doggydaddy
Grampysorus Rex
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
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Overview – It’s the early season game we have all been waiting for. Baylor has shown that they deserve their number one ranking with their excellent games against ND and Tennessee. There isn’t a better 1-2 (not position number) punch in the game than Griner and Sims. They also play terrific defense as with Griner to cover for them when beaten by their man, the Baylor defenders can afford to play more aggressively. There has been some inconsistency with their other post players, Williams and Pope, but their potential is unmistakable. UConn this year has shown that they can play without Moore and play at a very high level. What is yet to be determined is how they can play on the road under duress. The game against Stanford showed this team has some mettle, but this is going to be a tough environment.
Players lost – Uconn – Moore and Dixon. Baylor- Jones.
Clearly UConn has lost more than Baylor from last years club, but don't underestimate the loss of Jones. She was the emotional leader and she did have 14 rebounds from the guard spot last year.
For purposes of this analysis, I’m going to put Pope in the starting lineup. I’m not sure that Mulkey will put her back on the bench after her nice start against St. Johns. For players on the bench, I usually go with players that play in the tougher games. Against ND, Tennessee and St. Johns, Baylor played Agbuke only 2 total minutes and Roberson only 12 (all in the St. Johns game as Condrey was out). So I’m only going to show two bench players here.
PG – Doty 5’10” (7.3 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 2.2 apg) vs Sims 5’9” (17.7 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 7.2 apg)
Doty seems to be coming around. She seems more confident in what she is doing and is now leading the team in 3pt percentage at 45%. He defense is surprisingly good so far, looking comfortable with her knee. But I don’t expect her to cover Sims the entire game if at all. Sims has played like the best point guard in the country for most of this year. She struggled against St. Johns after getting two 1st half fouls and it seemed to put her off her game. I don’t expect that to happen in this game. She is as tough as nails.
Advantage Baylor
SG – Hartley 5’9” (13.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 4.1 apg) vs Hayden 5’11” (8.9 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.1 apg)
As stated above, I don’t expect Doty to cover Sims much. I think this will fall on Hartley’s lap for the most part. Hartley has been in a little shooting slump, but maybe memories of her clutch shooting last year will get her out of it. Hayden is a terrific player, but her offense is very inconsistent. From easttexastrash, our Baylor fan visitor – “Hayden is long and fast like Madden and is really good at overplaying the passing lanes from the PG to the wing and gets her share of steals from that. However, she is just a train-wreck on offense, driving wildly to the basket and throwing up crazy shots or charging.” Even so, Uconn will have to be wary in leaving her open for a 3. Her on the ball defense is excellent, but Hartley is too quick for her if they do match up.
Advantage UConn
SF – Hayes 5’10” (14.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 3.9 apg) vs Madden 6’ (5.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.5 apg)
Hayes is playing like we all were hoping she would. Her all-around game is outstanding. While still inconsistent from 3 point land, her rebounding and passing have been excellent. She will get some votes for AA if this continues. Madden is the teams defensive stopper, but she hasn’t seen anyone as quick as Hayes and Hayes being left handed always confuses the opponents. If Madden takes a lot of shots, Uconn is in great shape. Against St. Johns she took 17.
Advantage UConn
PF – Faris 5’11” (6.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.4 apg) vs Pope 6’1” (11.0 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 1.4 apg)
I said I won’t pick against Faris again, and I’m sticking to it. Kelly’s offense seems to be coming around some, and that is something Uconn needs. They can’t afford to play 4 against 5 on offense. She plays the best 1-1 defense in the country, so if Geno decides to go with Dolson and another big at times, don’t be surprised if Faris is covering Sims at times. Pope appears to have taken over the stating position. That could change as Williams had a good 2nd half against St. Johns. She is tough down low with she gets the ball where she wants but is inconsistent on her put backs. And horrid FT shooter at 41%.
Advantage UConn
C – Dolson 6’5” (9.8 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.4 apg) vs Griner 6’4” (22.8 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 1.0 apg)
Not much to say here. Griner is the best in the country and the toughest matchup for any center. She is not only long, but a terrific instinctual shot blocker. Dolson will have a few thrown back at her. The question is, can Dolson keep her away from the basket and can Uconn make the entry pass difficult?. And can Dolson draw Griner away from the basket so Uconn can drive to the hoop as they like to do? Tough to say, but there is no doubt who has the advantage here.
