UConn Football o/u 3.5 wins for the Season. Thoughts?

[Nostical]

Our offense will be better and we'll score more points. Any doubters? Our run D will be sound and active. Any doubters? Our weakest links are pass defense and the kicking game. Any disagreement? This team will build their confidence in the HC game. The key game of the year will be USF. Flowers is an active QB but killed us more with his legs than his arm. We suffered so many positional breakdowns last year on D it was an embarrassment. I'm saying we will be better prepared for Flowers and every opponent and react better during in game adjustments. I also feel several of our young players will break out. Our O line will be much better. And yes we will return punts.
This is a team with low expectations by Vegas and the media, the easy win on our opponents schedule. I say we will shock a lot of those teams. This is a quality coaching staff. It may be as good as we've had. Especially so with a more experienced Edsall at the helm willing to give Lashlee the autonomy he wouldn't give Moorehead. Is it a sure thing? Of course not and things will have to fall into place along the way, but I'm betting the "over 3.5" with confidence.

 

[Duncan Idaho]

This offense is CLEARLY more pro-active than that mess we had for the past 3 seasons...We might've been the only FBS school who's offense played bend but don't break with a lead... I still don't get why we never attacked the D when we clearly should've... Go back to the Maine game, the Navy game, then the Mizzou game... not so much Mizzou.. We shoulda just kicked the doggone FG... I'm goin with minimum 5 wins with this squad Edsall has assembled. That nonsense Diaco put together... gimme a break....

Agree 100%. just hoping for good execution from the O. Concerned about the injuries to the D. Been reading up on the 335 stack and some on coach Crocker. Looking forward to the opening game.

 

[ktuck911]

If we can hit the QB more often in the 3-3-5 D (unlike that passive D we used) I think we'll be OK...

 

[ktuck911]

This team will build their confidence in the HC game.

Agreed 100% last year when we went up against Maine, we shoulda kicked them all over the field... What did we do? We played to their level. Edsall, unlike Diaco understands that you beat the team you're supposed to beat, and soundly... No messing around...

 

[junglehusky]

3.5 seems about right. Realistic = 3-4 wins, pessimistic = 2 wins, optimistic = 5 wins.

 

[RSTuthill]

The only time I bet is when we take the ladies to Saratoga, and only then to stave off intense boredom. I always lose as I know nothing about horses. It's $50-$100 built into the sunk cost of the trip that I do not get excited about as it is fully anticipated. The only irritant is that my wife knows even less about horses and she sometimes wins.

That said, the over-under for UConn FB appears to be set correctly for a completely neutral betting landscape. But at +140 that would make it an attractive bet that I would think would draw a lot of money from CT on the over. That is an assessment of 1 chance in 2.4 or 42% for 4 wins or more, right? So the rest of the country thinks that UConn will really really suck and they are looking down their noses at the Huskies -- as they always have. So good for the Huskies fans, an opportunity to exploit historic attitudes. The most interesting thing about this line for me will be to see if it moves and which way it moves prior to the HC game.

 

[PPKChamp]

The board is the perfect example of head vs heart. Some are speaking from their head (Whaler) others from the heart (too many to pick one) my heart says take the over, we have to be better than 3.5 games, after all we have been through damn it, we deserve to have a good year! My head says, where %k do we find all enough those wins. I agree with Wing U, HC, Temple and ECU are wins but I think Mizzu is the keystone to winning the bet.

 

[RSTuthill]

Agreed 100% last year when we went up against Maine, we shoulda kicked them all over the field... What did we do? We played to their level. Edsall, unlike Diaco understands that you beat the team you're supposed to beat, and soundly... No messing around...

Don't think Disco was messing around with Maine. UConn was simply very poorly coached. Disco woulda given his left uno what to have won 55-0.

 

[UConnDan97]

Heading in to year three of the PP disaster I thought everything would come together for a 9 win season. Lol I'm dumb.

Oh yeah?

Well I thought we were going to go undefeated that year and I'm the smartest guy in the room...

 

[whaler11]

The board is the perfect example of head vs heart. Some are speaking from their head (Whaler) others from the heart (too many to pick one) my heart says take the over, we have to be better than 3.5 games, after all we have been through damn it, we deserve to have a good year! My head says, where *****%k do we find all enough those wins. I agree with Wing U, HC, Temple and ECU are wins but I think Mizzu is the keystone to winning the bet.

I'm not even talking from MY head. I'm just pointing out what a highly efficient market thinks of the win total.

If one thinks Bank Of America stock is worth $50 and the market trades it at $24.50... maybe one should consider that?

 

[TheDrifter75]

I stand with Dan. All wins.

 

[Waquoit]

I'd take the over +140. They should be a tough out at home.

 

[metsfan2323]

If Pindell is the real deal we might get 4 wins in September.

I'm no expert, but I just watched the "2016 valley of the sun bowl" on Youtube and Pindell looks like the real deal to me. Very instinctive, great feel for the pass rush, and can throw accurately on the run. I think we got ourselves a heck of a QB. Crank the hype machine up to 11.

