UConn athletics long-term

[Zissou]

Moving beyond name calling, nelsonmuntz notes the real monetary concern of funding FBS from a stretched state budget with below market revenue from the American.

Nelson, I think, suggests moving away from FBS. imho, UConn has too much already invested in FBS to give up now. Good money after bad? Maybe, but most of the investment is already made, so to sustain FBS is a measured risk.

The American being low revenue is an anchor. UConn could more than double its TV revenue by going Big East, and then worry about incremental revenue with its football program. If they get zero for football as an indy, they would still be ahead with the Big East contract. I think UConn gets more than zero. I think there is a good chance that they negotiate a stay in the American for football. As a FALL BACK position in the American discussion, an indy Alliance is plausible. Again, the indy risk is mitigated by the Big East contract already delivering more revenue than the AAC contract.

 

[uconnell]

Moving beyond name calling, nelsonmuntz notes the real monetary concern of funding FBS from a stretched state budget with below market revenue from the American.

Nelson, I think, suggests moving away from FBS. imho, UConn has too much already invested in FBS to give up now. Good money after bad? Maybe, but most of the investment is already made, so to sustain FBS is a measured risk.

The American being low revenue is an anchor. UConn could more than double its TV revenue by going Big East, and then worry about incremental revenue with its football program. If they get zero for football as an indy, they would still be ahead with the Big East contract. I think UConn gets more than zero. I think there is a good chance that they negotiate a stay in the American for football. As a FALL BACK position in the American discussion, an indy Alliance is plausible. Again, the indy risk is mitigated by the Big East contract already delivering more revenue than the AAC contract.

I see the Mothership didn't find you.

 

[Zissou]

I see the Mothership didn't find you.

I am not affiliated with ESPN.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

My opinion on this is simple. The Big 12 more likely than not will lose some of its more important members in 2025. My guess is that at least Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State will be gone. That will leave anywhere from 3-6 spots available. I believe we will get one of those spots. However, in the mean time, we could get lucky (unlikely) and the Big Ten or ACC could pick us up. If the Big 12 does indeed stay together and it looks like we are shut out of the P5/4 forever, then I would say NBE/indy.

If Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas left the Big 12, that league would not be any better than the MWC or AAC from a competitiveness or television standpoint. We saw what the networks do to a vulnerable conference when it loses a bag of like Rutgers. Imagine what the networks will do to the Big 12 when it loses Texas.

If any league wanted to pick us up, they would have picked us up. Short of UConn becoming a football powerhouse again or somehow returning to our basketball glory, I don't see any reason for another league to add us in our current format. UConn needs to protect that hoops program immediately, because 2-3 more years of this and there will be nothing to protect. We also need to make more money ASAP.

NBE for hoops and non-revenue sports, and indy for football is the only path I see to solve both these problems. UConn would get a huge recruiting bump from being in the NBE, and the football program is in such bad shape structurally that independence may be a needed fresh start.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

So you are going to visit another schools board... point out obvious things about their current conference situation... throw out awful "solutions" out of the goodness of your heart... feign surprise when we don't just go along with your brilliant "just play Nova and Delaware" plan... and call posters girl names for good measure?

Do you add this little value in all areas of your life?

The awful solutions are coming from the UConn fans, not the Villanova fan. I am going to say "I told you so" to you over and over until you, pepband, and the rest of the AAC lovers realize that this conference is catastrophic for UConn athletics.

 

[MASSconn]

Nelson - you have a lot of valid points. There should be panic, and I'm sure there is an an executive level within the school.

We'll never find out what they're thinking, but its clear the best solution is winning NOW in football. Nothing else really matters unfortunately. Our current financial situation is not feasible long term, so it's wait and see.

I do agree though that we should have stayed in the Big East for basketball.

 

[CTMike]

The awful solutions are coming from the UConn fans, not the Villanova fan. I am going to say "I told you so" to you over and over until you, pepband, and the rest of the AAC lovers realize that this conference is catastrophic for UConn athletics.

If there's one thing I've been consistent on, it's hatred for the AAC. Try again. Sorry, you don't get a pat on the back for saying the AAC is bad for UConn, as if no one else realizes that. What you haven't provided is viable solutions - you've just merely shouted "fire!"

Now, the situation we find ourselves in isn't the same day by day. It was marginally better two years ago than today. The "solutions" you propose didn't make sense at that particular point in time. But I certainly acknowledge that the threshold is changing the longer we are in this hell hole... eventually, your proposal may be the best possible option. But you just want that "I told you so" moment so you can pretend you are the smartest person in the room.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If there's one thing I've been consistent on, it's hatred for the AAC. Try again. Sorry, you don't get a pat on the back for saying the AAC is bad for UConn, as if no one else realizes that. What you haven't provided is viable solutions - you've just merely shouted "fire!"

