UConn stats... Are there enough minutes for everyone to play?

[Maleficent9]

I thought it was a 3.94 GPA or was that just for this year?

fall semester

 

[hoophuskee]

It’s not about emulating SC or anyone else! Whatever Geno ends up doing, and I think given the incredible roster he has available, no one really has any idea what he‘ll do, it will be whatever he sees as the best path to #12! I think most are assuming that he will continue/revert to his perceived default which is to determine the top 7 players and ride them as far as they can go. However, I think this roster is so full of talent and redundancy (except for Jana) and that Geno himself is such a different man/coach than he was four or five years ago, that it would not surprise me in the least to see him actually live up to his oft stated commitment to play as many players as can force their way onto the court!

That, in any case, is what I am hoping for, anyway! I would love to see him play 10-12 players on a regular basis! Will that happen? I don’t know, but if I were on this roster, I’d be working my *** off this summer so I could hopefully “force” him to give me minutes next season! It gives me goosebumps to think about the potential of this team if everyone can simply have a fully healthy year!

IMO Geno is a slave to circumstance. Which I believe is that the players determine how separated they are between starter and the bench player. For example, any big game that is tight - Paige should automatically receive at least 35+ minutes. Her separation between her sub and her level warrants at least 35 minutes. She is too explosive / too great to be pulled for 5 minutes or more.

Potentially I can see 3 other players that can possibly fall into this bucket if they are at a projected/or hyped peak. Azzi, Sarah and Jana.

In her soph year Azzi matched Clark and just earlier she smoked Vic Schaefer's Defense when he claimed no player torched his team's in such a long time in the manner Azzi did. If she is at that prime level and fully healthy, I see no reason to not give her 35 minutes. When you match Clark and you torch Vic at a level he has rarely ever been torched at, you don't have that player sit on the bench for more than 5 minutes (once health and stamina reached.).

As for Sarah and Jana-- we saw how well Juju, Hidalgo, and Booker did as a frosh. And we heard Geno speak of Jana say she would have been the #1 recruit if she was in USA. So, it is possible that either of the 2 or both have a huge impact. If both are healthy (and stamina is reached), and we're getting super elite recruits, none can produce at a high level their frosh year at UCONN but other teams can? OFC there is a good possibility one or both can. And if that were the case- player's with this type if explosion . though they are "bigs, will probably play between halfway between 30-35 minutes. (Not saying both will but one should be at least very, very, very good.).

UCONN gets #1 recruits. You're not getting potential super potential recruits just so you can have them share time. You want them to dominate. The more explosive they show to be, the more minutes you want to award them in big games due to this "any moment potential explosion" they have the ability to produce. If UCONN has just 3 of teh 4 just mentioned as "terrific" then in big games, then there won’t be a 10 player bench in tight games.

 

[JellyBean]

We can only hope that Coach Auriemma spreads the minutes around this season. But a lot will depend on the health of players, trust being players and coaching staff, confidence between players and coaching staff, and teams that we face.

 

[Bone Dog]

I hope for a deep rotation too, but mainly because I’m greedy. I want to see Azzi play two more years, Caroline too. If it’s the Paige and Azzi show this year, and Paige turns pro, what happens the following season? I want the Azzi and Caroline show and that may mean not wearing them out this season. Let it be their team to carry for one season.

And the two seasons after that? Will we have the Jana and Sarah show? That would be something. I suspect all this only happens if Geno runs a deep rotation. He has enough talent for another dynasty, an efflorescence of awesomeness at the end of his career. As Dawn has seen too, in this era a superteam has to play its youngsters alongside its veterans, just to hang on to them. What’s more, you can’t play 9 deep in April if you weren’t playing 12 or more in January.

 

[JellyBean]

I hope for a deep rotation too, but mainly because I’m greedy. I want to see Azzi play two more years, Caroline too. If it’s the Paige and Azzi show this year, and Paige turns pro, what happens the following season? I want the Azzi and Caroline show and that may mean not wearing them out this season. Let it be their team to carry for one season.

And the two seasons after that? Will we have the Jana and Sarah show? That would be something. I suspect all this only happens if Geno runs a deep rotation. He has enough talent for another dynasty, an efflorescence of awesomeness at the end of his career. As Dawn has seen too, in this era a superteam has to play its youngsters alongside its veterans, just to hang on to them. What’s more, you can’t play 9 deep in April if you weren’t playing 12 or more in January.

Well said.

 

[hoophuskee]

As Dawn has seen too, in this era a superteam has to play its youngsters alongside its veterans, just to hang on to them. What’s more, you can’t play 9 deep in April if you weren’t playing 12 or more in January.

UCONN should not try to emulate SOuth Carolina. UCONN has won 14 championships and been to a ridiculous number of final fours.

Secondly, UCONN should not be concerned about who stays and who goes. UCONN should be concerned about winning as much as you can. ALL the players came to UCONN to compete for championships. They understood minutes won't be granted just so Gneo can hold on to them for a future date. For example, UCONN "owes Paige (and all the team)" their best lineup to win a title now. Not play other players because of concern they might leave.

 

[Bone Dog]

UCONN should not try to emulate SOuth Carolina. UCONN has won 14 championships and been to a ridiculous number of final fours.

It's not about emulating anyone -- this meme is overdone. It's about building a dynasty and keeping it. Last season, Geno would have done the same thing as Dawn. Maybe she's imitating what she knows he would have done.

Also, the fans may "owe" Paige lots of joy for what she's brought, but the team and the school do not owe her, nor would she ever talk that way.

