior injury-plagued play of certain posts.

The starting 12 tough OOC games will make Geno rattle his brains to make his available 10-player squad (Paige, KK, Ash, Q, Ice, Jana, Morgan, Allie, Sarah and Kaitlyn) work. He has done so with the 2002-03 squad (the year after TASSK graduated) — when Diana and 3 key reserves were joined by the 4-player Ann Strother class. That team started the year 12-0, including an overtime win over TN on their 12th game.

The 2024-25 10-player OOC team is better than that 2002-2003 team in that it has 4 point guards and is built to run. Morgan, it seems, has correctly intuited that she is probably most urgently needed as the 2023 Paige analog at the 4.

In a way, having the walking wounded return only in January is a blessing, forcing Geno to play (5)+5 for most games with the incomers during the OOC games. Thus, when the walking wounded return, Geno can then develop his postseason rotation from battle-tested incomers and veterans.

As far as minutes distribution, having two mini-seasons and a running game helps. Practice play development will be more intense. In addition, having a different (5)+5 in the first 12 OOC games evolving to an improved (5)+5+ ((5)+8+ in really tough games) in mid-January helps to keep all players in continuous self-improvement mode.

 

[yhun89]

I keep seeing the same remarks in a lot of posts worrying that players that wind up not starting or getting serious minutes might give up and leave because they were used to starting in high school. If that were to be true then Geno has failed in what he tries to recruit - players who are team oriented and have the "husky personality". He rarely fails in this regard.

Yeah, the class he took this year especially definitely won't transfer, unless Geno end up retiring maybe. Morgan, Allie, and Sarah are all lifelong fans, and must know that bench time is in every freshman's first year. They all understand and wanted UCONN from when they were little.

 

[Bone Dog]

In a way, having the walking wounded return only in January is a blessing, forcing Geno to play (5)+5 for most games with the incomers during the OOC games. Thus, when the walking wounded return, Geno can then develop his postseason rotation from battle-tested incomers and veterans.

I couldn't agree more. It will be a blessing for all. The new kids will get a very fulsome opportunity to find out how they measure up, and maybe even make the late season rotation. And the team will also have that feeling of being continually renewed by the return of former stars. This will be the exact opposite of last season's experience when the team must have felt like it was melting away with injuries.

 

[BobbyJ]

One reason it is so difficult to project who starts, or even who is in the rotation for the perimeter positions is how many proven candidates if healthy we have. Some point to KK and Ash being incumbent starters, but Azzi and Caroline were also incumbent starters who lost that starting position mostly due to injuries. In fact their freshmen numbers for overall performance (PER) were better than KK and Ash. Kaitlin obviously was a starter and star for Princeton with very good numbers, and of course Paige who may have been a 4 last year but should be at one of the perimeter positions this year.

So in essence we have 6 players who were starters already, competing for 3 positions at 1-3, none of whom lost their spot due to play, but rather by injuries (Azzi, Caroline) or by being moved upfront (Paige), or was a starter and star at another program (Chen). But it is more than that, because there are three other serious contenders in Allie, Morgan and Q. Allie and Morgan are high enough rated that it wouldn't be a shock at all if either was as good in their first year as any of the above players except for Paige and a healthy Azzi. Q probably outperformed her expectations and she is certainly in the mix too.

Now when we look at the 4 and 5 it is completely different. No proven returning players much less starters when the season begins. Aubrey is proven and excellent when she returns, but she won't be ready at the start, and I could even include her, and Sarah for that matter as candidates for the 3, but given the roster imbalance expect both to be used mostly upfront.

We have great talent in Sarah and Jana projected into the 4/5 starting positions, but we are very dependent on not just one, but both being very good from the start, in their first year. Further our only natural backups Ayanna and Ice had first years that were significantly below expectations IMO, and I don't think they have shown (at least yet) that they can be good backups, at least by Uconn standards which are quite high.

The contrast is stark. The floor for positions 1-3 is extremely high. Getting very good starters and backups from that group is almost a given, and we could even manage a couple of injuries and be very good. Upfront if both Sarah and Jana are the real deal, and both Ayanna and Ice make a giant leap, with Aubrey returning we could be very good there too.

But the floor for 4/5 is still pretty scary. No proven experience or depth. Now personally I believe Sarah and Jana will start and have great careers, but of course we can't expect them to be as good as they will be later in their career in the first year. My concern is more with the backups. It might happen, but I don't think their first year performance bodes well for the careers of Ayanna or Ice. Of course they should improve, but they need to improve a lot to be a good Uconn backup.

