UConn -3.5 St. Marys

[JohnFSilver]

Here in Albany. St Mary’s doesn’t scare anyone. Play our game and good things will happen.

There are only 3 or 4 teams that can beat UConn when the huskies play well. Iona, which i read a dozen stories about how they were going to be tough, played as well as it could play in the first half and led by 2.

This game was a mortal lock. Huskies aren’t a 4-seed. Sometimes, believe the data.

 

[GampelGladiator]

 

[auror]

View attachment 85272

Those are some really good round of 32 games. Sunday has all 4 of the 3/6 (+3/Pitt) games and 2 4/5 games, a really good 2/7 where the 7 has a hall of fame coach, and the Fdash U Bowl

 

[gsmooth]

I live 5 minutes from St Mary's and have been to many games. Yes as Methodology stated they are solid with a freshman guard who can handle the pressure and be a leader. I'm all UCONN with this matchup and yes we better come to play.

Maybe u should collaborate with Hey Adrien on the scouting report

 

[UCHuskies08]

Must win.

big if true

 

[nomar]

All Gaels must be destroyed

 

[Umami Zen]

Giving a nod to Saratoga Springs up the road.. Thoroughbreds vs trotters.. Our athleticism and speed is superior.

 

[CTFIRERETIRED]

They only really go 6 deep. 3 shooters. Play really, really slow.

If we handle our stuff defensively, they don't have the size or athleticism to defend us.

Are they, in any way, like Princeton in their play?

 

[caw]

They have a very good defense (on metrics) and they did play Houston close. They ran some really nice back cuts against VCU today and blew up their press (mostly after Baldwin was out).

The one game they won against Gonzaga it was due to defense and unexpected offense. And a stellar last 5 minutes plus OT.

The team closest to UConn that SMC has played is probably Gonzaga, because they haven't really faced any other big man who is as good as Sanogo/Timme. To be honest Gonzaga probably should have won all three matches this year. People would strung up Hurley if he lost that one game. Think UConn is more physical and athletic.

I am not even sure SMC wins against VCU without that second half injury to Baldwin. It was a four point game when he went down.

Still their defense did shutdown VCU today and they didn't seem phased by the press at all (not that UConn really presses like that, sometimes to try and control tempo, but not as much for steals). Add in the fact it's the NCAAT and Purdue lost to FDU and while UConn should win, SMC could pull it out if UConn isn't focused.

 

[MTBingNinja]

What time Sunday

6:10

 

[husky429]

Are they, in any way, like Princeton in their play?

Are you asking if they run a princeton offense? Does princeton even run a princeton offense any more?

I just said what they have in common. Smaller, less athletic, skilled (shooters), but not very deep. They win by methodically hunting good shots and playing slow.

That IS playing like Princeton (or any of the ivies) versus high-major teams.

 

[Chuck]

Wonder if Joey C has any helpful insight. He played against St. Mary’s at least 8 times I assume. They have a couple seniors and a junior as starters, so he played against those guys directly.

I looked it up and neither he, nor his Toreros had good games against the west coast Gaels last year. Hopefully we can help him get some revenge!

 

[Marat]

St Mary's were awful from 3 yesterday vs VCU. You know that means they will be nailing them tomorrow. We are doomed!

 

[Tfoyle]

Looking at the box score 2 players played 38m 2 players played 40m. Hoping for some tired legs

 

[HooperScooper]

Wonder if Joey C has any helpful insight. He played against St. Mary’s at least 8 times I assume. They have a couple seniors and a junior as starters, so he played against those guys directly.

I looked it up and neither he, nor his Toreros had good games against the west coast Gaels last year. Hopefully we can help him get some revenge!

Yes, he does. He will share his thoughts with Luke Murray, who is doing the scouting report.

Saint Mary's Scouting Report

Saint Mary's: 27-7 KenPom Rating: 12 NET ranking: 11 2-3 vs Q1 ; 7-2 vs Q2 Best Win 2/4/23 78-70 over Gonzaga in OT Mahaney, 18 points, 7-11 from 2, 1-8 from 3 Team shot 59.5 2p%, 25.0 3p% Worst Loss: 3/7/23 77-51 to Gonzaga Mahaney, 7 points, 2-8 from the field Team shot 37.8...

the-boneyard.com

 

[Tenspro2002]

I continue believing that if you're going to bet us as a favorite, bet us against the spread. If we win, it's going to be by double digits. If you're feeling really bold, you could probably tease this up to -7.5 or so to get extra odds in your favor while not sacrificing much percentage-wise.