 

[hoophuskee]

It's not about emulating anyone -- this meme is overdone. It's about building a dynasty and keeping it. Last season, Geno would have done the same thing as Dawn. Maybe she's imitating what she knows he would have done.

Also, the fans may "owe" Paige lots of joy for what she's brought, but the team and the school do not owe her, nor would she ever talk that way.

No way Geno with his team would have played a deep bench if his stars were healthy in tight games. She did her style because many of her players are about the same other that Cardoso. If Geno had a healthy lineup he would have had 3 all-Americans (Azzi included.). And as we saw he had no problem not giving Ice and even Amari many minutes (i.e. not working his low post bench) because he values "play your best."

While Paige would never say anything publicly-- but this is the player that said to Geno once "You owe me minutes." And she is just as competitive as Geno. No way she would be happy knowing that her coach pulled her when he didn't have to other than very few minutes. No way the top recruits that come to UCONN don't recognize that Geno is going to play them rather than share minutes.

As stated before - South Carolina was very fortunate these past three years without their number 1 rival being healthy. All the while we saw UCONN go to FF and seconds away from finals with a core of 6/7 players with 4 freshmen. The bench points of view are overdone. That's whiy the 14 titles matter. It’s why all the Final Fours matter. In part its why number 1 recruits continue to come to UCONN as well. They know Geno is gonna give them “minutes.”

 

[Bone Dog]

While Paige would never say anything publicly-- but this is the player that said to Geno once "You owe me minutes."

I share most of your sentiments. But not this one. That quote is not a public statement of Paige’s, nor does it express any serious sentiment of hers. It’s a humorous attribution to her. I don’t know where you got this one from, but Geno has jokingly said she’s said stuff like this, for example after her first game back after her sophomore knee injury. Around the same time he also laughingly said in a presser “Of course Paige will have to compete for playing time when she comes back.” None of that was meant seriously.

In the second point, yes Geno has tended to play a shorter rotation in March. But a few of us have speculated that Geno’s style maybe ready to evolve. It’s just idle speculation, and doesn’t require to be refuted. Similarly, every year half the BY dreams of deep rotations and constant full court pressing defenses. None of this is realistic and none of it requires refuting.

But if you’re in the mood for refuting something, here’s my serious prediction for next season’s rotations

• November 10
• December 12
• January 12
• February 11
• March 10
• April 9

This would be a departure from the past few years, but not an extreme change.

 

[hoophuskee]

I share most of your sentiments. But not this one. That quote is not a public statement of Paige’s, nor does it express any serious sentiment of hers. It’s a humorous attribution to her. I don’t know where you got this one from, but Geno has jokingly said she’s said stuff like this, for example after her first game back after her sophomore knee injury. Around the same time he also laughingly said in a presser “Of course Paige will have to compete for playing time when she comes back.” None of that was meant seriously.

In the second point, yes Geno has tended to play a shorter rotation in March. But a few of us have speculated that Geno’s style maybe ready to evolve. It’s just idle speculation, and doesn’t require to be refuted. Similarly, every year half the BY dreams of deep rotations and constant full court pressing defenses. None of this is realistic and none of it requires refuting.

But if you’re in the mood for refuting something, here’s my serious prediction for next season’s rotations

• November 10
• December 12
• January 12
• February 11
• March 10
• April 9

This would be a departure from the past few years, but not an extreme change.

1-- Don’t agree with your interpretation of what Paige said l. In a way it's a joke what Paige said but in another way it highlights that the stars track their minutes and want to play. She is jokingly reminding her coach. And Paige said this in her frosh year March 17th. There are reasons why players transfer and a lot has to do with minutes. There is no way a healthy guard that is fit and the #1 recruit is not going to be happy for not playing big minutes in a big game in her upper class year when she is among the league’s best. The link to google that shows the CT Post article - anyone can click on it if they want. While Geno’s job isn’t to make everyone happy, he will coach the manner he sees fit and the short bench with superstars has been his success. Maybe if he got a team with no CBB A/A’s he would do different.

2-- I’m not too sure the speculation doesn’t require "refuting." Because Geno gets blamed on here for losses or potential losses for not playing his bench or there are frustrations with him that even spill over to recruiting too. The point is though it's not "evolving" when you sit your superstars for more than a few minutes (if you are fit guard/wing) in a tight game. Superstars control the game. They're teh big dog that you ride.

 

[Bone Dog]

1-- Don’t agree with your interpretation of what Paige said l. In a way it's a joke what Paige said but in another way it highlights that the stars track their minutes and want to play. She is jokingly reminding her coach. And Paige said this in her frosh year March 17th. There are reasons why players transfer and a lot has to do with minutes. There is no way a healthy guard that is fit and the #1 recruit is not going to be happy for not playing big minutes in a big game in her upper class year when she is among the league’s best. The link to google that shows the CT Post article - anyone can click on it if they want. While Geno’s job isn’t to make everyone happy, he will coach the manner he sees fit and the short bench with superstars has been his success. Maybe if he got a team with no CBB A/A’s he would do different.

2-- I’m not too sure the speculation doesn’t require "refuting." Because Geno gets blamed on here for losses or potential losses for not playing his bench or there are frustrations with him that even spill over to recruiting too. The point is though it's not "evolving" when you sit your superstars for more than a few minutes (if you are fit guard/wing) in a tight game. Superstars control the game. They're teh big dog that you ride.

As Pepe le Pew would say, "Le sigh."

 

[CL82]

As Pepe le Pew would say, "Le sigh."

