UConn athletics long-term

[huskymedic]

I am not evading anything. I can't give you certainty on a hypothetical scenario, by definition.

But how plausible is each hypothetical? If you want to quantify "my degree of certainty" I will, but I will only be giving my opinion. There is no certainty.

1) $5M for a Big East Basketball deal. 80%
The current deal is $4.xM - $5M already. Extending it to UConn does add value to the conference. I think Fox would be all in on UConn.

2) $2M for 3rd Tier rights. 75%
I know others on here think they are worth much more to SNY or YES, but $2M seems reasonable to me.

3) $5M for the Alliance. 70%
The footprint of the schools is compelling. The Rivalries are natural. Army and Navy can be marketed beyond their one game. $40M (8 teams x $5M each) is cheap content on this footprint. Look what the B1G is paying Rutgers, and they suck. Hard. The Army and Navy sums are probably decreased a bit, maybe by $1M each, as their game is excluded and already under CBS contract. They probably get $5M+ each just for that game.

4) $7.5M for the next AAC deal. 25%
ESPN is the partner and they are on hard times. There is very little value in the basketball configuration - maybe similar to the A10. Football is currently valued less than $2M per school, so you are starting with a defined low benchmark. There are few natural rivalries and no programs currently at the top end of D1.

In summary, the Big East basketball package already has more than 2X the AAC football package. I think there is more upside on the Big East + Indy scenario, as shown above.

What values would you assign to each revenue stream 1 through 4 above, and why?

You continue to miss the point... it's a worthless discussion to beat home until any of the scenarios are actual deals presented as real options (which I believe will never see the light of day in real life). You have no actual clue right now what the deals would be financially other than your opinion which you continue to posture and beat home as reality. We can throw out numbers to the proverbial cows come home to make the deals seems like they could never be turned down - but they are still made up numbers on a sports message board by anonymous posters. I get that you have spent quite a bit of time developing your model... I'm just not buying it (and frankly - tire of seeing it which is what provoked a response this time).

 

[HuskyDogArt]

It has come up on other boards, but I think it is worth a discussion here since this is a more "catch all" board for UConn athletics topics. I would be interested on how people think UConn athletics is viable long term.

UConn athletics has a $18 million to $28 million hole, depending on how you look at it. That represents money that comes from the school in terms of school funds or student fees. That is circa 2015, and I suspect that number gets worse every year as the Big East exit fees wind down.

UConn spends over $71 million on athletics amid budget troubles

Football Drags on UConn’s Power 5 Ambitions

USA TODAY Sports


There is no high probability path to a P5 invitation. The weakest of the P5's looked at expansion 6 months ago, and decided doing nothing was better than adding UConn. There are no other P5 conferences with expansion even under consideration, in a large part because the consensus expectation is that the P5 schools will see a major drop in their revenues when their current TV deals expire. Why expand when there will not be enough money to feed the mouths around the table in a few years?

I don't want to start a political argument, but the state of Connecticut finances are in terrible shape, and getting worse for the foreseeable future. We should expect state support to UConn to decrease over time. Students are looking at huge tuition increases over the next few years as a result.

On the field and court, the two biggest revenue sports are struggling. Basketball is coming off its worst season in probably 30 years, and football has been bad for a while. Our conference affiliation is hurting recruiting in both sports, and in football appears to put a ceiling on how good UConn football can ever be.

This is not sustainable. Financially, we need more revenue and we need to cut costs. If the quality of the product continues to suffer, it will create a vicious cycle of worse recruiting and less revenue, reducing whatever chance of a P5 invitation we have, and even making us less attractive to other second tier conferences.

Nelson, I didn't know injuries only affected the AAC. We had some bad breaks last year, but this year, it might be another NC.

Nelson, dropping football is a non issue. If we drop football, we will never win a basketball NC ever again. Yes, I said it. I doubt the Big East will never win a NC and I doubt the AAC will let us stay in the conference and the Big East will not be a conference I want to be in, since it is a Catholic - not a Public University - league.

To me, the AAC is the best conference for us at this time. RE will rebuild FB, KO will get players and yes, I like to see us get football players in Europe, Mexico and more Canadians, which is getting popular.

