UConn-Kentucky Pregame Analysis

[HuskyNan]

From doggydaddy

 

[EricLA]

I tend to agree - a 20 point win, maybe more. I hate to make predictions like that, but I think Maryland and Kentucky would be a really close game. Was not impressed with Kentucky's close win over Delaware. And not only was Maryland the best of all the 4 seeds, but they should have been a high 3 seed. The committee did them a real disservice this year. My point is I think Maryland is as good as Kentucky, and we beat Maryland by 26 today.

I think a lot depends on how healthy Stef is. Not only was she less than 100% before the game, but she got banged up twice, once looked really bad and had the fans worried. It could be a problem for Stef as she was never "fast" to begin with, and if the game is too uptempo, it could be an issue.

 

[wire chief]

Posterior positioning...positive payoff

 

[OneTrickPony]

We should have a comfortable win...Kentucky won't get close to the offensive rebounds they took down against the Blue Hens...and without that I think Delaware wins that game. I am concerned about Stef playing a lot in this game...I'd much rather see Kiah Stokes see some major minutes if we need another big post...

 

[wire chief]

Nice thought, pony, but a player who sees just 4 minutes vs Md isn't a good bet.

 

[connboy77]

doggy, Another excellent analysis! The injuries to Stef and KML worry me, but I still think you are right, UCONN should still win by double digits.

 

[OneTrickPony]

Nice thought, pony, but a player who sees just 4 minutes vs Md isn't a good bet.

You are no doubt correct, but I'm less worried about Stallworth and Walker than I was about DeVaughn, Hawkins and Thomas...and a lot less than I am about having a gimpy Stef if we go farther...let's hope we can put them away early and get her some rest...

 

[JoePgh]

Kiah obviously didn't do much in her 4 minutes on Saturday afternoon, but I wouldn't draw a lot of conclusions from that. As CD The Elder has observed, Kiah can run like a deer, and certainly she and Breanna can jump much higher than any of the Wildcats. For those reasons, as well as Stef's current physical issues, Kentucky may be a game where Kiah can really excel.

UConn probably doesn't need a lot of jump shooting from the center position against Kentucky, and not necessarily even a lot of passing and assists. The half-court offense should not be a problem if the guards can protect the ball, and I think Kelly / Bria / Moriah can do that, based on Saturday's performance (single-digit turnovers against Maryland).

 

[JoePgh]

Visual Impressions of Kentucky After Watching the Ky-Del Game Live:

Maybe it would be useful to complement the primarily stat-based analysis in this thread with impressions from watching Kentucky play live against Delaware. Here are my main observations:

1. To my great surprise, Kentucky relied almost entirely on jump shots in its half-court offense. Given their well-deserved reputation as a small/fast team, I expected to see much more driving and penetration in the style of Tiffany Hayes and (lately) Moriah Jefferson. But I don't recall any occasions on Saturday where they drove for a layup in their half-court offense. That may possibly be because they were avoiding EDD, viewing her as an obstacle similar to Brittney Griner for offensive strategies which rely on driving layups. If that is the case, then Breanna should give them similar nightmares. But I suspect that is just their style, and if so, that certainly makes it easier to defend them.

2. Given their reliance in jump shots, I didn't think they were overly accurate, although Jennifer O'Neill certainly needs to be guarded at the 3-point line. The implication is that if turnovers can be kept at a normal level, UConn should certainly prevail in any battle of half-court offenses.

3. I didn't see any designed offense in the paint -- that was possibly because Stallworth was limited by foul trouble. Their half-court offense really did look one-dimensional (repeating myself, I realize).

4. Because of their constant overplaying in half-court defense, there should be many backdoors left wide open, as well as penetration opportunities. If Bria / Kelly / Moriah can beat their guard and head for the basket, UConn's bigs should be wide open for passses after the defense gets distorted by that.

4. Really, the only way UConn can lose the game (and the only way Kentucky can even stay in the game, as far as I can see) is if the guards lose their minds and start turning it over time after time. That has happened before (see past years' games against Georgetown, including the Sweet 16 game in Philadelphia which UConn almost lost). However, the freshmen weren't rattled today by Maryland's physicality, so hopefully they (not to mention Bria / Caroline / Kelly / KML) won't be rattled by Kentucky's ballhawking.

5. This probably implies the following theorem: the more minutes Caroline logs, the more trouble UConn is in. If a turnover streak begins and panic is setting in, I would expect Geno to call on Caroline and Kelly to put an end to it. They should be able to do that, but hopefully it won't be necessary.

