UConn President: Fall sports likely to be cancelled

[brasssbonanzaa]

Less deadly in what context? People killed or the chance that you'll die if you get it? Because social distancing prevented the first one and the second one is basically impossible to know...

I don't 100% agree with his point, but there's increasing research showing many, many more people have already had this virus. Preliminary studies of residents in the Bay Area and LA County indicate as much as 5% of the population already developed antibodies. The studies indicate the infection rate would be as much as 80X the confirmed rate shown by testing.

That doesn't necessarily mean they're immune and can go run wild outside. What it does suggest is the denominator of the death rate and hospitalization rate is very different. This also suggests some deaths that occurred in the weeks leading up to lockdowns that were attributed to the flu or otherwise may have been Covid-related.

What this doesn't mean is the virus isn't deadly, is the same thing as the flu, yada yada this is all a giant overreaction let's all go back to football stadiums right now.

Coronavirus spread: Number of people infected by COVID-19 may be 50-80 times higher than official count, Stanford study suggests

"Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what's known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health," said Stanford professor Dr. Eran Bendavid.

abc7news.com

Hundreds of thousands in L.A. County may have been infected with coronavirus, study finds

Hundreds of thousands of L.A. County residents may have been infected with the coronavirus by early April, outpacing total of known cases, report says.

www.latimes.com

 

[JimHurley]

Less deadly in what context? People killed or the chance that you'll die if you get it? Because social distancing prevented the first one and the second one is basically impossible to know...

A very recent Stanford study shows that the actual infection rate could be 50-85x the number of confirmed cases. This would imply the number of mild/asymptomatic cases are much higher and the death rate is much lower. I can find the study if you’d like to check it out

 

[tzznandrew]

March death totals barely incorporate social distancing. Since death totals are a lagging indicator and significant social distancing measures weren't broadly implemented in the US until the last week of March (if at all), March death totals largely reflect no social distancing measures.

I'm talking about in the hospitals, right now. My sister's a nurse. One of my best friends is a nurse. During social distancing. What they're witnessing is a ******** nightmare.

 

[Guapo]

Also, to the smooth brains who think colleges are going to figure out how to play but pro sports can't figure it out are delusional, figured I'd called that out explicitly since you may have missed it in my first post.

muh sports

 

[superjohn]

Less deadly in what context? People killed or the chance that you'll die if you get it? Because social distancing prevented the first one and the second one is basically impossible to know...

Less deadly than original estimates without us going into lockdown and social distancing. Imperial College London originally said 2.2 million Americans could die, a NY Times study put the worst case scenario at 7 million American deaths. Social distancing and lockdowns has helped mitigate the loss of life but I think we overestimated how deadly the virus is. I think studies with tested populations show us community spread is way bigger than was previously thought.

 

[8893]

I continue to be amazed at the breadth and range of topics in which @superjohn is able to become expert.

 

[upstater]

Correct. Denmark and South Korea reacted very well to this outbreak. But what I’m saying is that no country could have been prepared for this. Sure, some have reacted very well. But there’s no way we could’ve had a safety net in place for an event like this. What we are doing is injecting trillions and trillions of dollars into the economy, to businesses, and towards unemployment. We are doing a lot whether it looks like it at the surface or not. These trillions go straight to the national debt, which WILL be our downfall one day. We can’t just keep injecting more and more money without consequences, keep that in mind.

At this point, the discussion can only continue in cesspool land so I will bow out

 

[Guapo]

Someone send this thread to a sociologist to study.

It’ll be a good document for future generations to review when they wonder “how did so many people die?”

 

[JimHurley]

Someone send this thread to a sociologist to study.

It’ll be a good document for future generations to review when they wonder “how did so many people die?”

Take this quote from the CNN article:

"There is also a real danger that more people could potentially die from the economic impact of Covid-19 than from the virus itself."

We can’t act like we should continue lockdowns at any cost and that there aren’t consequences of them. I’m also gonna bow out now because this is shortly heading to the cesspool. Look what ya started Prez Tom

 

[Stainmaster]

Don’t act like we should continue lockdowns at any cost and that there aren’t consequences of them.

I guess your student manager source forgot to clue you in that strawman arguments don't work.

 

[superjohn]

I continue to be amazed at the breadth and range of topics in which @superjohn is able to become expert.

I prefer reading about and discussing this virus and our gov't response to it than talking about lobster rolls, peloton bikes, and what pizza I ate.

 

[ctchamps]

It's a statistic if it's one of them or theirs. It's a tragedy if it's one of us or ours.

I'm not sure a vaccine is the only saving grace for all of us. Natural immunity from getting the disease would be just as beneficial. Of course we would have to know what percentage of the population has antibodies and how long those antibodies confer immunity. That is why it's imperative to find reliable serological tests and mass test. Until we have that information or a vaccination the best course of action from a medical standpoint is social isolation.

