UCLA goes down to Utah | Page 2 | The Boneyard

UCLA goes down to Utah

Quiet sports night yesterday here at the homestead, so we watched the game. As much recognition as Pili gets, I kept screaming when she went into the paint with at least two defenders blocking the way, and then forcing up a shot. Is this normal? is she expecting a call? Perhaps this wasn't a good representation of her skill set, however we both were a bit unimpressed.
 
Quiet sports night yesterday here at the homestead, so we watched the game. As much recognition as Pili gets, I kept screaming when she went into the paint with at least two defenders blocking the way, and then forcing up a shot. Is this normal? is she expecting a call? Perhaps this wasn't a good representation of her skill set, however we both were a bit unimpressed.
I don't think it was one of her better games, but other times I have seen her play I've been very impressed overall.
 
nd create fancier and fancier databases to



OPINION: No. They are actually 4th in the country based on allowing only 52.1 points per game. Pace doesn't matter in determining who wins 40 minute games. Time does. Pace is meaningless. Whoever scores most and limits their opponents the most in 40 minutes wins.

You are a great poster but you buy into the algorithm driven push to over analyze the game. I don't. it's all opinion.

The reason points per game not adjusted is meaningless to me in terms of how good of a defense you have is that it doesn't take into account offense impacts on scoring.
  • Team A: pushes pace averages 80 possessions a game and holds teams to 70 points per game
  • Team B: slows the game down averages 60 possessions per game and holds a team to 70 points per game
Non-adjusted those teams look similar defensively but team A is a vastly better defensive team.
 
The reason points per game not adjusted is meaningless to me in terms of how good of a defense you have is that it doesn't take into account offense impacts on scoring.
  • Team A: pushes pace averages 80 possessions a game and holds teams to 70 points per game
  • Team B: slows the game down averages 60 possessions per game and holds a team to 70 points per game
Non-adjusted those teams look similar defensively but team A is a vastly better defensive team.
But not to me. Regardless of the pace they have both done the same job. They have held their opponent to the same score. in 40 minutes of play. Number of possessions does not affect the win or loss. Only the score matters.
 
The reason points per game not adjusted is meaningless to me in terms of how good of a defense you have is that it doesn't take into account offense impacts on scoring.
  • Team A: pushes pace averages 80 possessions a game and holds teams to 70 points per game
  • Team B: slows the game down averages 60 possessions per game and holds a team to 70 points per game
Non-adjusted those teams look similar defensively but team A is a vastly better defensive team.
But not to me. Regardless of the pace they have both done the same job. They have held their opponent to the same score. in 40 minutes of play. Number of possessions does not affect the win or loss. Only the score matters.

Points per possession would seem like a better metric. Team A's defense gives up 0.875 pt per possession, while Team B gives up 1.167.
Team A significantly better defense.
 
But not to me. Regardless of the pace they have both done the same job. They have held their opponent to the same score. in 40 minutes of play. Number of possessions does not affect the win or loss. Only the score matters.
They haven't done the same job though. One team gave them selves a much better chance to win the game than other.
 
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Points per possession would seem like a better metric. Team A's defense gives up 0.875 pt per possession, while Team B gives up 1.167.
Team A significantly better defense.
Points per possession is exactly what adjusted defensive efficiency is which is what I am advocating for.
 
If an unimpressive team built up a 20+ point lead over UConn, I fear how we would fare against an impressive team.
We played UCLA when we were dismantled with Injuries. I would welcome to play them now.
 
Tony: I know you love your UConn defense and it is good. However, K-State's defense is pretty good too. K-State is 3rd in scoring defense in the nation. That's dadgumm good especially since they have played Iowa- twice. UConn is 64th in scoring defense.

If you want to look at Massey's defensive efficiency to account for UConn's tougher schedule, UConn is ranked at 5th and K-State 7th. Pretty dadgum close.

Simply put, K-States defense is not bad, It's very good. It may slightly off without their anchor, Lee, but they still held a ranked team to 55 points without her.

Maybe you are right K-State is not the #4 team. Coaches Poll just ranked them number 2!
Youve brought up some good points. Their star is out. UConns 5 stars are out and UConn is clicking. I would like to face KState but that wont happen. Maybe it will take a few games for KState to adapt to their star not being on the floor and I understand that because UConn has had to do that too. Last nites game against Baylor did not impress me either team did not impress me. UConn is right now at a completely different level then most teams in WCBB. Can you imagine what could happen next season if UConn is healthy?
 