 

[sportsart]

Watch the first drive of the game. You will like what you see.

 

[huskymedic]

Watch the first drive of the game. You will like what you see.

New LB Santana Sterling is #7 for MCC

 

[uconnbill]

Yeah such negativity.

The market of people who invest real time and money are betting against UConn winning 4 games.

So we get a dozen people in a row saying that's crazy they will win 5 games minimum.

The same threads happen every year and it's the same posts - they will go over easy blah hlah blah. Then that doesn't happen and we rinse and repeat.

You and the other posters don't know more than the market. If over 3.5 is +140 - guess what there is a real reason no matter what you think.

So what, honestly so what. I forget the "so-called" experts are never wrong. I'll bet you they win over 3.5 and I'll put a $100 dollars on it.
So put your money where your negative attitude is.

 

[whaler11]

So what, honestly so what. I forget the "so-called" experts are never wrong. I'll bet you they win over 3.5 and I'll put a $100 dollars on it.
So put your money where your negative attitude is.

'So what?'

It's fine if you want to be a blindly optimistic - but really why would you want to be willfully ignorant?

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Interesting people aren't really giving us a chance vs UVA. Mendenhal had success with 28 yr old virgins and we beat them last year. Year two with privileged secessionists I think we still get them. Another year where 3 of the more winable games on our schedule our "P5"

 

[uconnric]

Agree 100%. just hoping for good execution from the O. Concerned about the injuries to the D. Been reading up on the 335 stack and some on coach Crocker. Looking forward to the opening game.

I think that this is a difficult team to predict. If Pindell is the answer at qb, we may be looking at 6 wins. Lots of questions to be answered on offense, but I expect the line to be better and qb has been upgraded. I'm optimistic and thankful for the coaching change. Kudos to ad Dave.

 

[polycom]

I'll be hammering the over on this if my book has this line.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

The argument isn't that 4 wins is unattainable. The betting line at 3.5 pretty much cements that fact.

I think we can get there - but people that know a lot more than me think its pretty much even money at best, that we don't.

You could look at the season prediction threads every year since the Fiesta Bowl when these over/unders come out and 90% of the board has the same take. They are undervaluing us. When has that actually been the case since Edsall left?

I don't gamble - but to me - putting a bet on a JUCO QB, a new (though competent) staff, the oline, the loss of our two biggest offensive/defensive playmakers (Thomas/Obi) and a thin defense, wouldn't be a no brainer.

I love Edsall, but I'm strongly in the wait and see camp, although with an optimistic attitude due to HCREv1.0 tenure.

 

[CTMike]

The argument isn't that 4 wins is unattainable. The betting line at 3.5 pretty much cements that fact.

I think we can get there - but people that know a lot more than me think its pretty much even money at best, that we don't.

You could look at the season prediction threads every year since the Fiesta Bowl when these over/unders come out and 90% of the board has the same take. They are undervaluing us. When has that actually been the case since Edsall left?

I don't gamble - but to me - putting a bet on a JUCO QB, a new (though competent) staff, the oline, the loss of our two biggest offensive/defensive playmakers (Thomas/Obi) and a thin defense, wouldn't be a no brainer.

I love Edsall, but I'm strongly in the wait and see camp, although with an optimistic attitude due to HCREv1.0 tenure.

Damn dude we don't need this negativity.

 

[blue93]

The argument isn't that 4 wins is unattainable. The betting line at 3.5 pretty much cements that fact.

I think we can get there - but people that know a lot more than me think its pretty much even money at best, that we don't.

You could look at the season prediction threads every year since the Fiesta Bowl when these over/unders come out and 90% of the board has the same take. They are undervaluing us. When has that actually been the case since Edsall left?

I don't gamble - but to me - putting a bet on a JUCO QB, a new (though competent) staff, the oline, the loss of our two biggest offensive/defensive playmakers (Thomas/Obi) and a thin defense, wouldn't be a no brainer.

I love Edsall, but I'm strongly in the wait and see camp, although with an optimistic attitude due to HCREv1.0 tenure.

I already bet the over, but this is the right way to look at it. I like our chances of getting to 4, but I really wouldn't be shocked if we don't get there considering the question marks you mentioned.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Ultimately whether we get to 3 or 4 wins is inconsequential to me in the long run.

As I said with the Diaco era, I was more concerned about how the team looked and how they were prepared. With Diaco that lasted all of 1 game with the idiotic 2 QB system. Starting Starter QB and Red Zone Back-Up Starter.

I can rest assured Randy will not pull that stunt.

 

[freescooter]

If you want to compare RE 2.0 to the stupid twins and Dicko, be my guest.

Last year's team was really a 5 win team but, well, you know.

One less win with a highly competent coach staff should not be a problem.

Last year was 6-7 win team. Not 5. Navy UCF ECU maybe Syracuse were all winnable with competent coaching. Not Bill Belechek. Merely competent.