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UCLA goes down to Utah

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UCONN is solid & improving. As pointed out by @EricLA so are many teams solid and improving. Parity lives in WCBB, and there really isn't any team that is invincible on a given night. I am a PAC-12 homer, and I ask myself how would a particular team fare in the PAC-12. Can also go the other way and ask how would a particular PAC-12 Team perform in a different conference? Fun to speculate.
I wonder about this a lot too.
  • USC, Colorado, Utah would definitely challenge Marquette and Creighton for 2nd place in the Big East.
  • Ore St, Ore, Arizona would be solid middle of the pack challenging St John's and Villanova for 4th place.
  • Stanford and UCLA would have legit shots at winning the conference.
 
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I wonder about this a lot too.
  • USC, Colorado, Utah would definitely challenge Marquette and Creighton for 2nd place in the Big East.
  • Ore St, Ore, Arizona would be solid middle of the pack challenging St John's and Villanova for 4th place.
  • Stanford and UCLA would have legit shots at winning the conference.

I think OreSt is closer to Marq/Creighton level, with USC Utah and especially Colorado better
 

triaddukefan

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I wonder about this a lot too.
  • USC, Colorado, Utah would definitely challenge Marquette and Creighton for 2nd place in the Big East.
  • Ore St, Ore, Arizona would be solid middle of the pack challenging St John's and Villanova for 4th place.
  • Stanford and UCLA would have legit shots at winning the conference.

Come on dog... Let's be serious for a moment.
 
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I think OreSt is closer to Marq/Creighton level, with USC Utah and especially Colorado better
Could be. Utah with Kneepkens would definitely have been better. But overall team speed at Colorado is too slow to dominate Marquette and Creighton. Yes, Sherrod is very quick. But the rest of the team is not, and especially Miller and Vonleh. And they don't have the size to make up for it. That says to me these would be competitive games.

And come on, @triaddukefan, how is this not serious? I like Utah's chances against Marquette and Creighton just because they have pretty good team speed and Pili is really fierce -- Morrow-level fierce and a better perimeter shooter. I mention Morrow just to remind you that the Big East teams have played that sort of opponent and they weren't simply bowled over by her. What's more, Utah has no size advantage and Creighton and Marquette are very scrappy defensive teams. Karlen probably couldn't contain Pili. But she's a handful to defend in her own right. Viera is very quick, and they shoot the 3 really well. But so does Marquette. And this is even more true of Creighton.

The Pac12 teams tend to play pretty good offense, but defense is not a strength the further down the conference you go.

But I could have this all wrong. My only point is that other than Stanford and UCLA, the Pac12 teams would find the middle of the Big East pretty competitive. And other than Utah, I don't think any of them would have a chance at upsetting UConn.
 
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I'm not sure why pace matters much. If you get more possessions so does your opponent, and vice versa. If you win, what is the difference between say 80-72 or 58-50?
It’s not about pace! It’s about adjusting the reality of your defense based on pace. If you play 60 possessions a game and the offense scores on 50 of those possessions your defense is terrible. On the other hand if you play 100 posssions a game and the offense scores on 50 of them you aren’t terrible. But without the context of PACE those two defenses looks the same when they are just unadjusted scoring numbers.
 

npignatjr

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Unlike UCLA, which has been sipping mai thais on the beach for the last 2 months.

I'm not in the habit of disrespecting teams that kicked our butts, but you do you.
The team that lost 3 games and the one that hasn't lost is different, different starters, Geno has had to rework line-up, defense, offense and Paige is back from a 1-1\2 year being out. Not disrespectful just stating facts. .
 

Plebe

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What about the opposite though? If you are limiting possessions during a game, you are giving yourself less opportunities to score, which makes it harder to win, right? You better be efficient in those limited possessions, or your offensive production isn't going to be very good.
In theory, slower pace of play would limit possessions for both teams. That per se doesn't make offensive efficiency more important, because regardless it's always relative to defensive efficiency.
 
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I thought the in game coaching for UCLA was suspect. It was as if Betts wasn't even on the team. Pili never started scoring until the second half when Close pulled Betts. Betts really needs to learn how to pass out of double and triple teams.

