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Too early 2018-19 Rankings

bballnut90

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Question? Are these rankings based on talent or teams that has coaches and talent that could reach the FF?


I pick rankings based off who I think will have the best team next year, definitely accounting for who is coaching too. Otherwise Tennessee would be a top 10 team if we’re just going off roster talent.
 
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I pick rankings based off who I think will have the best team next year, definitely accounting for who is coaching too. Otherwise Tennessee would be a top 10 team if we’re just going off roster talent.

Hmm interesting... seems to me you have Miss St high on your ranking list, you see them as a good team next year? Or is it based on McCowan and Vic?
 
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Hmm interesting... seems to me you have Miss St high on your ranking list, you see them as a good team next year? Or is it based on McCowan and Vic?

Still plenty of time/room for you to enter the fray with your prediction. :D
 

Sluconn Husky

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If Geno somehow wins fewer than 30 games next year, it’ll be his worst coaching job ever. UCONN has the talent to win the championship, and has the talent to go undefeated if MW/CW/ONO make strides. Going undefeated is not likely, but it is much more likely than winning fewer than 30 games next season.

Historically, UCONN hasn’t had a “down” season since 2004-05, when they lost the best player in the history of the program. Results weren’t that crazy different compared to 2003-04. You guys have lost the 2016 class and almost went undefeated, you loss TASS and nearly went undefeated, you lost Maya and got back to a Final Four, etc. Losing Gabby/Nurse/Stevens is far from the biggest loss endured by Geno, and I don’t think it’s going to be the most impactful. UCONN might lose a regular season game (or 2) next year, but anyone who doesn’t think the Huskies will be strongly in the hunt for a championship next season just isn’t being realistic.

If UConn goes undefeated with a team whose biggest post presence is an undersized small forward, and who has no obvious choice for starting 2-guard or bench production, it'll be his best coaching performance ever.

BTW, you left out Baylor in your teams of contenders. Cox could be a POY challenger and Brown certainly will be. Two talented sophomores that actually got time in big moments this year (Richards, Morris) plus a healthy Chou who can really shoot give them a top-5 team. Add in the #1 rated class with multiple, potential impact players (Decosta, Egbo) and their upside is enormous.
 

bballnut90

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If UConn goes undefeated with a team whose biggest post presence is an undersized small forward, and who has no obvious choice for starting 2-guard or bench production, it'll be his best coaching performance ever.

BTW, you left out Baylor in your teams of contenders. Cox could be a POY challenger and Brown certainly will be. Two talented sophomores that actually got time in big moments this year (Richards, Morris) plus a healthy Chou who can really shoot give them a top-5 team. Add in the #1 rated class with multiple, potential impact players (Decosta, Egbo) and their upside is enormous.


Your biggest post presence will be 6-4 ONO, a top 5 recruit and elite post prospect. You also have Collier who is a 6-1 PF with long arms and does a terrific job inside. No, there isn't an elite 6-5+ shot blocker or an upperclassman the caliber of McCowan, Turner, or Brown...but the post presence is much better than you're indicating.

As far as the 2-guard spot or bench production, you have the #1 recruit from 2017 who will likely fill one of those spots, and the #1 recruit from 2018 to fill the other.

As ND showed this year, you don't need more than 6-7 rotation players to win a title.
 

bballnut90

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Hmm interesting... seems to me you have Miss St high on your ranking list, you see them as a good team next year? Or is it based on McCowan and Vic?

Yes, I think they'll be good once again. McCowan is an absolute beast inside who will clean up a lot of her team's mistakes, and Vic does more with less than just about any other coach in the country. I also liked what I saw from Holmes and Danbury in the post season...both are very good defensively.

I wouldn't be surprised if they have a similar season to the one South Carolina did, where the team is built around an elite front court player but the offense struggles shooting from the perimeter. The elite player also anchors a good defensive team, so even if the offense isn't there, they'll be able to stay in games.
 
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Yes, I think they'll be good once again. McCowan is an absolute beast inside who will clean up a lot of her team's mistakes, and Vic does more with less than just about any other coach in the country. I also liked what I saw from Holmes and Danbury in the post season...both are very good defensively.

I wouldn't be surprised if they have a similar season to the one South Carolina did, where the team is built around an elite front court player but the offense struggles shooting from the perimeter. The elite player also anchors a good defensive team, so even if the offense isn't there, they'll be able to stay in games.

