So a winning season would be a surprise to everyone in year 4 of HCRE2.0 when 7 of the 2020 opponents are ranked 106 or worst in 2019 (out of 500 NCAA football teams including Division III). Not one of 2020 opponents is ranked in the top 30 in 2019; can the schedule get any easier without dropping to FCS?
Rule # 1 in hiring a college head football coach to win games: Do not hire a coach with a losing career head coaching record. Rule # 2: reread rule # 1.
In the coaches poll, Virginia is #25 and Indiana is #29 this year. And, UConn is playing 5 P5 schools in 2020 which is more than they have played in years which excites me.
I think the 2020 schedule is somewhat easier, but there is substantial volatility in the year to year rankings of mid tier P5, G5, and FCS teams. For example, Army was ranked (Sagarin) 44 in 2018, but 101 in 2019. Middle Tennessee was ranked 122 in 2019, but 91 in 2018.
Another way to look at the schedule using Sagarin rankings:
Top 60 opponents: 2019 schedule: 4. 2020 schedule: 4
Rankings 135 and over: 2019 schedule: 3. 2020 schedule: 3
Illinois in both seasons: 2019 schedule: 1. 2020 schedule: 1
The last 4 games:
2019: Temple, Tulane, USF, and Houston
2020: Army, Middle Tennessee, Liberty, San Jose St.
For the last 4, 2019 was more difficult, but USF and Houston were down last year and so were Army and Middle Tennessee.
Here's an even crazier observation. If UConn is playing 5 or 6 P5 schools per year and a couple of the decent G5s, they have a better chance (still none) of making the CFP than they would in the AAC.