UConn Football o/u 3.5 wins for the Season. Thoughts? | Page 2 | The Boneyard

UConn Football o/u 3.5 wins for the Season. Thoughts?

sportsart said:
Isn't Mayweather -550 and the bets coming in for McGregor are something like 27 for every 1 bet for


A +140 is such a strong predictor that 4 wins is rediculous? I'd say betting on McGregor when Mayweather is -550 is rediculous, though last time I looked for every 1 bet on Mayweather there were 27 bets on McGregor.

Go figure.
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Who in the world said that 4 wins is ridiculous?

Where in the world does that even come from?

What in the world does the number of bets on each side of an unrelated boxing match matter?

The market says there is about a 58% chance they don't win 4 games. That you've made up it's ridiculous they win 4 or more (~42% chance based on the line) I don't know what to tell you.

There is a chance they win 12. It's very small. There is a chance they win 0. It's also very small.

If y'all think you are smarter than the markets then you shouldn't have day jobs.
 
whaler11 said:
Well if the season win total is 3.5 is the market saying that 4 wins is a ridiculous idea?

Why would board perception be any more accurate than it usually is - which was my initial point when the entire board agrees on something it's always wrong.
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I dont think board perception is necessarily more accurate--folks saying at least 6 wins are wrong IMO. Vegas could be equally inaccurate this year, and if there's a year for them to be wrong it's this one considering the slew of variables coming into the season
 
uconnphil2016 said:
I dont think board perception is necessarily more accurate--folks saying at least 6 wins are wrong IMO. Vegas could be equally inaccurate this year, and if there's a year for them to be wrong it's this one considering the slew of variables coming into the season
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Nah that's not how it works.
 
SouthPoint in Vegas has it at 3. So if you think 3 is the floor - at least you'd get a push betting there
 
whaler11 said:
Nah that's not how it works.
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How is that not how predictions work? You think a prediction on a team returning 90% of its starters is just as likely to be accurate as a team with a new coaching staff and quarterback after the team won three games the previous year after having given up half way through the season? Really? And you think predictions are equally likely to be accurate with top tier P5 teams and obscure G6 teams?
 
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uconnphil2016 said:
How is that not how predictions work? You think a prediction on a team returning 90% of its starters is just as likely to be accurate as a team with a new coaching staff and quarterback after the team won three games the previous year after having given up half way through the season? Really? And you think predictions are equally likely to be accurate with top tier P5 teams and obscure G6 teams?
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The market has been hammering the lines for months. These aren't 'predictions'.
 
It's almost comical how knee-jerk people are to Whaler posts. Facts are facts guys... we haven't been good the last 6 years. We have a new staff and wildly new schemes. That's why the line is 3.5, not Whaler's perceived negativity.

You can say "we'll definitely be over!" but - no one really knows, and you'd have to make a lot of positive assumptions to get there (no injuries, no flukey losses, OL holds, scheme is mastered quickly, etc).

I think we'll be over 3.5 but I admit that's just blind homerism, not based on any empirical evidence. I thought Diaco wouldn't completely poop the bed either, look where that prediction went... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
The line is completely reasonable based on history. On the other hand it cannot predict the performance of a new staff and new players in key positions. Probably a lot of us have been gradually been worn down by our recent mediocrity/insanity and dont want to get burned again by expecting a significant turnaround. I happen to be high on the new staff and the OL and Pindell and position changes to the point where 5 wins seems like a reasonable expectation in the AAC plus Holy Cross and maybe a bonus OOC upset along the way. But the main reason is the autonomy I see HCRE giving his coordinators. I think it can be a recipe for success in a shorter time frame.
 
CTMike said:
It's almost comical how knee-jerk people are to Whaler posts. Facts are facts guys... we haven't been good the last 6 years. We have a new staff and wildly new schemes. That's why the line is 3.5, not Whaler's perceived negativity.

You can say "we'll definitely be over!" but - no one really knows, and you'd have to make a lot of positive assumptions to get there (no injuries, no flukey losses, OL holds, scheme is mastered quickly, etc).

I think we'll be over 3.5 but I admit that's just blind homerism, not based on any empirical evidence. I thought Diaco wouldn't completely poop the bed either, look where that prediction went... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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I actually feel pretty confident in 4 wins only because I saw how bad diaco was and he got 3. That doesn't meant it's a guarantee but I think coaching matters most in football and Edsall, while not a world beater, is worth at least another win or two for me.

I'm also an idiot that upgraded my season tickets to chair backs when diaco was hired because I liked it and then doubled down and moved up a section this off season so...
 
I could see us winning six games... but then I look at the schedule and struggle to find three wins. I'm challenged in this exercise by the fact it seems virtually no other AAC schools are in a down cycle accept for maybe Temple.
 
whaler11 said:
And the people who back their opinions with real money totally disagree with y'all.

You guys are completely ignoring the issues on defense. It's single ply office bathroom thin.
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If this offense doesn't click enough, the D will be back on the field in a hurry and often.
 
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Duncan Idaho said:
If this offense doesn't click enough, the D will be back on the field in a hurry and often.
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This offense is CLEARLY more pro-active than that mess we had for the past 3 seasons...We might've been the only FBS school who's offense played bend but don't break with a lead... I still don't get why we never attacked the D when we clearly should've... Go back to the Maine game, the Navy game, then the Mizzou game... not so much Mizzou.. We shoulda just kicked the doggone FG... I'm goin with minimum 5 wins with this squad Edsall has assembled. That nonsense Diaco put together... gimme a break....
 