To each is own I guess. While I don't particularly think they'll be bad I don't see them being as good as SC and making the E8 but I guess that's just me. McCowan and Bibby are bright spots but they're guard play will be considerably worst than SC's this past season. Interested to see where Vic takes them. He is a fine coach so I respect him to do a good job. Top 10? Nope, Top 15 maybe just maybe.
 

Sluconn Husky

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Your biggest post presence will be 6-4 ONO, a top 5 recruit and elite post prospect. You also have Collier who is a 6-1 PF with long arms and does a terrific job inside. No, there isn't an elite 6-5+ shot blocker or an upperclassman the caliber of McCowan, Turner, or Brown...but the post presence is much better than you're indicating.

As far as the 2-guard spot or bench production, you have the #1 recruit from 2017 who will likely fill one of those spots, and the #1 recruit from 2018 to fill the other.

As ND showed this year, you don't need more than 6-7 rotation players to win a title.

Not sure why you seem to be so sold on Nelson-Ododa's impact as a freshmen. Will she play more than 15 minutes a game? What percentage of those will be prior to outcome being decided?

Collier has had significant issues at times in the post defensively if you'll recall her foul trouble issues of her sophomore season.

To the guards, Walker isn't one. It'll be interesting who gets that position considering that fact. And while I like Christyn Williams I don't put my hopes in freshmen as mentioned.

Notre Dame counted on zero freshmen this year. You are suggesting UConn will have to count on two. Of the Irish's best players this year, one was an underclassmen. UConn would have to count on as many as four (ONO, CW, Walker, Coombs) to have any chance. Those are two very different equations.
 
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If UConn goes undefeated with a team whose biggest post presence is an undersized small forward, and who has no obvious choice for starting 2-guard or bench production, it'll be his best coaching performance ever.

BTW, you left out Baylor in your teams of contenders. Cox could be a POY challenger and Brown certainly will be. Two talented sophomores that actually got time in big moments this year (Richards, Morris) plus a healthy Chou who can really shoot give them a top-5 team. Add in the #1 rated class with multiple, potential impact players (Decosta, Egbo) and their upside is enormous.
Ummmm I’m pretty sure we have a “post presence” that was good enough to be chosen to the USA National squad. The only other two in college basketball are Durr & Lou. Pheesa is a mismatch. Too quick for big posts & too strong for small posts. She has a 6’7” wing span so not worried about her in the post. She does need to put on some weight this summer but still not worried about our post presence.
 
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Not sure why you seem to be so sold on Nelson-Ododa's impact as a freshmen. Will she play more than 15 minutes a game? What percentage of those will be prior to outcome being decided?

Collier has had significant issues at times in the post defensively if you'll recall her foul trouble issues of her sophomore season.

To the guards, Walker isn't one. It'll be interesting who gets that position considering that fact. And while I like Christyn Williams I don't put my hopes in freshmen as mentioned.

Notre Dame counted on zero freshmen this year. You are suggesting UConn will have to count on two. Of the Irish's best players this year, one was an underclassmen. UConn would have to count on as many as four (ONO, CW, Walker, Coombs) to have any chance. Those are two very different equations.
I agree with you on the freshman being big question marks. I do think they will be forced to contribute as wasn’t the case in the past. We just need 1 to hit & 1 to kind of hit tbh.

We will have to keep Pheesa & Lou out of foul trouble so I see more Zone defense against big teams.
 
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First you start of with two All American players in Samuelson and Collier. Dangerfield is a good PG who will step up some more next season. I think Megan Walker will do a Kaila Charles and move from a role player to a main cog in UConn's offense. I am very, very high on Williams. She is a very special player. Other than dunking I don't know much about Nelson-Ododa. She's a key because she's the only player with height on the team other than Samuelson. It will be interesting what the OOC schedule for UConn is this year and how the team will perform in those games.

KLS and Napheesa are certainly excellent, though Napheesa didn't match her AA year this year. Yes, good point guard. But we're looking at a starting line-up including two freshmen, neither of which has been tried in big games. And that means that the one possibly reliable bench player is Walker, who might be better, or might be more like she was this year, which was just not up to the hype, especially on defense. And let's recall that ONO is coming off a major knee injury. We've been lucky in the past, especially with Gabby, who suffered two season-ending knee injuries in high school, then avoided a recurrence in college. But can we really expect ONO to play 30 minutes or more a game against top teams in the non-conference schedule?

