UConn Football o/u 3.5 wins for the Season. Thoughts?

[uconnphil2016]

Yeah such negativity.

The market of people who invest real time and money are betting against UConn winning 4 games.

So we get a dozen people in a row saying that's crazy they will win 5 games minimum.

The same threads happen every year and it's the same posts - they will go over easy blah hlah blah. Then that doesn't happen and we rinse and repeat.

You and the other posters don't know more than the market. If over 3.5 is +140 - guess what there is a real reason no matter what you think.

Usually I get what you're saying when it comes to Vegas money vs board perception, but exactly how accurate can a Vegas line be in a year where we have an entirely new coaching staff and a new QB? We won't win less than three games, and given the number of variables involved we could win more and I wouldn't be terribly surprised. I'm not expecting to go bowling at all, but it's not like a four win season is that ridiculous of an idea. There's precedent from UCF that an abysmal team can quickly turn into a 6 win team in this conference if infused with competent quarterback play

 

[HawkHusky]

Yeah such negativity.

The market of people who invest real time and money are betting against UConn winning 4 games.

So we get a dozen people in a row saying that's crazy they will win 5 games minimum.

The same threads happen every year and it's the same posts - they will go over easy blah hlah blah. Then that doesn't happen and we rinse and repeat.

You and the other posters don't know more than the market. If over 3.5 is +140 - guess what there is a real reason no matter what you think.

Care to wager then? If UCONN goes under 3.5, I'll permanently ban myself from this board. If they go over, you do the same. It's such an obvious, easy decision. Are you in, Nostradamus?

 

[whaler11]

Care to wager then? If UCONN goes under 3.5, I'll permanently ban myself from this board. If they go over, you do the same. It's such an obvious, easy decision. Are you in, Nostradamus?

What in the hell is wrong with you?

I am not taking a position in this thread over or under 3.5 wins.

I'm saying that if the market says over 3.5 is +140 you should probably think a bit what that means before declaring 5 wins minimum.

OMG noticing the market is SO NEGATIVE!?!?!? It's the opposite of being Nostradamus you moran - I'm looking to others to inform the probability of outcomes.

It's +140 why don't you go drop a max bet everywhere they will take your wager and make 5 figures instead of worrying about me?

 

[whaler11]

Usually I get what you're saying when it comes to Vegas money vs board perception, but exactly how accurate can a Vegas line be in a year where we have an entirely new coaching staff and a new QB? We won't win less than three games, and given the number of variables involved we could win more and I wouldn't be terribly surprised. I'm not expecting to go bowling at all, but it's not like a four win season is that ridiculous of an idea. There's precedent from UCF that an abysmal team can quickly turn into a 6 win team in this conference if infused with competent quarterback play

Well if the season win total is 3.5 is the market saying that 4 wins is a ridiculous idea?

Why would board perception be any more accurate than it usually is - which was my initial point when the entire board agrees on something it's always wrong.

 

[sportsart]

Yeah such negativity.

The market of people who invest real time and money are betting against UConn winning 4 games.

So we get a dozen people in a row saying that's crazy they will win 5 games minimum.

The same threads happen every year and it's the same posts - they will go over easy blah hlah blah. Then that doesn't happen and we rinse and repeat.

You and the other posters don't know more than the market. If over 3.5 is +140 - guess what there is a real reason no matter what you think.

Isn't Mayweather -550 and the bets coming in for McGregor are something like 27 for every 1 bet for

Well if the season win total is 3.5 is the market saying that 4 wins is a ridiculous idea?

Why would board perception be any more accurate than it usually is - which was my initial point when the entire board agrees on something it's always wrong.

A +140 is such a strong predictor that 4 wins is rediculous? I'd say betting on McGregor when Mayweather is -550 is rediculous, though last time I looked for every 1 bet on Mayweather there were 27 bets on McGregor.

Go figure.

 

[whaler11]

Isn't Mayweather -550 and the bets coming in for McGregor are something like 27 for every 1 bet for


A +140 is such a strong predictor that 4 wins is rediculous? I'd say betting on McGregor when Mayweather is -550 is rediculous, though last time I looked for every 1 bet on Mayweather there were 27 bets on McGregor.

Go figure.

Who in the world said that 4 wins is ridiculous?

Where in the world does that even come from?

What in the world does the number of bets on each side of an unrelated boxing match matter?

The market says there is about a 58% chance they don't win 4 games. That you've made up it's ridiculous they win 4 or more (~42% chance based on the line) I don't know what to tell you.

There is a chance they win 12. It's very small. There is a chance they win 0. It's also very small.

If y'all think you are smarter than the markets then you shouldn't have day jobs.

 

[uconnphil2016]

Well if the season win total is 3.5 is the market saying that 4 wins is a ridiculous idea?

Why would board perception be any more accurate than it usually is - which was my initial point when the entire board agrees on something it's always wrong.

I dont think board perception is necessarily more accurate--folks saying at least 6 wins are wrong IMO. Vegas could be equally inaccurate this year, and if there's a year for them to be wrong it's this one considering the slew of variables coming into the season

 

[whaler11]

I dont think board perception is necessarily more accurate--folks saying at least 6 wins are wrong IMO. Vegas could be equally inaccurate this year, and if there's a year for them to be wrong it's this one considering the slew of variables coming into the season

Nah that's not how it works.

 

[gwhuskyfan]

SouthPoint in Vegas has it at 3. So if you think 3 is the floor - at least you'd get a push betting there

 

[uconnphil2016]

Nah that's not how it works.