 

[Zissou]

You continue to miss the point... it's a worthless discussion to beat home until any of the scenarios are actual deals presented as real options. You have no clue right now what the deals would be other than your opinion which you continue to posture and beat home as reality. We can throw out numbers to the proverbial cows come home - but they are still made up numbers on a sports message board by anonymous posters.

Isn't that the point of a sports blog - to discuss what is possible?
Don't comment on recruits, because you have no control of the recruiting.
Don't comment on the next game, because you have no control of the outcome.
Don't comment on Kevin Love, because you are not the one that traded for him.

What would you like to discuss on a sports blog titled Conference Realignment Board?


You asked for me to quantify (at least I thought you did), so I did. That is what you wanted, right?

 

[UConnDan97]

Someone should have paid more attention to where the dots are when signing up Tulane and Tulsa.

Q: You know what makes Tulane and Tulsa look infinitely better?

A: James Madison and Delaware...

 

[Zissou]

You evaded the question.

I have answered your question directly, now what do you think is the value of each TV rev stream for UConn?
- Men's BB, Tier 1 and 2.
- Women's BB, Tier 1 and 2
- FB, Tier 1 and 2
- 3rd Tier rights

For reference, the above combined is about $1.8M in your current deal. I'd assign about $400K to BB and $1.4 to FB.

 

[HuskyDogArt]

Moving beyond name calling, nelsonmuntz notes the real monetary concern of funding FBS from a stretched state budget with below market revenue from the American.

Nelson, I think, suggests moving away from FBS. imho, UConn has too much already invested in FBS to give up now. Good money after bad? Maybe, but most of the investment is already made, so to sustain FBS is a measured risk.

The American being low revenue is an anchor. UConn could more than double its TV revenue by going Big East, and then worry about incremental revenue with its football program. If they get zero for football as an indy, they would still be ahead with the Big East contract. I think UConn gets more than zero. I think there is a good chance that they negotiate a stay in the American for football. As a FALL BACK position in the American discussion, an indy Alliance is plausible. Again, the indy risk is mitigated by the Big East contract already delivering more revenue than the AAC contract.

The Big East ship sailed. The Big East is made up of private schools, not flagship universities. Us in the Big East would make as much sense as University of Hawaii in the SEC.

 

[huskymedic]

Isn't that the point of a sports blog - to discuss what is possible?
Don't comment on recruits, because you have no control of the recruiting.
Don't comment on the next game, because you have no control of the outcome.
Don't comment on Kevin Love, because you are not the one that traded for him.

What would you like to discuss on a sports blog titled Conference Realignment Board?

I have answered your question directly, now what do you think is the value of each TV rev stream for UConn?
- Men's BB, Tier 1 and 2.
- Women's BB, Tier 1 and 2
- FB, Tier 1 and 2
- 3rd Tier rights

For reference, the above combined is about $1.8M in your current deal. I'd assign about $400K to BB and $1.4 to FB.

I guess I'm more of a reality based discussion guy... I never did well w/ abstracts or fantasy genre

I'm done playing the "what if" game tonight. I'm sure someone else will be along soon that enjoys that more than I do...

 

[Zissou]

I guess I'm more of a reality based discussion guy... I never did well w/ abstracts.

you evaded the question. again.

 

[HuskyDogArt]

Q: You know what makes Tulane and Tulsa look infinitely better?

A: James Madison and Delaware...

So true...yes, give up FBS to go to play Maine, URI, James Madison, New Hampshire, Richmond and Yale? Really...let's have 3500 people in a 40,000 seat stadium. That'll really help basketball recruiting. Sorry, I'd take my FBS chances against USF, UCF, BC, SMU, Houston, Tulane, Tulsa, ACC, SEC, Big 10 or any other teams.

 

[Ldandy]

So true...yes, give up FBS to go to play Maine, URI, James Madison, New Hampshire, Richmond and Yale? Really...let's have 3500 people in a 40,000 seat stadium. That'll really help basketball recruiting. Sorry, I'd take my FBS chances against USF, UCF, BC, SMU, Houston, Tulane, Tulsa, ACC, SEC, Big 10 or any other teams.