Advantage Baylor
Bench – Uconn - Lewis 6’ ( 15.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.9 apg), Stokes 6’3” (3.7 ppg, 3.7 rpg, .6 apg), Banks, 5’9” (4.8 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 1.4 apg), Buck (4.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.0 apg)
vs
Baylor - Williams 6’1” (9.6 ppg,7.1 rpg, 1.5 apg), Condrey 5’7” (4.7 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.1 apg)
Total stats off the bench – Uconn – 28.9, 15.5, 4.9. Baylor – 14.3, 10.8, 4.6.
As I said in the A&M analysis and any other analysis going forward, anytime you have a player like Lewis coming off your bench you have an advantage.
Advantage UConn
Coach – Geno Auriemma vs Kim Mulkey
Mulkey is a terrific coach and motivator and her success at Baylor has put her on pace for wins over any top coach not named Pat. She is a great motivator and a kick to watch on the sidelines. Her in game moves are sometimes questioned but she has been around the game as a player and coach for a while and has a terrific understanding of the game. As I said in my A&M analysis, Geno is Geno and he has the advantage over everyone.
Advantage UConn
Intangibles – Home court makes a difference for sure and is the only intangible advantage I see for either team. Not sure how true the slight in house stuff (Mulky calling out everyone but Sims and Griner and Sims then publically agreeing). I don’t expect that to be an issue other than the players called out might try to hard because of it.
Advantage Baylor
Final analysis – This is going to be a lot of fun. The kind of game that makes my stomach turn inside/out…lol. Baylor has to value the ball. Uconn forces over 20 TO’s a game and they press like no one else does. I did see the Tennessee press be successful for some of their game against Baylor and ND was able for force 17 TO’s. Pressure on the ball in the half court defense for Uconn is paramount. It will take time off the clock and help prevent easy entry passes to Griner. Dolson will have to use her bulk to keep Griner from where she wants to go. In looking at the box scores, it appears that Griner and Sims do not have viable backups, so expect them to play 40 minutes each. Depth is a weakness for Baylor in my opinion and it’s something that Uconn will likely exploit. For Uconn on offense, can Hayes and Hartley get to the basket with Griner there? And with the on ball pressure that Baylor brings, can Uconn get off open 3’s and make them. With 3’s being such a big part of Uconn’s offense, this will be a difference maker. Finally, can Lewis play with the aplomb of an upper classman in her first road test in college? The answer so all the questions above will decide the game.
Final prediction – This is such a difficult game to predict. Baylor is terrific, but I have seen some struggles lately and not just a 9 minute drought like Uconn had against Seton Hall. Uconn’s defense is unbelievable this year. Will it impact Baylor as it has everyone else? So many factors here. Home court for Baylor is huge. But I’m going to go with Uconn by the slimmest of margins. 1-3 points.
Players lost – Uconn – Moore and Dixon. Baylor- Jones.
Clearly UConn has lost more than Baylor from last years club, but don't underestimate the loss of Jones. She was the emotional leader and she did have 14 rebounds from the guard spot last year.
For purposes of this analysis, I’m going to put Pope in the starting lineup. I’m not sure that Mulkey will put her back on the bench after her nice start against St. Johns. For players on the bench, I usually go with players that play in the tougher games. Against ND, Tennessee and St. Johns, Baylor played Agbuke only 2 total minutes and Roberson only 12 (all in the St. Johns game as Condrey was out). So I’m only going to show two bench players here.
PG – Doty 5’10” (7.3 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 2.2 apg) vs Sims 5’9” (17.7 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 7.2 apg)
Doty seems to be coming around. She seems more confident in what she is doing and is now leading the team in 3pt percentage at 45%. He defense is surprisingly good so far, looking comfortable with her knee. But I don’t expect her to cover Sims the entire game if at all. Sims has played like the best point guard in the country for most of this year. She struggled against St. Johns after getting two 1st half fouls and it seemed to put her off her game. I don’t expect that to happen in this game. She is as tough as nails.
Advantage Baylor
SG – Hartley 5’9” (13.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 4.1 apg) vs Hayden 5’11” (8.9 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.1 apg)
As stated above, I don’t expect Doty to cover Sims much. I think this will fall on Hartley’s lap for the most part. Hartley has been in a little shooting slump, but maybe memories of her clutch shooting last year will get her out of it. Hayden is a terrific player, but her offense is very inconsistent. From easttexastrash, our Baylor fan visitor – “Hayden is long and fast like Madden and is really good at overplaying the passing lanes from the PG to the wing and gets her share of steals from that. However, she is just a train-wreck on offense, driving wildly to the basket and throwing up crazy shots or charging.” Even so, Uconn will have to be wary in leaving her open for a 3. Her on the ball defense is excellent, but Hartley is too quick for her if they do match up.