We are far more dependent on Ice making a giant leap because we don't have any other realistic options there. If Ayanna doesn't improve much, at least we have Aubrey returning at some point, and several of the perimeter candidates (Paige, Caroline, Morgan) could sub at the 4, but not the 5.

So playing well in 40 minute back to back games and making the BET AT team while helping UConn to win it when they had nobody else doesn't qualify Brady to be a good backup? Has UConn had another lousy backup do that in the past?

 

[hoophuskee]

The starting 12 tough OOC games will make Geno rattle his brains to make his available 10-player squad (Paige, KK, Ash, Q, Ice, Jana, Morgan, Allie, Sarah and Kaitlyn) work. He has done so with the 2002-03 squad (the year after TASSK graduated) — when Diana and 3 key reserves were joined by the 4-player Ann Strother class. That team started the year 12-0, including an overtime win over TN on their 12th game.

The 2024-25 10-player OOC team is better than that 2002-2003 team in that it has 4 point guards and is built to run. Morgan, it seems, has correctly intuited that she is probably most urgently needed as the 2023 Paige analog at the 4.

In a way, having the walking wounded return only in January is a blessing, forcing Geno to play (5)+5 for most games with the incomers during the OOC games. Thus, when the walking wounded return, Geno can then develop his postseason rotation from battle-tested incomers and veterans.

As far as minutes distribution, having two mini-seasons and a running game helps. Practice play development will be more intense. In addition, having a different (5)+5 in the first 12 OOC games evolving to an improved (5)+5+ ((5)+8+ in really tough games) in mid-January helps to keep all players in continuous self-improvement mode.

If he follows the path of 2002-2003 then that is what he has aways done as I've stated. Look at from Round of 32 to Finals. They had a core of 7. The other 3 were Morgan Valley, Ashley Valley, and Stacey Marron. None of the 3 saw any time in the Final Four or Finals And the other 3 game3s Morgan saw a total of 10 minutes from 32 on, Ashley saw 5, and Stacey saw 3.

Is this considered they were part of the regular rotation? In the loss to Villanova during Big East Morgan played 11 minutes (day 3 of the Big East Tourney). Their next closest game was vs Duke in this game Ashley didn't play so it was the same core 7. Morgan didn't play vs Duke but prior to that she did play vs Nova and then she played the game after St Johns. I won't go through the effort if she was starting or when she came in / how big the lead might have been --

But the way I look at this - the 2002-2003 team was a 7 player core -- stretch 8 player rotation. Not 10. . With this current team I can see that with maybe one other in big, tight games --so up to 9. -- and naturally when game is in-hand more wil come in.

By the way that game with the 12-0 season start in which UCONN beat Tenn in Ovt- Geno played 7 players.

 

[yhun89]

But the floor for 4/5 is still pretty scary. No proven experience or depth. Now personally I believe Sarah and Jana will start and have great careers, but of course we can't expect them to be as good as they will be later in their career in the first year. My concern is more with the backups. It might happen, but I don't think their first year performance bodes well for the careers of Ayanna or Ice. Of course they should improve, but they need to improve a lot to be a good Uconn backup.

Ice showed great development towards the end, what do you mean her performance didn't bode well? The beginning was rocky for sure, but she just got off of a spontaneous patella injury. There's bound to be some nerves. What matters is how she looked at the end of the season. Going almost foul-less throughout the BE tournament when Edwards was out, having near double double in one of the games, and getting 8 clutch points against USC when we needed them? Posting up against Stuelke? Not to mention her jump shot is looking better and better, and she can effectively be a stretch player in the near future. Especially if the 3 point starts clicking.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

If he follows the path of 2002-2003 then that is what he has aways done as I've stated. Look at from Round of 32 to Finals. They had a core of 7. The other 3 were Morgan Valley, Ashley Valley, and Stacey Marron. None of the 3 saw any time in the Final Four or Finals And the other 3 game3s Morgan saw a total of 10 minutes from 32 on, Ashley saw 5, and Stacey saw 3.

Is this considered they were part of the regular rotation? In the loss to Villanova during Big East Morgan played 11 minutes (day 3 of the Big East Tourney). Their next closest game was vs Duke in this game Ashley didn't play so it was the same core 7. Morgan didn't play vs Duke but prior to that she did play vs Nova and then she played the game after St Johns. I won't go through the effort if she was starting or when she came in / how big the lead might have been --

But the way I look at this - the 2002-2003 team was a 7 player core -- stretch 8 player rotation. Not 10. . With this current team I can see that with maybe one other in big, tight games --so up to 9. -- and naturally when game is in-hand more wil come in.