Now, the situation we find ourselves in isn't the same day by day. It was marginally better two years ago than today. The "solutions" you propose didn't make sense at that particular point in time. But I certainly acknowledge that the threshold is changing the longer we are in this hell hole... eventually, your proposal may be the best possible option. But you just want that "I told you so" moment so you can pretend you are the smartest person in the room.

This is the first time in almost 30 years I have not read every story I could find on UConn basketball recruiting. This is the second year where I am not even paying attention to UConn football over the summer, even though opening kickoff is just over two months away. I have had season tickets since the Rent opened, and still pay for them despite only going to half the games now. I remember the first game like it was yesterday, with the Indiana defenders bouncing off Terry Caulley like he was in a video game, and I couldn't find my car because I walked down the wrong runway.

I am not happy at all about where UConn athletics is, and the lack of vision and overall gutlessness of the athletic department is frustrating. We are dying on our knees, instead of fighting for survival. The outcome may be the same, but at least we should at least put up a fight.

p.s. I know I am the smartest person in the room, I don't need this to prove it.

 

[CTMike]

p.s. I know I am the smartest person in the room, I don't need this to prove it.

LOL

 

[UConnDan97]

All of your suggestions are bad. Bye Felicia.

I love how he keeps pumping the JMU-Delaware savior theory because he happens to have a map drawn with dots on it...

 

[Zissou]

I love how he keeps pumping the JMU-Delaware savior theory because he happens to have a map drawn with dots on it...

Someone should have paid more attention to where the dots are when signing up Tulane and Tulsa.

 

[UCHuskies08]

This is the first time in almost 30 years I have not read every story I could find on UConn basketball recruiting. This is the second year where I am not even paying attention to UConn football over the summer, even though opening kickoff is just over two months away. I have had season tickets since the Rent opened, and still pay for them despite only going to half the games now. I remember the first game like it was yesterday, with the Indiana defenders bouncing off Terry Caulley like he was in a video game, and I couldn't find my car because I walked down the wrong runway.

I am not happy at all about where UConn athletics is, and the lack of vision and overall gutlessness of the athletic department is frustrating. We are dying on our knees, instead of fighting for survival. The outcome may be the same, but at least we should at least put up a fight.

p.s. I know I am the smartest person in the room, I don't need this to prove it.

I used to be on the train disagreeing with Waylon/nelson's points regarding our conference/football.

But no longer.

Anyone sniping at him - I mean, have at it I guess. I suppose there's not much else you can do at this point. We're F---ed guys. With a capital F.

You accuse him of not throwing out solutions, but he's had one single solution the whole time, that at this point, I have come around to agreeing with.

Get in the Big East, what happens to football, IDK. The boat we're on is sinking though. You can bitch at Nelson all you want, but it ain't gonna help. There's no rescue boat coming. We've all been hoping for one for so long! Time to wake up and stop dreaming.

 

[shizzle787]

I used to be on the train disagreeing with Waylon/nelson's points regarding our conference/football.

But no longer.

Anyone sniping at him - I mean, have at it I guess. I suppose there's not much else you can do at this point. We're --ed guys. With a capital F.

You accuse him of not throwing out solutions, but he's had one single solution the whole time, that at this point, I have come around to agreeing with.

Get in the Big East, what happens to football, IDK. The boat we're on is sinking though. You can bitch at Nelson all you want, but it ain't gonna help. There's no rescue boat coming. We've all been hoping for one for so long! Time to wake up and stop dreaming.

I vascillate between this opinion and waiting 7 or so years to see what happens in the Big 12. If Kansas and West Virginia are still there but Oklahoma and Texas have left, we will probably get an invite. If this is the line-up seven years from now in the Big 12 (Kansas, WVU, Kansas State, Iowa State, TCU, Baylor, Cincy, BYU, Houston, UConn), we will be in a comparable league with the current Big 12 from a basketball standpoint and better in football than the old Big East with at least two localish rivals (Cincy and WVU).

 

[shizzle787]

If Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas left the Big 12, that league would not be any better than the MWC or AAC from a competitiveness or television standpoint. We saw what the networks do to a vulnerable conference when it loses a bag of like Rutgers. Imagine what the networks will do to the Big 12 when it loses Texas.

If any league wanted to pick us up, they would have picked us up. Short of UConn becoming a football powerhouse again or somehow returning to our basketball glory, I don't see any reason for another league to add us in our current format. UConn needs to protect that hoops program immediately, because 2-3 more years of this and there will be nothing to protect. We also need to make more money ASAP.

NBE for hoops and non-revenue sports, and indy for football is the only path I see to solve both these problems. UConn would get a huge recruiting bump from being in the NBE, and the football program is in such bad shape structurally that independence may be a needed fresh start.