They haven't done the same job though. One team gave them selves a much better chance to win the game than other.
I think what visitingcock is trying to say is that the game has varying strategies used to win. One of the defensive strategies could be to limit the number of possessions by using the entire clock on offense. So while your numbers would be accurate if both teams had the same amount of opportunities, it isn't based in reality because the game is dictated by how those minutes are strategically used. I think you both are arguing different metrics. You're argument is basically like gathering data from a science experiment conducted a vacuum, whereas visitingcock is trying to measure outcomes with all potential factors that may affect the end result in a realistic scenario. Part of being an elite defense is also limiting turnovers on offense, getting rebounds, limiting the number of possessions, etc. The effects those numbers may have on defensive stats will not be reflected in your data.
 
What about the opposite though? If you are limiting possessions during a game, you are giving yourself less opportunities to score, which makes it harder to win, right? You better be efficient in those limited possessions, or your offensive production isn't going to be very good.

I tend to agree with the point of view that the game is 40 minutes long, how many points you allow in those 40 minutes is the statistic that matters most.
 
What about the opposite though? If you are limiting possessions during a game, you are giving yourself less opportunities to score, which makes it harder to win, right? You better be efficient in those limited possessions, or your offensive production isn't going to be very good.

I tend to agree with the point of view that the game is 40 minutes long, how many points you allow in those 40 minutes is the statistic that matters most.
Because they were having a conversation about defense. :p
 
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I think what visitingcock is trying to say is that the game has varying strategies used to win. One of the defensive strategies could be to limit the number of possessions by using the entire clock on offense. So while your numbers would be accurate if both teams had the same amount of opportunities, it isn't based in reality because the game is dictated by how those minutes are strategically used. I think you both are arguing different metrics. You're argument is basically like gathering data from a science experiment conducted a vacuum, whereas visitingcock is trying to measure outcomes with all potential factors that may affect the end result in a realistic scenario. Part of being an elite defense is also limiting turnovers on offense, getting rebounds, limiting the number of possessions, etc. The effects those numbers may have on defensive stats will not be reflected in your data.
My argument is not gathering data into a a science experiment in any way shape or form. It's literally evaluation how good of a defensive team someone is based on the ability to prevent the other team for scoring. Rebounds, turnovers, etc are ALL factured into my numbers. Visitingcock isn't measuring outcomes at all, just looking at a random number that means very little about how good of a defensive team you are. That in fact is the vacuum number that doesn't account for ANYTHING, including pace.
 
What about the opposite though? If you are limiting possessions during a game, you are giving yourself less opportunities to score, which makes it harder to win, right? You better be efficient in those limited possessions, or your offensive production isn't going to be very good.

I tend to agree with the point of view that the game is 40 minutes long, how many points you allow in those 40 minutes is the statistic that matters most.
I am really trying to understand how that would every be the case. A team that allows less points per possession in a game but averages more points allowed will still allow less points scored on them against a team that allows more points per possession but holds teams to less points. The 40 minute stat can be artificially inflated due to pace of play but the per possession will hold regardless of pace.
 
What about the opposite though? If you are limiting possessions during a game, you are giving yourself less opportunities to score, which makes it harder to win, right? You better be efficient in those limited possessions, or your offensive production isn't going to be very good.

I tend to agree with the point of view that the game is 40 minutes long, how many points you allow in those 40 minutes is the statistic that matters most.

If this were football, where the defense is literally a different team, I’m guessing youd view offense and defense separately, and place greater weight on points per possession.
 
If this were football, where the defense is literally a different team, I’m guessing youd view offense and defense separately, and place greater weight on points per possession.
Points per possession is an extremely important metric in basketball though. It's THE most important number when evaluating defenses (or offenses) against each other and has been for decades at this point. I am shocked so many people are acting like its some junk science and not wildly regarded as the more informative number.
 
I've actually had a chance to watch some of the top teams play now. Overall impressed with all of them, but they also have their weaknesses.
  • Several teams (USC especially) seem to run an offense of "give the ball to 1 person and let her go 1 on 5".
  • Other teams (Baylor specifically) pass the ball crisply around the perimeter and the announcers are like "wow look at that ball movement", but the reality is only the ball is moving. the players are all standing in 1 spot which makes it easy to defend.
  • Some of the teams seem to run a LOT of offense (UCLA (Rice), ND (Hidalgo) and LSU (Reese) specifically) where they pass the ball a bit, then give it to 1 player to try to drive into traffic and draw a foul.
Having said that, several other top teams seem to really try to run some high motion offense (SC, Stanford, NC State) and I'm sure some others who I haven't seen enough of yet (Colorado). Was impressed with K-State as well as Iowa (as much as it's the Clark show, the fact that she routinely gets double digit assists shows she's ball dominant, but very willing to pass for an assist).