Heading in to year three of the PP disaster I thought everything would come together for a 9 win season. Lol I'm dumb.
 
CTMike said:
Heading in to year three of the PP disaster I thought everything would come together for a 9 win season. Lol I'm dumb.
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If you look at the defense P had in his second year you will cry. How that team didn't at least end up in a bowl is amazing.
 
Here's the thing. It's not 4, 5, or 6 wins, generically. It is w/l on 12 (13?) specific games. So go done the list and pick your wins.

HC
ECU

Then who? BCU? Okay it hasn't happened, yet but okay.

Who is number 4? Virginia? They'll be better this year, but okay.

Now how confident are you in each one of those wins? See any other wins on the schedule? If not one WTF game costs you.

In my opinion 3.5 is the right line.
 
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HawkHusky said:
Then I guess we'll be competitive in a lot of high scoring games. And even if we lose them, this season will be a helluva lot more entertaining. Don't ignore that issue.
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We don't know how many points we'll be able to put up, but whether or not we're entertaining has nothing to do with whaler's point. He's only talking about wins.

I happen to think he's wrong this time. I get his point, but I think we can get 4-5 wins. Not because Vegas didn't do their homework, but because they get things wrong from time to time too.
 
Our offense will be better and we'll score more points. Any doubters? Our run D will be sound and active. Any doubters? Our weakest links are pass defense and the kicking game. Any disagreement? This team will build their confidence in the HC game. The key game of the year will be USF. Flowers is an active QB but killed us more with his legs than his arm. We suffered so many positional breakdowns last year on D it was an embarrassment. I'm saying we will be better prepared for Flowers and every opponent and react better during in game adjustments. I also feel several of our young players will break out. Our O line will be much better. And yes we will return punts.
This is a team with low expectations by Vegas and the media, the easy win on our opponents schedule. I say we will shock a lot of those teams. This is a quality coaching staff. It may be as good as we've had. Especially so with a more experienced Edsall at the helm willing to give Lashlee the autonomy he wouldn't give Moorehead. Is it a sure thing? Of course not and things will have to fall into place along the way, but I'm betting the "over 3.5" with confidence.
 
ktuck911 said:
This offense is CLEARLY more pro-active than that mess we had for the past 3 seasons...We might've been the only FBS school who's offense played bend but don't break with a lead... I still don't get why we never attacked the D when we clearly should've... Go back to the Maine game, the Navy game, then the Mizzou game... not so much Mizzou.. We shoulda just kicked the doggone FG... I'm goin with minimum 5 wins with this squad Edsall has assembled. That nonsense Diaco put together... gimme a break....
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Agree 100%. just hoping for good execution from the O. Concerned about the injuries to the D. Been reading up on the 335 stack and some on coach Crocker. Looking forward to the opening game.
 
If we can hit the QB more often in the 3-3-5 D (unlike that passive D we used) I think we'll be OK...
 
Nostical said:
This team will build their confidence in the HC game.
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Agreed 100% last year when we went up against Maine, we shoulda kicked them all over the field... What did we do? We played to their level. Edsall, unlike Diaco understands that you beat the team you're supposed to beat, and soundly... No messing around...
 
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The only time I bet is when we take the ladies to Saratoga, and only then to stave off intense boredom. I always lose as I know nothing about horses. It's $50-$100 built into the sunk cost of the trip that I do not get excited about as it is fully anticipated. The only irritant is that my wife knows even less about horses and she sometimes wins.

That said, the over-under for UConn FB appears to be set correctly for a completely neutral betting landscape. But at +140 that would make it an attractive bet that I would think would draw a lot of money from CT on the over. That is an assessment of 1 chance in 2.4 or 42% for 4 wins or more, right? So the rest of the country thinks that UConn will really really suck and they are looking down their noses at the Huskies -- as they always have. So good for the Huskies fans, an opportunity to exploit historic attitudes. The most interesting thing about this line for me will be to see if it moves and which way it moves prior to the HC game.
 
The board is the perfect example of head vs heart. Some are speaking from their head (Whaler) others from the heart (too many to pick one) my heart says take the over, we have to be better than 3.5 games, after all we have been through damn it, we deserve to have a good year! My head says, where %k do we find all enough those wins. I agree with Wing U, HC, Temple and ECU are wins but I think Mizzu is the keystone to winning the bet.
 
ktuck911 said:
Agreed 100% last year when we went up against Maine, we shoulda kicked them all over the field... What did we do? We played to their level. Edsall, unlike Diaco understands that you beat the team you're supposed to beat, and soundly... No messing around...
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Don't think Disco was messing around with Maine. UConn was simply very poorly coached. Disco woulda given his left uno what to have won 55-0.
 
PPKChamp said:
The board is the perfect example of head vs heart. Some are speaking from their head (Whaler) others from the heart (too many to pick one) my heart says take the over, we have to be better than 3.5 games, after all we have been through damn it, we deserve to have a good year! My head says, where *****%k do we find all enough those wins. I agree with Wing U, HC, Temple and ECU are wins but I think Mizzu is the keystone to winning the bet.
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I'm not even talking from MY head. I'm just pointing out what a highly efficient market thinks of the win total.

If one thinks Bank Of America stock is worth $50 and the market trades it at $24.50... maybe one should consider that?
 
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