Well, that reference is going to go whizzing over the heads of the bulk of the younger posters on the board.

It made me chuckle though.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

When all are healthy, which may be the middle of the season, IMHO the starting players will be:
PG Kaitlyn Chen
SG Azzi Fudd
W Paige Bueckers
PF Sarah Strong
C Jana El Alfy
Subs off the bench:
PG KK Arnold
SG Ashlyn Shade
SF/PF Aubrey Griffin
C Ice Brady
PF Ayanna Patterson
W Quadence Samuels
W/SG Morgan Chili
SG/W Allie Ziebel
And depending on her physical condition will be Caroline Ducharme at W/SF. She is the wild-card! If she is truly healthy she'll move up the list for more PT!
I gave them positions but once they're moving it becomes a positionless lineup! Taking what our opponents give them!
Geno will also rotate his lineups as they match up with their opponents!

 

[visitingcock]

When all are healthy, which may be the middle of the season, IMHO the starting players will be:
PG Kaitlyn Chen
SG Azzi Fudd
W Paige Bueckers
PF Sarah Strong
C Jana El Alfy
Subs off the bench:
PG KK Arnold
SG Ashlyn Shade
SF/PF Aubrey Griffin
C Ice Brady
PF Ayanna Patterson
W Quadence Samuels
W/SG Morgan Chili
SG/W Allie Ziebel
And depending on her physical condition will be Caroline Ducharme at W/SF. She is the wild-card! If she is truly healthy she'll move up the list for more PT!
I gave them positions but once they're moving it becomes a positionless lineup! Taking what our opponents give them!
Geno will also rotate his lineups as they match up with their opponents!

PG Kaitlyn Chen
SG Azzi Fudd
W Paige Bueckers
PF Sarah Strong
C Jana El Alfy
I really don't see Geno starting the season with this lineup of two untested bigs. I think Ice will have one of those spots because she has a full season in actual playing time in "the system." I could see one of those two freshmen starting and the other coming off the bench. You could be correct by mid-season.

Kaitlyn Chen starting? That will be interesting. I know she comes from a similar system and she's a solid shooter. However. I like KK's speed and she may be needed against teams with very quick pgs. KK also has "a full season in actual playing time in 'the system.'" Does one season at UConn equal three seasons at an Ivy?

But PT under Geno is earned in practice. It would be fun to watch those practices and the competition between those 5 (and others)

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

PG Kaitlyn Chen
SG Azzi Fudd
W Paige Bueckers
PF Sarah Strong
C Jana El Alfy
I really don't see Geno starting the season with this lineup of two untested bigs. I think Ice will have one of those spots because she has a full season in actual playing time in "the system." I could see one of those two freshmen starting and the other coming off the bench. You could be correct by mid-season.

Kaitlyn Chen starting? That will be interesting. I know she comes from a similar system and she's a solid shooter. However. I like KK's speed and she may be needed against teams with very quick pgs. KK also has "a full season in actual playing time in 'the system.'" Does one season at UConn equal three seasons at an Ivy?

But PT under Geno is earned in practice. It would be fun to watch those practices and the competition between those 5 (and others)

visitingcock- - In my first sentence I said,
"When all are healthy, which may be the middle of the season, IMHO the starting players will be:"
I don't think this will be the STARTING LINEUP in November!
I agree that Geno will start the girls with the most experience in his system! But by the end of January, for example, my prediction could be the starting lineup!

 

[visitingcock]

visitingcock- - In my first sentence I said,
"When all are healthy, which may be the middle of the season, IMHO the starting players will be:"
I don't think this will be the STARTING LINEUP in November!
I agree that Geno will start the girls with the most experience in his system! But by the end of January, for example, my prediction could be the starting lineup!

Sorry, I wasn't clear that I was agreeing with you in that. and just adding explanation.

 

[jdote33]

So I was watching 2019 vs South Carolina actually... Phee was sooo good. So versatile. It kinda made me a little less worried about not having a true traditional center. Phee in space was insane and I'm interested to see Jana with 4 shooters/scorers around her. I think it's just a different look when u have a super aggressive post at the 5 who can shoot and dribble drive

Like I would love to see
Paige
AZ
Azzi
Caroline
Jana

The question is, can Jana pass. I know Sarah Strong can.

 

[Cuango]

My prediction for November, I know Aubrey won’t be ready.

PG-Paige
SG-Azzi
W-Sarah
PF-Ice/Aubrey
C-Jana

 

[cferraro04]

I've done this exercise many times in the past. And a couple of few things always happen 1. Geno usually has another plan that is different than mine; 2. Certain players unexpectedly stand out in practice and Geno rewards them; 3. Someone gets hurt and doesn't play; 4. The other team presents match-up problems and Geno has to go with a different line-up; 5. In a blow-out starters sit subs play...everyone eats; 6. Any attempt at the exercise must assume that all 14 players are eligible to play as that situation poses the biggest challenge to spreading the minutes; 7. During the post-season, Geno will invariably shorten his bench.

