UConn -3.5 St. Marys

[Tenspro2002]

Another angle here is that I think this game is fairly "diagonal" (my term) with respect to the total.

If it's low-scoring, that likely favors St. Mary's. If it's high-scoring, that likely favors us.

I would think about parlaying UConn -3.5 + Over 129 or St. Mary's +3.5 + Under 129.

DK has a CBB 32% boost package that includes same game parlays, which you could take advantage of here.

 

[Ripper32]

 

[gsmooth]

My take, and it’s why I didn’t touch the line even when I saw it at -3, St. Mary’s limits possessions and plays slow. So the pace alone could mean you won’t get to those larger margins. Obviously UConn needs to change that if it can. Nobody wants to be in a 3 point game late.

I want to see UConn with an early lead, which might speed St. Mary’s up. Can’t come out slow today.

I am in favor of a soft full court press, not hell bent on getting turnovers, but one that prevents them from starting their half court offense until there are only 17 seconds on the clock-Gonzaga employed this in the WCC final and it worked almost to perfection. I would absolutely love to get a double digit lead early because it has a good chance of getting St. Mary's out of sorts since they really don't like to play faster. Think of SMU's as a car that rides nicely at 55 MPH, but when it has to go 65 MPH is becomes uncomfortable, and if it goes 90 MPH the whole car starts to shake including the steering wheel.

 

[businesslawyer]

I am in favor of a soft full court press, not hell bent on getting turnovers, but one that prevents them from starting their half court offense until there are only 17 seconds on the clock-Gonzaga employed this in the WCC final and it worked almost to perfection. I would absolutely love to get a double digit lead early because it has a good chance of getting St. Mary's out of sorts since they really don't like to play faster. Think of SMU's as a car that rides nicely at 55 MPH, but when it has to go 65 MPH is becomes uncomfortable, and if it goes 90 MPH the whole car starts to shake including the steering wheel.

It would not surprise me to see Diarra get extra minutes today to put more outside pressure on their guards defensively. I just wish while he's playing his D he would stop looking to score and look to get other people the ball.

 

[gsmooth]

I normally agree with this observation, but this may not happen.

1. UCONN is clearly the better team. It's not even debatable. 2. It's not really a neutral court.

The spurtability factor is another problem that Randy Bennett has to deal with. When they rip off a 9-0 run, it's going to be hard to get the ship back in order. St. Mary's isn't equipped to chase points against this team.

very true. St. Mary's really doesn't want to play faster. If UConn can rip a 9-0 run against them to take a big lead would be grand. But there is no certainty that they can do that or it will happen. Remember if my aunt had balls she would be my uncle.

 

[BarkingDog]

So we have that going for us. Which is nice.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Well, the UConn -3.5 + Over 129 parlay I suggested didn't pan out (didn't think St. Mary's would struggle that badly offensively, of course losing their leading scorer didn't help), but I was right that this game wouldn't be close and it's worthwhile to lay a few additional points if you were taking UConn ATS.