UConn athletics long-term

[Zissou]

I love how he keeps pumping the JMU-Delaware savior theory because he happens to have a map drawn with dots on it...

Someone should have paid more attention to where the dots are when signing up Tulane and Tulsa.

 

[UCHuskies08]

This is the first time in almost 30 years I have not read every story I could find on UConn basketball recruiting. This is the second year where I am not even paying attention to UConn football over the summer, even though opening kickoff is just over two months away. I have had season tickets since the Rent opened, and still pay for them despite only going to half the games now. I remember the first game like it was yesterday, with the Indiana defenders bouncing off Terry Caulley like he was in a video game, and I couldn't find my car because I walked down the wrong runway.

I am not happy at all about where UConn athletics is, and the lack of vision and overall gutlessness of the athletic department is frustrating. We are dying on our knees, instead of fighting for survival. The outcome may be the same, but at least we should at least put up a fight.

p.s. I know I am the smartest person in the room, I don't need this to prove it.

I used to be on the train disagreeing with Waylon/nelson's points regarding our conference/football.

But no longer.

Anyone sniping at him - I mean, have at it I guess. I suppose there's not much else you can do at this point. We're F---ed guys. With a capital F.

You accuse him of not throwing out solutions, but he's had one single solution the whole time, that at this point, I have come around to agreeing with.

Get in the Big East, what happens to football, IDK. The boat we're on is sinking though. You can bitch at Nelson all you want, but it ain't gonna help. There's no rescue boat coming. We've all been hoping for one for so long! Time to wake up and stop dreaming.

 

[shizzle787]

I used to be on the train disagreeing with Waylon/nelson's points regarding our conference/football.

But no longer.

Anyone sniping at him - I mean, have at it I guess. I suppose there's not much else you can do at this point. We're --ed guys. With a capital F.

You accuse him of not throwing out solutions, but he's had one single solution the whole time, that at this point, I have come around to agreeing with.

Get in the Big East, what happens to football, IDK. The boat we're on is sinking though. You can bitch at Nelson all you want, but it ain't gonna help. There's no rescue boat coming. We've all been hoping for one for so long! Time to wake up and stop dreaming.

I vascillate between this opinion and waiting 7 or so years to see what happens in the Big 12. If Kansas and West Virginia are still there but Oklahoma and Texas have left, we will probably get an invite. If this is the line-up seven years from now in the Big 12 (Kansas, WVU, Kansas State, Iowa State, TCU, Baylor, Cincy, BYU, Houston, UConn), we will be in a comparable league with the current Big 12 from a basketball standpoint and better in football than the old Big East with at least two localish rivals (Cincy and WVU).

 

[shizzle787]

If Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas left the Big 12, that league would not be any better than the MWC or AAC from a competitiveness or television standpoint. We saw what the networks do to a vulnerable conference when it loses a bag of Spartacus like Rutgers. Imagine what the networks will do to the Big 12 when it loses Texas.

If any league wanted to pick us up, they would have picked us up. Short of UConn becoming a football powerhouse again or somehow returning to our basketball glory, I don't see any reason for another league to add us in our current format. UConn needs to protect that hoops program immediately, because 2-3 more years of this and there will be nothing to protect. We also need to make more money ASAP.

NBE for hoops and non-revenue sports, and indy for football is the only path I see to solve both these problems. UConn would get a huge recruiting bump from being in the NBE, and the football program is in such bad shape structurally that independence may be a needed fresh start.

I don't think Kansas is getting a life boat. We saw this when they tried to whore themselves out to the Big East back 6-7 years ago when the Big 12 looked like it was going to implode. There is a good chance they won't get in another P5/4 league. If they are still in the Big 12 post raid, we will likely be in a conference with schools like Kansas, WVU, Iowa State, and Cincy in basketball. That is a power basketball league. If say, the Texahoma 4 leave and are replaced by us, Cincy, Houston, and BYU; that would be a wash in basketball for the Big 12. Football would not be as good but it would be like the old Big East in football, only slightly better. We would definitely get a better TV deal than the current AAC or MWC because you would have a better product
(at least three state flagships-UConn, Kansas, WVU) and both major sports would be better than the AAC of now.

