UConn -3.5 St. Marys | Page 2 | The Boneyard

UConn -3.5 St. Marys

BoukofJames said:
All Gaels must be destroyed
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main-qimg-df1bf3de72228d33d3d40c6f24ba6189-lq
 
husky429 said:
They only really go 6 deep. 3 shooters. Play really, really slow.

If we handle our stuff defensively, they don't have the size or athleticism to defend us.
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Are they, in any way, like Princeton in their play?
 
They have a very good defense (on metrics) and they did play Houston close. They ran some really nice back cuts against VCU today and blew up their press (mostly after Baldwin was out).

The one game they won against Gonzaga it was due to defense and unexpected offense. And a stellar last 5 minutes plus OT.

The team closest to UConn that SMC has played is probably Gonzaga, because they haven't really faced any other big man who is as good as Sanogo/Timme. To be honest Gonzaga probably should have won all three matches this year. People would strung up Hurley if he lost that one game. Think UConn is more physical and athletic.

I am not even sure SMC wins against VCU without that second half injury to Baldwin. It was a four point game when he went down.

Still their defense did shutdown VCU today and they didn't seem phased by the press at all (not that UConn really presses like that, sometimes to try and control tempo, but not as much for steals). Add in the fact it's the NCAAT and Purdue lost to FDU and while UConn should win, SMC could pull it out if UConn isn't focused.
 
CTFIRERETIRED said:
Are they, in any way, like Princeton in their play?
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Are you asking if they run a princeton offense? Does princeton even run a princeton offense any more?

I just said what they have in common. Smaller, less athletic, skilled (shooters), but not very deep. They win by methodically hunting good shots and playing slow.

That IS playing like Princeton (or any of the ivies) versus high-major teams.
 
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Wonder if Joey C has any helpful insight. He played against St. Mary’s at least 8 times I assume. They have a couple seniors and a junior as starters, so he played against those guys directly.

I looked it up and neither he, nor his Toreros had good games against the west coast Gaels last year. Hopefully we can help him get some revenge!
 
Chuck said:
Wonder if Joey C has any helpful insight. He played against St. Mary’s at least 8 times I assume. They have a couple seniors and a junior as starters, so he played against those guys directly.

I looked it up and neither he, nor his Toreros had good games against the west coast Gaels last year. Hopefully we can help him get some revenge!
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Yes, he does. He will share his thoughts with Luke Murray, who is doing the scouting report.

the-boneyard.com

Saint Mary's Scouting Report

Saint Mary's: 27-7 KenPom Rating: 12 NET ranking: 11 2-3 vs Q1 ; 7-2 vs Q2 Best Win 2/4/23 78-70 over Gonzaga in OT Mahaney, 18 points, 7-11 from 2, 1-8 from 3 Team shot 59.5 2p%, 25.0 3p% Worst Loss: 3/7/23 77-51 to Gonzaga Mahaney, 7 points, 2-8 from the field Team shot 37.8...
the-boneyard.com the-boneyard.com
 
I continue believing that if you're going to bet us as a favorite, bet us against the spread. If we win, it's going to be by double digits. If you're feeling really bold, you could probably tease this up to -7.5 or so to get extra odds in your favor while not sacrificing much percentage-wise.
 
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caw said:
They have a very good defense (on metrics) and they did play Houston close. They ran some really nice back cuts against VCU today and blew up their press (mostly after Baldwin was out).

The one game they won against Gonzaga it was due to defense and unexpected offense. And a stellar last 5 minutes plus OT.

The team closest to UConn that SMC has played is probably Gonzaga, because they haven't really faced any other big man who is as good as Sanogo/Timme. To be honest Gonzaga probably should have won all three matches this year. People would strung up Hurley if he lost that one game. Think UConn is more physical and athletic.

I am not even sure SMC wins against VCU without that second half injury to Baldwin. It was a four point game when he went down.

Still their defense did shutdown VCU today and they didn't seem phased by the press at all (not that UConn really presses like that, sometimes to try and control tempo, but not as much for steals). Add in the fact it's the NCAAT and Purdue lost to FDU and while UConn should win, SMC could pull it out if UConn isn't focused.
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I agree we want to push the pace , if we turn them over great but we want them to never really get set in that offense .
The report said they could defensive rebound . That‘s more difficult to do if we can get them to hurry .
Pace will be everything .
We can’t let them get comfortable in long offensive sets .
 
HooperScooper said:
Yes, he does. He will share his thoughts with Luke Murray, who is doing the scouting report.

the-boneyard.com

Saint Mary's Scouting Report

Saint Mary's: 27-7 KenPom Rating: 12 NET ranking: 11 2-3 vs Q1 ; 7-2 vs Q2 Best Win 2/4/23 78-70 over Gonzaga in OT Mahaney, 18 points, 7-11 from 2, 1-8 from 3 Team shot 59.5 2p%, 25.0 3p% Worst Loss: 3/7/23 77-51 to Gonzaga Mahaney, 7 points, 2-8 from the field Team shot 37.8...
the-boneyard.com the-boneyard.com
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Joey was 0-6 in his career against them. Last year had a total of 9 points against them in 2 games. He is due.
 