How is that not how predictions work? You think a prediction on a team returning 90% of its starters is just as likely to be accurate as a team with a new coaching staff and quarterback after the team won three games the previous year after having given up half way through the season? Really? And you think predictions are equally likely to be accurate with top tier P5 teams and obscure G6 teams?

 

[UConnTrumbull]

My luck:
If I actually bet the over, we'll win 2-3.
If I don't bet, or bet the under, we'll win 4-6.
So I'll just keep my cash to myself.

 

[whaler11]

How is that not how predictions work? You think a prediction on a team returning 90% of its starters is just as likely to be accurate as a team with a new coaching staff and quarterback after the team won three games the previous year after having given up half way through the season? Really? And you think predictions are equally likely to be accurate with top tier P5 teams and obscure G6 teams?

The market has been hammering the lines for months. These aren't 'predictions'.

 

[CTMike]

It's almost comical how knee-jerk people are to Whaler posts. Facts are facts guys... we haven't been good the last 6 years. We have a new staff and wildly new schemes. That's why the line is 3.5, not Whaler's perceived negativity.

You can say "we'll definitely be over!" but - no one really knows, and you'd have to make a lot of positive assumptions to get there (no injuries, no flukey losses, OL holds, scheme is mastered quickly, etc).

I think we'll be over 3.5 but I admit that's just blind homerism, not based on any empirical evidence. I thought Diaco wouldn't completely poop the bed either, look where that prediction went... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Jimdish255]

The line is completely reasonable based on history. On the other hand it cannot predict the performance of a new staff and new players in key positions. Probably a lot of us have been gradually been worn down by our recent mediocrity/insanity and dont want to get burned again by expecting a significant turnaround. I happen to be high on the new staff and the OL and Pindell and position changes to the point where 5 wins seems like a reasonable expectation in the AAC plus Holy Cross and maybe a bonus OOC upset along the way. But the main reason is the autonomy I see HCRE giving his coordinators. I think it can be a recipe for success in a shorter time frame.

 

[lavuuk153]

It's almost comical how knee-jerk people are to Whaler posts. Facts are facts guys... we haven't been good the last 6 years. We have a new staff and wildly new schemes. That's why the line is 3.5, not Whaler's perceived negativity.

You can say "we'll definitely be over!" but - no one really knows, and you'd have to make a lot of positive assumptions to get there (no injuries, no flukey losses, OL holds, scheme is mastered quickly, etc).

I think we'll be over 3.5 but I admit that's just blind homerism, not based on any empirical evidence. I thought Diaco wouldn't completely poop the bed either, look where that prediction went... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I actually feel pretty confident in 4 wins only because I saw how bad diaco was and he got 3. That doesn't meant it's a guarantee but I think coaching matters most in football and Edsall, while not a world beater, is worth at least another win or two for me.

I'm also an idiot that upgraded my season tickets to chair backs when diaco was hired because I liked it and then doubled down and moved up a section this off season so...

 

[Exit 4]

I could see us winning six games... but then I look at the schedule and struggle to find three wins. I'm challenged in this exercise by the fact it seems virtually no other AAC schools are in a down cycle accept for maybe Temple.

 

[Duncan Idaho]

And the people who back their opinions with real money totally disagree with y'all.

You guys are completely ignoring the issues on defense. It's single ply office bathroom thin.

If this offense doesn't click enough, the D will be back on the field in a hurry and often.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

I feel like 4+ should be easy then I look at the schedule and I'm not sure I see 4 wins.

 

[ktuck911]

If this offense doesn't click enough, the D will be back on the field in a hurry and often.

This offense is CLEARLY more pro-active than that mess we had for the past 3 seasons...We might've been the only FBS school who's offense played bend but don't break with a lead... I still don't get why we never attacked the D when we clearly should've... Go back to the Maine game, the Navy game, then the Mizzou game... not so much Mizzou.. We shoulda just kicked the doggone FG... I'm goin with minimum 5 wins with this squad Edsall has assembled. That nonsense Diaco put together... gimme a break....

 

[Nostical]

Nostradamus?

I think my mother named me after him.

 

[CTMike]

Heading in to year three of the PP disaster I thought everything would come together for a 9 win season. Lol I'm dumb.

 

[uconndogs]

Heading in to year three of the PP disaster I thought everything would come together for a 9 win season. Lol I'm dumb.

If you look at the defense P had in his second year you will cry. How that team didn't at least end up in a bowl is amazing.

 

[CL82]

Here's the thing. It's not 4, 5, or 6 wins, generically. It is w/l on 12 (13?) specific games. So go done the list and pick your wins.

HC
ECU

Then who? BCU? Okay it hasn't happened, yet but okay.

Who is number 4? Virginia? They'll be better this year, but okay.

Now how confident are you in each one of those wins? See any other wins on the schedule? If not one WTF game costs you.

In my opinion 3.5 is the right line.

 

[BlueMAB]

Then I guess we'll be competitive in a lot of high scoring games. And even if we lose them, this season will be a helluva lot more entertaining. Don't ignore that issue.

We don't know how many points we'll be able to put up, but whether or not we're entertaining has nothing to do with whaler's point. He's only talking about wins.

I happen to think he's wrong this time. I get his point, but I think we can get 4-5 wins. Not because Vegas didn't do their homework, but because they get things wrong from time to time too.

 

[BlueMAB]

Holy Cross
Temple
Missouri
East Carolina