I don't think Kansas is getting a life boat. We saw this when they tried to whore themselves out to the Big East back 6-7 years ago when the Big 12 looked like it was going to implode. There is a good chance they won't get in another P5/4 league. If they are still in the Big 12 post raid, we will likely be in a conference with schools like Kansas, WVU, Iowa State, and Cincy in basketball. That is a power basketball league. If say, the Texahoma 4 leave and are replaced by us, Cincy, Houston, and BYU; that would be a wash in basketball for the Big 12. Football would not be as good but it would be like the old Big East in football, only slightly better. We would definitely get a better TV deal than the current AAC or MWC because you would have a better product
(at least three state flagships-UConn, Kansas, WVU) and both major sports would be better than the AAC of now.

However, would the Big 12 be a power conference? Probably not in football, but in basketball it would be a de facto high major conference like the Big East.

 

[atom58]

I realize the alternate views here (a minority I think) are mainly to go independent FBS/FCS + BB in the new BE as opposed to dropping FB, but a case can be made for FB too:

Banking on college sports

 

[CTMike]

I used to be on the train disagreeing with Waylon/nelson's points regarding our conference/football.

But no longer.

Anyone sniping at him - I mean, have at it I guess. I suppose there's not much else you can do at this point. We're --ed guys. With a capital F.

You accuse him of not throwing out solutions, but he's had one single solution the whole time, that at this point, I have come around to agreeing with.

Get in the Big East, what happens to football, IDK. The boat we're on is sinking though. You can bitch at Nelson all you want, but it ain't gonna help. There's no rescue boat coming. We've all been hoping for one for so long! Time to wake up and stop dreaming.

My annoyance with Nelson is his condescending arrogance. He's been advocating abandoning ship for years. It would have been a mistake years ago. It didn't work out with the B12, but making the attempt was the right call at the time.

Where we are today... things are deteriorating and rapidly. I absolutely get that. And like you said maybe now is the time to start considering the nuclear option. I don't have the answer because all there are are s****y options.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Until UConn is unwilling to pay our men's basketball and football coaches nationally and regionally competitive salaries (respectively) I don't see the need to drop our current affiliation with the AAC.

When the time comes when the salaries we are willing to pay don't let us compete at the level we expect in both our programs, then we can talk about dropping football.

I personally think the state and UConn have invested way too much in both programs to drop football now and seal our fate in the Big East.

 

[Zissou]

Where we are today... things are deteriorating and rapidly. I absolutely get that. And like you said maybe now is the time to start considering the nuclear option. I don't have the answer because all there are are s****y options.

Here is a hypothetical with some real numbers.

What if Fox would support UConn to the Big East, and extended the Big East contract another 5 years with a guaranteed $5M per school per year for basketball.
What if UConn were to be able to keep their Tier 3 rights for all sports. What if UConn could monetize that to $2M.
What if Fox and CBS would support the football Eastern Alliance of Independents with a TV deal for $5M per school per year, excluding the Army-Navy game which is already contracted by CBS through 2028 (and is already excluded from the AAC arrangement) and is probably $10M just for the one game..

That is $12M worth of what ifs.

What if Aresco is able to increase the AAC ESPN TV deal from ~$2M per school to $7.5M per school, which includes basketball and football. This will be a challenge with ESPN shedding costs and having a low starting benchmark, but let's assume it gets done.

It's all hypothetical, but would you rather be in the Big East or in the American in this hypothetical?

They are all options if you expected a $30M P5 deal. Maybe UConn needs to fully explore its best option outside of P5. If the P5 happens it's just gravy.

 

[Stray_Dog]

UConn is both feet in FBS at this point.

If / until a P5 opportunity arises, what is the better "forever" position and what is the better "interim" position for UConn? I think the answer to both is Big East for all sports but FB, with FB remaining in the American, or going indy if the American deal can't be negotiated.

Being in a Top 3 hoops conference with regional foes and a NYC base is a better environment for both UConn basketball programs. The footprint is much more reasonable for non-rev sports.

If the FB-only American can be negotiated, UConn has the best of both worlds. As a fall-back, indy football won't really hurt it's chances at future P5 consideration. As in the past, the bigger picture of the university's position will be critical and more important than specific short-term performance in football.

So for sake of argument you get back into the Big East and Indy for football, how do you feel about UMass taking our spot in the AAC? Imagine if in a few years UMass has more success than UConn because we threw our football under the bus. Or ask yourself this question, Why doesn't UMass join the Big East? They did have a promising history of potentially good basketball (and heck if UConn can have good basketball and it's not about coaches but conferences) that I am sure they would like to re-gain and they certainly are within the Big East region. Sure they were never in the Big East but who from the state of MA is? BC left so why not replace with UMass, why hasn't UMass tried? or did they???