Germany is now past the mitigation phase of the pandemic and now is in the containment phase. South Korea was even more prepared and has always been in the containment phase. These countries can relax confinement. They will certainly have reoccurrences of the disease but they have the systems in place to minimize the impacts of those reoccurrences.

The United States is at the other end of the spectrum. We probably have had one of the worst responses to the disease of any developed wealthy country. Thank goodness for the Brits. We are still in the mitigation phase, aren't even close to having adequate testing and haven't begun a coordinated containment strategy never mind begun to develop resources for containment.

We already have surpassed the death estimates of all but two influenza seasons in the past decade. Some states like NY and NJ probably have had more penetration of the disease and therefore likely more natural immunity than others. But I would be surprised if that penetration rate was above 20%. It's a guess of course but do the math for fatality numbers and hospitalizations if that assumption is close.

We are flicged any way you look at things. We have no choice but to open things up prematurely. It won't be long before the numbers flip with Americans insisting on this. I just think the economy arguers should factor in the economic health costs in totaling economic numbers. They certainly will offset to a substantial degree the economic benefits.

From a humanitarian side there is no argument. Anybody want to guess what our health care workers will do if this pandemic stays plateaued or spikes again in a short amount of time. What will be the mortality numbers if a lot of them leave? What will be the response of Americans in that situation?

 

[polycom]

Less deadly than original estimates without us going into lockdown and social distancing. Imperial College London originally said 2.2 million Americans could die, a NY Times study put the worst case scenario at 7 million American deaths. Social distancing and lockdowns has helped mitigate the loss of life but I think we overestimated how deadly the virus is. I think studies with tested populations show us community spread is way bigger than was previously thought.

So social distancing help, but also the virus isn’t as deadly as we thought yet every country around the world has been willing to bankrupt their economies to stop this from happening? So who is wrong? Someone has to be wrong.

 

[mussels]

[

So, his clarification says "current thinking" and then goes on to say this isn't based on inside information or based on any discussions.

So, what did he base his "current thinking" on for his comments? Given his back track it's pretty close to him literally only being able to talk to himself about the situation. Just an awkward backtrack. Which is entirely normal.

I noticed that too. A reference to "current thinking" that apparently doesn't involve anyone else, only makes sense when referring to oneself in the third person.

And we know who does that. Katsouleas=Chief

 

[8893]

I prefer reading about and discussing this virus and our gov't response to it than talking about lobster rolls, peloton bikes, and what pizza I ate.

The secret of life is enjoying the passing of time, so I guess we're both accomplishing that end. Cheers!

I do note that your "discussions" often suggest expertise that you clearly don't have, and you frequently use that new-found "little bit of knowledge" in a potentially dangerous way because you are constantly lambasting people who have spent their entire professional lives dealing with things that you just started reading about a month ago. You always try to advance a hot take with certainty, apparently so that you can claim you called it from the start.

It's like @DogMania 's tagline: If you say enough things, you're bound to be right once in a while.

Two weeks ago you were railing against Fauci for being reluctant to endorse widespread use of hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID 19 because you had heard of some success among people you knew and other anecdotal evidence. How is that turning out? You've criticized him and everyone else for doing both too little and too much. You criticize all the politicians for the same with respect to economic aid and plans. These are all the people who are dealing with the problems; what are you doing? You are making concrete statements and conclusions about death rates and infection rates when we won't have remotely reliable data about that for years. You are claiming that half the states are purposely under-reporting deaths and the other half is over-reporting them for the same reason. How do you have better data from which to make definitive statements?

I realize that you have occasionally had some good inside information on our basketball program over the years and I've given you credit when it's due. I think you're out of your depth here and it irks me to see you playing Goldilocks with the efforts people are making to find real solutions to real problems with this virus. I know it's frustrating to everyone that things are so uncertain and there is so much we don't control, but I don't think it makes it any better to take that frustration out on the people trying to solve the problems and claim that they are all wrong, misleading, lying, etc.. Surely some are, but over time, it just sounds like a baby stomping his feet because he's upset. To me. If you are that upset, do something about it. Because that's what people who can do.

Me, I'll have another pizza, thanks.

 

[freescooter]

I think fans should be emotionally preparing themselves for the non-zero possibility of fall sports getting cancelled.

Unless of course you’re some “DONT TREAD ON ME” fanatic in which case you can probably get ready to suit up and get on the court/field yourself in a few months.

LOL. Well on Fox News the other night Hannity described how to go to a ball game in ppe. Somehow he was going to open his mask for just a second to bite a hotdog close it to chew then was it down with beer through a straw. It was a fine demonstration of how unserious his analysis is. Even though he tried to present it as a real proposal. LOL!

 

[superjohn]

So social distancing help, but also the virus isn’t as deadly as we thought yet every country around the world has been willing to bankrupt their economies to stop this from happening? So who is wrong? Someone has to be wrong.

Not sure what your question is?

With more we're learning about the virus, community spread, when it spread etc. I don't think there's any way 7 million or 2.2 million Americans would die without lockdowns. I don't think any doctors or scientists would stand by those projections anymore, at least I haven't read about any.