But, it is still a good exercise to participate in because it gives a profound appreciation for how tough Geno and his staff's job is when they have a deep and talented line-up. So here goes:

Paige Bueckers..............................21
Azzi Fudd........................................21
KK Arnold.......................................13
Jana El-Alfy....................................17
Qadence Samuels.......................12
Allie Ziebel.....................................10
Ashlyn Shade................................13
Kaitlyn Chen.................................16
Sara Strong...................................17
Morgan Cheli...............................10
Ice Brady........................................17
Carolyn Ducharme.....................11
Ayanna Patterson.......................10
Aubrey Griffin..............................12
Total..............................................200

Point Guard / Shooting Guard total minutes: 94 Total available minutes at the point guard and the shooting guard = 80
Small Forward / Power Forward total minutes: 72 Total available minutes at small forward, power forward = 80
Center total minutes: 34 Total available minutes at Center = 40

Analysis: There are 14 excess minutes at point guard and shooting guard. This analysis is 8 minutes short at the small forward and the power forward position and 6 minutes short at the center. So, one or more of the guards will have to put some time in a small forward. Some of the point guards will have to give up minutes to the Power forwards and the Center positions. Or, the coaching staff will run with a 3-guard line-up or they may decide to play big...at the end of the day there are 200 minutes available and these 14 players will divvy them up among them. Some days they will play more minutes other days they will play less. The above list is simply an average over the year. Minutes will be adjusted if players miss games because of injuries.

Point Guards - Paige Bueckers, KK Arnold, Kaitlin Chen, Azzie Fudd, Allie Ziebel, Ashlynn Shade
Shooting Guards - Paige Bueckers, Azzie Fudd, Allie Ziebel, Ashlynn Shade, Morgan Chelli
Small Forwards - Paige Bueckers, Morgan Chelli, Aubrey Griffin, Qadence Samuels, Carolyn Ducharme, Sara Strong
Power Forwards - Sara Strong, Ayanna Patterson, Ice Brady, Carolyn Ducharme
Centers - Jana El-Alfy, Ice Brady, Ayanna Patterson

 

[JellyBean]

I've done this exercise many times in the past. And a couple of few things always happen 1. Geno usually has another plan that is different than mine; 2. Certain players unexpectedly stand out in practice and Geno rewards them; 3. Someone gets hurt and doesn't play; 4. The other team presents match-up problems and Geno has to go with a different line-up; 5. In a blow-out starters sit subs play...everyone eats; 6. Any attempt at the exercise must assume that all 14 players are eligible to play as that situation poses the biggest challenge to spreading the minutes; 7. During the post-season, Geno will invariably shorten his bench.

But, it is still a good exercise to participate in because it gives a profound appreciation for how tough Geno and his staff's job is when they have a deep and talented line-up. So here goes:

Paige Bueckers..............................21
Azzi Fudd........................................21
KK Arnold.......................................13
Jana El-Alfy....................................17
Qadence Samuels.......................12
Allie Ziebel.....................................10
Ashlyn Shade................................13
Kaitlyn Chen.................................16
Sara Strong...................................17
Morgan Cheli...............................10
Ice Brady........................................17
Carolyn Ducharme.....................11
Ayanna Patterson.......................10
Aubrey Griffin..............................12
Total..............................................200

Point Guard / Shooting Guard total minutes: 94 Total available minutes at the point guard and the shooting guard = 80
Small Forward / Power Forward total minutes: 72 Total available minutes at small forward, power forward = 80
Center total minutes: 34 Total available minutes at Center = 40

Analysis: There are 14 excess minutes at point guard and shooting guard. This analysis is 8 minutes short at the small forward and the power forward position and 6 minutes short at the center. So, one or more of the guards will have to put some time in a small forward. Some of the point guards will have to give up minutes to the Power forwards and the Center positions. Or, the coaching staff will run with a 3-guard line-up or they may decide to play big...at the end of the day there are 200 minutes available and these 14 players will divvy them up among them. Some days they will play more minutes other days they will play less. The above list is simply an average over the year. Minutes will be adjusted if players miss games because of injuries.

Point Guards - Paige Bueckers, KK Arnold, Kaitlin Chen, Azzie Fudd, Allie Ziebel, Ashlynn Shade
Shooting Guards - Paige Bueckers, Azzie Fudd, Allie Ziebel, Ashlynn Shade, Morgan Chelli
Small Forwards - Paige Bueckers, Morgan Chelli, Aubrey Griffin, Qadence Samuels, Carolyn Ducharme, Sara Strong
Power Forwards - Sara Strong, Ayanna Patterson, Ice Brady, Carolyn Ducharme
Centers - Jana El-Alfy, Ice Brady, Ayanna Patterson

I see you have a lot of free time. Pretty awesome breakdown.

 

[Bone Dog]

I've done this exercise many times in the past. And a couple of few things always happen 1. Geno usually has another plan that is different than mine; 2. Certain players unexpectedly stand out in practice and Geno rewards them; 3. Someone gets hurt and doesn't play; 4. The other team presents match-up problems and Geno has to go with a different line-up; 5. In a blow-out starters sit subs play...everyone eats; 6. Any attempt at the exercise must assume that all 14 players are eligible to play as that situation poses the biggest challenge to spreading the minutes; 7. During the post-season, Geno will invariably shorten his bench.