A LOT of the defense I've seen has been really good. I watched USC and UCLA and wondered how the guards got any passes off at all. Also, I think if you watch just one game and say "this is how they are", you might be missing the point. Against a team like SC or UCLA who has a giant in the post, the defense and offense will look different than it will against a smaller team.

Our loss to NC State had nothing to do with players being out unless you count Ducharme's 2 points in 14 minutes due to injury. Sure I think UConn is playing much more cohesively now in spite of the incredibly shortened rotation, and I don't think there is much separating most of the top 10 or 15 teams. We could be in the top 2, we could be just out of the top 10.

I'm sometimes surprised at the tendency for UConn fans to say "we look great - everyone else looks like crap", or "we have 'X' player and everyone else kinda sucks". There's a ton of talent out there and a lot of very good coaches. But if you watched our game against Seton Hall and ONLY watched Q1 or Q3, you could easily say "UConn sucks". Sure we won by 24, but lost those Q's by a total of 10.

Bottom line I like where our team is now. I think we could beat anyone out there. But we also could lose to anyone in the top 10 or so. Just ask Mississippi State. I think there are a lot of really good teams out there as well.
 
Unless one team can force turnovers or get steals, won’t there always be the same number of possessions for both teams?
 
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I'm not sure why pace matters much. If you get more possessions so does your opponent, and vice versa. If you win, what is the difference between say 80-72 or 58-50?
 
UCONN is solid & improving. As pointed out by @EricLA so are many teams solid and improving. Parity lives in WCBB, and there really isn't any team that is invincible on a given night. I am a PAC-12 homer, and I ask myself how would a particular team fare in the PAC-12. Can also go the other way and ask how would a particular PAC-12 Team perform in a different conference? Fun to speculate.
 
UCONN is solid & improving. As pointed out by @EricLA so are many teams solid and improving. Parity lives in WCBB, and there really isn't any team that is invincible on a given night. I am a PAC-12 homer, and I ask myself how would a particular team fare in the PAC-12. Can also go the other way and ask how would a particular PAC-12 Team perform in a different conference? Fun to speculate.
I wonder about this a lot too.
  • USC, Colorado, Utah would definitely challenge Marquette and Creighton for 2nd place in the Big East.
  • Ore St, Ore, Arizona would be solid middle of the pack challenging St John's and Villanova for 4th place.
  • Stanford and UCLA would have legit shots at winning the conference.
 

I wonder about this a lot too.
  • USC, Colorado, Utah would definitely challenge Marquette and Creighton for 2nd place in the Big East.
  • Ore St, Ore, Arizona would be solid middle of the pack challenging St John's and Villanova for 4th place.
  • Stanford and UCLA would have legit shots at winning the conference.

I think OreSt is closer to Marq/Creighton level, with USC Utah and especially Colorado better
 
I wonder about this a lot too.
  • USC, Colorado, Utah would definitely challenge Marquette and Creighton for 2nd place in the Big East.
  • Ore St, Ore, Arizona would be solid middle of the pack challenging St John's and Villanova for 4th place.
  • Stanford and UCLA would have legit shots at winning the conference.

Come on dog... Let's be serious for a moment.
 
I think OreSt is closer to Marq/Creighton level, with USC Utah and especially Colorado better
Could be. Utah with Kneepkens would definitely have been better. But overall team speed at Colorado is too slow to dominate Marquette and Creighton. Yes, Sherrod is very quick. But the rest of the team is not, and especially Miller and Vonleh. And they don't have the size to make up for it. That says to me these would be competitive games.

And come on, @triaddukefan, how is this not serious? I like Utah's chances against Marquette and Creighton just because they have pretty good team speed and Pili is really fierce -- Morrow-level fierce and a better perimeter shooter. I mention Morrow just to remind you that the Big East teams have played that sort of opponent and they weren't simply bowled over by her. What's more, Utah has no size advantage and Creighton and Marquette are very scrappy defensive teams. Karlen probably couldn't contain Pili. But she's a handful to defend in her own right. Viera is very quick, and they shoot the 3 really well. But so does Marquette. And this is even more true of Creighton.