By the way that game with the 12-0 season start in which UCONN beat Tenn in Ovt- Geno played 7 players.

I have sort-of implied that the 2024-25 team is deeper and more talented than the 2002-03 team, most certainly by January when the walking wounded return. Plus it has 4 point guards and is built to run, which augurs for a running game which the 2002-03 team was not.

The 2002-03 team was an 11-player team with a walk-on (Stacey Marron). Nicole Wolff was a regular part of the (5)+3 rotation, before she suffered a season-ending injury on the 10th game of the season. The Valley sisters were part of the (5)+5 rotation in the easy games in the early part of the season.

I don’t think Geno had any choice in 2002-03 with a 10-player effective roster but to go with (5)+2 after Nicole Wolff went down on tougher games. He does have plenty more choices with a 14-player roster of HS highly-ranked players / FIBA All-Stars / Ivy POY, battle-tested by January, most of whom are in the 0-1 year of collegiate experience and where the running game is a potent option.

But I agree with you that in the toughest post-season games, he will tighten the rotation to possibly (5)+4 (Paige, Azzi, KK, Kaitlyn, Ash, Aubrey, Sarah, Ice, Jana).

 

[Bone Dog]

Just musing here -- is a running game (I mean a full court pressing game like tOSU two seasons ago) a viable path to an NC, or even an FF? Has such a team ever won it all?

I haven't done the research here so feel free to correct me (like you need my permission ), but I think the answer is no. It looks like a single really strong PG, like Amoore for example, can dispose of a pressing team pretty readily. Sue or Diana or Paige and maybe Kaitlyn, would suffice, I think.

I only mention this because the minutes debate seems to imply the virtue of a running game as a corollary. The more they run and the more energy they expend, the more fresh bodies they need seems to be the reasoning. I love watching quick teams play a press. But Geno hasn't designed teams like that. He uses a press here and there, and typically only a 3/4 court press, and he doesn't do this for entire games. A 3/4 press or even only a 1/2 court press can catch an opponent off guard, maybe throw them out of their game plan, sort of like a punch in the face. It's like Mike Tyson famously quipped, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face."

The beginning of the 3rd quarter is one of those moments when a sudden sharp defensive stand can shock an opponent. Check out the Tennessee game 3 seasons ago when Nika almost single-handedly turned the game into a rout in the first 5 minutes of the 3rd quarter. Or the Indiana game 2 seasons ago when Paige and company blew them away in the third quarter.

A full-court press is wonderful, but Geno's focus seems more to be on transition offense. This can come from any "live ball" turnover, whether it results from a press, a steal, even a long rebound, etc. -- and as long as someone is ready to streak down the floor Paige will find them, if she isn't herself leading the transition. A transition game isn't a press, but it can use one occasionally. One key to it seems to be not allowing post entry passes, since it's more difficult to start the transition from there. Force the opponent to shoot from outside, make sure you get the rebound or the steal, and get a quick outlet pass. And then the track meet begins. I think this is what Geno sometimes means when he says defense leads to offense.

By the way, we may not think of Ice and Caroline as transition players, but they are both very good at getting quick outlet passes going.

 

[yhun89]

Just musing here -- is a running game (I mean a full court pressing game like tOSU two seasons ago) a viable path to an NC, or even an FF? Has such a team ever won it all?

I haven't done the research here so feel free to correct me (like you need my permission ), but I think the answer is no. It looks like a single really strong PG, like Amoore for example, can dispose of a pressing team pretty readily. Sue or Diana or Paige and maybe Kaitlyn, would suffice, I think.

Kaitlyn is not a PG who can survive a press. In the NCAA tournament last season, Princeton was knocked out solely because none of them could break the WV press in the second half. Her main issue wasn't necessarily getting the ball past half court, it was more what she did after it. There were a few times she would get across half court and thro a terrible pass in an attempt to get rid of the ball. Granted, it could've been a coaching problem on where she wanted the players to arrange themselves after getting past HC, and the fact Chen seemed to be the only one dribbling the ball (there weren't many passes being made) but if we come face to face with a hard pressing team, we might want KK or PB at point. Morgan is also an option because from the looks of it, her length, speed, and handles have helped in a high pressure press in HS/All Star games.

 

[CONN78SEJ]

I think if you ask Geno, he would say that his job is to do everything in his power to help his players develop their potential both on and off the court. If he does that, the winning will take care of itself.

Baloney, Geno has stated countless times when a reporter asked him something similar to what you’re panhandling, and his response has always been that his job plain and simple “is to win ballgames”, no if’s, and’s or but’s. That is paramount for him and the team.