UConn is looking at another small line-up, but this time without a seasoned post. And without a surprise post in the form of Gabby. The rest of the bench? Can we really expect top-tier performance from them? We can wish and hope, as the song goes. But in terms of helping defeat non-conference majors, probably not.

Baylor is loaded. Mississippi State brings back McCowen. Oregon has almost everyone back from a team of mostly sophomores this year. Louisville is maturing, and brings back most players. Yes, Walz has been unable to beat UConn in the past, but Coach Geno took almost a decade before his teams were ready to challenge the best.

In short, we have far more question marks and obvious weaknesses than strengths relative to the other top teams next year. Great post players are a must to win championships, and the jury is most definitely out on that one. Indeed, with Breanna, we had Stokes. Also had Steph for backup for part of that. Next year, we'll have zero backup for ONO.

Dicey. Very dicey.
 

Sluconn Husky

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Ummmm I’m pretty sure we have a “post presence” that was good enough to be chosen to the USA National squad. The only other two in college basketball are Durr & Lou. Pheesa is a mismatch. Too quick for big posts & too strong for small posts. She has a 6’7” wing span so not worried about her in the post. She does need to put on some weight this summer but still not worried about our post presence.

One player does not make a team. She's not Brittney Griner. One post player. One who said during the year that teams were focusing more on her down low after her sophomore season. Well, what kind of attention do you think she's going to get next year with no Williams or Stevens around? And she's extremely undersized to defend the post as Geno himself has mentioned repeatedly.
 

Sluconn Husky

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We will have to keep Pheesa & Lou out of foul trouble so I see more Zone defense against big teams.

Well that'll be interesting because Geno doesn't like to play zone and all his best defenses have been man-to-man.
 
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This is for END of the year right? Here you go:

1. UConn
2. Baylor
3. Notre Dame
4. Oregon
5. Louisville
6. Maryland
7. Texas
8. Stanford
9. Oregon St
10. South Carolina
 
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Well that'll be interesting because Geno doesn't like to play zone and all his best defenses have been man-to-man.
It doesn’t matter if he likes it, he will do it out of necessity just as he did this year.
 
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One player does not make a team. She's not Brittney Griner. One post player. One who said during the year that teams were focusing more on her down low after her sophomore season. Well, what kind of attention do you think she's going to get next year with no Williams or Stevens around? And she's extremely undersized to defend the post as Geno himself has mentioned repeatedly.
You clearly didn’t watch many games, just read stats on her comparison from last year to this year. Her lower production in points & rebounds was because of Z being implemented into the offense. She was on the perimeter a lot more. She will be getting far more touches next year inside, just as she did her sophomore year. There’s only so many points & rebounds out there for everyone. You realize Lou’s & Gabbys ppg dropped significantly as well, right? Along with Gabby’s rebounds per game.
 
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KLS and Napheesa are certainly excellent, though Napheesa didn't match her AA year this year. Yes, good point guard. But we're looking at a starting line-up including two freshmen, neither of which has been tried in big games. And that means that the one possibly reliable bench player is Walker, who might be better, or might be more like she was this year, which was just not up to the hype, especially on defense. And let's recall that ONO is coming off a major knee injury. We've been lucky in the past, especially with Gabby, who suffered two season-ending knee injuries in high school, then avoided a recurrence in college. But can we really expect ONO to play 30 minutes or more a game against top teams in the non-conference schedule?

UConn is looking at another small line-up, but this time without a seasoned post. And without a surprise post in the form of Gabby. The rest of the bench? Can we really expect top-tier performance from them? We can wish and hope, as the song goes. But in terms of helping defeat non-conference majors, probably not.

Baylor is loaded. Mississippi State brings back McCowen. Oregon has almost everyone back from a team of mostly sophomores this year. Louisville is maturing, and brings back most players. Yes, Walz has been unable to beat UConn in the past, but Coach Geno took almost a decade before his teams were ready to challenge the best.

In short, we have far more question marks and obvious weaknesses than strengths relative to the other top teams next year. Great post players are a must to win championships, and the jury is most definitely out on that one. Indeed, with Breanna, we had Stokes. Also had Steph for backup for part of that. Next year, we'll have zero backup for ONO.