But, it is still a good exercise to participate in because it gives a profound appreciation for how tough Geno and his staff's job is when they have a deep and talented line-up. So here goes:

Paige Bueckers..............................21
Azzi Fudd........................................21
KK Arnold.......................................13
Jana El-Alfy....................................17
Qadence Samuels.......................12
Allie Ziebel.....................................10
Ashlyn Shade................................13
Kaitlyn Chen.................................16
Sara Strong...................................17
Morgan Cheli...............................10
Ice Brady........................................17
Carolyn Ducharme.....................11
Ayanna Patterson.......................10
Aubrey Griffin..............................12
Total..............................................200

Point Guard / Shooting Guard total minutes: 94 Total available minutes at the point guard and the shooting guard = 80
Small Forward / Power Forward total minutes: 72 Total available minutes at small forward, power forward = 80
Center total minutes: 34 Total available minutes at Center = 40

Analysis: There are 14 excess minutes at point guard and shooting guard. This analysis is 8 minutes short at the small forward and the power forward position and 6 minutes short at the center. So, one or more of the guards will have to put some time in a small forward. Some of the point guards will have to give up minutes to the Power forwards and the Center positions. Or, the coaching staff will run with a 3-guard line-up or they may decide to play big...at the end of the day there are 200 minutes available and these 14 players will divvy them up among them. Some days they will play more minutes other days they will play less. The above list is simply an average over the year. Minutes will be adjusted if players miss games because of injuries.

Point Guards - Paige Bueckers, KK Arnold, Kaitlin Chen, Azzie Fudd, Allie Ziebel, Ashlynn Shade
Shooting Guards - Paige Bueckers, Azzie Fudd, Allie Ziebel, Ashlynn Shade, Morgan Chelli
Small Forwards - Paige Bueckers, Morgan Chelli, Aubrey Griffin, Qadence Samuels, Carolyn Ducharme, Sara Strong
Power Forwards - Sara Strong, Ayanna Patterson, Ice Brady, Carolyn Ducharme
Centers - Jana El-Alfy, Ice Brady, Ayanna Patterson

I love your breakdown, @cferraro04 ! And a season-long average analysis makes sense to me. But I am still thinking month by month.

My breakdown would also be a little less position specific, since I expect Geno to run sets with different moving parts, like a plain vanilla 2-3, or a 4 guard set or even a 5-out set. Given the size of some his guards, this is a real possibility.

That said, I think in November-December, when not all the returners are back, we might expect average minutes something like:

Paige (25) Ash or Azzi (25) KK (20) Ice (20) Jana (20) with Sarah (15) Azzi or Ash (15) Kaitlyn (10) Morgan (10) Q (10) Caroline (10) Allie (10) = 200 minutes. Obviously, the numbers are too neat and round, but you get the picture

Come January and the possible return of Ayanna and the growing experience of the core players, I think the picture shifts to something more like this:

Paige (25) Azzi (25) KK (20) Sarah (25) Jana (25) with Ice (15) Ayanna (10) Ash (10) Kaitlyn (10) Morgan (8) Q (7) Caroline (10) Allie (10) = 200 minutes. It's just a guess about Sarah getting the start and more minutes, but it's not a reach. At this point, I imagine the rotation will still include everyone.

In February, and with the possible return of Aubrey, I wouldn't be surprised to see something like this:

Paige (30) Azzi (25) KK or Kaitlyn (20) Sarah (20) Jana (30) with Aubrey (10) Ice (10) Ayanna (10) Ash (10) Kaitlyn or KK (10) Morgan (5) Q (5) Caroline (10) Allie (5) = 200 minutes.

As you can see, I'm imagining Jana's minutes will only grow, and this clearly assumes that she impresses Geno and makes significant progress. If this doesn't happen, her minutes would probably shrink and Sarah's and Ice's would grow. It's also possible that Caroline could return stronger than I'm expecting in this forecast and might take some of Azzi's minutes, for example. You can also see that I haven't accounted for much shrinkage in the rotation, by which I mean the players in double figure minutes. In my view the rotation include all 12 healthy ones in November, only 11 in January with the return of Ayanna, in February once Aubrey returns, it would have shrunk to 10.

In March, the full distribution might look like this:

Paige (30) Azzi (30) Kaitlyn (20) Sarah (30) Jana (30) with Aubrey (15) Caroline (15) Ash (10) KK (10) Ice (5) Ayanna (5) Morgan (3) Q (4) Allie (3) = 200 minutes.

Here the rotation has shrunk to 9 players and consists mainly of seniors and the two sophomores who really proved themselves last season. I think this is the rotation Geno takes into the tournament, and it may shrink even a little more in April, if Aubrey or Caroline have a surge in the Big East tournament.

If the Final Four or the NC game is really close, I wouldn't be surprised to see Paige and Azzi play 35 mins each, for example, and KK and Kaitlyn may end up splitting 40 mins between them. If that happens, Aubrey and Caroline may soak up the rest of the available minutes after Sarah and Jana. This would be splitting the playing time among the most clutch performers Geno has available to him: Paige Azzi Aubrey Caroline and Kaitlyn may belong to this list too. And the rest would go to the most promising new kids: Sarah and Jana. It's true that Ash would lose out, and this would seem to be more likely if they're up against a very tall team. If they're not, however, Ash might see her minutes climb in the last two rounds, since she could well prove to be a very clutch performer indeed.

Obviously, games are fluid and minutes predictions are static.

 

[Skeets]

I see Ash getting twice as many minute, maybe 20 to 25, as any of the predictions thus far. Where will these minutes come from? Good question.

As others have said minutes can, and probably will, vary depending on health, time of the year, BE or OOC. One thing that will have less of an effect is matching up to the opponent. When Geno has a winning team, and I hope this is a winning team, Geno's attitude seems to be "the other team reacts to UConn, not the other way around".

 

[CL82]

I see Ash getting twice as many minute, maybe 20 to 25, as any of the predictions thus far. Where will these minutes come from? Good question.