However, would the Big 12 be a power conference? Probably not in football, but in basketball it would be a de facto high major conference like the Big East.

 

[atom58]

I realize the alternate views here (a minority I think) are mainly to go independent FBS/FCS + BB in the new BE as opposed to dropping FB, but a case can be made for FB too:

Banking on college sports

 

[CTMike]

I used to be on the train disagreeing with Waylon/nelson's points regarding our conference/football.

But no longer.

Anyone sniping at him - I mean, have at it I guess. I suppose there's not much else you can do at this point. We're --ed guys. With a capital F.

You accuse him of not throwing out solutions, but he's had one single solution the whole time, that at this point, I have come around to agreeing with.

Get in the Big East, what happens to football, IDK. The boat we're on is sinking though. You can bitch at Nelson all you want, but it ain't gonna help. There's no rescue boat coming. We've all been hoping for one for so long! Time to wake up and stop dreaming.

My annoyance with Nelson is his condescending arrogance. He's been advocating abandoning ship for years. It would have been a mistake years ago. It didn't work out with the B12, but making the attempt was the right call at the time.

Where we are today... things are deteriorating and rapidly. I absolutely get that. And like you said maybe now is the time to start considering the nuclear option. I don't have the answer because all there are are s****y options.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Until UConn is unwilling to pay our men's basketball and football coaches nationally and regionally competitive salaries (respectively) I don't see the need to drop our current affiliation with the AAC.

When the time comes when the salaries we are willing to pay don't let us compete at the level we expect in both our programs, then we can talk about dropping football.

I personally think the state and UConn have invested way too much in both programs to drop football now and seal our fate in the Big East.

 

[Zissou]

Where we are today... things are deteriorating and rapidly. I absolutely get that. And like you said maybe now is the time to start considering the nuclear option. I don't have the answer because all there are are s****y options.

Here is a hypothetical with some real numbers.

What if Fox would support UConn to the Big East, and extended the Big East contract another 5 years with a guaranteed $5M per school per year for basketball.
What if UConn were to be able to keep their Tier 3 rights for all sports. What if UConn could monetize that to $2M.
What if Fox and CBS would support the football Eastern Alliance of Independents with a TV deal for $5M per school per year, excluding the Army-Navy game which is already contracted by CBS through 2028 (and is already excluded from the AAC arrangement) and is probably $10M just for the one game..

That is $12M worth of what ifs.

What if Aresco is able to increase the AAC ESPN TV deal from ~$2M per school to $7.5M per school, which includes basketball and football. This will be a challenge with ESPN shedding costs and having a low starting benchmark, but let's assume it gets done.

It's all hypothetical, but would you rather be in the Big East or in the American in this hypothetical?

They are all options if you expected a $30M P5 deal. Maybe UConn needs to fully explore its best option outside of P5. If the P5 happens it's just gravy.

 

[Stray_Dog]

UConn is both feet in FBS at this point.

If / until a P5 opportunity arises, what is the better "forever" position and what is the better "interim" position for UConn? I think the answer to both is Big East for all sports but FB, with FB remaining in the American, or going indy if the American deal can't be negotiated.

Being in a Top 3 hoops conference with regional foes and a NYC base is a better environment for both UConn basketball programs. The footprint is much more reasonable for non-rev sports.

If the FB-only American can be negotiated, UConn has the best of both worlds. As a fall-back, indy football won't really hurt it's chances at future P5 consideration. As in the past, the bigger picture of the university's position will be critical and more important than specific short-term performance in football.

So for sake of argument you get back into the Big East and Indy for football, how do you feel about UMass taking our spot in the AAC? Imagine if in a few years UMass has more success than UConn because we threw our football under the bus. Or ask yourself this question, Why doesn't UMass join the Big East? They did have a promising history of potentially good basketball (and heck if UConn can have good basketball and it's not about coaches but conferences) that I am sure they would like to re-gain and they certainly are within the Big East region. Sure they were never in the Big East but who from the state of MA is? BC left so why not replace with UMass, why hasn't UMass tried? or did they???