 

[auror]

Up to -4.5 for me.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

They have a very good defense (on metrics) and they did play Houston close. They ran some really nice back cuts against VCU today and blew up their press (mostly after Baldwin was out).

The one game they won against Gonzaga it was due to defense and unexpected offense. And a stellar last 5 minutes plus OT.

The team closest to UConn that SMC has played is probably Gonzaga, because they haven't really faced any other big man who is as good as Sanogo/Timme. To be honest Gonzaga probably should have won all three matches this year. People would strung up Hurley if he lost that one game. Think UConn is more physical and athletic.

I am not even sure SMC wins against VCU without that second half injury to Baldwin. It was a four point game when he went down.

Still their defense did shutdown VCU today and they didn't seem phased by the press at all (not that UConn really presses like that, sometimes to try and control tempo, but not as much for steals). Add in the fact it's the NCAAT and Purdue lost to FDU and while UConn should win, SMC could pull it out if UConn isn't focused.

I agree we want to push the pace , if we turn them over great but we want them to never really get set in that offense .
The report said they could defensive rebound . That‘s more difficult to do if we can get them to hurry .
Pace will be everything .
We can’t let them get comfortable in long offensive sets .

 

[BiggieSmall]

Yes, he does. He will share his thoughts with Luke Murray, who is doing the scouting report.

Saint Mary's Scouting Report

Saint Mary's: 27-7 KenPom Rating: 12 NET ranking: 11 2-3 vs Q1 ; 7-2 vs Q2 Best Win 2/4/23 78-70 over Gonzaga in OT Mahaney, 18 points, 7-11 from 2, 1-8 from 3 Team shot 59.5 2p%, 25.0 3p% Worst Loss: 3/7/23 77-51 to Gonzaga Mahaney, 7 points, 2-8 from the field Team shot 37.8...

the-boneyard.com

Joey was 0-6 in his career against them. Last year had a total of 9 points against them in 2 games. He is due.

 

[XLCenterFan]

$100 on the moneyline. Got -145 after the DK bonus. Let’s goooo. Section 201 in the house.

 

[JB75]

I’m usually saying I can’t believe uconns favored by this many points and so and so - but this one really has me surprised / how is UConn only giving 3.5 vs st Mary’s especially after the second half we had - That means we’re in for a nailbiter. Very surprised. Thought more like -6 ish

 

[HuskyHawk]

I’m usually saying I can’t believe uconns favored by this many points and so and so - but this one really has me surprised / how is UConn only giving 3.5 vs st Mary’s especially after the second half we had - That means we’re in for a nailbiter. Very surprised. Thought more like -6 ish

My take, and it’s why I didn’t touch the line even when I saw it at -3, St. Mary’s limits possessions and plays slow. So the pace alone could mean you won’t get to those larger margins. Obviously UConn needs to change that if it can. Nobody wants to be in a 3 point game late.

I want to see UConn with an early lead, which might speed St. Mary’s up. Can’t come out slow today.

 

[August_West]

My take, and it’s why I didn’t touch the line even when I saw it at -3, St. Mary’s limits possessions and plays slow. So the pace alone could mean you won’t get to those larger margins. Obviously UConn needs to change that if it can. Nobody wants to be in a 3 point game late.

I want to see UConn with an early lead, which might speed St. Mary’s up. Can’t come out slow today.

First 7 minutes are huge

 

[Jay-Bone]

I want to see UConn with an early lead, which might speed St. Mary’s up. Can’t come out slow today.

Yup. I loaded -3.5, then I'm hoping to get about a 1/5th of that bet on SMU +6.5 / +7.5, then a little smaller bet at +9.5. We win by 6 and I hit the gap. I think/hope we come out fast and SMU is like a deer in headlights. Hawkins and Sanogo shook off the nerves in the second half and if we can carry that over to a good start, we can handle them settling in.

 

[BarkingDog]

UConn will win today.

And all the gods are powerless to stop it.