$100 on the moneyline. Got -145 after the DK bonus. Let’s goooo. Section 201 in the house.
 
I’m usually saying I can’t believe uconns favored by this many points and so and so - but this one really has me surprised / how is UConn only giving 3.5 vs st Mary’s especially after the second half we had - That means we’re in for a nailbiter. Very surprised. Thought more like -6 ish
 
JB75 said:
I’m usually saying I can’t believe uconns favored by this many points and so and so - but this one really has me surprised / how is UConn only giving 3.5 vs st Mary’s especially after the second half we had - That means we’re in for a nailbiter. Very surprised. Thought more like -6 ish
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My take, and it’s why I didn’t touch the line even when I saw it at -3, St. Mary’s limits possessions and plays slow. So the pace alone could mean you won’t get to those larger margins. Obviously UConn needs to change that if it can. Nobody wants to be in a 3 point game late.

I want to see UConn with an early lead, which might speed St. Mary’s up. Can’t come out slow today.
 
HuskyHawk said:
My take, and it’s why I didn’t touch the line even when I saw it at -3, St. Mary’s limits possessions and plays slow. So the pace alone could mean you won’t get to those larger margins. Obviously UConn needs to change that if it can. Nobody wants to be in a 3 point game late.

I want to see UConn with an early lead, which might speed St. Mary’s up. Can’t come out slow today.
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First 7 minutes are huge
 
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HuskyHawk said:
I want to see UConn with an early lead, which might speed St. Mary’s up. Can’t come out slow today.
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Yup. I loaded -3.5, then I'm hoping to get about a 1/5th of that bet on SMU +6.5 / +7.5, then a little smaller bet at +9.5. We win by 6 and I hit the gap. I think/hope we come out fast and SMU is like a deer in headlights. Hawkins and Sanogo shook off the nerves in the second half and if we can carry that over to a good start, we can handle them settling in.
 
mussels said:
I look to see if Jackson launches a three in the first two minutes. Kinda like wether the groundhog sees his shadow.

If it goes in, Huskies in a route. If it misses, it’s coming down to the wire.
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If he misses and keeps shooting 3 or 4 more, grab SMU quick. lol
 
All year, everyone here has sworn performance metrics are the way to judge teams while they had us so high. Just remember, that just like we’re a performance metrics 2 seed, St. Mary’s is a metrics 3 seed. This game should be being played Thursday in Vegas, not Sunday in Albany.

I don’t expect this game to be easy, and this may be the game where we have to make good decisions in the last four minutes. Do we win if we play well — I think so.
 
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So doomed.

www.cbssports.com

2023 March Madness predictions: NCAA bracket expert picks against the spread, odds in Sunday's Round 2 games

A closer look as the second round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament wraps up Sunday
www.cbssports.com www.cbssports.com

(4) UConn vs. (5) Saint Mary's​

Sunday, 6:10 p.m. | TNT, March Madness Live: UConn's only losses in the past two months have come against teams also playing in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies have won 10 of their last 12, and they just crushed Iona 87-63 in the first round after trailing at halftime. Saint Mary's is an excellent defensive team, but the Huskies can beat opponents in a variety of ways and should find a method for creating separation as the game progresses. Pick: UConn -3.5 -- David Cobb

PARRISHNORLANDERPALMBOONECOBBPATTERSON
Spread UCONN -3.5UCONN -3.5UCONN -3.5 UCONN -3.5 UCONN -3.5 UCONN -3.5
Straight up UCONNUCONN UCONN UCONN UCONN UCONN
 
These are the type of games that are public bloodbaths. Everyone loading up on UConn not giving St Mary’s any type of respect. Happens in every single sport where the line seems too good to be true. Sometimes those games come through but more often than not Vegas feasts

Not touching this game might see what live in game bets become available
 
methodology said:
These are the type of games that are public bloodbaths. Everyone loading up on UConn not giving St Mary’s any type of respect. Happens in every single sport where the line seems too good to be true. Sometimes those games come through but more often than not Vegas feasts

Not touching this game might see what live in game bets become available
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I normally agree with this observation, but this may not happen.

1. UCONN is clearly the better team. It's not even debatable. 2. It's not really a neutral court.

The spurtability factor is another problem that Randy Bennett has to deal with. When they rip off a 9-0 run, it's going to be hard to get the ship back in order. St. Mary's isn't equipped to chase points against this team.
 
Ripper32 said:
I normally agree with this observation, but this may not happen.

1. UCONN is clearly the better team. It's not even debatable. 2. It's not really a neutral court.

The spurtability factor is another problem that Randy Bennett has to deal with. When they rip off a 9-0 run, it's going to be hard to get the ship back in order. St. Mary's isn't equipped to chase points against this team.
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I thought pitino, excellent coach he is, tried his best to stem any kind of momentum runs. Twice he called TOs when UConn hit two shots and got big stops. 4 point lead and he called timeouts. He knew UConn wins and loses based on mentality. This team needs momentum more than any team I can remember. All the talent in the world, but feeds off energy.
 
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