 

[huskymedic]

Maybe UConn needs to fully explore its best option outside of P5.

Here's my continual rub w/ your personal mission for UConn to join the NBE that you keep posting in threads all over the place -- with what degree of actual certainty are you sure that they haven't explored their options outside P5 and determined there is no better ACTUAL option at this point?

You continue to throw out "what-ifs" over "what-ifs" and toss hypotheticals w/ $$ amounts attached w/ nothing to say those numbers are "real" when it comes to getting a contractual deal actually done. They have paid media/strategic consultants out the ying yang over the past 5+ years - these people aren't dumb and I have to believe until proven otherwise - the risk analysis has been done and it is what it is at this point in time.

 

[Zissou]

Why doesn't UMass join the Big East?

The Big East has no interest in UMass. I am sure they would love to be in, but there is no chance.

UConn >>>>> UMass. The Big East would value UConn. The difference? 4 National Championships. Big East History. The NYC market and MSG following. Established Rivalries.

The Big East does not need UConn. It would be a great add, but it's not a need. Personally, the only other program I'd add is Kansas. And maybe others to make UConn or Kansas happen. Kansas isn't realistic unless there is a B12 collapse.

Cincy? no
Wichita State? no
Dayton? no
Richmond? no
VCU? no
UMass? no
UConn? Yes please.

 

[Zissou]

with what degree of actual certainty are you sure that they haven't explored their options outside P5 and determined there is no better ACTUAL option at this point?

What makes you think they have? Athletic programs often blunder their options. One current fact - Nova makes over 2X in TV than UConn, and Nova's package doesn't even include Football. Football is the financial driver and UConn is getting screwed.

 

[huskymedic]

Here's my continual rub w/ your personal mission for UConn to join the NBE that you keep posting in threads all over the place -- with what degree of actual certainty are you sure that they haven't explored their options outside P5 and determined there is no better ACTUAL option at this point?

You continue to throw out "what-ifs" over "what-ifs" and toss hypotheticals w/ $$ amounts attached w/ nothing to say those numbers are "real" when it comes to getting a contractual deal actually done. They have paid media/strategic consultants out the ying yang over the past 5+ years - these people aren't dumb and I have to believe until proven otherwise - the risk analysis has been done and it is what it is at this point in time.

What makes you think they have? Athletic programs often blunder their options. One current fact - Nova makes over 2X in TV than UConn, and Nova's package doesn't even include Football. Football is the financial driver and UConn is getting screwed.

You evaded the question.

You don't have a clue w/ any certainty that the $$ numbers you throw out are what the numbers WILL be if there was a move. Unicorns and rainbows.

Nobody is saying the AAC contract at current terms is sustainable over the long haul but you continue to provide no proof that the deals you consistently lay out are remotely on the table/executable and being ignored.

 

[shizzle787]

You evaded the question.

You don't have a clue w/ any certainty that the $$ numbers you throw out are what the numbers WILL be if there was a move. Unicorns and rainbows.

Nobody is saying the AAC contract at current terms is sustainable over the long haul but you continue to provide no proof that the deals you consistently lay out are remotely on the table/executable and being ignored.

I fully believe the AAC will get stiffed in the next round of negotiations; however, I also believe Zissou's JMU wet-dream will not get $5m a team.

 

[Zissou]

You evaded the question... You don't have a clue w/ any certainty that the numbers you throw out are what the numbers WILL be if there was a move.

I am not evading anything. I can't give you certainty on a hypothetical scenario, by definition.

But how plausible is each hypothetical? If you want to quantify "my degree of certainty" I will, but I will only be giving my opinion. There is no certainty.

1) $5M for a Big East Basketball deal. 80%
The current deal is $4.xM - $5M already. Extending it to UConn does add value to the conference. I think Fox would be all in on UConn.

