UConn -10.5 @ Seton Hall | The Boneyard

UConn -10.5 @ Seton Hall

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Tenspro2002

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This seems like a lot for a Big East road game, but what do I know.

I love Over 141.5 in this game. We are both better offensive teams than defensive teams, Richmond is probably going to go off again, and the bad guys just played a 93-87 game.
 
Is Providence better than Seton Hall? That is a lot of points. It’s conference time and everything changes just like that….I like UConn but until we get a few league games under our belts I will be nervous.
 
They have had a very soft schedule and haven't faced anyone like UConn and haven't been battle tested with top 10 teams like we have. The speed and force they're about to face is going to whip their heads in circles.

Watching us play against Kansas, UNC and Gonzaga? I have a hard time seeing how they're going to keep this under 20.

Could we get caught napping? Maybe. Could Holloway have them super pumped for this being their "Super Bowl"? Sure.

I'll take us and lay the -10.5. WE'RE A WAGON UNTIL SOMEONE SAYS OTHERWISE. Ride the wave.

(The Deepster is 5-1 ATS so far this season)
 
Tom Hardy Bait GIF
 
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No way in hell we beat top 10 Gonzaga on the road by 13 but only a 10.5 favorite against Seton Hall. Vegas knows something.
 
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Bboy Lace said:
Marquette was -4.5 favorite over Providence and lost by 15. What do they know?
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That’s exactly my point because why would Marquette only be favored by -4.5 to Providence???
 
These are the games of the year for SH and St. John’s so we’ve gotta have great effort in both games. Just do that and win. Blank the spread.
 
HuskyWarrior611 said:
No way in hell we beat top 10 Gonzaga on the road by 13 but only a 10.5 favorite against Seton Hall. Vegas knows something.
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Vegas knows conference play is completely different. Not sure there is an algorithm or AI that can figure out why that is but who would have predicted the beat down PC put on Marquette last night. Not me…… but I did pick up a few things watching Marquette struggle. Did AJ ever cover Kolek last year? I think we could put Castle on him and have some success.
 
I listened to one CBB pick sites "the college experience" and they were taking Seton Hall and the points because they said Alex Karaban's finger is banged up and that we lost last year. Don't think they realized that Karaban also scored twenty with that same injured finger a few games ago and then we will most likely have a full strength squad tonight
 
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SilentDog said:
Vegas knows conference play is completely different. Not sure there is an algorithm or AI that can figure out why that is but who would have predicted the beat down PC put on Marquette last night. Not me…… but I did pick up a few things watching Marquette struggle. Did AJ ever cover Kolek last year? I think we could put Castle on him and have some success.
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My analysis of Vegas spreads is completely vibes and conspiracy based.

I’ve lost enough parlays by 1 leg/1 point,reb,ast, etc. to feel be a conspiracist at this point.

Just lost another parlay because Jayson “I’m addicted to settling for 3s” Tatum couldn’t score 25 smh.
 
The thing about a line around 10.5 is that we could lead comfortably and still fail to cover.

We could lead by 10-15 throughout and give back a little in garbage time while being indifferent about scoring.

We could lead by 7-10 throughout, get into the "foul vortex" at the end where SH will try to score, but will give up on fouling us if the lead is 9-10 under 30 seconds, and we'll just dribble it out.

If the game is remotely competitive down the stretch, you're relying on luck to push the lead to 11.

Edit: one way you could play this is to wait for us to get a small early lead and then take Seton Hall +12.5 or whatever. They'll cover in any non-blowout.
 
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HuskyWarrior611 said:
No way in hell we beat top 10 Gonzaga on the road by 13 but only a 10.5 favorite against Seton Hall. Vegas knows something.
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The line closed around 3.5/4 against Gonzaga. Vegas oddsmakers typically won't make big adjustments to power ratings from game to game.

For context, the three CBB analytical sites I generally look at, all have the game around 10.

KenPom has UConn by 10.
Bartorvik has UConn by 8 and also by 12 if you remove all priors.
Haslametrics has UConn by 9.
 
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Big reverse line movement on this one. Down to 8.5 with money pouring in on UConn.
 
HuskyWarrior611 said:
No way in hell we beat top 10 Gonzaga on the road by 13 but only a 10.5 favorite against Seton Hall. Vegas knows something.
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They know that Missouri is pretty good and Seton Hall just beat them. I think it's hard to predict this one and league road games are rarely blowouts for the favored team.
 
Down to 8.5 or 8… I’ve got a 4.5 / o138.5 parlay but I’m confident they’ll win this game - Coach isn’t letting us start the league season with a loss.
 
Away game, team that’s playing better as of late and always afraid of Big East refereeing. They love the home underdog when a run begins and join the roll especially versus Hurley.

This game will tell me a ton more about this team than Gonzaga quite honestly!
 
HuskyHawk said:
They know that Missouri is pretty good and Seton Hall just beat them. I think it's hard to predict this one and league road games are rarely blowouts for the favored team.
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Missouri isn’t that good and that is the only top 100 team Seton Hall has beaten. Both Mizzou and Seton Hall are ranked similarly around 80-90 on the analytical sites.
 
Mr. French said:
Down to 8.5 or 8… I’ve got a 4.5 / o138.5 parlay but I’m confident they’ll win this game - Coach isn’t letting us start the league season with a loss.
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I like your approach because regardless of how we shoot in their building I think we grind them down and win by at least 6 even on a stale night. Playing the straight line on the road during a holiday week just seems to give Hall a puncher's chance to keep it close while they could also lose by 15 to 20.
 
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