UConn -10.5 @ Seton Hall

[HuskyHawk]

No way in hell we beat top 10 Gonzaga on the road by 13 but only a 10.5 favorite against Seton Hall. Vegas knows something.

They know that Missouri is pretty good and Seton Hall just beat them. I think it's hard to predict this one and league road games are rarely blowouts for the favored team.

 

[Mr. French]

Down to 8.5 or 8… I’ve got a 4.5 / o138.5 parlay but I’m confident they’ll win this game - Coach isn’t letting us start the league season with a loss.

 

[mauconnfan]

Away game, team that’s playing better as of late and always afraid of Big East refereeing. They love the home underdog when a run begins and join the roll especially versus Hurley.

This game will tell me a ton more about this team than Gonzaga quite honestly!

 

[AD DB Burner]

They know that Missouri is pretty good and Seton Hall just beat them. I think it's hard to predict this one and league road games are rarely blowouts for the favored team.

Missouri isn’t that good and that is the only top 100 team Seton Hall has beaten. Both Mizzou and Seton Hall are ranked similarly around 80-90 on the analytical sites.

 

[Jimdish255]

Down to 8.5 or 8… I’ve got a 4.5 / o138.5 parlay but I’m confident they’ll win this game - Coach isn’t letting us start the league season with a loss.

I like your approach because regardless of how we shoot in their building I think we grind them down and win by at least 6 even on a stale night. Playing the straight line on the road during a holiday week just seems to give Hall a puncher's chance to keep it close while they could also lose by 15 to 20.

 

[Mr. French]

I like your approach because regardless of how we shoot in their building I think we grind them down and win by at least 6 even on a stale night. Playing the straight line on the road during a holiday week just seems to give Hall a puncher's chance to keep it close while they could also lose by 15 to 20.

That’s how I feel - I’m leery on HOW we win but I think we’ll win and it’s probably at least low-mid 70s. Maybe it’s 74-68 or something.

 

[dannyHAM]

I hope you win, but teasing basketball is generally a losing strategy long term.

THIS.. Do not ever TEASE basketball. The totals in college basketball are so HIGH, and the games are so VOLATILE that it never makes sense. The only sport you should ever really tease is NFL and even then theres a science to it.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Big reverse line movement on this one. Down to 8.5 with money pouring in on UConn.

Wait a sec. If it's down to 8.5, doesn't that mean a ton of money was coming in on SH?

 

[Mr. French]

That’s how I feel - I’m leery on HOW we win but I think we’ll win and it’s probably at least low-mid 70s. Maybe it’s 74-68 or something.

PS it could also be something like 78-65.

 

[Palatine]

I watched some of Seton Hall/Missouri. SHU looked very shaky with the ball and finished with 15 TOs. The average a little over 12 TOs a game. I think live ball TOs by SHU will play a role tonight.

 

[Waquoit]

I hope you win, but teasing basketball is generally a losing strategy long term.

Teasing anything is a bad strategy. Good article here about how the sportsbook operators are making more money than projected because US bettors are all a bunch of losers. Anyway, this game seems ripe for the backdoor cover. That building is dead, especially if UConn is up say 15 with 3 minutes left. Our subs miss a couple, theirs make a couple...

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

The line closed around 3.5/4 against Gonzaga. Vegas oddsmakers typically won't make big adjustments to power ratings from game to game.

For context, the three CBB analytical sites I generally look at, all have the game around 10.

KenPom has UConn by 10.
Bartorvik has UConn by 8 and also by 12 if you remove all priors.
Haslametrics has UConn by 9.

I guess the regular analytics backing this up makes me more comfortable because just eyeballing it, I don’t see how this isn’t another double digit blowout.

Big reverse line movement on this one. Down to 8.5 with money pouring in on UConn.

This makes me worry even more. Vegas typically only does this if they feel like it will make them more money.

Not saying we’ll lose, but it may be a close game for no reason. My tinfoil hat is all the way on for this one.

 

[auror]

The thing about a line around 10.5 is that we could lead comfortably and still fail to cover.

We could lead by 10-15 throughout and give back a little in garbage time while being indifferent about scoring.

We could lead by 7-10 throughout, get into the "foul vortex" at the end where SH will try to score, but will give up on fouling us if the lead is 9-10 under 30 seconds, and we'll just dribble it out.

If the game is remotely competitive down the stretch, you're relying on luck to push the lead to 11.

Edit: one way you could play this is to wait for us to get a small early lead and then take Seton Hall +12.5 or whatever. They'll cover in any non-blowout.

Are you worried about the Dan Hurley-era Huskies building a double digit lead or being able to hold one against a backdoor cover?

 

[Tenspro2002]

Are you worried about the Dan Hurley-era Huskies building a double digit lead or being able to hold one against a backdoor cover?

Not particularly. But I would pick SH +10.5 or UConn -8.5. I think there's a high likelihood of the margin ending up at 9 or 10.

 

[bendm]

Is Providence better than Seton Hall?

PC beat wisconsin and marquette

 

[HeGotGame]

Wait a sec. If it's down to 8.5, doesn't that mean a ton of money was coming in on SH?

No, not always, its called reverse line movement.

83% of the money is on UConn right now.

 

[HuskyNan]

?????? Seton Hall over UConn???

Vegas heard about the unis

 

[Tenspro2002]

No, not always, its called reverse line movement.

83% of the money is on UConn right now.

Most of the money was on UConn, so they...lowered the line...to get even more money on UConn?

 

[ucp990411]

This game will tougher than lots of you seem to think

 

[HeGotGame]

Most of the money was on UConn, so they...lowered the line...to get even more money on UConn?

Already down to -8 and 75% UConn money.

Respected money is betting SH while the public pounds UConn.

 

[FlakeyFoont]

Parlay with moneyline and over (140.5) +139 on Bovada.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Already down to -8 and 75% UConn money.

Respected money is betting SH while the public pounds UConn.

I put a little on SH +10.5 last night expecting to do more today (e.g. the Draftkings daily no-sweat SGPx), but now I'm thinking I might actually bet it on us -8 along with the Over.

I think this game will be something like 79-69.

 

[NickDanger]

My analysis of Vegas spreads is completely vibes and conspiracy based.

I’ve lost enough parlays by 1 leg/1 point,reb,ast, etc. to feel be a conspiracist at this point.

Just lost another parlay because Jayson “I’m addicted to settling for 3s” Tatum couldn’t score 25 smh.

"I’ve lost enough parlays by 1 leg/1 point,reb,ast, etc."
If these lines are being set reasonably, you'd expect to lose a lot by 1!

 

[Karmacop]

This game will tougher than lots of you seem to think

Agreed. This is a tough Q2 game on the road against a very good opponent. I'm hoping for something like a 10-point victory, but expecting a battle. I think UConn wins, but maybe by something more like 5-6 points with it being tight the entire way.

 

[NickDanger]

No way in hell we beat top 10 Gonzaga on the road by 13 but only a 10.5 favorite against Seton Hall. Vegas knows something.

They set the point spread to get a roughly even number of bets on each side. What they "know" is how the bets are coming in.