2) $2M for 3rd Tier rights. 75%
I know others on here think they are worth much more to SNY or YES, but $2M seems reasonable to me.

3) $5M for the Alliance. 70%
The footprint of the schools is compelling. The Rivalries are natural. Army and Navy can be marketed beyond their one game. $40M (8 teams x $5M each) is cheap content on this footprint. Look what the B1G is paying Rutgers, and they suck. Hard. The Army and Navy sums are probably decreased a bit, maybe by $1M each, as their game is excluded and already under CBS contract. They probably get $5M+ each just for that game.

4) $7.5M for the next AAC deal. 25%
ESPN is the partner and they are on hard times. There is very little value in the basketball configuration - maybe similar to the A10. Football is currently valued less than $2M per school, so you are starting with a defined low benchmark. There are few natural rivalries and no programs currently at the top end of D1.

In summary, the Big East basketball package already has more than 2X the AAC football package. I think there is more upside on the Big East + Indy scenario, as shown above.

What values would you assign to each revenue stream 1 through 4 above, and why?

 

[huskymedic]

I am not evading anything. I can't give you certainty on a hypothetical scenario, by definition.

But how plausible is each hypothetical? If you want to quantify "my degree of certainty" I will, but I will only be giving my opinion. There is no certainty.

1) $5M for a Big East Basketball deal. 80%
The current deal is $4.xM - $5M already. Extending it to UConn does add value to the conference. I think Fox would be all in on UConn.

2) $2M for 3rd Tier rights. 75%
I know others on here think they are worth much more to SNY or YES, but $2M seems reasonable to me.

3) $5M for the Alliance. 70%
The footprint of the schools is compelling. The Rivalries are natural. Army and Navy can be marketed beyond their one game. $40M (8 teams x $5M each) is cheap content on this footprint. Look what the B1G is paying Rutgers, and they suck. Hard. The Army and Navy sums are probably decreased a bit, maybe by $1M each, as their game is excluded and already under CBS contract. They probably get $5M+ each just for that game.

4) $7.5M for the next AAC deal. 25%
ESPN is the partner and they are on hard times. There is very little value in the basketball configuration - maybe similar to the A10. Football is currently valued less than $2M per school, so you are starting with a defined low benchmark. There are few natural rivalries and no programs currently at the top end of D1.

In summary, the Big East basketball package already has more than 2X the AAC football package. I think there is more upside on the Big East + Indy scenario, as shown above.

What values would you assign to each revenue stream 1 through 4 above, and why?

You continue to miss the point... it's a worthless discussion to beat home until any of the scenarios are actual deals presented as real options (which I believe will never see the light of day in real life). You have no actual clue right now what the deals would be financially other than your opinion which you continue to posture and beat home as reality. We can throw out numbers to the proverbial cows come home to make the deals seems like they could never be turned down - but they are still made up numbers on a sports message board by anonymous posters. I get that you have spent quite a bit of time developing your model... I'm just not buying it (and frankly - tire of seeing it which is what provoked a response this time).

 

[HuskyDogArt]

It has come up on other boards, but I think it is worth a discussion here since this is a more "catch all" board for UConn athletics topics. I would be interested on how people think UConn athletics is viable long term.

UConn athletics has a $18 million to $28 million hole, depending on how you look at it. That represents money that comes from the school in terms of school funds or student fees. That is circa 2015, and I suspect that number gets worse every year as the Big East exit fees wind down.

UConn spends over $71 million on athletics amid budget troubles

Football Drags on UConn’s Power 5 Ambitions

USA TODAY Sports


There is no high probability path to a P5 invitation. The weakest of the P5's looked at expansion 6 months ago, and decided doing nothing was better than adding UConn. There are no other P5 conferences with expansion even under consideration, in a large part because the consensus expectation is that the P5 schools will see a major drop in their revenues when their current TV deals expire. Why expand when there will not be enough money to feed the mouths around the table in a few years?