 

[huskymedic]

Maybe UConn needs to fully explore its best option outside of P5.

Here's my continual rub w/ your personal mission for UConn to join the NBE that you keep posting in threads all over the place -- with what degree of actual certainty are you sure that they haven't explored their options outside P5 and determined there is no better ACTUAL option at this point?

You continue to throw out "what-ifs" over "what-ifs" and toss hypotheticals w/ $$ amounts attached w/ nothing to say those numbers are "real" when it comes to getting a contractual deal actually done. They have paid media/strategic consultants out the ying yang over the past 5+ years - these people aren't dumb and I have to believe until proven otherwise - the risk analysis has been done and it is what it is at this point in time.

 

[Zissou]

Why doesn't UMass join the Big East?

The Big East has no interest in UMass. I am sure they would love to be in, but there is no chance.

UConn >>>>> UMass. The Big East would value UConn. The difference? 4 National Championships. Big East History. The NYC market and MSG following. Established Rivalries.

The Big East does not need UConn. It would be a great add, but it's not a need. Personally, the only other program I'd add is Kansas. And maybe others to make UConn or Kansas happen. Kansas isn't realistic unless there is a B12 collapse.

Cincy? no
Wichita State? no
Dayton? no
Richmond? no
VCU? no
UMass? no
UConn? Yes please.

 

[Zissou]

with what degree of actual certainty are you sure that they haven't explored their options outside P5 and determined there is no better ACTUAL option at this point?

What makes you think they have? Athletic programs often blunder their options. One current fact - Nova makes over 2X in TV than UConn, and Nova's package doesn't even include Football. Football is the financial driver and UConn is getting screwed.

 

[huskymedic]

Here's my continual rub w/ your personal mission for UConn to join the NBE that you keep posting in threads all over the place -- with what degree of actual certainty are you sure that they haven't explored their options outside P5 and determined there is no better ACTUAL option at this point?

You continue to throw out "what-ifs" over "what-ifs" and toss hypotheticals w/ $$ amounts attached w/ nothing to say those numbers are "real" when it comes to getting a contractual deal actually done. They have paid media/strategic consultants out the ying yang over the past 5+ years - these people aren't dumb and I have to believe until proven otherwise - the risk analysis has been done and it is what it is at this point in time.

What makes you think they have? Athletic programs often blunder their options. One current fact - Nova makes over 2X in TV than UConn, and Nova's package doesn't even include Football. Football is the financial driver and UConn is getting screwed.

You evaded the question.

You don't have a clue w/ any certainty that the $$ numbers you throw out are what the numbers WILL be if there was a move. Unicorns and rainbows.

Nobody is saying the AAC contract at current terms is sustainable over the long haul but you continue to provide no proof that the deals you consistently lay out are remotely on the table/executable and being ignored.

 

[shizzle787]

You evaded the question.

You don't have a clue w/ any certainty that the $$ numbers you throw out are what the numbers WILL be if there was a move. Unicorns and rainbows.

Nobody is saying the AAC contract at current terms is sustainable over the long haul but you continue to provide no proof that the deals you consistently lay out are remotely on the table/executable and being ignored.

I fully believe the AAC will get stiffed in the next round of negotiations; however, I also believe Zissou's JMU wet-dream will not get $5m a team.

 

[Zissou]

You evaded the question... You don't have a clue w/ any certainty that the numbers you throw out are what the numbers WILL be if there was a move.

I am not evading anything. I can't give you certainty on a hypothetical scenario, by definition.

But how plausible is each hypothetical? If you want to quantify "my degree of certainty" I will, but I will only be giving my opinion. There is no certainty.

1) $5M for a Big East Basketball deal. 80%
The current deal is $4.xM - $5M already. Extending it to UConn does add value to the conference. I think Fox would be all in on UConn.

2) $2M for 3rd Tier rights. 75%
I know others on here think they are worth much more to SNY or YES, but $2M seems reasonable to me.

3) $5M for the Alliance. 70%
The footprint of the schools is compelling. The Rivalries are natural. Army and Navy can be marketed beyond their one game. $40M (8 teams x $5M each) is cheap content on this footprint. Look what the B1G is paying Rutgers, and they suck. Hard. The Army and Navy sums are probably decreased a bit, maybe by $1M each, as their game is excluded and already under CBS contract. They probably get $5M+ each just for that game.

4) $7.5M for the next AAC deal. 25%
ESPN is the partner and they are on hard times. There is very little value in the basketball configuration - maybe similar to the A10. Football is currently valued less than $2M per school, so you are starting with a defined low benchmark. There are few natural rivalries and no programs currently at the top end of D1.

In summary, the Big East basketball package already has more than 2X the AAC football package. I think there is more upside on the Big East + Indy scenario, as shown above.

What values would you assign to each revenue stream 1 through 4 above, and why?