Dicey. Very dicey.
Again, KLS & Gabby’s ppg Los dropped significantly because of Z being implemented. Pheesa will have a huge year next year. Keep in mind she averaged 20ppg in the tournament & over 18ppg the 2nd half of the year even with Gabby & Z getting their touches.
 

Sluconn Husky

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You clearly didn’t watch many games, just read stats on her comparison from last year to this year. Her lower production in points & rebounds was because of Z being implemented into the offense. She was on the perimeter a lot more. She will be getting far more touches next year inside, just as she did her sophomore year. There’s only so many points & rebounds out there for everyone. You realize Lou’s & Gabbys ppg dropped significantly as well, right? Along with Gabby’s rebounds per game.


I watched every game this season, some multiple times. Collier and Stevens didn't play together all that much and when they did I thought they were quite good together. Collier would generally play the first 8-12 minutes before Stevens even saw the floor, and the two were often subbed for one another. Stevens also finished out a bunch of games with the bench players while Collier sat.

Collier wasn't the same player this year. You don't have to look at the stats to realize that. Gabby took fewer shots which is certainly in part because of Stevens' addition. Her rebounding rate was nearly identical to last year though I think everyone watching would also agree that Gabby didn't have as great a season this year.

Samuelson's average was down about 1.5 points over the same amount of minutes. She just took fewer shots per game. But in her case nobody watching would suggest she didn't have a better overall season than the year prior.
 
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You clearly didn’t watch many games, just read stats on her comparison from last year to this year. Her lower production in points & rebounds was because of Z being implemented into the offense. She was on the perimeter a lot more. She will be getting far more touches next year inside, just as she did her sophomore year. There’s only so many points & rebounds out there for everyone. You realize Lou’s & Gabbys ppg dropped significantly as well, right? Along with Gabby’s rebounds per game.
One point I think Sluconn is trying to make is that you guys don't have any other proven scorers in the post. So Napheesa will be getting all the attention
 
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I watched every game this season, some multiple times. Collier and Stevens didn't play together all that much and when they did I thought they were quite good together. Collier would generally play the first 8-12 minutes before Stevens even saw the floor, and the two were often subbed for one another. Stevens also finished out a bunch of games with the bench players while Collier sat.

Collier wasn't the same player this year. You don't have to look at the stats to realize that. Gabby took fewer shots which is certainly in part because of Stevens' addition. Her rebounding rate was nearly identical to last year though I think everyone watching would also agree that Gabby didn't have as great a season this year.

Samuelson's average was down about 1.5 points over the same amount of minutes. She just took fewer shots per game. But in her case nobody watching would suggest she didn't have a better overall season than the year prior.
Stevens actually usually subbed in for Williams first. So she played with Pheesa quite a bit. I agree she wasn’t the same player early on because she was on the perimeter more with Z inside but she made the adjustment nicely down the stretch.

Lou’s numbers went from 20ppg to 17.4ppg. Barely had more rebounds & assists (only .6) per game than last year. Yes, she had a better year than last & yes Pheesa didn’t have as good of a year but I think people, as yourself (surprising giving it seems as though you maybe from St. Louis) criticized her because of her historic season as a sophomore. She didn’t have to do as much this year because Crystal, Kia & Z we far more of a threat to score than last year.

I think you will be one that will be silent when she is scoring over 20ppg next year & averaging 8-10 rebounds.
 
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Sluconn Husky

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Stevens actually usually subbed in for Williams first. So she played with Pheesa quite a bit.

Disagree with this. I'll have to look up the numbers, but I know Stevens subbed in for Collier a lot in the 1st quarter, and also that she played with the bench to close out a lot of games. Stevens only averaged 20 minutes per game overall so the first 6-10 minutes of each half and lots of mop-up duty takes a huge chunk of that.
 
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Disagree with this. I'll have to look up the numbers, but I know Stevens subbed in for Collier a lot in the 1st quarter, and also that she played with the bench to close out a lot of games. Stevens only averaged 20 minutes per game overall so the first 6-10 minutes of each half and lots of mop-up duty takes a huge chunk of that.
Agree with you there, she did play the first 5-7 mins of the 4th quarter, while starters other than Kia usually sat. Then Batouly or Lexi would come in to finish up.
 

Plebe

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At beginning of season:
  1. Notre Dame
  2. Louisville
  3. Baylor
  4. Oregon
  5. UConn
  6. Oregon State
  7. Mississippi State
  8. Maryland
  9. Texas
  10. South Carolina
  11. Stanford
 

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