Level of competition is meaningless for nfl scouts come draft time. They will look at film, then he would go to workouts.
Joly leaves, probably for some NIL, but more so for the experience of a program. It isn’t for nfl reasons. He can do that here.
1. The whole purpose of scouting is to determine if a player can play against better competition in the NFL. You don't think successfully playing against better competition in college shows that they have a higher probability of successful play against better competition in the NFL? The entire process is to see how your skill transfers to better competition.
2. There are plenty of teams that outright say this is a major factor in their drafting.
3. If teams drafted without that consideration, then the G5 and below would be flooded with a lot more talent. A few years ago there wasn't NIL and so don't blame that, it was the same then and talent did not flood down or go G5 out of high school in large numbers. Why weren't great players flooding into the G5?
4. You have literally a PRIME example of this in Shedeur Sanders. Kid had all the experience in crushing it at a lower level, all the exposure someone needed, but it was only when he balled out against real competition, which I would mention is actually his worst year statistically, that he was really starting to be considered a top QB draft pick.
5. Better level of competition also means better level of coaching in general. Not only are the players on your team and the ones you play against better, the coaches on your team and the ones you play against are. You develop with better coaching and play against more complex schemes where playing ability is tested.
It's easy to name a hundred reasons why playing well on a P4 team is better for your draft stock, but in the end the market tells the truth and it did even without NIL.