I find the Utah offensive strategy interesting. All 3s and lay ups. No mid range at all. It is so strange to see them all retreat to the 3 pt line on an offensive rebound.
This has always been a problem for UCLA. Close is a much better recruiter than she is a coach! She has underachieved over and over with her often very talented roster. Now, she has the aircraft carrier everyone wants and exceptional talent around her. In addition to this, she has yet another monster class coming in next year! Plus, yet another supremely talented big a year later!
It’s going to be very interesting to see if she can finally translate overwhelming talent on the floor into a title! With that much talent, I probably wouldn’t bet against it happening but, I wouldn’t bet on it either. Her players imo, though often very talented, tend to play a lot of individual, one on one style basketball and do not imo grow as much as their talent would warrant.
 
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I'm not sure why pace matters much. If you get more possessions so does your opponent, and vice versa. If you win, what is the difference between say 80-72 or 58-50?
I find this comment funny now after the South Carolina men's team beat Kentucky last night in part due to pace of play. Kentucky likes to play fast but we made them defend us for 30 seconds each possession which then made them uncharacteristically tired and sloppy on offense, and prevented them from gaining any sense of offensive rhythm. Conversation about pace were the highlight of the halftime report as well as the post game conversations. South Carolina dictating the pace of play led to a better defensive performance.
 
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Could be. Utah with Kneepkens would definitely have been better. But overall team speed at Colorado is too slow to dominate Marquette and Creighton. Yes, Sherrod is very quick. But the rest of the team is not, and especially Miller and Vonleh. And they don't have the size to make up for it. That says to me these would be competitive games.

And come on, @triaddukefan, how is this not serious? I like Utah's chances against Marquette and Creighton just because they have pretty good team speed and Pili is really fierce -- Morrow-level fierce and a better perimeter shooter. I mention Morrow just to remind you that the Big East teams have played that sort of opponent and they weren't simply bowled over by her. What's more, Utah has no size advantage and Creighton and Marquette are very scrappy defensive teams. Karlen probably couldn't contain Pili. But she's a handful to defend in her own right. Viera is very quick, and they shoot the 3 really well. But so does Marquette. And this is even more true of Creighton.

The Pac12 teams tend to play pretty good offense, but defense is not a strength the further down the conference you go.

But I could have this all wrong. My only point is that other than Stanford and UCLA, the Pac12 teams would find the middle of the Big East pretty competitive. And other than Utah, I don't think any of them would have a chance at upsetting UConn.
I look forward to the NCAA Tournament so we can see the various conference teams compete vs other conference teams. I see I am not the only biased conference homer.
 

bbsamjj

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This has always been a problem for UCLA. Close is a much better recruiter than she is a coach! She has underachieved over and over with her often very talented roster. Now, she has the aircraft carrier everyone wants and exceptional talent around her. In addition to this, she has yet another monster class coming in next year! Plus, yet another supremely talented big a year later!
It’s going to be very interesting to see if she can finally translate overwhelming talent on the floor into a title! With that much talent, I probably wouldn’t bet against it happening but, I wouldn’t bet on it either. Her players imo, though often very talented, tend to play a lot of individual, one on one style basketball and do not imo grow as much as their talent would warrant.
I believe Betts came out of the game around 3min left in 4th quarter, with UCLA still down 5, and without her they made their move to send it to OT (And almost win). Close made the decision to stick with that lineup in OT, which didn't end up working (in part because UCLA kept sending Utah to the FT line), but it wasn't like Betts was dominating at all beforehand.

I'm interested in the idea that Close has "underachieved" at UCLA. She's been to the Sweet 16 a ton, and to my memory, no one has ever thought of them as final 4 talent at any point. which teams do you think underachieved?
 
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I believe Betts came out of the game around 3min left in 4th quarter, with UCLA still down 5, and without her they made their move to send it to OT (And almost win). Close made the decision to stick with that lineup in OT, which didn't end up working (in part because UCLA kept sending Utah to the FT line), but it wasn't like Betts was dominating at all beforehand.

I'm interested in the idea that Close has "underachieved" at UCLA. She's been to the Sweet 16 a ton, and to my memory, no one has ever thought of them as final 4 talent at any point. which teams do you think underachieved?
No opinion on whther she's underachieved, but about 5-10 years ago she had a blockbuster, off-the-charts recruiting class. I thought they'd be final4 contenders from their soph-senior year. I dont recall what happened -- injuries? transfers? -- but dont believe they made a final 8 and not sure how many, if any, sweet 16s.
 