I'm a little surprised at the lack of love for Shade in these projections. Last year Ashlynn was the third leading scorer on the team at 11 points per game behind only Paige and Aaliyah. She was third in three-point shooting percentage behind only Paige and Nika, third in free-throw percentage behind only Amari and Azzi, and fourth in overall shooting percentage behind Aaliyah, Aubrey and Paige.

She did all that as a freshman thrust into a starting role. She played with intensity and enthusiasm every minute she was in. Kind of tough to leave all that on the bench for the bulk of the game.

 

[Bone Dog]

I'm a little surprised at the lack of love for Shade in these projections. Last year Ashlynn was the third leading scorer on the team at 11 points per game behind only Paige and Aaliyah. She was third in three-point shooting percentage behind only Paige and Nika, third in free-throw percentage behind only Amari and Azzi, and fourth in overall shooting percentage behind Aaliyah, Aubrey and Paige.

She did all that as a freshman thrust into a starting role. She played with intensity and enthusiasm every minute she was in. Kind of tough to leave all that on the bench for the bulk of the game.

You’re right. It will be very tough to leave all of her production on the bench. Of all the kids since Paige, I watched more of Ash’s hs games than any other player, simply because more were available on YouTube. I really love her game, her grit, her sportsmanship, her commitment to team play and defense. I don’t envy Geno on this one, since it’s clear how much he loves her.

However, if the injured return to form in the course of the season, I don’t see an alternative. That’s the key assumption, and a second assumption is that Sarah and Jana play up to expectations. Once you make these assumptions, then it’s tough to start Ash after December. I imagine her as a key rotation player from then on who is gradually and temporarily eclipsed by returning stars. it’s tough to see her displacing a healthy Aubrey or Caroline. They would likely get more minutes than her merely because they could bring more to the team on both ends.

As a freshman, Caroline brought even more to the team after Paige was injured than Ash did last season. It’s not an exaggeration to say that she carried the team in that stretch. I can’t see sitting that Caroline down in favor of Ash. It would be a similar decision with Aubrey. Both of them bring more defensively and just as much offense… and as for rebounding … well all three of these players can be game changers in every dimension.

It will be tough indeed for Geno next season. I don’t envy him. Ash is the most interesting player to forecast for because she is the most difficult to keep on the bench. But he may just have to do it assuming a healthy roster.

 

[CL82]

As a freshman, Caroline brought even more to the team after Paige was injured than Ash did last season.

Caroline's freshman year statistics, which were her best by the way, are lower than Ashlynn's freshman statistics in each of the categories listed.

You seem to presume that everyone else will play beyond expectations yet Ashlynn will play below expectations. That's fine. It's all a guess right now, but I'm just saying the actual statistics don't support that presumption.

It fascinates me though because Ashlynn was forced into a starter spot as a freshman due to injury and was not only adequate, but excelled and was one of the more productive players on the team. Yet, she seems to be the forgotten woman by many in this thread. That's surprising to me.

Again, though, it's all speculation right now. It'll be interesting to see how it all develops. It's a good problem to have and hopefully everyone comes back 100% healthy, and stays that way, so that they all have the opportunity to compete at their best for spots.

 

[cferraro04]

Caroline's freshman year statistics, which were her best by the way, are lower than Ashlynn's freshman statistics in each of the categories listed.

You seem to presume that everyone else will play beyond expectations yet Ashlynn will play below expectations. That's fine. It's all a guess right now, but I'm just saying the actual statistics don't support that presumption.

It fascinates me though because Ashlynn was forced into a starter spot as a freshman due to injury and was not only adequate, but excelled and was one of the more productive players on the team. Yet, she seems to be the forgotten woman by many in this thread. That's surprising to me.

Again, though, it's all speculation right now. It'll be interesting to see how it all develops. It's a good problem to have and hopefully everyone comes back 100% healthy, and stays that way, so that they all have the opportunity to compete at their best for spots.

By no means is Ashlynn a forgotten woman. Her contributions this last season are duly noted and certainly appreciated by all UConn fans. We don't get to the final four without her. This year, assuming we have a full roster of healthy players will be exceptionally challenging for Geno. Based on Ash's contributions last season does she deserve to be one of the top minute getters? The simple answer is yes. But, as noted in this thread where do the minutes come from, and at whose expense?

Keep in mind that we have senior students who have contributed much-needed play when they were healthy. Geno is keenly aware of his upperclassmen and the fact that their college careers may soon be over. Aubrey and Caroline if healthy will be given their opportunities.

The same argument could be made for KK...she was thrust into a starting role and while she may have come up short on the scoring end and her three-point shot could have been a little better she was a demon on the defensive end and she played a big role in UConn getting to the final four. Where do we get minutes for her?

Azzi is probably one of the best three-point shooters in the country she has to play. If healthy everybody would agree that it will be the Paige-Azzi show next season.

After losing Aaliyah Edwards we need to fill that void so both Ice and Jana have to play. Yeah, we could go to a small line-up but Geno knows that he has to develop the posts because a small line-up won't get the job done with some teams.

Sara Strong is the number one recruit in the county and she didn't come to UConn to sit on the bench...she will play major minutes.

Ziebel and Cheli aren't your typical freshmen they will be ready to play from day one. If anyone doubts it then ask yourself if Shade and KK were ready then why wouldn't the number 7 and the number 11 recruit be ready?

Then what do you do with Kaitlin Chen...for her to decide to come to UConn someone had to outline what her expected role was going to be. It is already established that she is a tried and tested point guard who brings defense just like KK and who is a scorer and this is her last year of eligibility...oh, oh...another player who has to play.