The Pac12 teams tend to play pretty good offense, but defense is not a strength the further down the conference you go.

But I could have this all wrong. My only point is that other than Stanford and UCLA, the Pac12 teams would find the middle of the Big East pretty competitive. And other than Utah, I don't think any of them would have a chance at upsetting UConn.
 
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I'm not sure why pace matters much. If you get more possessions so does your opponent, and vice versa. If you win, what is the difference between say 80-72 or 58-50?
It’s not about pace! It’s about adjusting the reality of your defense based on pace. If you play 60 possessions a game and the offense scores on 50 of those possessions your defense is terrible. On the other hand if you play 100 posssions a game and the offense scores on 50 of them you aren’t terrible. But without the context of PACE those two defenses looks the same when they are just unadjusted scoring numbers.
 
Unlike UCLA, which has been sipping mai thais on the beach for the last 2 months.

I'm not in the habit of disrespecting teams that kicked our butts, but you do you.
The team that lost 3 games and the one that hasn't lost is different, different starters, Geno has had to rework line-up, defense, offense and Paige is back from a 1-1\2 year being out. Not disrespectful just stating facts. .
 
What about the opposite though? If you are limiting possessions during a game, you are giving yourself less opportunities to score, which makes it harder to win, right? You better be efficient in those limited possessions, or your offensive production isn't going to be very good.
In theory, slower pace of play would limit possessions for both teams. That per se doesn't make offensive efficiency more important, because regardless it's always relative to defensive efficiency.
 
I thought the in game coaching for UCLA was suspect. It was as if Betts wasn't even on the team. Pili never started scoring until the second half when Close pulled Betts. Betts really needs to learn how to pass out of double and triple teams.

I find the Utah offensive strategy interesting. All 3s and lay ups. No mid range at all. It is so strange to see them all retreat to the 3 pt line on an offensive rebound.
This has always been a problem for UCLA. Close is a much better recruiter than she is a coach! She has underachieved over and over with her often very talented roster. Now, she has the aircraft carrier everyone wants and exceptional talent around her. In addition to this, she has yet another monster class coming in next year! Plus, yet another supremely talented big a year later!
It’s going to be very interesting to see if she can finally translate overwhelming talent on the floor into a title! With that much talent, I probably wouldn’t bet against it happening but, I wouldn’t bet on it either. Her players imo, though often very talented, tend to play a lot of individual, one on one style basketball and do not imo grow as much as their talent would warrant.
 
I'm not sure why pace matters much. If you get more possessions so does your opponent, and vice versa. If you win, what is the difference between say 80-72 or 58-50?
I find this comment funny now after the South Carolina men's team beat Kentucky last night in part due to pace of play. Kentucky likes to play fast but we made them defend us for 30 seconds each possession which then made them uncharacteristically tired and sloppy on offense, and prevented them from gaining any sense of offensive rhythm. Conversation about pace were the highlight of the halftime report as well as the post game conversations. South Carolina dictating the pace of play led to a better defensive performance.
 
Could be. Utah with Kneepkens would definitely have been better. But overall team speed at Colorado is too slow to dominate Marquette and Creighton. Yes, Sherrod is very quick. But the rest of the team is not, and especially Miller and Vonleh. And they don't have the size to make up for it. That says to me these would be competitive games.

And come on, @triaddukefan, how is this not serious? I like Utah's chances against Marquette and Creighton just because they have pretty good team speed and Pili is really fierce -- Morrow-level fierce and a better perimeter shooter. I mention Morrow just to remind you that the Big East teams have played that sort of opponent and they weren't simply bowled over by her. What's more, Utah has no size advantage and Creighton and Marquette are very scrappy defensive teams. Karlen probably couldn't contain Pili. But she's a handful to defend in her own right. Viera is very quick, and they shoot the 3 really well. But so does Marquette. And this is even more true of Creighton.

The Pac12 teams tend to play pretty good offense, but defense is not a strength the further down the conference you go.

But I could have this all wrong. My only point is that other than Stanford and UCLA, the Pac12 teams would find the middle of the Big East pretty competitive. And other than Utah, I don't think any of them would have a chance at upsetting UConn.
I look forward to the NCAA Tournament so we can see the various conference teams compete vs other conference teams. I see I am not the only biased conference homer.
 
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