You clearly don't get it. The hype is real. JMU v. Delaware is fire. Don't you dare sleep on "The Alliance" bro.

 

[Zissou]

You clearly don't get it. The hype is real. JMU v. Delaware is fire. Don't you dare sleep on "The Alliance" bro.

It's no East Carolina vs. Tulane, I'll give you that.

Or Rutgers, your conference mate.

 

[HuskyDogArt]

You clearly don't get it. The hype is real. JMU v. Delaware is fire. Don't you dare sleep on "The Alliance" bro.

It might be fire, but UConn should never give up the FBS dream. When UConn went to 1A, I was worried that we can't succeed, but we did. After RE left (and I was hateful towards him when he left and I didn't want him to be rehired. I see RE rebuilding us, so I forgave him.), we hired 2 idiots as our head coaches, 1 who had the game pass him by and the other I wouldn't hire him to run a youth flag football team.

 

[Zissou]

So true...yes, give up FBS to go to play Maine, URI, James Madison, New Hampshire, Richmond and Yale? Really...let's have 3500 people in a 40,000 seat stadium. That'll really help basketball recruiting. Sorry, I'd take my FBS chances against USF, UCF, BC, SMU, Houston, Tulane, Tulsa, ACC, SEC, Big 10 or any other teams.

You shouldn't look too far down your nose at JMU. If they move up, they will have a past FCS history just like UConn, except with 2 National Championships. An even as a an FCS team last year they were ranked #33 including all FBS and FCS schools. UConn #154.

Be careful of your glass house.

 

[HuskyDogArt]

You shouldn't look too far down your nose at JMU. If they move up, they will have a past FCS history just like UConn, except with 2 National Championships. An even as a an FCS team last year they were ranked #33 including all FBS and FCS schools. UConn #154.

Be careful of your glass house.

I'm not saying anything bad about JMU, South Dakota, 'Nova or New Hampshire. The CAA is the SEC of FCS in my humble opinion.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Nelson, I didn't know injuries only affected the AAC. We had some bad breaks last year, but this year, it might be another NC.

Nelson, dropping football is a non issue. If we drop football, we will never win a basketball NC ever again. Yes, I said it. I doubt the Big East will never win a NC and I doubt the AAC will let us stay in the conference and the Big East will not be a conference I want to be in, since it is a Catholic - not a Public University - league.

To me, the AAC is the best conference for us at this time. RE will rebuild FB, KO will get players and yes, I like to see us get football players in Europe, Mexico and more Canadians, which is getting popular.

Villanova won a national championship just over a year ago. The American has not produced a sweet 16 team since we won it all in 2014.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

You clearly don't get it. The hype is real. JMU v. Delaware is fire. Don't you dare sleep on "The Alliance" bro.

It's is ridiculous to mock any other league, even a hypothetical one, when you are arguing for staying in the American.

 

[billybud]

Aiyeeeee!

My head is going to explode.

UConn give up football ?....UConn leave the world of public university sports to play in a league of smallish private schools?

UConn join the Catholic Seven?

Ite missa est.

 

[Adios]

This board is proof of why the oceans are heavily polluted.

 

[MASSconn]

The more people defend staying in "The American", the more I want to send back my diploma. Bball needs to move back.

I think that 60% of the country still thinks we are in the Big East (and doesn't know the American exists).

 

[ConnHuskBask]

There are two options:

1) Continue to play football/basketball in the AAC until the schools feels it can no longer financially support our programs.
2) Drop football and join the Big East for basketball.

There is no independent/FCS option.

As long as UConn continues to pay coaches, build out infrastructure I think the cries over financial concerns are a bit over blown.

I understand the subsidy isn't good for anyone, but as far as athletics goes, the school hasn't shown it's curtailing spending, if anything it is being ramped up.

I'm all for keeping FBS football in the best G5 conference until we're forced to remove it.

Getting four hoops games against Georgetown and Villanova on a channel nobody watches doesn't change my opinion on that.