Couldn't we make a similar argument for Qadence Samuels...we know she can shoot, we know she can play defense and she is long, and quick on offense. She was needed to give UConn something off the bench. Will she make the sophomore jump? If she does where to we get minutes for her?

If you want to talk about the "forgotten woman" look no further than Ayanna Patterson. Remember her play in her freshmen year? Yes, it was somewhat disappointing but, she was nursing injuries. She has had her surgery, she will be recovered by January and ready to play. Did anyone forget the videos of her in high school playing above the rim and dunking the basketball? What does Geno do with her?

Geno has a big problem finding minutes for all his players. There is a reason why Geno isn't aggressively pursuing the transfer wire. He knows he has a minutes problem and if he doesn't manage it correctly he could lose players next season. He doesn't want to add to the quagmire by getting another player who only has one year left and has to play.

Additionally, Geno knows that Ashlynn and KK are only sophomores. He knows that they both are about the team and understand that Geno has to put the team first. Geno, KK, and Ash know that they will get their opportunities in the post-Paige / Azzi era.

All in all, your point is well taken...but, with one exception Ash is not the "forgotten woman". Finding minutes for this amazing group of women is a daunting task but, aren't you happy that we have this problem? I think there are about 300 Division One coaches who would love to have this situation.

 

[diggerfoot]

No way Geno with his team would have played a deep bench if his stars were healthy in tight games. She did her style because many of her players are about the same other that Cardoso. If Geno had a healthy lineup he would have had 3 all-Americans (Azzi included.). And as we saw he had no problem not giving Ice and even Amari many minutes (i.e. not working his low post bench) because he values "play your best."

While Paige would never say anything publicly-- but this is the player that said to Geno once "You owe me minutes." And she is just as competitive as Geno. No way she would be happy knowing that her coach pulled her when he didn't have to other than very few minutes. No way the top recruits that come to UCONN don't recognize that Geno is going to play them rather than share minutes.

As stated before - South Carolina was very fortunate these past three years without their number 1 rival being healthy. All the while we saw UCONN go to FF and seconds away from finals with a core of 6/7 players with 4 freshmen. The bench points of view are overdone. That's whiy the 14 titles matter. It’s why all the Final Fours matter. In part its why number 1 recruits continue to come to UCONN as well. They know Geno is gonna give them “minutes.”

Not sure which post of yours to best respond, since it is the cumulative that has me wondering. But let’s start with you begging the question by saying there is no way Auriemma would play a deep bench if the stars were healthy in a tight game. This veers from the intent of discussing whether the normal rotation expands from the past injury plagued seasons due to the abundance of talent and the hope for a healthy roster.

In UConn’s most dominant seasons there were, by definition, no tight games. Also in those seasons there were deeper rotations. Indeed, even in the tight NC game of 1995 there was a rotation of 8. Not deep, but not skimpy either. Were we dominant because a deeper rotation made the stars more rested to play at peak efficiency? Or because the talent warranted a deeper rotation and there was effectively little drop off when they came in? Likely a little of both, but the evidence clearly reveals a correlation between deeper rotations and dominance.

Now even in an otherwise dominant season there yet may be one or two tight games, and in those one or two games there may be deviation from the norm of a deeper rotation during a season of dominance. Such occurred against Stanford when we only scored 12 points in the first half, but outside of that bewildering exception the team had a deep rotation that year. Again, this is what the hope and discussion was really intended to be, that the norm for next season will be a deep rotation, even if there are one or two game exceptions.

 

[CL82]

By no means is Ashlynn a forgotten woman. Her contributions this last season are duly noted and certainly appreciated by all UConn fans. We don't get to the final four without her. This year, assuming we have a full roster of healthy players will be exceptionally challenging for Geno. Based on Ash's contributions last season does she deserve to be one of the top minute getters? The simple answer is yes. But, as noted in this thread where do the minutes come from, and at whose expense?

Keep in mind that we have senior students who have contributed much-needed play when they were healthy. Geno is keenly aware of his upperclassmen and the fact that their college careers may soon be over. Aubrey and Caroline if healthy will be given their opportunities.

The same argument could be made for KK...she was thrust into a starting role and while she may have come up short on the scoring end and her three-point shot could have been a little better she was a demon on the defensive end and she played a big role in UConn getting to the final four. Where do we get minutes for her?

Azzi is probably one of the best three-point shooters in the country she has to play. If healthy everybody would agree that it will be the Paige-Azzi show next season.

After losing Aaliyah Edwards we need to fill that void so both Ice and Jana have to play. Yeah, we could go to a small line-up but Geno knows that he has to develop the posts because a small line-up won't get the job done with some teams.

Sara Strong is the number one recruit in the county and she didn't come to UConn to sit on the bench...she will play major minutes.

Ziebel and Cheli aren't your typical freshmen they will be ready to play from day one. If anyone doubts it then ask yourself if Shade and KK were ready then why wouldn't the number 7 and the number 11 recruit be ready?

Then what do you do with Kaitlin Chen...for her to decide to come to UConn someone had to outline what her expected role was going to be. It is already established that she is a tried and tested point guard who brings defense just like KK and who is a scorer and this is her last year of eligibility...oh, oh...another player who has to play.

Couldn't we make a similar argument for Qadence Samuels...we know she can shoot, we know she can play defense and she is long, and quick on offense. She was needed to give UConn something off the bench. Will she make the sophomore jump? If she does where to we get minutes for her?