Advantage UConn
SF – Hayes 5’10” (14.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 3.9 apg) vs Madden 6’ (5.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.5 apg)
Hayes is playing like we all were hoping she would. Her all-around game is outstanding. While still inconsistent from 3 point land, her rebounding and passing have been excellent. She will get some votes for AA if this continues. Madden is the teams defensive stopper, but she hasn’t seen anyone as quick as Hayes and Hayes being left handed always confuses the opponents. If Madden takes a lot of shots, Uconn is in great shape. Against St. Johns she took 17.
Advantage UConn
PF – Faris 5’11” (6.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.4 apg) vs Pope 6’1” (11.0 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 1.4 apg)
I said I won’t pick against Faris again, and I’m sticking to it. Kelly’s offense seems to be coming around some, and that is something Uconn needs. They can’t afford to play 4 against 5 on offense. She plays the best 1-1 defense in the country, so if Geno decides to go with Dolson and another big at times, don’t be surprised if Faris is covering Sims at times. Pope appears to have taken over the stating position. That could change as Williams had a good 2nd half against St. Johns. She is tough down low with she gets the ball where she wants but is inconsistent on her put backs. And horrid FT shooter at 41%.
Advantage UConn
C – Dolson 6’5” (9.8 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.4 apg) vs Griner 6’4” (22.8 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 1.0 apg)
Not much to say here. Griner is the best in the country and the toughest matchup for any center. She is not only long, but a terrific instinctual shot blocker. Dolson will have a few thrown back at her. The question is, can Dolson keep her away from the basket and can Uconn make the entry pass difficult?. And can Dolson draw Griner away from the basket so Uconn can drive to the hoop as they like to do? Tough to say, but there is no doubt who has the advantage here.
Advantage Baylor
Bench – Uconn - Lewis 6’ ( 15.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.9 apg), Stokes 6’3” (3.7 ppg, 3.7 rpg, .6 apg), Banks, 5’9” (4.8 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 1.4 apg), Buck (4.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.0 apg)
vs
Baylor - Williams 6’1” (9.6 ppg,7.1 rpg, 1.5 apg), Condrey 5’7” (4.7 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.1 apg)
Total stats off the bench – Uconn – 28.9, 15.5, 4.9. Baylor – 14.3, 10.8, 4.6.
As I said in the A&M analysis and any other analysis going forward, anytime you have a player like Lewis coming off your bench you have an advantage.
Advantage UConn
Coach – Geno Auriemma vs Kim Mulkey
Mulkey is a terrific coach and motivator and her success at Baylor has put her on pace for wins over any top coach not named Pat. She is a great motivator and a kick to watch on the sidelines. Her in game moves are sometimes questioned but she has been around the game as a player and coach for a while and has a terrific understanding of the game. As I said in my A&M analysis, Geno is Geno and he has the advantage over everyone.
Advantage UConn
Intangibles – Home court makes a difference for sure and is the only intangible advantage I see for either team. Not sure how true the slight in house stuff (Mulky calling out everyone but Sims and Griner and Sims then publically agreeing). I don’t expect that to be an issue other than the players called out might try to hard because of it.
Advantage Baylor
Final analysis – This is going to be a lot of fun. The kind of game that makes my stomach turn inside/out…lol. Baylor has to value the ball. Uconn forces over 20 TO’s a game and they press like no one else does. I did see the Tennessee press be successful for some of their game against Baylor and ND was able for force 17 TO’s. Pressure on the ball in the half court defense for Uconn is paramount. It will take time off the clock and help prevent easy entry passes to Griner. Dolson will have to use her bulk to keep Griner from where she wants to go. In looking at the box scores, it appears that Griner and Sims do not have viable backups, so expect them to play 40 minutes each. Depth is a weakness for Baylor in my opinion and it’s something that Uconn will likely exploit. For Uconn on offense, can Hayes and Hartley get to the basket with Griner there? And with the on ball pressure that Baylor brings, can Uconn get off open 3’s and make them. With 3’s being such a big part of Uconn’s offense, this will be a difference maker. Finally, can Lewis play with the aplomb of an upper classman in her first road test in college? The answer so all the questions above will decide the game.
Final prediction – This is such a difficult game to predict. Baylor is terrific, but I have seen some struggles lately and not just a 9 minute drought like Uconn had against Seton Hall. Uconn’s defense is unbelievable this year. Will it impact Baylor as it has everyone else? So many factors here. Home court for Baylor is huge. But I’m going to go with Uconn by the slimmest of margins. 1-3 points.