 

[Bestiarius]

Even in her hobbled state, to me, Stef was quite effective in the Maryland game. It seemed she slowed the game down just a bit, to the benefit of the team's penchant for turnovers. Less of a hebephrenic atmosphere, more solid efficiency.

 

[OneTrickPony]

Even in her hobbled state, to me, Stef was quite effective in the Maryland game. It seemed she slowed the game down just a bit, to the benefit of the team's penchant for turnovers. Less of a hebephrenic atmosphere, more solid efficiency.

I'm awarding this word of the day after checking to ensure no religious prejudices were at play...

 

[Bestiarius]

I'm awarding this word of the day after checking to ensure no religious prejudices were at play...

Upping the literariness of the Boneyard, one word at a time.

 

[Mattydog]

From doggydaddy

Nice work DD. I like MoJeff to break the press.

 

[katiecrum1992]

You are no doubt correct, but I'm less worried about Stallworth and Walker than I was about DeVaughn, Hawkins and Thomas...and a lot less than I am about having a gimpy Steph if we go farther...let's hope we can put them away early and get her some rest...

IMO Stallworth is really their only post, they're much more guard-oriented. If our guards play like they did yesterday, we should do fine.

 

[chrissaran]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. If Stef is hurting like she was yesterday, it will impact the Huskies. I agree UConn wins. However, not by twenty, by ten. Kentucky has a freshman who can shoot the three and open up the court. Whoever guards her needs to stick to her like glue. We haven't been the best at defending the three this year.

 

[HuskyNan]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. If Stef is hurting like she was yesterday, it will impact the Huskies. I agree UConn wins. However, not by twenty, by ten. Kentucky has a freshman who can shoot the three and open up the court. Whoever guards her needs to stick to her like glue. We haven't been the best at defending the three this year.

How will O'Neill shoot with Kelly Faris in her face?

 

[doggydaddy]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. If Stef is hurting like she was yesterday, it will impact the Huskies. I agree UConn wins. However, not by twenty, by ten. Kentucky has a freshman who can shoot the three and open up the court. Whoever guards her needs to stick to her like glue. We haven't been the best at defending the three this year.

Uconn has been fine defending the three. They had a two game aberration against penn state and Colgate, I believe, where they gave up something like 15-29. Otherwise, they are around 27% on three point defense.

O'neill is a RS sophomore, not a freshman. And she shoots around 35% on 3's. Good, but not great.

Yes, you do have to guard her. I'm sure they will.

 

[Kibitzer]

How will O'Neill shoot with Kelly Faris in her face?

I would expect that Kelly would focus on Mathies and Bria/Moriah on Jennifer O'Neill who, by the way, seems a bit shorter and a tad quicker than when she performed in "Summer of '42."

 

[speedoo]

I would expect that Kelly would focus on Mathies and Bria/Moriah on Jennifer O'Neill who, by the way, seems a bit shorter and a tad quicker than when she performed in "Summer of '42."

I agree. DD, did Kelly guard Mathies last year?

 

[wire chief]

I would expect that Kelly would focus on Mathies and Bria/Moriah on Jennifer O'Neill who, by the way, seems a bit shorter and a tad quicker than when she performed in "Summer of '42."

But was she as alluring?

 

[Tonyc]

Well I was off by a couple of point in the MD prediction. UConn 84-57. UK didnt get inside much on UD. They wont either againest UConn. This could get ugly in the first half and be almost over before half time. UConn 88 UK 53.

 

[Husky68]

With Doty as Uconn's only PG I'm not worried, hope she practiced well so she earns some playingtime from Geno. With Hartley as the 1st guard off the bench, not worried at all about pressure, I'm sure she won't walk, dribble at shoulder height or run into a defender and lose the ball leading to a break away layup - who would do that after 3 years of training under Geno.
Looking for a triple double from Dolson.

 

[semper]

MoJeff is the key, and she needs to have great game for us. She is faster than anyone on the UK team, and quickness is their trademark. I think MoT is crucial too, to make up for Stef's physical condition.

 

[msf22b]

With Doty as Uconn's only PG I'm not worried, hope she practiced well so she earns some playingtime from Geno. With Hartley as the 1st guard off the bench, not worried at all about pressure, I'm sure she won't walk, dribble at shoulder height or run into a defender and lose the ball leading to a break away layup - who would do that after 3 years of training under Geno.
Looking for a triple double from Dolson.

Somehow, I have a different sense of humor

 

[RadyLady]

I'm awarding this word of the day after checking to ensure no religious prejudices were at play...

Upping the literariness of the Boneyard, one word at a time.

I actually had no idea what this meant. Headed straight to websters I did.....