I don't want to start a political argument, but the state of Connecticut finances are in terrible shape, and getting worse for the foreseeable future. We should expect state support to UConn to decrease over time. Students are looking at huge tuition increases over the next few years as a result.

On the field and court, the two biggest revenue sports are struggling. Basketball is coming off its worst season in probably 30 years, and football has been bad for a while. Our conference affiliation is hurting recruiting in both sports, and in football appears to put a ceiling on how good UConn football can ever be.

This is not sustainable. Financially, we need more revenue and we need to cut costs. If the quality of the product continues to suffer, it will create a vicious cycle of worse recruiting and less revenue, reducing whatever chance of a P5 invitation we have, and even making us less attractive to other second tier conferences.

Nelson, I didn't know injuries only affected the AAC. We had some bad breaks last year, but this year, it might be another NC.

Nelson, dropping football is a non issue. If we drop football, we will never win a basketball NC ever again. Yes, I said it. I doubt the Big East will never win a NC and I doubt the AAC will let us stay in the conference and the Big East will not be a conference I want to be in, since it is a Catholic - not a Public University - league.

To me, the AAC is the best conference for us at this time. RE will rebuild FB, KO will get players and yes, I like to see us get football players in Europe, Mexico and more Canadians, which is getting popular.

 

[Zissou]

You continue to miss the point... it's a worthless discussion to beat home until any of the scenarios are actual deals presented as real options. You have no clue right now what the deals would be other than your opinion which you continue to posture and beat home as reality. We can throw out numbers to the proverbial cows come home - but they are still made up numbers on a sports message board by anonymous posters.

Isn't that the point of a sports blog - to discuss what is possible?
Don't comment on recruits, because you have no control of the recruiting.
Don't comment on the next game, because you have no control of the outcome.
Don't comment on Kevin Love, because you are not the one that traded for him.

What would you like to discuss on a sports blog titled Conference Realignment Board?


You asked for me to quantify (at least I thought you did), so I did. That is what you wanted, right?

 

[UConnDan97]

Someone should have paid more attention to where the dots are when signing up Tulane and Tulsa.

Q: You know what makes Tulane and Tulsa look infinitely better?

A: James Madison and Delaware...

 

[Zissou]

You evaded the question.

I have answered your question directly, now what do you think is the value of each TV rev stream for UConn?
- Men's BB, Tier 1 and 2.
- Women's BB, Tier 1 and 2
- FB, Tier 1 and 2
- 3rd Tier rights

For reference, the above combined is about $1.8M in your current deal. I'd assign about $400K to BB and $1.4 to FB.

 

[HuskyDogArt]

Moving beyond name calling, nelsonmuntz notes the real monetary concern of funding FBS from a stretched state budget with below market revenue from the American.

Nelson, I think, suggests moving away from FBS. imho, UConn has too much already invested in FBS to give up now. Good money after bad? Maybe, but most of the investment is already made, so to sustain FBS is a measured risk.

The American being low revenue is an anchor. UConn could more than double its TV revenue by going Big East, and then worry about incremental revenue with its football program. If they get zero for football as an indy, they would still be ahead with the Big East contract. I think UConn gets more than zero. I think there is a good chance that they negotiate a stay in the American for football. As a FALL BACK position in the American discussion, an indy Alliance is plausible. Again, the indy risk is mitigated by the Big East contract already delivering more revenue than the AAC contract.

The Big East ship sailed. The Big East is made up of private schools, not flagship universities. Us in the Big East would make as much sense as University of Hawaii in the SEC.

 

[huskymedic]

Isn't that the point of a sports blog - to discuss what is possible?
Don't comment on recruits, because you have no control of the recruiting.
Don't comment on the next game, because you have no control of the outcome.
Don't comment on Kevin Love, because you are not the one that traded for him.

What would you like to discuss on a sports blog titled Conference Realignment Board?

I have answered your question directly, now what do you think is the value of each TV rev stream for UConn?
- Men's BB, Tier 1 and 2.
- Women's BB, Tier 1 and 2
- FB, Tier 1 and 2
- 3rd Tier rights

For reference, the above combined is about $1.8M in your current deal. I'd assign about $400K to BB and $1.4 to FB.