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ahh, it was 2014

hs2014.png


Jordin Canada
Lajahna Drummer
Recee Caldwell
Monique Billings
Kelli Hayes

and preceded/followup by decent classes as well
 

Plebe

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No opinion on whther she's underachieved, but about 5-10 years ago she had a blockbuster, off-the-charts recruiting class. I thought they'd be final4 contenders from their soph-senior year. I dont recall what happened -- injuries? transfers? -- but dont believe they made a final 8 and not sure how many, if any, sweet 16s.
You're thinking of her 2014 class with 3 McDonald's AAs plus two other top 40 recruits (per HG), headlined by Jordin Canada.

One of the McDAAs (Recee Caldwell) transferred after freshman year. Another (Drummer) was plagued by injuries most of her college career. Kelli Hayes (#26 HG) was so-so, but Monique Billings (#38) exceeded expectations and became the co-star of the team along with Canada.

This class did make the final 8 in 2018. They also made two Sweet 16s before that.

It was a good class, but not as good as projected when you factor in the loss of Caldwell and the injuries to Drummer. The major problem is that the recruiting before and after 2015 wasn't good enough to support the star duo of Canada-Billings. Kennedy Burke (2015 class) was a solid contributor but they had little else, and virtually no depth.
 
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bbsamjj

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Yeah it seems like that class's first year they were WNIT Champions.

As sophomores: Sweet 16 [#3 seed in NCAA tournament, lost to #2 seed TX]
As juniors: Sweet 16 [#4 seed in NCAA tournament, lost to #1 seed UConn]
As seniors: Elite 8 [#3 seed in NCAA tournament, upset #2 seed TX before losing to #1 seed and national runnerup Miss St]


Defer to our Pac12 fans if any of these seasons UCLA drastically underperformed.
 

TheFarmFan

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Yeah it seems like that class's first year they were WNIT Champions.

As sophomores: Sweet 16 [#3 seed in NCAA tournament, lost to #2 seed TX]
As juniors: Sweet 16 [#4 seed in NCAA tournament, lost to #1 seed UConn]
As seniors: Elite 8 [#3 seed in NCAA tournament, upset #2 seed TX before losing to #1 seed and national runnerup Miss St]


Defer to our Pac12 fans if any of these seasons UCLA drastically underperformed.
In my mind, I don't think Close particularly over or underpeforms. Mostly I just don't think her teams improve much over the season, so by postseason other teams are just much more locked in. (literally think about how UConn is now vs. November when technically they have less personnel available now!)

And I think UCLA under Close stands in contrast to several other Pac-12 programs that overperformed and reached final fours with significantly less recruiting talent (Cal, OreSU, Washington), so she mostly suffers by comparison than against some abstract goalpost.
 

Plebe

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Yeah it seems like that class's first year they were WNIT Champions.

As sophomores: Sweet 16 [#3 seed in NCAA tournament, lost to #2 seed TX]
As juniors: Sweet 16 [#4 seed in NCAA tournament, lost to #1 seed UConn]
As seniors: Elite 8 [#3 seed in NCAA tournament, upset #2 seed TX before losing to #1 seed and national runnerup Miss St]


Defer to our Pac12 fans if any of these seasons UCLA drastically underperformed.
I'm not a fan of Close as an X's and O's coach, but I don't see those results as significantly under-performing. They hit that “second weekend” ceiling in the NCAA Tournament due to a combination of factors, including lack of roster depth, injuries to key players, and not the greatest coaching.

To be fair, those were two very good teams they lost to in 2017 and 2018.
 
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In my mind, I don't think Close particularly over or underpeforms. Mostly I just don't think her teams improve much over the season, so by postseason other teams are just much more locked in. (literally think about how UConn is now vs. November when technically they have less personnel available now!)

And I think UCLA under Close stands in contrast to several other Pac-12 programs that overperformed and reached final fours with significantly less recruiting talent (Cal, OreSU, Washington), so she mostly suffers by comparison than against some abstract goalpost.
I also think players don't develop or grow much year over year either with Close so I struggle to understand why big time players go there. She gets great talent and then they seem to just stay around the same level all 4 years, which is good solid even great college players but it always feels like there is another level they can tap into that they never reach.
 
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UCLA has some pretty good talent still playing in the WNBA: Michaela Onyenwere, Jordin Canada, Monique Billings. Probably more, but these 3 are solid UCLA grads in WNBA
 

bbsamjj

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Looking at just a few examples, seems like players at UCLA can make big sophomore jumps (see Billings, Onyenwere, a lot of the sophs on this year's team)...but maybe level out after that. Jordin Canada did become a decent shooter by the time she graduated, though who knows who much of that was Close.
 