If you want to talk about the "forgotten woman" look no further than Ayanna Patterson. Remember her play in her freshmen year? Yes, it was somewhat disappointing but, she was nursing injuries. She has had her surgery, she will be recovered by January and ready to play. Did anyone forget the videos of her in high school playing above the rim and dunking the basketball? What does Geno do with her?

Geno has a big problem finding minutes for all his players. There is a reason why Geno isn't aggressively pursuing the transfer wire. He knows he has a minutes problem and if he doesn't manage it correctly he could lose players next season. He doesn't want to add to the quagmire by getting another player who only has one year left and has to play.

Additionally, Geno knows that Ashlynn and KK are only sophomores. He knows that they both are about the team and understand that Geno has to put the team first. Geno, KK, and Ash know that they will get their opportunities in the post-Paige / Azzi era.

All in all, your point is well taken...but, with one exception Ash is not the "forgotten woman". Finding minutes for this amazing group of women is a daunting task but, aren't you happy that we have this problem? I think there are about 300 Division One coaches who would love to have this situation.

Oh, as I noted above I agree it's a good problem to have.

For what it's worth Azzi, at her best, is a phenomenal three-point shooter. Ashlynn's three-point shooting percentage last year was higher than Azzi's two of the three years Azzi has played here. That is in no way intended to diminish Azzi, rather it's another way to point out how well Ashlynn played last season.

Again, though, it'll sort itself out.

 

[Bone Dog]

Caroline's freshman year statistics, which were her best by the way, are lower than Ashlynn's freshman statistics in each of the categories listed.

You seem to presume that everyone else will play beyond expectations yet Ashlynn will play below expectations. That's fine. It's all a guess right now, but I'm just saying the actual statistics don't support that presumption.

It fascinates me though because Ashlynn was forced into a starter spot as a freshman due to injury and was not only adequate, but excelled and was one of the more productive players on the team. Yet, she seems to be the forgotten woman by many in this thread. That's surprising to me.

Again, though, it's all speculation right now. It'll be interesting to see how it all develops. It's a good problem to have and hopefully everyone comes back 100% healthy, and stays that way, so that they all have the opportunity to compete at their best for spots.

I don't disagree. The stats don't entirely support my reading. However, I absolutely presume that everyone will play to, not beyond, expectations. I'm assuming a sophomore leap for everyone including Ash. What else can one do in the summer? I refuse to assume the worst.

For example, as I said, Caroline carried the team in January of 2022. After that stretch, she faded due to injuries, mainly an aggravated hip injury that kept her out of many games and limited her minutes in others. This is the Caroline I'm forecasting will return. There's plenty of room to disagree with my assessment of Caroline, and especially my focusing on this brief stretch -- one month essentially -- in her freshman year that she hasn't been healthy enough to reproduce since.

However, when it comes to Aubrey, "the actual statistics" do support the presumption that she can bring more to the team than Ash did last season... if we confine ourselves to the 22-23 season. This is in addition to the notorious eyeball test in that Aubrey was one of the primary triggers for the transition game. What about the following season? Why not focus on that one, too? Aubrey's numbers dropped even before the injury. But I'm inclined to attribute that to Geno's already focusing on getting the freshman into the mix early in the season. The cascade of bad injury news had already claimed Azzi Ayanna and Caroline. But I assume that if Aubrey had not suffered an injury, she would have loomed much larger January-March.

But should we restrict our statistical sample to that one season for Aubrey, or to that one month of her freshman year for Caroline? This is a totally fair question. All I can say is that if neither of them lives up to the standards they set for their play in the past, I'll be thrilled to see Ash get a lot more minutes... assuming she can beat out Morgan and Allie for playing time.

To speak in the absolutes we're so fond of in the BY, in theory a healthy Caroline could be an AA candidate and Aubrey could be the Sixth Woman of the Year. Sadly, in reality Caroline has never been able to put together an entire season playing at that clip, and Aubrey may not be able to recover her magic or find the superhero cape she seemed to wear so often in that season. If she can't, I hope Ash finds her own cape.

 

[BobbyJ]

You’re right. It will be very tough to leave all of her production on the bench. Of all the kids since Paige, I watched more of Ash’s hs games than any other player, simply because more were available on YouTube. I really love her game, her grit, her sportsmanship, her commitment to team play and defense. I don’t envy Geno on this one, since it’s clear how much he loves her.

However, if the injured return to form in the course of the season, I don’t see an alternative. That’s the key assumption, and a second assumption is that Sarah and Jana play up to expectations. Once you make these assumptions, then it’s tough to start Ash after December. I imagine her as a key rotation player from then on who is gradually and temporarily eclipsed by returning stars. it’s tough to see her displacing a healthy Aubrey or Caroline. They would likely get more minutes than her merely because they could bring more to the team on both ends.

As a freshman, Caroline brought even more to the team after Paige was injured than Ash did last season. It’s not an exaggeration to say that she carried the team in that stretch. I can’t see sitting that Caroline down in favor of Ash. It would be a similar decision with Aubrey. Both of them bring more defensively and just as much offense… and as for rebounding … well all three of these players can be game changers in every dimension.

It will be tough indeed for Geno next season. I don’t envy him. Ash is the most interesting player to forecast for because she is the most difficult to keep on the bench. But he may just have to do it assuming a healthy roster.

I see no path for Ducharme to play ahead of Shade. Not only is Shade valuable on offense but she is more than adequate on defense and could stay on the floor for 35+ minutes if needed plus she is now trusted by Auriemma to do that. Between slowness and foul trouble, Ducharme is a defensive liability and wouldn't be able to stay out there more than 10-15 minutes.