I guess I'm more of a reality based discussion guy... I never did well w/ abstracts or fantasy genre

I'm done playing the "what if" game tonight. I'm sure someone else will be along soon that enjoys that more than I do...

 

[Zissou]

I guess I'm more of a reality based discussion guy... I never did well w/ abstracts.

you evaded the question. again.

 

[HuskyDogArt]

Q: You know what makes Tulane and Tulsa look infinitely better?

A: James Madison and Delaware...

So true...yes, give up FBS to go to play Maine, URI, James Madison, New Hampshire, Richmond and Yale? Really...let's have 3500 people in a 40,000 seat stadium. That'll really help basketball recruiting. Sorry, I'd take my FBS chances against USF, UCF, BC, SMU, Houston, Tulane, Tulsa, ACC, SEC, Big 10 or any other teams.

 

[Ldandy]

So true...yes, give up FBS to go to play Maine, URI, James Madison, New Hampshire, Richmond and Yale? Really...let's have 3500 people in a 40,000 seat stadium. That'll really help basketball recruiting. Sorry, I'd take my FBS chances against USF, UCF, BC, SMU, Houston, Tulane, Tulsa, ACC, SEC, Big 10 or any other teams.

You clearly don't get it. The hype is real. JMU v. Delaware is fire. Don't you dare sleep on "The Alliance" bro.

 

[Zissou]

You clearly don't get it. The hype is real. JMU v. Delaware is fire. Don't you dare sleep on "The Alliance" bro.

It's no East Carolina vs. Tulane, I'll give you that.

Or Rutgers, your conference mate.

 

[HuskyDogArt]

You clearly don't get it. The hype is real. JMU v. Delaware is fire. Don't you dare sleep on "The Alliance" bro.

It might be fire, but UConn should never give up the FBS dream. When UConn went to 1A, I was worried that we can't succeed, but we did. After RE left (and I was hateful towards him when he left and I didn't want him to be rehired. I see RE rebuilding us, so I forgave him.), we hired 2 idiots as our head coaches, 1 who had the game pass him by and the other I wouldn't hire him to run a youth flag football team.

 

[Zissou]

So true...yes, give up FBS to go to play Maine, URI, James Madison, New Hampshire, Richmond and Yale? Really...let's have 3500 people in a 40,000 seat stadium. That'll really help basketball recruiting. Sorry, I'd take my FBS chances against USF, UCF, BC, SMU, Houston, Tulane, Tulsa, ACC, SEC, Big 10 or any other teams.

You shouldn't look too far down your nose at JMU. If they move up, they will have a past FCS history just like UConn, except with 2 National Championships. An even as a an FCS team last year they were ranked #33 including all FBS and FCS schools. UConn #154.

Be careful of your glass house.

 

[HuskyDogArt]

You shouldn't look too far down your nose at JMU. If they move up, they will have a past FCS history just like UConn, except with 2 National Championships. An even as a an FCS team last year they were ranked #33 including all FBS and FCS schools. UConn #154.

Be careful of your glass house.

I'm not saying anything bad about JMU, South Dakota, 'Nova or New Hampshire. The CAA is the SEC of FCS in my humble opinion.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Nelson, I didn't know injuries only affected the AAC. We had some bad breaks last year, but this year, it might be another NC.

Nelson, dropping football is a non issue. If we drop football, we will never win a basketball NC ever again. Yes, I said it. I doubt the Big East will never win a NC and I doubt the AAC will let us stay in the conference and the Big East will not be a conference I want to be in, since it is a Catholic - not a Public University - league.

To me, the AAC is the best conference for us at this time. RE will rebuild FB, KO will get players and yes, I like to see us get football players in Europe, Mexico and more Canadians, which is getting popular.

Villanova won a national championship just over a year ago. The American has not produced a sweet 16 team since we won it all in 2014.