If you're asking if I think the US and the majority of Western Europe has handled this well. No, I don't.

 

[superjohn]

The secret of life is enjoying the passing of time, so I guess we're both accomplishing that end. Cheers!

I do note that your "discussions" often suggest expertise that you clearly don't have, and you frequently use that new-found "little bit of knowledge" in a potentially dangerous way because you are constantly lambasting people who have spent their entire professional lives dealing with things that you just started reading about a month ago. You always try to advance a hot take with certainty, apparently so that you can claim you called it from the start.

It's like @DogMania 's tagline: If you say enough things, you're bound to be right once in a while.

Two weeks ago you were railing against Fauci for being reluctant to endorse widespread use of hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID 19 because you had heard of some success among people you knew and other anecdotal evidence. How is that turning out? You've criticized him and everyone else for doing both too little and too much. You criticize all the politicians for the same with respect to economic aid and plans. These are all the people who are dealing with the problems; what are you doing? You are making concrete statements and conclusions about death rates and infection rates when we won't have remotely reliable data about that for years. You are claiming that half the states are purposely under-reporting deaths and the other half is over-reporting them for the same reason. How do you have better data from which to make definitive statements?

I realize that you have occasionally had some good inside information on our basketball program over the years and I've given you credit when it's due. I think you're out of your depth here and it irks me to see you playing Goldilocks with the efforts people are making to find real solutions to real problems with this virus. I know it's frustrating to everyone that things are so uncertain and there is so much we don't control, but I don't think it makes it any better to take that frustration out on the people trying to solve the problems and claim that they are all wrong, misleading, lying, etc.. Surely some are, but over time, it just sounds like a baby stomping his feet because he's upset. To me. If you are that upset, do something about it. Because that's what people who can do.

Me, I'll have another pizza, thanks.

I'm lambasting people who have worked their whole lives on coronavirus? Board memebers?

What I say on a message board is dangerous? I'm gonna go with our president saying we're gonna go from 15 cases to around 0 cases as a little more dangerous. I'm gonna go with our head of infectious diseases saying we should be more worried about the flu than coronavirus as a little more dangerous.

I had no idea you thought so highly of me. Who knew I could be affecting public health on a basketball message board...

 

[polycom]

Not sure what your question is?

With more we're learning about the virus, community spread, when it spread etc. I don't think there's any way 7 million or 2.2 million Americans would die without lockdowns. I don't think any doctors or scientists would stand by those projections anymore, at least I haven't read about any.

If you're asking if I think the US and the majority of Western Europe has handled this well. No, I don't.

So you are arguing that social distancing didn’t help then if you think that millions of people wouldn’t have died. You are in fact smarter than the doctors and scientists. Thank you Superwelch for your great service to this society.

 

[superjohn]

So you are arguing that social distancing didn’t help then if you think that millions of people wouldn’t have died. You are in fact smarter than the doctors and scientists. Thank you Superwelch for your great service to this society.

What? This makes no sense. I never argued social distancing doesn't help, you hump. I said the exact opposite.

I said doctors revised their early estimates saying without social distancing we still would never have the millions of deaths they projected for Americans.

 

[Guapo]

So many of the dumb arguments on here require you to completely ignore the fact that a Korean War-equivalent number of deaths have happened in a few short weeks as well as the freezer trucks lined up outside of NYC hospitals.

(Along with the opinion and thoughts of nearly all medical and public-health professionals)

 

[huskymedic]

I’m thinking these demographics might hit close to home for more than a few folks on here based on previous posts looking for medical advise here


(I chose this tweet only because of the breakout - not because of the source tweet.)

 

[tzznandrew]

So many of the dumb arguments on here require you to completely ignore the fact that a Korean War-equivalent number of deaths have happened in a few short weeks as well as the freezer trucks lined up outside of NYC hospitals.

(Along with the opinion and thoughts of nearly all medical and public-health professionals)

There's the death toll that's given as Covid deaths, and then there's the fact that, in March (not April, so not peak) there was an anomalous upsurge in deaths--thousands!--everywhere in the world not attributed directly to Covid but obviously related. Hospitals may "get through this," but in places at peak--a peak lowered significantly by weeks of social distancing--it's a disaster area in hospitals. And we aren't even sure people can't catch it twice.

 

[mussels]

Curious.

Does anyone on the board think that the current social distancing restrictions are sustainable, or advisable until a vaccine is developed, distributed, and widely administered ?

 

[Peacefrog]

88.1% mortality rate if you go on a ventilator, wow, that's pretty sobering. My wife's friend's young-ish daughter who is a healthcare worker got the virus, it progressed very rapidly and she had to be put on a ventilator. Things continued to worsen and they had to take her off the ventilator and put her on an ecmo machine. Absolute last resort. Earlier this week she was discharged from the hospital. She is apparently one of just 10 people in the world to be put on the ecmo and survive.