UConn -3.5 St. Marys

[mussels]

First 7 minutes are huge

I look to see if Jackson launches a three in the first two minutes. Kinda like wether the groundhog sees his shadow.

If it goes in, Huskies in a route. If it misses, it’s coming down to the wire.

 

[Jay-Bone]

I look to see if Jackson launches a three in the first two minutes. Kinda like wether the groundhog sees his shadow.

If it goes in, Huskies in a route. If it misses, it’s coming down to the wire.

If he misses and keeps shooting 3 or 4 more, grab SMU quick. lol

 

[businesslawyer]

All year, everyone here has sworn performance metrics are the way to judge teams while they had us so high. Just remember, that just like we’re a performance metrics 2 seed, St. Mary’s is a metrics 3 seed. This game should be being played Thursday in Vegas, not Sunday in Albany.

I don’t expect this game to be easy, and this may be the game where we have to make good decisions in the last four minutes. Do we win if we play well — I think so.

 

[Tenspro2002]

$100 on the moneyline. Got -145 after the DK bonus. Let’s goooo. Section 201 in the house.

You got $100 max on the DK CBB boost promo? Lucky guy, I got $10.

 

[XLCenterFan]

You got $100 max on the DK CBB boost promo? Lucky guy, I got $10.

You’re right. Only $25 of that bet has the 32% promo price. The other $75 is the sucker price.

 

[HooperScooper]

So doomed.

2023 March Madness predictions: NCAA bracket expert picks against the spread, odds in Sunday's Round 2 games

A closer look as the second round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament wraps up Sunday

www.cbssports.com

(4) UConn vs. (5) Saint Mary's​

Sunday, 6:10 p.m. | TNT, March Madness Live: UConn's only losses in the past two months have come against teams also playing in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies have won 10 of their last 12, and they just crushed Iona 87-63 in the first round after trailing at halftime. Saint Mary's is an excellent defensive team, but the Huskies can beat opponents in a variety of ways and should find a method for creating separation as the game progresses. Pick: UConn -3.5 -- David Cobb

	PARRISH	NORLANDER	PALM	BOONE	COBB	PATTERSON
Spread	UCONN -3.5	UCONN -3.5	UCONN -3.5	UCONN -3.5	UCONN -3.5	UCONN -3.5
Straight up	UCONN	UCONN	UCONN	UCONN	UCONN	UCONN

 

[SubbaBub]

 

[methodology]

These are the type of games that are public bloodbaths. Everyone loading up on UConn not giving St Mary’s any type of respect. Happens in every single sport where the line seems too good to be true. Sometimes those games come through but more often than not Vegas feasts

Not touching this game might see what live in game bets become available

 

[Ripper32]

These are the type of games that are public bloodbaths. Everyone loading up on UConn not giving St Mary’s any type of respect. Happens in every single sport where the line seems too good to be true. Sometimes those games come through but more often than not Vegas feasts

Not touching this game might see what live in game bets become available

I normally agree with this observation, but this may not happen.

1. UCONN is clearly the better team. It's not even debatable. 2. It's not really a neutral court.

The spurtability factor is another problem that Randy Bennett has to deal with. When they rip off a 9-0 run, it's going to be hard to get the ship back in order. St. Mary's isn't equipped to chase points against this team.

 

[spudzj6]

I normally agree with this observation, but this may not happen.

1. UCONN is clearly the better team. It's not even debatable. 2. It's not really a neutral court.

The spurtability factor is another problem that Randy Bennett has to deal with. When they rip off a 9-0 run, it's going to be hard to get the ship back in order. St. Mary's isn't equipped to chase points against this team.

I thought pitino, excellent coach he is, tried his best to stem any kind of momentum runs. Twice he called TOs when UConn hit two shots and got big stops. 4 point lead and he called timeouts. He knew UConn wins and loses based on mentality. This team needs momentum more than any team I can remember. All the talent in the world, but feeds off energy.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Another angle here is that I think this game is fairly "diagonal" (my term) with respect to the total.

If it's low-scoring, that likely favors St. Mary's. If it's high-scoring, that likely favors us.

I would think about parlaying UConn -3.5 + Over 129 or St. Mary's +3.5 + Under 129.

DK has a CBB 32% boost package that includes same game parlays, which you could take advantage of here.

 

[Ripper32]

 

[gsmooth]

My take, and it’s why I didn’t touch the line even when I saw it at -3, St. Mary’s limits possessions and plays slow. So the pace alone could mean you won’t get to those larger margins. Obviously UConn needs to change that if it can. Nobody wants to be in a 3 point game late.

I want to see UConn with an early lead, which might speed St. Mary’s up. Can’t come out slow today.

I am in favor of a soft full court press, not hell bent on getting turnovers, but one that prevents them from starting their half court offense until there are only 17 seconds on the clock-Gonzaga employed this in the WCC final and it worked almost to perfection. I would absolutely love to get a double digit lead early because it has a good chance of getting St. Mary's out of sorts since they really don't like to play faster. Think of SMU's as a car that rides nicely at 55 MPH, but when it has to go 65 MPH is becomes uncomfortable, and if it goes 90 MPH the whole car starts to shake including the steering wheel.

 

[businesslawyer]

I am in favor of a soft full court press, not hell bent on getting turnovers, but one that prevents them from starting their half court offense until there are only 17 seconds on the clock-Gonzaga employed this in the WCC final and it worked almost to perfection. I would absolutely love to get a double digit lead early because it has a good chance of getting St. Mary's out of sorts since they really don't like to play faster. Think of SMU's as a car that rides nicely at 55 MPH, but when it has to go 65 MPH is becomes uncomfortable, and if it goes 90 MPH the whole car starts to shake including the steering wheel.

It would not surprise me to see Diarra get extra minutes today to put more outside pressure on their guards defensively. I just wish while he's playing his D he would stop looking to score and look to get other people the ball.

 

[gsmooth]

I normally agree with this observation, but this may not happen.

1. UCONN is clearly the better team. It's not even debatable. 2. It's not really a neutral court.

The spurtability factor is another problem that Randy Bennett has to deal with. When they rip off a 9-0 run, it's going to be hard to get the ship back in order. St. Mary's isn't equipped to chase points against this team.

very true. St. Mary's really doesn't want to play faster. If UConn can rip a 9-0 run against them to take a big lead would be grand. But there is no certainty that they can do that or it will happen. Remember if my aunt had balls she would be my uncle.

 

[BarkingDog]

So we have that going for us. Which is nice.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Well, the UConn -3.5 + Over 129 parlay I suggested didn't pan out (didn't think St. Mary's would struggle that badly offensively, of course losing their leading scorer didn't help), but I was right that this game wouldn't be close and it's worthwhile to lay a few additional points if you were taking UConn ATS.