 

[The Funster]

Dropping football is a non starter. The Rent wasn't built to be abandoned. I happen to agree with nelson that the future of football is cloudy. Concussion issues and a strong possibility of declining participation cannot be ignored. However football isn't going to just go away any time soon. Being in the AAC is total suckage but there are no other realistic options available to us. There are quite a few fantasy scenarios, though.

 

[UCHuskies08]

Aiyeeeee!

My head is going to explode.

UConn give up football ?....UConn leave the world of public university sports to play in a league of smallish private schools?

UConn join the Catholic Seven?

Ite missa est.

UConn dying a slow financial death as P5 schools get tens of millions per year from TV alone while we have to rob student tuitions to fund our programs? I remember when we made fun of Rutgers for that.

 

[UConnDan97]

It's is ridiculous to mock any other league, even a hypothetical one, when you are arguing for staying in the American.

Your statement is perhaps the most ridiculous thing in this thread, and that's saying something.

It is absolutely correct to mock a hypothetical conference that contains JMU and Delaware when that hypothetical conference is being offered as something that would solve our financial woes. I think even someone like you would acknowledge that, Nelson, although maybe I'm overestimating you.

What folks here aren't fully coming to terms with is the fact that there is an even larger move by the P5 schools to further alienate the other schools in athletics. That includes the Big East as well. The not-so-distant future will ultimately show that schools with 50 million in revenue will eventually steal away the great college coaches from the schools with 4 million in revenue. And while the 50 million grows, the 4 million will shrink.

So what's the answer then? In my opinion, and most likely in the opinion of the consultants that have advised UConn, we need to strengthen our football. Period. We have to become as attractive as possible to the other P5 conferences so that when the next conference shake-up happens, we are the first one on the board. And believe me, it is a matter of WHEN the next conference shake-up happens, not IF...

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Your statement is perhaps the most ridiculous thing in this thread, and that's saying something.

It is absolutely correct to mock a hypothetical conference that contains JMU and Delaware when that hypothetical conference is being offered as something that would solve our financial woes. I think even someone like you would acknowledge that, Nelson, although maybe I'm overestimating you.

What folks here aren't fully coming to terms with is the fact that there is an even larger move by the P5 schools to further alienate the other schools in athletics. That includes the Big East as well. The not-so-distant future will ultimately show that schools with 50 million in revenue will eventually steal away the great college coaches from the schools with 4 million in revenue. And while the 50 million grows, the 4 million will shrink.

So what's the answer then? In my opinion, and most likely in the opinion of the consultants that have advised UConn, we need to strengthen our football. Period. We have to become as attractive as possible to the other P5 conferences so that when the next conference shake-up happens, we are the first one on the board. And believe me, it is a matter of WHEN the next conference shake-up happens, not IF...

The number of P5 schools is more likely to shrink than it is to grow. You are arguing for investing another $70 million into football for the next 7 years on the off chance that the Big 10 may want to grab us in 2024? And why is the Big 10 more likely to grab us in 2024 after 10 years of mediocrity in a mediocre conference, as opposed to UConn regaining basketball powerhouse status in the Big East and being no worse off in football as an independent? So, in conclusion, your plan guarantees that our basketball program ends up a mid-major while costing an extra $70 million over my plan.

 

[UConnDan97]

The number of P5 schools is more likely to shrink than it is to grow. You are arguing for investing another $70 million into football for the next 7 years on the off chance that the Big 10 may want to grab us in 2024? And why is the Big 10 more likely to grab us in 2024 after 10 years of mediocrity in a mediocre conference, as opposed to UConn regaining basketball powerhouse status in the Big East and being no worse off in football as an independent? So, in conclusion, your plan guarantees that our basketball program ends up a mid-major while costing an extra $70 million over my plan.

Wrong.

We've already seen that we were a coin-flip away from being in the Big12 recently, even though from a geographic standpoint we have no business being there. And had we been added to the Big12, their teams are reported to be receiving larger revenue per school than the ACC even. And the more likely landing spot I would imagine would be the ACC eventually.

But that's the point. We are attractive to three different P5 conferences in the event that they expand. We need to rebuild our football program to where it was in 2010. If we do so, the metrics are heavily in our favor...