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Could be. Utah with Kneepkens would definitely have been better. But overall team speed at Colorado is too slow to dominate Marquette and Creighton. Yes, Sherrod is very quick. But the rest of the team is not, and especially Miller and Vonleh. And they don't have the size to make up for it. That says to me these would be competitive games.

And come on, @triaddukefan, how is this not serious? I like Utah's chances against Marquette and Creighton just because they have pretty good team speed and Pili is really fierce -- Morrow-level fierce and a better perimeter shooter. I mention Morrow just to remind you that the Big East teams have played that sort of opponent and they weren't simply bowled over by her. What's more, Utah has no size advantage and Creighton and Marquette are very scrappy defensive teams. Karlen probably couldn't contain Pili. But she's a handful to defend in her own right. Viera is very quick, and they shoot the 3 really well. But so does Marquette. And this is even more true of Creighton.

The Pac12 teams tend to play pretty good offense, but defense is not a strength the further down the conference you go.

But I could have this all wrong. My only point is that other than Stanford and UCLA, the Pac12 teams would find the middle of the Big East pretty competitive. And other than Utah, I don't think any of them would have a chance at upsetting UConn.
I don't know that the PAC-12 defense is as bad as you think. Looking at the NCCA.com website, this is what I found when comparing PAC-12 schools vs other power conference schools (TOP 25) by defensive category:

FG % defense: 3 of 7 Power Conference Teams in TOP 25 are PAC-12 schools
Scoring defense: 1 of 5 Power Conference Teams in TOP 25 are PAC-12 schools
3-pt defense %: 0 of 5 Power Conference Teams in TOP 25 are PAC-12 schools
Defensive Rebound/game: 4 of 16 Power Conference Teams in TOP 25 are PAC-12 schools
Steals/game: 1 of 6 Power Conference Teams in TOP 25 are PAC-12 schools
Turnovers forced/game: 0 of 7 Power Conference Teams in TOP 25 are PAC-12 schools

So not consistently top or bottom vs other Power Conference schools, but reasonable representation of PAC-12 in defensive categories
 
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I don't know that the PAC-12 defense is as bad as you think.
You may be right. I was just going on eyeball assessments of the games I’ve managed to see replays of. I was unimpressed by Colorado and USC and a few other middle of the pack teams. But this was certainly not a scientific analysis.
 
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Looking at just a few examples, seems like players at UCLA can make big sophomore jumps (see Billings, Onyenwere, a lot of the sophs on this year's team)...but maybe level out after that. Jordin Canada did become a decent shooter by the time she graduated, though who knows who much of that was Close.
I don't think the sophmores made much of a jump on this year's UCLA team. They are just more highly rated so people are talking about them more and some are getting more playing time. Eye test wise and state wise they seem about the same to me to be completely honest. I was really high on UCLA early season (similar to last year) but now that we are at the end of January their shooting seems to have gotten worse and everything else is about the same so they aren't quite as impressive to me. But who knows theyll probably end up national champions after I've talked all this nonsense.
 

nwhoopfan

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I find this comment funny now after the South Carolina men's team beat Kentucky last night in part due to pace of play. Kentucky likes to play fast but we made them defend us for 30 seconds each possession which then made them uncharacteristically tired and sloppy on offense, and prevented them from gaining any sense of offensive rhythm. Conversation about pace were the highlight of the halftime report as well as the post game conversations. South Carolina dictating the pace of play led to a better defensive performance.
Okay, I very much oversimplified. Let me try again. The idea is to score more points than your opponent. There are different strategies and different philosophies on how to accomplish this. Getting your opponent to play in a manner that is not how they want to play, and frustrating them, isn't certainly one of those ways.
 
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I find this comment funny now after the South Carolina men's team beat Kentucky last night in part due to pace of play. Kentucky likes to play fast but we made them defend us for 30 seconds each possession which then made them uncharacteristically tired and sloppy on offense, and prevented them from gaining any sense of offensive rhythm. Conversation about pace were the highlight of the halftime report as well as the post game conversations. South Carolina dictating the pace of play led to a better defensive performance.

Usually the better team benefits from pace.

But good defensive teams generally don't give up that many points in transition and are generally good on first actions.
 

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